OT: USMNT Road to Qatar: The Last Stop

Edit: We qualified! Final World Cup groups:

• Group A: Qatar - Ecuador - Senegal - Netherlands
• Group B: England - Iran - USA – Wales/Scotland/Ukraine
• Group C: Argentina – Saudi Arabia - Mexico – Poland
• Group D: France – Peru/Australia/UAE - Denmark - Tunisia
• Group E: Spain – Costa Rica/NZ - Germany - Japan
• Group F: Belgium - Canada - Morocco - Croatia
• Group G: Brazil - Serbia - Switzerland - Cameroon
• Group H: Portugal - Ghana - Uruguay – South Korea

This is it folks. WCQ is coming to a close. The USMNT is in good position, but with a difficult set of fixtures coming up, certainly nothing is guaranteed.

Schedule
Thursday, 3/24 - @ Mexico, 10:00 PM - Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico (Paramount +)
Sunday, 3/27 - v. Panama, 7:00 PM - Exploria Stadium, Orlando, FL (FS1)
Wednesday, 3/30 - @ Costa Rica, 9:05 PM - Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica (Paramount+)

Opponents
Mexico in the Azteca. Not going to be easy. In terms of qualification, this match is relatively unimportant. With a short turnaround before the Panama match (the most important of the remaining) and difficult high-altitude conditions at the Azteca, it will be interesting to see if Berhalter decides to rest some first-choice players in Mexico City. Many have suggested running out a high-energy, physcial lineup to try and ugly our way to a draw and keep players like Adams (on a yellow card), Weah, Pulisic fresh for Panama. In the end, neither side really needs 3 points here - Mexico has Honduras and El Salvador as the other remaining fixtures. I expect both teams will scrap and play hard, but I think both sides will be satisfied and back off a little if the score is still level around 70 minutes.

Panama is the most important match we will play since the fateful day in Trinidad 4+ years ago. Panama opens the window with a home match against last-place Honduras, so they should be hot on our heels if we don't beat Mexico. I won't go into the various permutations yet because there are too many with 3 matches remaining, but suffice it to say that not winning this match would put a lot of pressure on an away win at Costa Rica (we've never done that before, BTW). USMNT has been very good at home and I expect a raucous crowd to push them over the line. But make no mistake, this is likely (barring a win at Mexico or other favorable results elsewhere) a must-win game to avoid the 4th place draw into the playoff with New Zealand.

Costa Rica has come on strong in recent times, surging up to 1 point behind Panama. We will know more about their chances after their first match against Canada, but they still have a chance at automatic qualification in 3rd place if we don't take care of business. I think their more realistic goal will be to pass Panama to grab 4th, but they are an experienced team with a tough home-field advantage. If Panama falters (they have Canada on the final matchday) and Costa Rica continues their strong run of form, we could be looking at a battle for 3rd place (and automatic qualification) in San Jose.

Table

1. Canada- 25
2. USA - 21 (+9 GD)
3. Mexico - 21 (+6 GD)
4. Panama - 17
5. Costa Rica - 16
6. El Salvador- 9
7. Jamaica - 7
8. Honduras - 3

Top 3 automatically qualify for 2022 World Cup, 4th place qualifies for intercontinental playoff vs. Oceania (likely New Zealand) in Qatar in June.

Injuries

• UPDATE: Sergino Dest subbed off today v. Galatasaray...looks like a hamstring
• Weston McKennie - Foot injury picked up in February for Juventus. Out for the season (very sad face).
• Gio Reyna - Reinjured after returning from long layoff stemming from injury sustained in September WCQ window. Recently returned to matchday squads with Dortmund. I think he will make the roster but he may be on a pitch count.
• Chris Richards - Foot injury picked up in last window. Has not returned to training with Hoffenheim. Unlikely to be included in the squad.
• Matt Turner - Foot injury picked up in preseason with New England. Not expected to be on the roster.
• Zack Steffen - Been out for a month with a shoulder injury, but recently returned to training. Barring setbacks, would expect him to be on the roster.

Hopefully none picked up (or worsened) this weekend!

Roster

𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐣𝐨𝐛.🇺🇸Gregg Berhalter selects 27 players for the final three 2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifying matches » https://t.co/XUoH6QlfKW#USMNT x @BioSteelSports pic.twitter.com/yv8xUkZM1U— U.S. Soccer MNT (@USMNT) March 17, 2022

- Bello added to the roster to replace Dest (injured)
- Aaronson injured will not play (no replacement announced yet)
- Cannon COVID positive, Shaq Moore will be available for Panama/CR matches

Roster is set to be announced on SportsCenter at 6PM tomorrow (Thursday, March 17th)

My guess below. Honestly, I don't know, man. It's so hard to predict these with Gregg apparently.

GKs: Steffen, Johnson, Ethan Horvath
FBs: Dest, A. Robinson, Yedlin, Cannon, Bello (IDK, but I feel like there should be another LB), Scally/Shaq Moore?
CBs: M. Robinson, Brooks, Zimmerman, McKenzie
MFs: Adams, Musah, Lletget, Acosta, De La Torre, Busio, Roldan
Wings: Reyna, Pulisic, Aaronson, Weah, Arriola, Jordan Morris
STs: Pepi, Pefok, Ferreira

Just missed: Gabe Slonina (GK), Joe Scaly (FB), Aaron Long/Tim Ream (CB), Paxton Pomykal (MF), Josh Sargent/Gyasi Zardes (ST)

I usually try to limit to 28 because I don't think he's ever called in more than that. Ethan Horvath has started getting minutes for Nottingham Forest recently, just in time. Slonina is one for the future, but he might be called in just for experience. I would bring a 5th CB, but Berhalter doesn't seem to mind bringing only 4 CBs. Pomykal is off to a hot start in MLS, but it's unlikely he's involved for the first time with the senior team in this crucial window. But I like him and he's good. No real snubs on the wings. Zardes has lost his starting spot in Columbus to Miguel Berry and is reportedly on the trading block. Sargent is playing better, but I just don't see the point in calling in 4 strikers. I'd be fine if he's called though. Pefok is on a hot streak and I don't see any way he can be left off right now.

Summary
Not much left to say. 4 points would all but guarantee us 3rd place at least, so that's the target and is very doable, even likely. 3 points, as long as it's against Panama, would likely be enough, but we may drop to 4th. If I find a good article about all the possible permutations, I'll put it here. I fully expect us to get an automatic qualifying spot, but they've got to go out there and do it. Let's hope for a party in Orlando.

One last thing before I go - as stressful as this might be, I personally am going to try to savor these matches. With the expanded WC in 2026 and beyond, not to mention USA, Canada, and Mexico automatically qualify as host nations in 2026, this may be the last time that these games are really all that meaningful, at least for a while. Although the WC is the ultimate goal and those are the important matches, I really think the whole WCQ process is fun and provides many opportunities for discussion and benchmarking of the team's progress. Here's hoping we all enjoy the final day infinitely more than last time.