Florida State Seminoles — 10
Clemson Tigers — 9.5
North Carolina Tar Heels — 8.5
Louisville Cardinals — 7.5
Miami Hurricanes — 7.5
North Carolina State Wolfpack — 6.5
Syracuse Orange — 6.5
Duke Blue Devils — 6.5
Pittsburgh Panthers — 6.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons — 5.5
Boston College Eagles — 5.5
Virginia Tech Hokies — 4.5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets — 4
Virginia Cavaliers — 3.5
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
Seems like a fair place to put us. We could hit that over if the transfers are legit, 2nd year Pry guys play better in the defensive system, and the offense shows some improvement on all levels. However, I think we are still relatively thin, and going under could happen with a little bad luck, poor game management and/or some injury misfortune. Here's to hoping we go comfortably over.
I'm taking the over, but our depth could easily have us at 4 Ws if we get a couple injuries at thin positions. 🤞 We get a coupfew more portal pickups to give us a cushion.
I'd definitely take the over on that one.
Seems about right to me too. Said months ago that I would be quite happy if the following were to occur next season:
Go 5-7
Beat UVa
Have a lot of young players getting significant playing time, so that the team should be better the following year
See improvement in the quality of play as the year goes by
Have recruiting continue to trend upward
No meaningful off-field issues/drama
Some of the portal changes have me more optimistic now than I was several months ago, but I'd still be quite pleased if the 6 items above happened next season.
If we get 1 more win than last year, this is going to be a disappointing year for the staff and players. The coaches have put in some serious work, as the players have. Nothing is given in football, you are what your record says you are, but it will be a real tough shot to continue to recruit with small incremental win totals.
Three things:
1) No matter what, taking FSU over Clemson...
2) UVA at 3.5 wins
3) VT at 4.5 wins?
Hard to argue, really. The team has gotten better on paper but we lost two of our most veteran coaches from an offense that was among the worst in the nation last year. Our schedule is tougher in '23 than it was in '22 so all else being equal expecting more than 3 wins is kind if bold.
Maybe the increased talent and the assumption that another year in the same system is beneficial are justification for another win or two.
My head says this is fair. My heart will be really disappointed if we don't win more than 5 games.
Maybe it's just me, but it feels like there is an urgent need to get a lot better a lot more quickly. If we only win 4 games but recruiting continues to improve I worry that won't be good enough.
This feels like the type of situation where if we do only win 4 games we should be looking at a huge jump in year 3. Otherwise we might be stuck in the basement for a long long time. Like uva. And nobody wants that.
I totally see all of your points. My hope is that recruiting bottomed out Fuente's last years and started to pick up in Pry's first. But these people are freshmen or transfers in their first year at VT, so we don't see much improvement in the win column, maybe 4-8, 5-7 in 2023.
Then the following year, we continue to see improvement, good transfer players and the kids from Pry's first class start playing more, so we get to 6 or 7 wins in 2024. Win a piss-ant bowl game against a Sun Belt or Mac team to go 7-6 or 8-5 and we would be on a clear upward trend with the future a lot brighter.
Guess we have to wait and see, but this is my cautiously optimistic hope.
If on field improvement is slow but recruiting improvement continues, I'll be okay. If recruiting stagnates, then we better see big leaps in development.
Two things:
1. VT will go over here. I can't say for certain we will have a whole lot more than the 4.5 listed, but I do think we will be a significantly better team (the penalty issue will likely be fixed. Everyone has an entire year in the system. We made some really good portal moves).
2. NCSU will challenge for the ACC Title this year IMO. The coming home party of Anae and Armstrong will make that offense elite (they have way more talent than UVA ever had around Armstrong). Combine that with an always stout defense and I don't see Clemson, or FSU for that matter, running away with the conference.
I'm with you, more optimistic.
1. Penalties lost some games last year. The spring game suggests that's no longer a big issue.
2. A season of experience for young players, and for new coaches in first time positions as part of a first year crew in '22, coaching against unfamiliar opponents.
3. We lost a few by 1 or few points, largely due to lack of depth and offensive production, resulting in us leading or hanging in there until the later 4th quarter when the defense was gassed.
4. Upgrades in our talent and depth with more competition for playing time.
5. It seems a new team-wide optimism, with hopefully the last of the "not fully bought in" players gone.
6. Pry's full attention should be on head coaching, and I think Bowen's change to QB coach will be beneficial.
7. I think there's some indications Rudolph's system wasn't meshing well, or at the least getting players for his system was gonna take years. My gut says Crook is gonna work out better.
8. The schedule is tougher, but I don't think greatly so.
9. We just filled a need with one of the top DE pass rushers! Portal entry is closed, but we might still add depth or skill or hopefully some OL with the yet-to-be committed seekers.
LET'S GO HOKIES!
Idk Armstrong looked really bad at the Nc state spring game
I would take Spring Games stats/performances with a grain of salt.
I remember Dave Meyer out performing Mike Vick in 99. I seem to recall that season went fairly well.
That's cause Dave Meyer was a stud
It's betting lines so gotta make it interesting. Without much thinking my gut feel has us as a 5 win team +/- 2 wins. 4.5 is certainly intriguing and I'd love to bet the over for sure.
Yea, I feel like 5 wins would be a much tougher than 4.5. But wtf do I know lol?
Guaranteed we cannot push.
Had to look at UVAs schedule...their most likely road to 4 wins is William and Mary, BC, GT, and VT.....so I'm gonna say they don't get there.
If we go 6-6 and beat UVa, that's a successful season.
I think it's going to be close
DL is a bit better with Payne and Powell replacing Garbutt
LB basically has Tisdale replacing Dax though MacDonald will move inside, not Tisdale.
DB we replace Conner with stroman and Chatman/Murray with the DB out of GASO.
We saw our defense get hurt by long durations on the field. Hopefully, a year of S&C and some better offensive play will help. Another year in the system should help too. But I'm not sure how big a step the defense can take. Better conditioning and less time on the field should help alot though.
So really it's up to the offense and if the have an identity that works for them. The line has to play well if we want 5 wins. No run game will kill us, no time for the QB to throw will kill us. I really think the oline has to produce if we want 5 wins.
I mean, if offense improved from 125ish in FBS to 75ish, and the defense performs to the same level (top 40ish) then I feel good about us being bowl eligible.
Personally, I think this is possible given the talent upgrades. I think 5 wins is (just slightly) more likely than not.
Of the 65 P5 football programs in the country, there were only TWO teams who won less games than we did in 2022 (Colorado and Northwestern). Let that sink in for a moment. You have to be a really bad P5 team to win 3 games. And objectively, I can't say our roster is much better heading into 2023.
I'd be thrilled if we win 5 or 6 games, and I wouldn't be shocked if that happened. But I think there's a very real chance that 2023 looks a lot like 2022.
objectively, I can't say our roster is much better heading into 2023
objectively, we're looking at a 42-45% turnover to replace...what exactly?
The OL is still scary enough that 4 wins seems reasonable.
But it's easy to forget that we should've won 3 more games than we did.
I don't know. Nothing between 3 and 6 wins would surprise me.
Agreed. OL will be the reason for this team struggling this year. I like the Powell pickup on defense a ton and think we have some really good pieces on offense, but we are paper thin on OL and not great. Still thinking if we can go .500 and get to a bowl it will be success for this year. Anything less than 5 wins though and something needs to change.
Oh I would place my money on over,but I don't bet. My point is the defense isn't THAT different other than being a year older. Though with Payne I think we have more depth on DL. And on offense we have a lot more skill guys but if the line can't put it together then we are in for a world of hurt.
I mean, we should've also lost Liberty (based on post game win expectancy). Also, assuming GT is one of those three, they had a 51% postgame win expectancy (According to https://collegefootballdata.com/ advanced box scores; I think Bill C's data might be slightly different).
So, 1 percentage point over half.
Yeah, we still should've won.
No GT had a 51% post win expectancy. Meaning VT had 49% (less than half)
No, I get it, but 1 stat that's not very far in GT's favor isn't enough to change my mind.
We were up by 11 entering the fourth quarter. To me, that is "should've won" every time, no matter what the numbers say.
I think post-game win expectancy is a valuable metric, but on this specific game I agree with you. In the stands it felt like we were heading for a win the whole time until the fumble, and from there everything went wrong. Two score lead in the 4th definitely should have been a win. When you add the additional context that we let a freshman QB making his first start on the road execute that comeback, it's even more clear. Though to be fair, he did play most of the previous road game the previous week against FSU, which was his first college football game.
There's also mid-game win expectancy, which focuses on current score, time left on the game, and historical performance of each team (a Bayes statistical inference). Post-game win expectancy, on the other hand, is based on final metrics of that game, such as yardage and turn overs (probably a linear model that has fluctuating weights). Using mid-game win expectancy, if I remember correctly, VT had over 90% win expectancy (or something close to that) at some point in the 4th quarter of both NCSU and GT. I remember it was also pretty high late in the game for the Liberty game too.
Just a thought that post-game win expectancy is one useful statistical method and that there is also value in mid-game win expectancy that places greater value on current and prior data.
I understand, and don't entirely disagree.
My point is that football (by nature of the egg shaped ball that takes weird bounces) is a game of a lot of luck. Couple that with the fact that 18-22 year olds are not predictable or particularly consistent, and you get a result that can vary greatly from game to game. We (as fans) can't reasonably expect a team to play their best every game, but, over the course of the season, the good/bad luck, good/bad days, etc typically even out.
So, to my point, by saying 'we should have won 3 more games' doesn't count the games we 'should have' lost (like Liberty).
I am not an expert in statistical modeling of sports to make predictions. But I know who is. Trying to bring the O&M expectations in line with where we are instead of trying to think of why the experts are wrong so I don't have a melt down every time we look like a 7-8 loss team....... Trying to get back to those late 80's expectation so I can enjoy the ride back up instead of spending game day being pissed it's not like the early 2000's. We do not have a good football team. Hopefully we win a few we should not, and don't lose to the other bad teams we play.
6 wins is possible if we stay healthy, and I think a bowl after 3-8 signifies that the process is working
Bowen imo might be coaching for his job but is likely coaching to get off the hot seat, he's got to pull the plug on Wells if he decides he's the starter going into the season
Bet online puts VT futures line at 5 wins... a much tougher bet IMO
September will play a huge role in these win totals. ODU, Purdue, @Rutgers, and @Marshall are all winnable games.
History, and the quality of our team recently, suggests 4-0 is unlikely, but 1-3 to 3-1 all feel realistic. 2-2 feels most likely, though I certainly believe 3-1 is possible.
Similar to last year, the middle of the season (Pitt, @FSU, Wake) is pretty brutal. The book ends are manageable.
Agreed.
For me it comes down to:
How many wins do we get out of: ODU, Marshall, Rutgers, Purdue, Syracuse, BC and UVA?
Do we steal zero, one or two against: Pitt, FSU, Wake, Louisville and NC State?
These tier groupings could be wrong. I wouldn't be shocked if Purdue was better than a team in the second tier, for example, but getting them at home and early in the year seems like a positive for us.
I've found that if you bet against the ACC in football, you nearly always make money. Take the under across the board (except for VT of course)