HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: Louisville (4-3) at Virginia Tech (5-3) 4PM ACCN

HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: Louisville (4-3) at Virginia Tech (5-3) 4PM ACCN

ACC Opener‼️🆚 Louisville🕓 4PM📺 ACCN🟠 Wear orange🤝 @shelormotormile #StoneByStone pic.twitter.com/inzvyKBA4u— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) December 3, 2023

Louisville (4-3)
At Virginia Tech (5-3)
December 3rd, 2023
Cassell Coliseum
4 p.m. ET
ACCN
Virginia Tech Sports Network

ACCN
Play-by-Play: Connor Onion
Analyst: Josh Pastner

Local Radio
Virginia Tech Sports Network
Play-by-Play: Zach Mackey
Analyst: Mike Burnop

Current Spread: Hokies -13.5
Over/Under: -147.5

ACC Opener
The Hokies start ACC play with Louisville coming to Cassell Coliseum. The Hokies return home for the first time in two weeks. The Louisville Cardinals squad comes in 4-3. This will be the 47th meeting between the Hokies and Louisville. The Hokies are 10-36 but come in winners of two in a row after last years win at Louisville 71-54, the Hokies first win there since 1990.

🟧 𝗢𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗢𝘂𝘁 🟧🔸 Wear orange tomorrow!🔸 Virginia529 Diaper Derby at halftime🔸 Bricks for Bacon in 2H🔸 Beat Louisville!#StoneByStone pic.twitter.com/gSaB7lwdiI— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) December 2, 2023

The Cardinals are coached by Kenny Payne, who is in his second season at Louisville. The Cardinals are 8-31 under Payne. They have already matched their season win total for last year. Louisville is his first head coaching job with assistant stops at Oregon, Kentucky and the New York Knicks. The Cardinals opened their season with a win over UMBC, then a loss to Chattanooga. They beat Coppin State before losing the first two games in their holiday tournament to Texas and Indiana. They escaped New Mexico State in Overtime and needed to come from behind to beat 2-7 Bellarmine.

Louisville signed the #6 recruiting class last season but lost the most impactful player, Trentyn Flowers, who opted to go pro in Australia. The remaining class led by center Dennis Evans added five new faces to the program. The Cardinals also added three transfers as Payne continued to overhaul the program. Amongst the newcomers, Skyy Clark from Illinois has had the most immediate impact but is joined by Tre White from USC in the starting five. Evans has started five of seven games but has had very little impact averaging about 9 mpg and less than two points per contest.

The Cardinals have five players averaging more than 20 mpg but only six average at least 10 mpg. Louisville does not appear to have any injuries coming into this game. The starting five are Clark, White, Michael James, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and either Evans or JJ Traynor as the fifth starter. Payne relies heavily on his starting five, who account for 72% of the teams minutes.

Louisville under Payne runs a variation of the Havoc defense, so expect to see a variety of press and trap situations from a man-to-man defensive base. Louisville so far this season though seems slow on getting in front of opposing teams, with opponents taking advantage of the Cardinals in the paint, shooting over 50%. Defensively they do contest the perimeter fairly well after a few lapses in their first couple games. Since the third game, they have held opponents under 30% in all five contests and under 18% in three games.

Offensively, the Cardinals rely on positionless motion basketball and Payne specifically said he does not want opponents to be able to predict what they will see which requires him to trust his players to make adjustments as needed with little input from the coaches. The starting guard duo drive the offense combining for over 30 points and ten rebounds. The team averages about 20 perimeter shots per game with four shooters shooting 30% or better but as a team they are averaging 28%.

They reach the free throw line at an incredible rate with three games over 30 attempts, topped by an insane 49 attempts in their overtime win over NMSU. 36 of their 90 points in that game came at the line. Opponents are getting to the line over 20 times though so that negates a possible huge advantage. Four of the six main contributors average over 2.6 fouls per contest.

Cardinals Backcourt

Skyy Clark
55 SO G 6-3 200
17.4 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.7 Ast

Tre White
22 SO G 6-7 210
14.9 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 1.3 Ast

Michael James
0 SO G 6-6 195
11.3 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 1.0 Ast

Ty-Laur Johnson
4 FR G 6-0 160
8.9 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 3.7 Ast

Curtis Williams
1 FR G 6-5 205
3.1 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast

Cardinals Frontcourt
JJ Traynor
12 SR F 6-8 200
10.4 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 0.1 Ast

Brandon Huntley-Hatfield
5 JR F 6-10 235
6.1 Pts, 9.0 Reb, 1.1 Ast

Dennis Evans
11 FR C 7-1 215
1.6 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.0 Ast

What to expect from Louisville?
The Cardinals will look to Clark first, second and third and then move the ball primarily to White if Clark cant get the shot. In the games they have lost, the duo have still gotten their numbers but opponents limited the rest of the lineup from scoring.

Clark is also averaging 6.4 free throw attempts per game. Scarier yet he is second on the team in attempts behind White's 7.6 attempts. Four the five starters are averaging at least 4.6 FTA per game. There was one significant outlier against NMSU but they take the ball to the rim hard and create opportunities for themselves. The Hokies need to be prepared for the constant cuts to the rim.

Louisville just seems a step slow in their defense which leaves slashing off ball players open consistently under the basket. Opponents may struggle from the perimeter but so far Chattanooga and Texas are the only opponents that have shot better than 30% from outside on the season. Its difficult to judge if they are really stout or just have not faced a team that can shoot outside.

Rebounding is not a significant plus or minus. White and Huntley-Hatfield are the most consistent rebounders.
Expect to see a four-guard set for the majority of the contest. As stated earlier, starters average 72% of all minutes so foul trouble could have a significant impact on the Cardinals game plan.

Louisville struggled all game to put a smaller, less talented Bellarmine away. Foul trouble forced Louisville to go to its bench more than in any other game and they were extremely unproductive with the bench on the floor. Kenny Payne was also forced to deal with his reserve point guard not wanting to play because they didn't have the right tights he likes to wear.

Here's the full quote from Kenny Payne on Ty-Laur Johnson and his tights situation: pic.twitter.com/WnIX88d1Lz— Kent Spencer (@WHAS11Kent) November 30, 2023

The Hokies

Bacon's back‼️🥓Looking forward to a sold-out Cassell tomorrow 🏰🔊🔥 pic.twitter.com/KhDVORLcKB— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) December 2, 2023

The Hokies come home following two bad losses. Regardless of poor officiating, it is unlikely the Hokies would have won at Auburn. The biggest concern is that for the third time in three losses the Hokies allowed the opponents post player to dominate inside. Broome had 30 points and 15 rebounds to lead Auburn, Goldin played the biggest role in the blowout loss to FAU and even Mack for South Carolina had a big game. Can Mike Young find a lineup or rotation to counter this weakness going forward?

The Hokies again struggled to execute offensively and turned the ball over an alarming 21 times or about one in three possessions. Pedulla was especially careless with seven turnovers. Auburn turned the turnovers into 25 points. Starters are continuing to play too many minutes and they were visibly worn down against Auburn.

MJ Collins is tentatively expected to return against Louisville but other than being able to spread the workload, continues to be an overall loss on offense. His defense and turnovers created are important but essentially wiped out by his shooting.

Cattoor was the only Hokie to finish in double digits and even though the Hokies won the rebounding battle they only shot 27% on the night. The score could have been much worse but Auburn shot 13% from outside on 16 attempts.

The Hokies are back home against one of the weakest ACC teams so hopefully it's a recipe to get right.

In Closing
The Hokies face a press defense for the third game in a row which does not help the Hokies. Fortunately this will be the weakest version of the press they will go up against. Can the Hokies protect the ball and work it inside to open players underneath?

Has Coach Young and staff been able to assess the last couple games and schemed up ways to prevent that type of performance against athletic rosters?

Can the Hokies get Kidd back in the swing of things scoring wise? He struggled mightily in the last two games and needs a bounce back as the Hokies start ACC play. Is Mike Young able to rest the starters more throughout in this contest without putting the victory at risk.

Hokies should have the edge in this contest and fans have to hope they shook off the last couple games and come in focused on building an early lead and are able to force Louisville into risking open looks to pressure the ball. A win gives the Hokies some breathing space but an early conference loss to what might be the worst team in the ACC could be a strong sign of what to expect.