A fun though exercise I stole from Reddit (no shame).
If VT started the season 6-0, where would they be ranked in the polls?
As a reminder, our schedule looks as follows
Home vs ODU
Home vs Purdue
Away at Rutgers
Away at Marshall
Home vs Pitt
Away at Florida State
Obviously, it depends on how well the rest of the teams on our schedule do, but I would estimate that 6-0 VT with a win at FSU would be in the top 15- maybe 13ish.
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I learned a new word today when searching for gifs of "delusions of grandeur".
I've got several gallons of delicious kool-aid over here if you'd like a cup!
glug glug, chumps!!!!
If FSU was undefeated and we win on the road there, we're in the top 10 of the AP poll.
CFP poll doesn't start til week 10ish, so not really relevant.
For what it's worth, Kelly Ford gave us a ~1.8% chance of starting 6-0 (SoTheresAChance.gif)
Edit: based on Ford's rankings, FSU has a 13% chance of being undefeated when VT visits. So that means there is a 0.2% chance of an undefeated VT upsetting an undefeated FSU.
Yeah most likely FSU will be 2-2 when they play us tho. That LSU team is loaded and Clemson is just better at almost every position except QB and probably WR (but has a much better offensive coordinator now).
I'm calling it now. FSU beats Klempson. They're better at every positon (position tanks are 1-2 across the board). Clemson is quietly slipping...maybe reloading but the Portia hasn't been Dabo's friend so they are inexperienced.
I'm not ready to call it. But I'd bet them to bet LSU as well. Stay tuned.
Yeah you can't trust position ranks. The Clemson defense is better. Offense FSU may have more talent but I like Clemson with Riley to be able to scheme up a win.
We'll see but I'm not buying the FSU hype. They have a very good offensive line. I'm not sure the rest of the squad will be elite
Clemson blue chip ratio is almost double FSU's they're more talented. FSU will be good but if that Clemson O fires like a Riley offense can they're back to world beaters
I agree it does matter how FSU is doing up to that point, and if they are undefeated then we would probably be top 10.
I think the odds of us doing that at 1% feels high, but it is >0....
You can only multiply the probabilities together to find the probability of the intersection if those probabilities are independent.
...FSU and VT both being undefeated are independent events
until they play each other.... but the odds would also change after each team played each game, or other off the field events, and may have already changed. I guess you could take the odds of each team going 5-0 and the odds of VT beating FSU and multiply all three to get current odds. Either way it's not zero, but its close.
Sigh...
This is not a fullproof methodology, but it's a pretty useful way of talking about the likelihood of a given outcome.
That's what I did - here's VT's odds to win each game (per Kelly Ford, who uses a predictive algorithm that is similar to SP+). If you multiply the odds for each of the first 6 games together, you get ~1.79% of VT winning each.
The chances of FSU going 4-0 prior to playing VT (they have a bye week, so they play 4 games before us, not 5) is 13% (using the same methodology as I did for VT).
VT winning the sixth game if FSU is undefeated is not necessarily independent of FSU being undefeated to that point. They may have a lower probability to win at FSU if FSU is still undefeated than otherwise...
They would just say FSU is overrated. Take as old as time.
My guess is 19th.
If we're talking hypotheticals, 14-17. If we're living in the real world...if the boys start 6-0, I'm going streaking. Not necessarily across the quad, but somewhere.
The lawn?
Might be cold in November!
It's shrinkage, I swear!
My guess is we'll be 3-3, but if we were 6-0 then I'd put us somewhere around #15.
In 2022, there were 9 undefeated ranked teams after week 7. Syracuse was the lowest at 14.
In 2021, there were 11 undefeated ranked teams after week 7. UTSA was the lowest at 24.
In 2019, there were 12 undefeated ranked teams after week 7. App St was the lowest at 24.
Given schedule, expectations, and P6, I'd say it's closer to the Syracuse at 14 than lower in the 20's like the G5 schools. Also depends on how many "good losses" there are by top ranked teams. I'd go with 15th.
stop it with the numbers, this is a college football debate.
It's a fantastical debate, so just took it to the nth degree...
I'd love for us to be 6-0 no matter the ranking.
Given that I don't think FSU will be ranked at that point or will barely be in the top 25, I think we could be 6-0 and potentially still not be ranked depending on how we look in those wins. No one will be impressed having been 4-0 versus those first 4 teams
And yet, why do I find myself saying "Oh God, oh God. Please let us be 4-0 versus those first 4 teams?"
but it still looks good
0 on the right side of the - always looks better than the 0 on the left side of the -.
Because the bar at this current point really is THAT low lol
And yet 6-0 with 4 P5 wins might sneak you into #25 or others receiving votes. Depends on the nature of the wins and whether one of the units (lol the defense lets be honest here) looks dominant
I would be impressed.
There's peak pre-season, then there's Peak Pre-Season.
If we start 6-0, I'm donating $100 to the Hokie Club in whatever program you desire. You can "@" me when/if that happens and I'll provide the receipt :-)
We go 6-0 and I'll match your $100 and double it for each win after.
For each win, or for each consecutive win (remaining undefeated)?
I was intending for it to be as if we were undefeated, but F it, each win, regardless if they are consecutive or not. So 6-0, finish with 9 wins, I'll give $1,500
Ut Fucking Prosim!
Our 15-0 run to the natty is gonna bankrupt you
casual ~100k for the Hokies to win it all? Seems worth.
What are the Vegas preseason odds on the Hokies winning it all, a $100 bet might cover that cost...
Nonononono. That is a surefire way to tempt fate. We get TCU smeared in the natty and you're still out 50k.
Smeared in the Natty vs Making the Natty game again...
I've got them at +50,000 for a dollar.
Given my usual attitude towards gambling, my sports gambling is comically low stakes.
"Given my usual attitude towards gambling, my sports gambling is comically low stakes."
Same here. Should be going to the Rutger's game. Have a co-worker who usually allows me to bet with her. Usually $10 or so, but I always bet against VT if the game has some special meaning (e.g., I am attending in person, bowl game). If they win, I am happy and $10 is meaningless. If they lose, I am not happy, but at least I get a "free" sandwich or something out of it.
Idk if I would pay $100,000 for a guaranteed title, but I would 100% drop $10,000 for a guaranteed title.
I'd put another $10k on a guaranteed natty.
+10000 to win the ACC, +50000 to win the cfb playoffs.
I'll make a small wager next visit to Maryland to offset the chances.
But if we win, and I donate 100k+ I better get the GD tight end room named after me or something.
You really want the tight ends named after you...
Like all of college football- depends on the SEC. If Ole Miss is 3-3, they will be ranked for example. If Vandy is 3-3 they will be ranked. If Missouri is 4-2, they will be ranked ahead of 6-0 duke for example. If bama is 2-4, they will be ranked ahead of VT. Follow the SEC- not kidding. That's the easiest way to predict. And btw - we aren't beating Pitt. Never do.
One of the last games to was vs Pitt and we slaughtered them in the rain.
Last 5 they have outscored us 172-100- and that includes your aforementioned game where they scored zero points. They dominate us. We aren't beating them.
It seems more realistic we somehow get up for the FSU game and pull an upset than we beat Pitt this year.
I'm guessing we start 3-1 and then 3-3
Unfortunately I agree with you. Good news is I think Pitt, Miami, NC State and FSU are the only really unwinnable games. I could see us anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4.
What's the point of making a post like this?
Um...it's DC. You must be new here. :-P
It's true and some people try to act like it isn't. Fuck the SEC and ESPN for propping them up at our expense
It's absolutely true
via GIPHY
Do I honestly think we'll start 6-0? No
But if we did, would we be ranked? If so, how high?
I think that's going to depend (wow, thanks Cap'n Obvious) on several factors. How many losses do the teams we beat have by that point in the season? How many SEC teams have at least 4 wins? What other compelling matchups are on the horizon where one of the teams gets unnecessarily ranked in order to drive weekly banter?
A 6-0 start would certainly be noted. I don't think anyone will be impressed with wins over ODU, Rutgers or Marshall. The other three wins would be over a generally middling B1G team and two ACC teams. There aren't any real feather-in-the-cap types of wins in that list. FSU will get hype to start the season but the instant they lose a primetime game they're out of the conversation and anyone else who beats them doesn't get much credit. They are the paper tiger. If we beat 5-0 FSU to make them 5-1 we'll be ranked. Probably 17ish. If FSU has one or more losses going into our game(ahem, LSU/Clemson), beating them to get to 6-0 gets us to "others receiving votes" or 25th. Unless Wake Forest is also ranked by then (which I doubt) there will be no reason for VT to be ranked heading into that matchup. If we're in the neighborhood some other team with a bigger opponent the following week will get the nod for the 25th spot.
If we manage to beat 5-0 FSU when they have only played 4 games we should absolutely be ranked top 10
It's Scott Steiner math at it's finest.
6-0 with dominate defense performances...top 15.
6-0 with balanced offenses and defense but not dominate performances....top 20.
At the hint of a dominate defense ESPN will be beating down the door to have GameDay here.
Start 6 and 0? Cocaine is one he'll of a drug
If the team is 6-0 while on coke, then yes....
via GIPHY
To hell with rankings...that's bowl eligibility baby!
I hate to even consider that a success... but that's the truth. I don't even care about rankings - I just want to see the team earn the right to play in a game sometime in late December (or later).
6-0 against that schedule, ranking depends a lot on running up the score and/or those teams having okay records. Both, and name recognition gets us top 15. One or the other, and name recognition gets us mid 20s.
With the pool of undefeated teams shrinking every week, it's better for TV ratings to have ranked teams play each other, even if it's inflated. Especially in conference play to keep people interested. Plus they'd rather us go 6-6 after ranking us at 6-0 than not ranking us at 6-0 and then we go undefeated. 15-25 at the midpoint is fluff/hedging.
In the polls, we'd be ranked in the polls that's where.
22 was the first number that popped into my head.
Mainly because wins over ODU and Rutgers won't gain us any credibility.
#1 VT
#2 UGA
Let the hype begin!
I remember my first beer.
I'd say 20th in the polls. At 5-0 (pre-FSU), I still don't think we'd be ranked, unless we completely destroyed our opponents in those first five games, so for a team new to the Top 25, I couldn't see us entering the poll lower than 20.
the only way we get to under 20 is if FSU beats LSU AND Clemson and is undefeated when we beat them, on the road, in Doak Campbell. I think 17 is probably the best we could hope for at 6-0. A lot of that will depend, of course, on what else is happening in other leagues.
I think we could get to #17 or so if we beat an FSU team that is 5-1 coming into our game against them. That'll mean they beat one of LSU or Clemson before we play them.
I think if FSU beats LSU AND Clemson, they'll be sniffing the top 10 by the time we play them, and we might be more like #13 or #14 after beating them to move to 6-0. I think 5-0 would get us at "others receiving votes" or maybe #25 or so.
5-0 with wins over ODU, Rutgers, Marshall, Purdue, and Pitt gets us to 25th? Maybe?
We'll never know, though. I think I'm more likely to win the Powerball jackpot than VT is of going 5-0 to start the season. Unless our offense takes a MASSIVE leap forward I don't think there is any way we get through September unscathed.
Idk. I joked about it in another post saying they would call FSU overrated, but I think if FSU beats those teams and is 6-0 they'll be top 3. If we are undefeated and take down #3, I think we would have to be top 10.
If fsu beats lsu and clemson i think they will be ranked. Don't think they would be top 3, though. And someone else pointed out they have a bye before our game so they would be, at best, 4-0 going into our game.
If 5-0 VT goes on the road and beats a 4-0 fsu which has wins over lsu and clemson, I think VT gets into the top 20. I think top 10 is a stretch unless several other ranked teams have losses. Those are lots of ifs. I don't think VT will manage 5-0. I don't think fsu will beat both lsu and clemson. They may split those games but I would expect them to lose both.
Eh at a certain point people stop looking who you beat and just look at the number of wins, we would probably be in
I really, really, wish we could just go 6-0 and find out. I would be ecstatic. and shocked.
It's hard to do some deep dives into these kind of stats because one is looking for data from the middle of a season.
But I did find data from week 7 of 2021 - the only undefeated teams I see outside of the top 25 are G5.
I'm sure part of the thought process for some is that by the time a P5 team is 5-0 or 6-0, they have to have played at least 1 or 2 P5 teams in that span.
If we are ranked at all, I doubt we break the top 20.
My hype level, though, will easily be ranked #1
Ehh, if we're 6-0 we'll be ranked in the teens. Not that I think we would deserve it, but we've historically been one of those teams where any little bit of hype tends to get exaggerated, and wins over Pitt and @ FSU would definitely help.
We'd be ranked somewhere between 6-9
That's a 5 star, get after it, comment.
The context behind this gif makes the comment even better imo.
#1
Given Crook's past fast turnarounds on the OL at WVU and Cincy + OL experience (yes I know no depth) + Tuten looking like a stud in limited reps in the spring game + depth and experience on DL + legit talent at LB and CB = this team way outperforming preseason predictions. I'd say we are 5-1 after FSU. But I'm a PATT :-)
The primary issue isn't our depth; it's our starters. Staff has said they only have 4 linemen that they feel are prepared to play in the ACC. That includes our right guard who is moving to center and is learning to snap a ball for the first time. Still looking for a fifth offensive lineman.
EDIT: related:
If they can reduce the average false starts to 1 per game and get the ball to the QB it will be a massive improvement.
Not enough to get us to 5-1 IMO