Bored so wanted to look at the how the roster will change from this to next year, and what kind of improvement if any we can expect. It's been speculated that next year will be when the most roster attrition takes place, so I wanted to see how many players are leaving and how many could/should be replaced by the portal.
Not 100% sure but I believe we had 1-2 open scholarships at the start of this season. Looking at the roster I believe we will lose around 18-21 seniors and 5-10 current players to the transfer portal. I'll estimate on the high end of both.
Estimated turnover: 20 (Graduating) + 9 (Portal) = 29 New spots
2023 Class is currently at 19, I believe it will finish around 22.
Estimated Portal Scholarships:
28 - 22 = 6 (new spots) + 2 (currently open)
= 8 transfer portal pickups
My positions of need breakdown for transfer players:
1 - OL
1 - QB
2 - WR
2 - DE
2 - DT
1 - S
Position changes:
Givens -> OL
Black -> WR
2023 Depth Chart should look something like this:
LT - Clements - Schick - Dickson
LG - Hansen - B. Moore - Miletic
C - Hollifield - Ghannam - Garrett
RG - K. Moore - Meadows - Jones
RT - Chaplain - Portal - Givens
QB- Portal - Wells - Farrell
RB- Thomas - King - Duke - Christian
WR - Portal - Gosnell
WR - Portal - Moss
Slot - Jones/Lofton/Dal. Wright - Gosnell
TE - Wright/Gallo - St Germain
DE- Nelson - Portal - Moyston/Burgos
DT*- Fuga - Portal - Madison
DT*- Portal - Pene - Law
DE- Portal - Payne/McCray - Carroll
*If Kendricks and or Pollard come back they'll start
WLB- Lawson - McDonald - M. Johnson
MLB- Keller - Stephens - W. Johnson
SLB- Jenkins - Lawson - Harvey (for Nickel)
CB- Strong - Chatman
S- Peoples - Hawkins - N. Johnson
S- Stroman - Portal - Hoyle
CB- Delane - Harvey - C. Johnson
Disclaimer: Some of these guys could end up hitting the portal, and some of the guys not listed could end up still being on here. But if the portal guys pan out, I see this group as a solid 6-7 win team with better depth than we're accustomed to. If any key starters transfer out we could regress to a 3-5 win team again.
I think 7 wins in year 3 is a realistic expectation for this staff. As long as we show steady improvement I'm fine. And as long as Pry holds his staff to a high standard and isn't afraid to make changes if it isn't met. I'm cautiously optimistic about making a bowl next year.
Comments
Love the VT tradition of family legacies, but damn, how many kids do the Portal's have?
And I thought Mama Fuller was busy?!
Isnt there a limit on number of kids from portal you can take?
there's a combined limit of new additions = transfers and freshmen together
It's typically 25 total but I think you can offset that some if you have guys transfer out too. But that 25 initial counter limit is waived for the next two seasons due to extra COVID eligibility really messing up roster numbers. Pry could majorly turn the roster over and hit the portal hard if he wants to.
Correct, no limit on the number of people signed for the next two years. Still have to be within the 85 scholarships rule.
Article from the NCAA
Portal projections are the ceiling and the roof
If there's a cant-miss qb in the portal, then obviously I hope we get him. But otherwise, I think Wells will be QB1 until he exhausts his eligibility or Farrell passes him on the depth chart. Wells isn't a perfect QB but he's got some good traits and could be a 3-year starter for us/ 5-year starter overall in Pry's third year here. That kind of continuity at QB can provide a lot of value. I wouldn't put him at QB2 for a marginal upgrade. It'd need to be an obvious and clear upgrade, and I don't see a QB of that caliber lining up transfer in and play in this offense.
Also I think Wells rocketing every passing combined with the worst group of hands that VT has seen in its receiving corp isn't a great combo. If we can fix one of those we d be alit better off.
If we can upgrade in the portal we need to. Worst case bring someone in to duke it out over spring practice. Maybe it pushes Wells to be better or maybe someone better beats him out
We need a WR who can take the top off a defense. I'd be spying the portal hard for a WR.
Is there a RS-F sitting in Merryman who could do that next year. Bradshaw? Holloway? What about a recruit? Lovett??
Oline needs serious progress, but it may not come in the form of a new blood. Maybe some Wisky transfers, but another year under Rudolph may be what the doctor ordered.
Holloway could be that guy but he needs to put on more good weight.
To put it this way - Tre was 6'2", 190 his senior year. Holloway is also 6'2" but was 170 in high school and listed at 180 right now.
Baylor will be good too eventually. And whichever of Mitchell, Williams and Heath end up playing receiver will have the athleticism to be really freakin good
It will be interesting to see if Clements starts next year. His play this year has been overall mediocre at best, and poor at times.
Yeah, he has definitely stood out in a not-so-good way
Yeah watching him struggle I this new oline scheme makes me realize how much I just don't understand oline blocking schemes cause PFF and lots of us was high on his play last year. He is really struggling doing whatever is being asked of him.
Zone vs. Drive blocking instead of blocking whoever is in his zone he has a particular defender to block and depending on whatever shade or position his defender is in he may just not be good enough to block it well. If he is trying to block an inside shade out for a run off his left hip and cant get the guy turned out he's essentially just blocking the defender into the running gap
I have no idea why his pass blocking is such trash but I haven't watched any film and most of the live games I've watched he would make a great matador