In the UNC Post-Game commiseration thread, Fireman and GGC asked to take a look at Virginia's Top 10 recruits every year since 2016 (The Fu Era, if you will). I said it would take some time to get done, thinking I'd have it in time for ESD, but I got it done much earlier than anticipated, so without any further ado, let's get into the classes.
Author's Note: I am using the 247 in house rankings, not the composite nor Rivals.
First off, how many of the 60 recruits on the list achieved enough in college to go on to the NFL?
2016: 3
2017: 5
2018: 1
2019+: 1
That's 10 out of 60, for a 16% NFL sniff. 3 of them suited up in Maroon and Orange
Of the 60, how many were medically or academically retired from football before the end of their senior year?
As of this writing, 10, two Hokies on that list
How many were career backups?
35
How many were starters?
25
How many transferred to P5 programs?
6
How many transferred to G5 schools?
4
How many transferred to FCS or lower schools?
3
Recent Contributions:
Only 7 recruits in the last three classes have gone on to become regular starters. 3 in that same timeframe have yet to play a snap.
Other tidbits:
The lowest rated players were given a rating of 88
A total of 7 had ratings of lower than 90
49 were rated between 97-90 (4*)
4 were rated 98 or higher (5*), both who finished their eligibility made it into the pro's but only one was drafted.
Out of State Storylines:
FSU (4): 1 to NFL, 2 to Marshall, 1 has not played
OSU (5): 1 to JMU, 1 to Tennessee State, 2 backups, 1 starter
UNC (3): 1 to Rutgers, 1 to Auburn, 1 starter
PSU (7): 2 to NFL, 1 to ODU, 2 retirement, 1 backup, 1 starter
Clem (4): 1 to VT, 1 starter, 2 backups
ND (3): 1 to NFL, 1 retirement, 1 backup
Comments
VA is down whether we like it or not. The 757 especially. We have to pull players from MD NC GA and FL and can't completely rely on VA even when/if we do repair the relationships lost with Fuente
what data here leads you to that conclusion?
The 17'-19' classes in the Top 10 have largely all been busts or medically retired with the exception of YGM, James Mitchell, and Brandon Smith. Jury is still kind of out on the 20-22 classes.
St. John Bosco came all the way from Cali to play VB's premier team in Oscar Smith and beat them 49-0, yeah they're a private school who recruit kids but it's just the gap we're talking about. In MD schools like SFA, DeMatha, Good Counsel all producing talent
Not saying VA sucks but it won't be the bread and butter in was in the mid-00's. Yes win back the state, then try to pull from our neighbors as they've been so politely doing to us.
Outcomes don't necessarily say much about "talent", and I'm not really seeing a trend though -- 2017 was "down" but half of the top-10 made it to the nfl in some capacity? hard for me to lump in medical retirements with busts.
in 2019 you have Brandon Smith plus a starter at Clemson and a multiyear starter in the SEC. 2020-2021 classes are definitely incomplete, as both of them could just be rFr this year -- look at Chris Tyree: he's listed as "career backup" here but he's tied for first in touches (rush+rec) on ND.
Definitely agree we need to look at the footprint beyond the commonwealth though. Just don't think anything here supports that VA is "down". Mean and Median 247 scores are higher in 2018-2020 (93 and 93 respectively) than for 2016-2019 (~92 and 91, respectively).
Notre Dame doesn't post their depth chart in easy to find places so I had to rely on OurLads which has him as the #3 RB on the team.
I posted data like that a while ago here. Basically the highest rated recruits have moved from VA beach area to nova. If I find it I'll post the link.
i did this about a year ago -- 757 perhaps isn't as consistent as it once was, but i don't think it's "down". I think people saw a relatively weak in-state class in 2018 (composite) and ran with the narrative since
https://www.thekeyplay.com/comment/1090649#comment-1090649
It wasn't that VA was down as a whole it was where is the talent and so much has moved to nova compared to what it once was.
I've posted about this plenty in the past, but the sequester and loss of jobs in the 757 early 2010s shifted Virginias demographics. Much more population growth in the Nova suburbs, and the more people with kids playing football, the more likely you are to have some stars.
If you want to galaxy brain fix the programs talent issues, go to your local zoning board and encourage them to build more housing, especially townhouses/starter home style stuff that young families can afford to move into. Then drop off some free VT gear when your new neighbors move in.
Virginia needs more shitty Ryan Homes subdivisions like I need another hole in my head
But they create a lot of jobs for home repair people and handymen
My house that was built by Ryan was fantasticly built. It's those NVHomes and VanMeter ones that suck!
yet 757 continues to yield ~about as many blue chip recruits relative to the rest of VA as it always has 🤷♂️ granted i didn't look at the 2023 class
1/10 is 757 which again is anecdotal. Good players come from the 757 no doubt, it's just not the end all be all in VA anymore
I hate to ask more of you, but could you post a table of the data you looked up? Name, year, rating, school(s) attended, draft pick, nfl career as columns?
Sorry, I'm not sure how to get it to resize properly.
Awesome. Thanks.
Thanks for doing the work and compiling this.
Midnight posting will get after ya
Deleted
I will say Virginia is starting to get better recruiting wise again. But it's more of the 804 than the 757
I would think it's more cyclical than trend. Some years the 757, some years the 804 and even the 540 might have some good years.
Someone with more free time or an interest in statistical analysis should pull the demographic data by region, and see if there's anything that predicts recruiting success better than "number of young families with kids playing football."
This mostly shows how hard it is for talented players to make it in the NFL.
It's ALWAYS a long shot, as injuries and life happens.
Thanks for putting this together. It highlights a lot of what we've all been saying. I love all you TKP nerds!
This helps shows why "winning back the state" and "walling off the border" are largely just empty slogans (although it also shows how much of a crap shoot recruiting is for everybody, not just VT).
Recruit the best players you can who fit your system and needs. Sure, all other things equal, geographically close is better than not geographically close. And Virginia - while not brimming with talent - is not a talent desert either. But it's fools gold in 2022 to think winning Virginia should be the number 1 recruiting priority.
Fortunately I think (hope) for all of the lip service, while Pry isn't ignoring it, he also isn't falling into the trap of thinking Virginia talent is the magic pill for VT.
It's not about the top 10, though. Winning the state is about all the fill in players we have had on our rosters. Grimm, Chancellor, the Martin Brothers, the Edmunds Brothers, Sam Rogers, etc. Role players who make major contributions as coachable 3 ⭐ talents.
Just look at the games this weekend. It kills me to see Jahad Carter locking down the secondary at Syracuse. Isaiah Moore manhandled us Thursday night. Moore didn't even get an offer from VT!!! No, our staff was too busy looking at 3 ⭐ talent in TX. Foolish.
Duke, WF, Pitt, Murrland, etc, are all littered with 3 ⭐ Virginia talent we didn't even sniff or lost recruiting battles to, bc of the ineptitude of our last coaching staff.
I was a substitute teacher in his class on NSD the day Carter announced his commitment.
He wrote VT on his paper before he turned it in.