ππππππͺπ‘π ππ£ππ₯π¨ππ€π© ππΈ#ThisIsHome | #GroundUpβ Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) January 31, 2023
2023 ACC Football Schedule. β¬οΈπποΈ: https://t.co/bl7PriyiMU#ACCFootball | π₯π₯π₯ pic.twitter.com/H8MhxjdbAMβ ACC Football (@ACCFootball) January 31, 2023
Absolutely love having the bye in the middle of the year and then coming back to the Thursday night home game.
#Hokies 2023 football schedule per the ACC. Give me your way too early W/L predictions.WWWWLLWWLLWW pic.twitter.com/9agMfLd1g1β THE KEY PLAY (@thekeyplay) January 31, 2023
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Comments
I see Joe is drunk tweeting on the TKP handle again...
He's drunk on hype!
I am at least 99% confident Joe no longer runs the Twitter page.
I don't hate it, tbh. An off week followed by a Thursday night game is cool. Also good to see some variety here, I'm glad we aren't going to ODU and there's no Libertybibberty in sight. Only head scratcher is that we are going to Marshall and not the other way around, but I seem to remember we've done that in the past iirc.
Most of our home-and-home series start on the road for us. Plus, this is part of Marshall helping us out after the ECU . . . incident.
Yeah, give me Marshall over ECU / Bibberty / any of those clowns any day. Always liked Marshall.
Strong agree. I have been there live to hear the "whose got a Herd on?" "I've got a Herd on" back and forth from the students. Priceless. Makes me miss "stick it in" all the more......
I really like this schedule. A good mix of home and away games and a mid October bye with that bye split by a Thursday night game. This is the most favorable schedule we have had in a while.
Other than last year. Which was the easiest in 30 years
Too bad it was also our worst team in 30 years.
As long as we're in the ACC our schedule is going to be favorable every year. Our schedule has been "the easiest/softest schedule in decades" every year for the last like 5 years lol. At least.
I'm gonna guess Wake Forest is homecoming. Unless they decide to go early and use Pitt.
Corps Homecoming/Military Appreciation is probably going to be the Purdue game. ODU would be a better opponent for that, but they usually don't go for those type of events in week 1.
15-0! Bama ain't shit!
Am I out of it? Where's UNCheat, GT and Miami?
ACC decided to give the Carolina schools their rivals in the new scheduling model and told everyone one else sans Clemson and FSU to go fuck themselves
New scheduling formats this year.
There are no more divisions in the ACC.
Everyone chime in at once
The divisions are gone starting this year. They went to a pod format with 3 permanent rivals and the other rotate threw. Our pod is Pitt, LOLUVA, and Wake Forest.
HA so no more BC as our cross division rival yet we play them the first year of the new format
#GoACC
I still think we traded pods with Louisville. Their designated three of GT, Miami, and UVA seems like it should have been ours.
Losing Miami annually really blows to those of us who remember the Big East days. I know that game hasn't had the national implications it used to for some time, but when you see Miami on the schedule it always still fires me up. But all things considered, playing FSU or Clemson instead every year is good since we have rarely gotten to play them.
Losing GT I can sort of live with. That game had major Coastal implications in our first decade in the league and the PJ vs Bud's defense thing was great for a lot of years, but that game lost a ton of steam.
Game I will miss playing annually the most? UNC. Absolutely can't stand them and you can just tell those teams don't like each other. Also major recruiting battle. That really was developing into a great rivalry, but honestly they're probably happy they don't have to play us annually now.
As an ATLien I'm really pissed about missing GT. At least I can go to Clemson every other year now.
RIP annual Techmo Bowl :(
https://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/
6-6/7-5 but that's progress and I'll take it
Boooooo Purdue at home boooooooo
Um, this is part of a home and home. We already went to Purdue and this is the return trip. Scheduled back when Purdue was pretty good.
Yeah but I didn't live in Chicago back then
I was at that game at Purdue. Six great memories of that trip.(fun fact they had no permanent stadium lights-at that time at least (2015-not 1982 like the Hokies, lol)
1) left a day early (decided literally at last minute )f or our road trip to catch a Cubs game at Wrigley on Friday at 1pm (after driving straight through from 11pm Thursday)
2) Every kickoff hearing the Purdue fans chanting in unison "I..U...Sucks!"- GOTTA appreciate that level of animosity toward your rival. They do it every single home game no matter who the opponent that day is.
3) Got a spare ticket day of game for $5
4) After game, we waited for team to exit and Bud Foster thanked us(my friend and I ) for traveling to the game
5) Went to see the Purdue women's volleyball match against nationally ranked Notre Dame (in a "Pack the Mack" event for $5 tickets). The crowd was led by the cheerleaders in yelling "Dig...Set...Spike" cheers- 4000+ in attendance-incredible atmosphere!
6) Purdue fan at tailgate was incredible Journey fan- stayed at our tailgate after his friends left for the game so he could finish listening to them on our ION tailgater speaker lol.
Hardest schedule we've had in a while. ODU *should* be an easy win. UVA and Syracuse shouldn't be too difficult either, but that's it. Rutgers will be a tough out. No idea how Purdue will be under Saterfield, but the were good this year. Marshall will have a stout D. The rest of the ACC isn't murders row, but it's not a cake walk either.
I can easily see us improving drastically but still not being bowl eligible.
Purdue's HC is Ryan Walters, replacing
BrianJeff Brohm to went to Louisville, replacing Scott Satterfield who went to CincinnatiEdit: wrong Louisville Brohm
God damn it that's what I was thinking not what was typing. I'm tired.
You mean Jeff Brohm?
π«
O/U 6.5
under
I hope to see at least six, then a bowl game.
Myrtle Beach Bowl perhaps?
I'll take that under, easily. If we win more than 6, it means Drones is the real deal, Rudolph has coached up the OL, our skill position talent mostly panned out, and D is steadily improving. Or we manage to stay injury free.
Like i said last year, my heart says over but my head says under
Under. Went with the over last year and was badly wrong. Hopefully I can be badly wrong taking the under here. And then I can claim credit with my bad pick for the good season if we do well!
Under.... I'm thinking probably 4-8 or 5-7. I think we'll look better this year than we did last year, but our schedule is a bit backloaded and even with improvement there is going to be a pretty severe talent gap in quite a bit of the last 2/3 of the schedule.
I'm guessing we have at least 1 more season before we start seeing noticeable improvement in our win total. We were a 3 win team with arguably the easiest schedule we've had in 20 years last year. The team could be markedly improved this year from what we saw last year and have the same win total.
Agree, I see three VT will be favored and a couple of toss ups.
If we could have replaced Wake with Miami this would have been a great schedule. Two Big Ten teams (both beatable), a decent regional g5 in Marshall, our instate g5 and FSU and NC State on the schedule.
We also play ODU this year.
Damn, no Miami
Are we the only ones who didn't make a schedule release video/graphic/photo series for social? Wtf are we doing?
We did. Its not that good compared to the amazing content they have been pushing out these past few years.
We lost one of the social media gurus to the Playoff committee just weeks ago.
Damn, sucks for us, happy for her. Was she the one that basically followed Pry on the sidelines this year? A favorite pastime of mine when I got tired of watching the on-field product was playing where's waldo with the social media staff.
yes... she was the one right there when the gun sounded and he got win #1
Damn she was only here for less than 2 years. Good for her tho
It's at least the second person off staff that playoff committee has taken from Tech.
No one listened to me when I said the playoffs are ruining college football but here it is, they just take and take and take /s
For those traveling to Marshall, Hillbilly Hotdogs is worth a detour.
I'm hoping for a 3 ppg growth from last year to this. Either 3 more offensive ppg or 3 less defensive ppg, or a combination of both.
We were 3-8.
3 points more in our favor and we're 5-5 with 1 tie.
Is +3 ppg in our favor too much to ask?
It's a reasonable request.
5-7 is my prediction but even that seems a bit optimistic. 1-5 is very much on the table, 1-6 could be too honestly. Kinda depends on how good Rutgers and Marshall are but both of those games are very losable on the road, winnable too for sure. But I very much doubt we win both.
BC Cuse and UVA are the only very winnable ACC games we play. Louisville will be good, FSU will be very good, State and Pitt will be solid
8 W's=Atlantic Conference Coaching, alpha.
Hell's bells... 8 in year no.1 + year no.2 = progress.
Rise >>> run. Positive slope. Betterment.
Not the worst direction compared to
the last time; is it?
π―
b.street
So the O line is gonna be that bad again?
Showing improvement from last year, but still limited by inexperience and lack of top end talent.
I'm not sure if he was saying 8 wins combined in years 1 and 2? Five wins or less would be pretty tough to swollow. Yeah it's a couple more wins, but still a losing year. Five wins versus three really isn't much difference, it's still a pretty bad year. We need 6 wins and a bowl bid IMO to say progress. Less than that and I think some changes need to be made. Recruiting momentum won't last if we continue to look horrible on the field.
I've been zeroing in on my 'expectations' for the upcoming season, and I think 5 wins seems likely (with a significant jump in SP+ rating). There's only one 'gimme' on the schedule (ODU) and two games where we'll likely be favored (UVA, Syracuse). Everything else is at best a coin flip right now. And I'd be okay with that provided (a) problem areas look better (OL π), and (b) recruiting continues to trend up.
I will admit that, given our opponents' turnover at head coach, turnover at QB, and difficult schedules (eg; Rutgers going 4-8 with 4 guaranteed losses) makes it tough to know how tough our schedule will actually be.
It's tough to say... we got 5 big upgrades on offense, but if one is a miss and two get hurt, then what can you do? Depth on the DL is also terrifyingly limited. That said, if we get to the end of 2023 and we still don't have an offensive identity, it's time for changes.
I feel like I've posted about this ad nauseam here, but recruits don't care about past performances. To attract recruits you need to convince them:
I get that recruits don't care about individual wins and losses, but Pry selling to recruits to come rebuild the program will start to ring hollow if we look poorly coached and inept on the field. There has to be some momentum with the program to keep the recruiting momentum overall going. If we don't have an offensive identity again and struggle, it will be hard to convince top talent that these coaches are the ones to get them to the NFL. I'm hopeful that's not the case this year, but I feel like another losing season will warrant some changes, barring some completely mitigating circumstances like key injuries or what not.
I think I'm with you, I just feel that 5 wins and NOT looking poorly coached and inept on the field is a very likely possibility.
Yup!! Dont piddle away two score 4q leads, dominate the teams we should, don't get blown out entirely
Do that in a 5-7 year with a '24 recruiting class pushing top-25? That's tangible progress
Edit to add: make or break year for Bowen though. Gotta be able to move the ball and score some touchdowns.
Pry is recruiting, now he needs to learn how to coach. He lost a few last year from the sidelines. I want him to succeed, and to grow into a good coach. It is a process, and he is definitely putting in the work to be a successful coach
Agree, if it's a very competitive five-win season and we don't beat ourselves, that's one thing. If it's a miserable five wins with a lot of errors again and self-inflicted wounds, I think you have to make changes. If it's the former I think I would be ok with it. I'm still setting my expectation/bar for success at 6 and getting a bowl berth, as I think that would be a very positive step. But I can definitely understand and accept the scenario you lay out.
Anything beneath that though and there's major cause for concern IMO.
8 wins in the postseason.
Well, who is my all-important odd (blindside) Ot1? (X could be nice here in time, '24 or '25).
Who is my C1? (How well do they make the line calls)?
And will we have anything more than 1 or maybe 1.5 as depth goes?
That's pretty lateral at the moment to me-- that candor firmly placed...
...I do recall hearing them say they wanted to go Ot shopping after the next
set of portal entries occurs. So, maybe that makes us at least +1 on depth from
gaining at least an Ot3 caliber guy. Still yet, Jordan was okay at C1 and that was about it.
And if you could not beat that out?
How good should I forecast your C1 rookie year to, be?
b.street
per Pry via the latest Bitter athleticle (summarized):
Many other interesting notes as well -- Jaylen Jones switching from WR to Safety most notably, and LB room being less a classical "two deep" than it will be getting the right personnel on the field to match up on down-and-distance
I was optimistically taking the 'over' last year and was targeting 6 or 7 wins. Though I quickly revised my estimate after ODU realizing how bad a shape Fu had left us in. Going to be more cautious this year and go 5-7. If we get 2 more wins than last year, have some young guys getting playing time, continue to see the upward trend in recruiting we are seeing now and have cleaner play/fewer unforced errors, I'll see that as real progress. Anything above that is just cherry on the sundae.
I have not been this pessimistic about a season in decades. Maybe just bracing myself after having some hope things would look better last year, but my over/under is 5.5. Based on what I saw last year I think we are more likely to lose games we should not then upset teams with more talent.
Though knowing me I'll have jumped on the hype train by the time the season starts.
I am hoping for 15-0. Realistically, I think 7-5.
if our offensive coaches figure it out I think we win 6 or 7 games, at least. If they don't, which I suspect they won't, I think we'll have another 3 or 4 win stinker of a season.
I have absolutely no idea.
Eight teams had a winning record last year. By comparison, only five opponents on last year's schedule had winning records. It's going to take a major rise and a few opponents to fall for VT to make a bowl.
7-5 BABYYYY
W -- ODU
L -- Purdue
W -- @Rutgers
W -- @Marshall
W -- Pitt
L -- @FSU
L -- Wake
W -- Syracuse
L -- @Louisville
W -- @BC
L -- NC State
W -- UVA
I think we get one W and one L from Pitt/Wake, just can't really decide who. Also I'm a little nervous about that Marshall game. I'm expecting our offense to take a big step forward this year with our portal additions and hopefully a healthy Malachi Thomas, even with our sketchy O-line.
I don't feel good about individual predictions yet with more roster turnover (for us and others) looming and spring practice yet to be held, but winning 4/6 home games would be great vibes for the fans, assuming losses to NC State and Pitt, but we could also lose a gimme and beat NC State, for example.
Beat Marshall on the road, and split one of Rutgers/BC and we have ourselves a bowl game! Or if we go 3/6 home games (losing to Purdue, for example), but beat both of Rutgers and BC, we have ourselves a bowl game.
I think I'm expecting around 5 wins, but that path to a bowl game is reasonable.
LOL- you have to love BC finally not being a permanent cross over yet of course being on the fucking schedule. Fucking love it. lol. And I am interested to see if we are mentally tough enough to beat Syracuse in football. We haven't been mentally tough enough to do that in quite some time. Mental.
I'm thinking 2-2 or 3-1 non-conference and 3-5 or 4-4 in the ACC.
Anything less than that and I'll be very disappointed.
1-3 wins: Fire Pry.
4-5 wins: Something's not working here. Probably need to make staff changes.
6-7 wins: Alright, some progress. Not there yet though. Let's keep grinding.
8+ wins: Great season. Keep grinding, build off of it.
Obviously there are a lot of other factors (recruiting, injuries, etc. etc.), but I think these would be my general thoughts at the end of the season after looking at that schedule.
In terms of a prediction though, I think 7-5. I think we start 3-1, win one of the next three (Pitt, FSU, WF), beat Syracuse, win one of either @ Louisville or @ BC, and beat UVA to reach 7.
All 5 P5 teams we play in Lane this year went to a bowl last year, I'd like to see us go 4-2 at home at the very least.
He's not getting fired regardless. (And didn't we agree when it happens it's #FryPry π€ )
I'm not even sure what the expectations should be given the circumstances. The recruits he got are very young and unproven, the roster is still going to turn over a ton and we lost some experienced contributors. We only got 6 guys from the portal (one more than last year). National media is probably going to have us around 4-8.
Just avoid stupid unforced coaching errors and have an offense that looks like they somewhat know what they're doing and I'll take that as a huge step forward. Also playing the right guys is huge. (For example Wells has no touch on short to mid throws, he was a liability for the team and they played him anyway. Things like that have to change).
Correct- he's not getting fired. What also shouldn't happen is extending him if he scraps out 7 wins.
I would hope not, because that usually comes with a major raise. Our big money donors are already paying through the nose for two extremely inexperienced coordinators..
except they really aren't. if you think paying a P5 coordinator less than $900k is "through the nose" then you're a silly goose
https://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2023/january/20/football-coach-pay-2023
I don't think you can fire Pry after just year two. But if last season was any indication, if we win 3 games or fewer it'll be because our offense is stuck in mud. I do think you can fire Bowen and clean house on that side of the ball after year two. Whether or not Pry can do that is going to be critical. Let's assume we win only 3 games next year and Pry keeps Bowen et al. If in '24 we also win only 3 games or so then I think you do fire Pry.
If Bowen gets fired i don't think it makes sense to also clean house. Need to hang onto Fontel Mines based on the early returns and imo it makes way more sense to ditch Bowen and promote Brad Glenn and not entirely reset the "extenuating circumstances clock" on Pry
this is absolutely fair. I'm not even sure Bowen is the real problem. I think the problem is that we have a bunch of guys with different philosophies trying to figure out how to work together. I don't hate the approach, per se, but I hate the approach for VT. VT hired a seasoned DC to be HC for the first time in his career. He brought along a protege DC to groom under his tutelage. That makes sense.
But to go out and hire a guy with basically no OC experience as the OC and then have him build a staff out of guys from all over the football philosophy spectrum to come in and try fixing an offense that has been broken for decades was a huge blunder, IMO. It would have made much more sense for Pry to hire a seasoned OC who could build a staff that share a vision and philosophical approach to the offense. I think it was purely a misevaluation by Pry. Offense (or lack thereof) is basically what got the last coach fired (and the coach before him gently pushed out). If you know that offense is a big problem in Blacksburg you go with the sure thing and hire someone who has proven they know WTF they are doing.
Instead, Pry figured that defense is the identity for VT so he put all his chips in that bag. It's not a terrible strategy (it's better than Fuente's approach, for sure) but it misses the big issue that has plagued VT football for a long, loong time.
Building a staff like Pry did might make more sense if he's already a seasoned HC and has a DC (like a Bud Foster) who can carry more weight while the offensive coaches figure it out. But that just isn't the situation he has in Blacksburg. He had a completely broken football program and needed to hire guys who know what they are doing and have proven track records doing it. Bowen is not that guy - evidenced by the extremely mismatched staff he built.
Bowen has a year to prove that he can be that guy or he is most likely gone. I think we can all hopefully assume that if Bowen fails (and I hope he doesn't) that Pry's next guy would be someone with more OC experience to start.
1000%
and, to my point above, I think bringing in a completely new, proven, OC would mean a clean sweep of the offensive staff. I'm not against holdovers, and I acknowledge that Fines has done great work with recruiting, but I'm going to defer to the next OC. If he wants to keep Fines, great. If not, that's fine too.
I think we would definitely hang on to Mines in that scenario. Most good college OCs understand recruiting. I think for a good OC, you don't necessarily need "your guys" at certain spots. You at least need solid to good coaching but you understand you also need someone with recruiting impact. I would think QB coach (which most times is the also the OC) and OL coach are the biggest positions where they may want someone who meshes with their system in particular. But RB, WR, TE probably not as much necessarily.
Look at Clemson for instance. Chad Morris comes and basically grooms Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott as his WR and RB coaches to run his system after he left.
I think if the offense is a total failure this year, you have to pull a Dabo after 2010 and bring in a big name OC with a good system. I don't think you have to totally clean house on that side of the ball, but I the situation warrants bringing in a proven OC with the amount of cash we are paying Bowen and Rudolph.
Man.... some people just don't realize where VT football is right now. We don't have the talent to put expectations like this on the team. We had one of the weakest schedules in football last year and fought like hell just to get 3 wins. We have a harder schedule this year and while we are starting to replenish the ranks, its going to take time for it to gel. And given the way the season played out last year, its an absolute mistake to pencil any game in as a sure win. The team hasn't proven themselves deserving of that kind of benefit of the doubt, yet.
If you are ready to fire coaches for anything less than 6 wins, then you have already made up your mind about this staff.
To add to this while we've added a few sought after transfers we're still absolutely tissue paper thin in depth and haven't even made it to Spring practice yet where historically we're good for one debilitating achilles tear to a projected contributor player.
We aint winning 8 games dawg but 3 wins should be the absolute floor
I hate that we don't play GT this year, for personal reasons. I want to stop having to say "Virginia Tech" around my GT family. =^/
Beating them in round ball will reset that.
No, it won't. It's always been a football bet.
It's really difficult to predict how the team will perform next season with all the new faces and question marks at key positions. The Spring should give us a little insight. However, if we can get to .500 I think it will be one hell of a good season all things considered.
So much of next season's results will depend on QB play, which of course depends a lot on offensive line play. But the QB is really the difference maker between the floor, 4-5 wins, and the ceiling, 7-8 wins. For example, Clemson's struggles the past 2 years are directly attributable to Uiagalelei's ineffectiveness. Either Wells or Drones will need to step up and produce a competent passing game or it's the floor most likely. I really hope one of them has the skills to lead the offense well enough to make a positive difference.
I agree with your take regarding QB play and it being the difference between floor and ceiling. Sadly, however, I think our floor is lower than 4-5 wins...
Unlike all these people with wild guesses, I did some serious research. Sadly, the first Attack of the Drones was such a bust that Warner Brothers didn't even release it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7-8iN-DQU4 If you don't want to spend the time watching it, just imagine a cartoon by Justin Fuente - weak cast, bad choices, self destruction, etc. So I have a hard time getting from that complete failure to Attack of the Drones II being a big time success. But if the other choice is going to the Wells too often............
OK, seriously, I am really praying for one more portal transfer into our Dline to get us above 500. Without that, probably 6-6.
Five wins with a deviation of one.
Pry's first thoughts on the schedule, "We gotta be better."
It was cool hearing his response to the question about our transfer class. He was literally audibly excited about the HS recruits and the transfer players. I had to turn the volume down at lunch to avoid getting looks from coworkers.
Thanks for sharing this one... He still says all the right stuff. Let's see it.
loved his comments about being the head coach and calling the defense this past year. Acknowledges that he didn't do a great job at either when he was doing both. If Marve can call the defense like he did the last game I think we'll be pretty pretty pretty good there.
Wouldn't be surprised with anywhere from 3 to 7 wins. More than that would be gravy AF.
We've lost some veterans, but that actually probably raises the talent floor
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
7-5
Come out of non conference play at worst 2-2. Probably go 1-2 before our bye. I think we can go 4-1 to be honest to close, especially if everything starts to gel and hum, but I'll say 3-2.
Added up, I think I've got 6-6. Bowl eligible. That would be a success.
Was watching the TSL podcast from yesterday on the 2023 schedule, and they brought up a good point. We are really sorely lacking for a true rivalry. Everyone will say UVA but let's face it, they don't really care about football, and they don't even really view us as their rival (probably view UNC as more of a rival). It's our in state foe but they're more like that annoying cousin you have to see once a year. It just doesn't have any true heat or intensity. I don't ever look forward to the UVA game personally.
We lost Miami but that rivalry hasn't been much of one for a while now, and they probably didn't view us as a true rival. Rivals to me seem like programs with similar school size/fan bases who are both passionate about their teams. They brought up a great point - WVU is probably our best true football rival. That game will always have some juice to it. I also think we could get something similar going with NC State playing them more often, but of course UNC will always be their main rival. We just don't quite have that game that both teams and fanbases circle on the calendar each year right now. I think WVU could be that.
Very true. During the 2000's Miami was for a sure a rival and they probably viewed us that was as well, but the game as definitely lost its luster now that it does not have any implications. That game for several years had national relevance but now just an afterthought.
I think the Pod system will for sure make it even harder for us to have a real rivalry. I think more than anything the game has to mean something so both teams need to be good. Not sure if UVA ever gets there, but when the game comes down to who is going to the ACCCG then it has some real meaning and feels more like a rivalry game.
Hard disagree. Three games I always want the Hokies to win more than any other: WVU, Miami, LOLUVA
I kinda hate it, but I can see Pitt/NarDouche become a real rivalry (assuming we actually beating them one day). The hate is there.
If we can bring the physical play to match what they've been doing over the past decade to us. That's the hate/frustration that I have with them.
We need that late 4th quarter, 4 down stop on the goal line mentally every play.
Someone hit me with the quad gif box.
couldn't find the gif for the life of me but here's the youtube clip from BillDozer....
I got you fam!
Ps. Type quad box into the TKP search bar and it's your first hit.
Definitely want to play WVU more, they're a great rival.
I hope we can also revive our rivalry with Tennessee. They're beginning to leave us behind with money and exposure, it would be nice to schedule them (2026 open slot maybe π) and be competitive before that gap becomes too wide
If we could straight up boot Cuse, BC, and Louisville to add WVU to the ACC I would do it immediately.
Agree but there's big money in Louisville, I'd say kick Wake Cuse and BC. That would be a solid league. Those three belong in the G5 anyway
Alright time for the yearly mad lib, which I think I've forgotten to do for most of the years:
Copied from here and edited a little for this season.
Dear ACC,
Thanks a lot for scheduling us on [date] against [team]. You really weren't thinking that one through, were you?
You know in Blacksburg we love [weekday] night games, particularly against [team] or [team], but you didn't even consider giving us even a little [emotion] , did you? You thought, 'Oh, well we have [Blacksburg school] and we can schedule them against [team] on [date] if we want to, can't we?'. Yes, technically you can, but wouldn't you consider throwing [fanbase] a bone every now and again?
We've developed an intense rivalry with [school in South Florida that we've played for 31 consecutive years through two conferences] but for some reason you didn't include them in our schedule anymore. Since joining the ACC, we've developed the [novel-nicknamed in-conference 'bowl' game against a like-minded engineering school] against [school in a major southern recruiting hotbed], but you wanted to [thing you do with your lips] the [rear-facing part of the human body] of both [blue-colored teams in one state southward] when it came to the new schedules, didn't you?
Maybe, just maybe, you should have given us the permanent rivals that you gave to [red bird pizza school] instead of forcing [bubble trail from a boat] [collection of trees] down our throats with whom we have [opposite of 'yes'] significant history or rivalry with. The inclusion of [the team whose piss baby coach is the Chris Bickell '97 Head Football Coach] was ok but not preferred, but at least you didn't entirely [fastener tightened with a Philips head driver] the [nickname for a dog] and at least kept [house of douchebaggery] on the schedule.
It's bad enough that we scheduled ourselves with [terrible Big Ten school] and [terrible Big Ten school] and [West Virginia mid-major] and [757 mid major who we will eventually have to beat], but you won't even let us schedule [school from a geometric region who competes with us for 757 recruits] or [currently rebuilding national power] for at least another [infinite time period], instead forcing us to play yearly against [bubble trail from a boat] [collection of trees], and I'm betting it will be played at [early game time].
At least we get to play [other, needs-more-rebuilding former national power] and against [red dog school from geometric region] next year and win our [infinite time period]th-straight game against [house of douchebaggery].
[expletive] you guys.
#go[conference of incompetent scheduling]
Think we gotta go 3-1 to start, and 3-2 to close to get to a bowl. Going to be hard to get a win in the Pitt, FSU, Wake stretch probably.
Not sure on a full season prediction yet...but if we don't start 4-0, I'll have lost faith in Pry & Co
lol. this is kinda ridiculous. ODU beat us last year. They'll be a tough out. Purdue won almost 3 times as many games as we did last year. They're not going to be easy to beat. Rutgers is almost as bad as we are. This one is probably as close to a toss-up as we have in the first month. Marshall did win 3 times as many games as us last year. They're probably our toughest opponent in the first 4 weeks.
I don't think VT will start 4-0. I'd be pretty shocked if they do. I also don't think that starting anything less than 4-0 is really a good reason to be done with Pry. I think we need to give Pry a full 3 seasons to really evaluate him. I think a lot of folks underestimate the absolute mess he came into. He's fighting an uphill battle with one leg tied behind his back. In the snow. 10 miles both directions....where was I?
Oh, right. 4-0 start is an unrealistic expectation for Pry and shouldn't be grounds for him to be fired if he doesn't meet that loft benchmark.
At first, I thought everyone was sleeping on Rutgers. Their record will always be shit because they have to play OSU, Mich, MSU, and PSU every year. But looking at SP+ and they are just as bad as us.
I'm not knowledgable around turnover/improvements on the Rutgers coaching staff or roster, but it feels like this game could be an easy way to measure YoY progress, seeing as last year Rutgers and VT were basically the same team.
LOL @ our offense being worse than Rutgers'
Is there a non-ESPN source for SP+ rankings? It seems Connelly only links his ESPN+ page these days.
I would guess that VT probably finished higher than ODU, Rutgers, BC, and UVA. I'm also guessing that, like Rutgers, all three of those are pretty close to VT (and tbf, there isn't much room above 96). I would think Syracuse is the closest above us, with Marshall above them. Then the rest are probably way above us.
If the 2023 schedule was simulated based on 2022 performance, I would guess VT would be expected to win between 1.8 and 2.2 games. It'll be interesting to see how Connelly (and others) project the teams based on returning and incoming talent. He's already suggested VT would be improved due to portal entries, but how much?
This is all to say, without really knowing returning/incoming/departing talent, I am guessing the computer formulae to predict VT around 4.2 to 5.2 wins. ODU will be the only high percentage expected win. Because Rutgers, BC, and UVA are on the road, the expected win will be closer 0.5 than most people would think. Getting WF (lost a lot of talent, I think), Syracuse (average team), and NCST (lost a lot of talent, I think) at home will likely have expectation wins below but near 0.5. Marshall will be somewhere around 0.4. I think we can expect the other 4 games to be low expectation wins for VT (between 0.1. and 0.3).
So when the SP+ or FPI or F+ or whatever comes out with their expected wins this year, do not be surprised if VT is projected to be staying home during bowl season. VT will need to improve beyond the expected improvement to be bowl relevant again.
He publishes weekly predictions against the spread, as well as post win expectancies in this google sheet. He also maintains a google doc with everything he writes.
Your gut is pretty spot on:
Side note - it's wild how similar VT, UVA, and Rutgers are. We are basically the same team.
Yeap, this is exactly where I'm at.
Thanks for sharing. As a stat and predictive modeling geek, I enjoy seeing these things.
These agnostic projections are also good to understand just where everyone stands. And as it stands, VT is one of the worst football programs in the FBS. It'll get better in 2024, but it's not easy to go from one of the worst to bowl eligible in one season. I think they can, but that offense needs to improve dramatically from being the 125th offense.
Funny you should mention that... because here's a list of teams who have done this before.
I'm not saying I'm done with him if we don't start 4-0. I think he needs at least 4 years to really get it firing, but if he can't start 4-0, I'll start doubting that he'll get us back to our glory days, without some staff shake-ups.
Should we not expect to be improved from last year?
yes, last year ODU beat us, then went on to finish 3-9 - We sure as fuck better have improved enough to beat them.
Purdue - yeah maybe they are better than I initially gave them credit for, they did beat 2 ranked teams last year...but Perdue? I mean c'mon
Rutgers, 4-8 last year with their only wins over BC, Wagner (who?), Temple, and Indiana. Losing here should not even be a consideration.
Marshall last year beat an overrated (as always) Notre Dame, then their next best win was..JMU? App St? I dunno, I'm not looking all those Sun Belt teams up.
If the expectation is that in year 2, we might lose to a Sun Belt, bottom tier B10, or bottom tier Sun Belt team....Pry better be ready to have some tough conversations with his assistants. I'll give Purdue a pass.
I think it's possible, if not likely, that we drastically improve from last year, but still fail to make a bowl. Our schedule is that much harder IMO. For context, OU finished 6-7 last year, but was the 20th best team per SP+. TAMU finished 5-7, but was 35th in SP+. VT was 96th in SP+.
I guess what I'm saying is that being just as good as TAMU was last year would be a HUGE improvement for this team, but would still put us at 5 wins.
Fair. IMO, even marginal improvement should be enough to win 3 out of those first 4 games. I hope we can scrape together 3 ACC wins as well
I am willing to bet you have April 15th circled as a must win game as well.
I am positive that Tech will win on Apr. 15.
i'd agree with you if this was 2017 but it's not.
i want to be 4-0, i don't think it's realistic for that to be my baseline expectation. and i certainly don't think anything less than 4-0 is justification to lose my faith in the staff entirely. P5 road games aren't "easy". For all of the "pfft it's Rutgers", there's 5 years worth of history for anyone else to say "pfft it's virginia tech"
Yeah, per the French article, the receivers last year were "inconsistent, at worst, dreadful." We stocked up in the portal, but Jeremy Webb would like a word about counting your portal chickens before they hatch. Fortunately, we got several, so an injury to one isn't likely to be too bad, but we need a lot of help in that department.
I think it will also be interesting to see what we can do with so many returning linemen - if just time in the program and coaching will get them the type of development we've been wanting to see for the past 6 years, or if we need better players to see marked improvements.
If this coaching staff is good at developing guys, we may be better than we'd think, but I won't necessarily expect it, given the overall talent level we had on the team and any unforeseen injuries. I think Pry and company will be much better developers than the previous staff, but it will be interesting to see just how good they are.
Drones should bring some more run threat if the pocket breaks down which can slow the rush a bit. On the other side if Wells fixes the mental mistakes he should get the ball out faster. So better QB play could help the OL situation as long as Drones can keep the first year starter mistakes to a minimum and/or Wells field vision improves.
Wells may even be better than we saw if the line can buy him more time and the receivers can go get the ball as opposed to needing it placed perfectly.
and if he can apply a little touch to some of those passes. He inability to vary the strength of his passes caused some of those incompletions I think.
I think after a while he was just looking for the first guy and if he wasn't open he was immediately dumping into the flat or running b/c he had no faith in the other receivers to get open.
Yeah, I wonder if some of the lack of touch was the urgency to get a pass off because of the line. π€·ββοΈ
Purdue is coming off 17 wins in their last two seasons and were division winners last year. They lost their starting QB and replaced him with Hudson Card, one of the more proven and highest rated portal options.
Thinking of that game as a must-win is an interesting stance.
Based on last year, I'm not sure you can call @Rutgers a guaranteed win either. Marshall was a good G5 team as well and knocked off Notre Dame last year and we play them on the road.
A 4-0 start is not an 'unreasonable' thing to hope for, but putting it as an ultimatum expectation seems based on a skewed reality of where our program is at right now.
way better laid out than i could have
Yeah.
I am starting to think that many people are of the opinion that the only reason we went 3-8 last year was because our coaches sucked, and think the players were good enough to somehow contend for the Coastal or at least easily secure a bowl game.
This season could get ugly on social media if that perception becomes 'the accepted truth'.
was it your drunk brother calling for Tyler Bowen's job or did i misremember that
ah yes, the Foil07 posts...
The reason people can be optimistic for a bowl trip is that we went 3-81 with 3 flukey losses2 and they expect marginal improvement across the board, which should earn us a couple points back per game, on average. That puts us at 6 wins if we even only improve by 2 points per game in those 3 losses. I'm not expecting a bowl trip, but I also am not going to pooh-pooh anyone who does.
1. I think most people assume LOLUVa would have been win #4.
2. ODU: 4 interceptions, a bad snap recovered for a TD, lose by 3.
NCSU: winning 21-3 with 1:42 left in the third and going on to lose 22-21.
GT: winning 27-16 with 9min left in the game and going on to lose 28-27
It was going to be a toss-up game. I doubt Vegas or computers would have VT wining by more than 2 to 3 pts.
Really, only two of these were flukey (ODU and GT). The NCST loss stung, but it's not a fluke if the team that is expected to be better rapidly begins to play better to get the win.
VT also had a flukey win against Liberty. Weird to say VT's win over Liberty was a fluke based on history and fanbase expectations, but looking at the stats and post-game win expectancy, it was a fluke.
We really need every group of the offense to be improved this year. It will be tough for fans to stomach another offense like last season, regardless of their level of understanding of the talent/roster situation.
I think it's fair to be confident that the WR and RB rooms will be improved.
QB has a limited sample size, but there is legitimate reason to be hopeful this will be an upgrade.
TE has little to make me think it will be materially better this year outside of Daequan Wright getting more touches.
OL has the least reason to believe there will be massive improvement. It will be almost entirely based on development unless we bring in some players in the second window. As of now, all hope of improved OL play in 2023 is based on belief in Joe Rudolph.
Yeah I don't think a lot of people fully realize just how historically awful we were on offense last year. Talent was an issue absolutely, but coaching also left a lot to be desired. In my view, it would be hard to be that bad on offense yet again, considering the talent we brought in and the coaches having an off-season to revamp things. If somehow we manage to be that bad again, I definitely think the offensive staff needs to be shaken up. That would give me an indicator that no matter the talent level, we just aren't going to be good. This is a massive year for Bowen and Glenn. If they can make improvements then I will definitely chalk last year up to talent deficiency and scheme/personnel fit issues. I'm not expecting a top 25 offense or anything, but I am hopeful we will have noticeable improvement, which would be good enough to snag us a few wins that were close losses last year.
I think we went 3-8 last year because of a combination of things. Talent issues is certainly one of them. New coaches getting their feet wet is also one. A mishmash of coaches on offense absolutely held things back too. I do think coaching was the difference between 3-8 and, say, 5-6. Our schedule was stupid soft last year, too, which just makes the issues we have in our program seem that much worse.
I acknowledge that talent was and continues to be an issue for our program. It's going to take time to get a solid roster put together. But I also believe that the coaching left a lot to be desired. Time management issues, presnap penalties, questionable game plans-particularly offensively, etc. I'm absolutely convinced that a seasoned OC, coming in with a staff that shares his vision and philosophy, does better offensively than Bowen and co did. There were almost 130 teams that performed better than VT offensively in 2022. I doubt there are 130 teams that have better talent offensively. We probably should have been between 80 and 100. Not between 120 and 131. That's on the coaches and I don't expect them to magically get better over one off season.
Beating Purdue shouldn't be hard. As long as we can keep the water temperature below 212Β° we should have a fair chance.
LOL just lose your faith now and save yourself the disappointment
I feel like people are taking that Marshall game for granted. It's on the road and Marshall had road wins against ND and JMU (aka the best Virginia team in 2022) last year while going 9-4. It has all the makings of a trap game. Although is it really a trap game if the team is just plain better than you? lol
Pretty sure we're the "trap game" for everyone on our schedule this year
Yep
We are literally the team that everyone else in the ACC is automatically counting as a win when looking at their own schedule this year. Even Rutgers and Purdue are probably looking at those games as their opportunity to get a cheap OOC win.
Marshall is looking at it as an easy opportunity to get a P5 road win, and you damn well know ODU likes their chances of getting a win in Lane after last year.
There are no sure wins on our slate. We are going to have to fight like hell to earn any wins this year.
And I hope Pry is giving this exact speech to his guys. You are entitled to nothing. The only thing our name gets us is a target on our backs with none of the respect that used to come with it. Fight like hell and earn your wins and make them fear us again.
7-5... we may even start 4-0 and start to generate unrealistic expectations before we finish the year 3-5. But, my hope is just get to a bowl game... I dont even care about the outcome, just show incremental progress.
I think 2-2 out of the first game is a realistic expectation. Win ODU and Rutgers and I'll take L's with Purdue and Marshall.
So, last year, VT's worst year in decades...
team was a very respectable 14th scoring defense at 19.3 ppg (an improvement from 54th in 2021); and a nightmare-ish 118th in scoring offense, also 19.3 ppg.
Turnover in key defensive personnel has been minimal...TyJuan, Dax, Chimmari. TyJuan will be hardest to replace; but upgrades are likely for at least one if not both of the others. I don't know if we'll change much from 14th, but the defense should be able to hold its own.
I know about karma but I'll say it...there isn't much room in the rankings for the offense to get worse. Add a touchdown more per game and the offense ranks in the 70's. That should be more than realistic with the remake of the skill positions; and with no defensive drop off that would put the team in the 30's in scoring margin.
How does that translate to wins (and I reserve the right to reconsider/delete this after spring)? I don't think we'll beat either FSU or Louisville (I like Brohm) on the road, but I think everything else is in play. I think 7 is reasonable and if we find a for-real QB and slight improvement in blocking, it could get kinda fun.
We don't even have to fully replace the defensive guys, if we allow 22 ppg and score 26 like you said we are going to win a lot more games.
Just booked hotel and rental car for four games so based on last years win/loss per game attended in person we should have four wins penciled in before we even start.
Which 4 games are we winning?
September 2nd ODU
SEPTEMBER 9th Purdue
Oct 14th Wake Forest
Thursday October 26th Syracuse
Nice, we will be waiting for you in Lot 18.
Just waiting to finalize flights and wife work schedule to see if I'll be up for all four. Thursday is biggest question mark. I'll be up for at least two this season though. Looking forward to it.
Thanks for the Thursday night birthday win vs Syracuse. I can celebrate hard knowing we're in good hands.
Wouldn't a repeat of the 1999 game vs. Syracuse be nice? When's the last time we pitched a shutout AND scored 62 points?
I was at that game. It was glorious!
I was too- only game of the Michael Vick era I attended in person. My then spouse said "Those Syracuse players look scared!" as they ran onto the field. 5 Turnovers for our defense- 3 of them scores! AND Held Syracuse to 120 yards total net offense!
And also the beginning of ESPN Gameday becoming what it is as despite the game being a night game(6pm kickoff) , Hokie Nation showed up 20,000 strong in Lane Stadium for Gameday that morning!