2023-24 Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Volume 1

Do you see it?

Do you smell it?

Do you feel it?

Virginia Tech basketball is back

The Men's Team

Year 5 of CMYBall begins at 8pm tonight. Following last year's 19-15 (8-12) campaign, Mike Young sits 9th among all VT Men's Basketball coaches in wins (73), with Red Laird (77) and Don DeVoe (88) in reasonable striking distance. Should he pass DeVoe, Young would have had the 3rd best 5 year start at Virginia Tech, behind only Buzz Williams (100) and Charlie Moir (96).

The 2023-24 iteration of the Hokies is somewhat unique in modern times, among Hokie teams, in that there are 4 players at 6'9 or taller, Senior-laden with 5 players playing in their Senior year or older. Additionally, the roster has 6 post players and 6 guards. We have height and depth across the board.

As I was prepping this draft, news broke that highly rated guard Rodney Rice opted to step away from the team. Luckily with two weeks between that announcement and the start of the season, roster adjustments had time to be made. Not to speak ill of Rice, but, as he had only ever played in 8 games and hadn't started a single game for the Hokies, his loss won't be too strongly felt, as this team played 25 games without him last year, going 3-5 with him and 16-9 without.

But enough about that, what does the 2023-24 CMYBall team look like?

Scoring

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Hokies are replacing a ton of production. Scoring wise, the Hokies have to find a way to replace 4 of the top 6 scorers, who were regular contributors. For those keeping track at home, that's 45.6 ppg from a team that averaged 74.15.

Looking at who comes back we have among the guards are Jr PG Sean Pedulla who averages 10.1 ppg, followed by 5Y SG Hunter Cattoor (9.0), So SG MJ Collins (4.1), while incoming SO transfer SG Tyler Nickel averaged 2.1, coming off the bench for UNC. Expect incoming freshmen Brandon Rechsteiner and Jaydon Young to get some run early in the season as well.

At the post, the Hokies returning leaders are 6-10 Sr C Lynn Kidd (5.0 ppg), followed by 6-9 Sr F Mylyjael Poteat (3.4) and 6-8 So F John Camden (1.3). Also returning for the Hokies is 7' r-Fr C Patrick Wessler, who redshirted last season, but should factor in early and often for the Hokies. While the returning numbers are less than appealing, CMY hit the portal hard for bigs and came up with a pair that should do some damage. Leading the way is former ODU 6-7 SF Mekhi Long (Gr) who put up 10.7 ppg for ODU over 30 games. Raiding the Big Ten, Young found 6'9 PF Robbie Beran who contributed 7.5 ppg in 34 games for Northwestern.

A reasonable guess would be that the first starting roster would see Pedulla, Cattoor, Beran, Long, and Collins, which would be 41.4 points from the starting lineup. Assuming no increase in production and no production from the freshmen, the bench should accrue 11.8 points. Now, 53.2 ppg is not going to win a damn thing in major conference basketball, but you have to assume the Hokies will use a player the caliber of Nickel more than UNC did. Also, we should hope that there is some natural growth from year 1 to year 2 for Collins and Camden, and the production from Rechsteiner and Young will also be >0. I have nothing to base this on, but a gut feeling that 74 ppg should be attainable by this squad, if not higher.

Rebounding

If you were like me, you were frustrated game-in-game-out with the Hokies being outrebounded by seemingly (and actually) inferior opponents, and the numbers don't lie; the Hokies were outrebounded 33.3-33.8; good for 223rd in the nation in rebounding margin, and we were 265th in rebounds pulled down per game, behind somebody called CSUN.

All told, the sum of every rebound by a current player on the Hokies roster is 2,097 over 640 combined games. For comparison, Elizabeth Kitley (much....much more on her later) has pulled down 1176 rebounds in just 122 games. 10 players with 5 times the total number of games played have not even doubled her output on the boards.

If the Hokies are going to have a prayer in conference/tournament play, this stat must be rectified.

Assists

Keeping the ball safe and getting it to the scorers will be key for the Hokies. Last year the Hokies were...holy shit...5th in the nation at ATO margin at 1.57. That's elite level ball security, and that is why the Hokies finished last year with a winning record. Using my own statistic, called adjusted assist-to-turnover ratio, where steals deduct from turnovers, the Hokies finished with an AATO of nearly 3:1, which is mindbogglingly good. For comparison, #1 UVA had an ATO of 1.84 and an AATO of 9.55:1

Pack line is for cowards.

Experience/Depth

As stated earlier, this is a senior-laden, experienced roster with 640 combined games under their belts, well divided between guards and post players. Factoring in the walk-ons, there are 14 players on the roster, 6 forwards vying for 2 spots and 8 guards vying for 3. It is well within reason to expect the depth to be there. With 4-5 guards getting impact minutes and 4-5 post players doing the same. If the Hokies have a depth of 8-10 going into the bulk of ACC play, this should be one of the deepest teams in the ACC, if not the nation.

Next Window
The Hokies start off with a favorable opening tetrarchy of games. First the Coppin State Eagles who finished 9-23 last season. This game is sentimental to me as my first date with my now wife was the 2006 version of this game. The Eagles return just 4 players who averaged at least 5 minutes per game, (#5, 8, 9, 10) yet somehow they still have 4 seniors and 4 juniors on the roster. I would expect only 3 of those to be starters as the Eagles are mostly a 4 guard lineup and those returners are split evenly among position groups. Senior F Justin Winston (6-9) is the top returning scorer at 8.1 ppg and I would expect him to be that starting F. Guards Greg Spurlock (2.6 ppg) and Isaiah Gross (3.4 ppg) are probably two of the four guards the Hokies can expect to start. If I had to guess at the other two starters, it would be Daiquan Copeland, a transfer Sr from Morgan State (5.4 ppg) and Sr Malik Battle (2.4 ppg). The Eagles are going to be a good test for the Hokies on the boards as they do have a 7' freshman center, a 6'11 Jr Forward, 3 other 6'8+ Forwards and 4 6'5+ guards. This isn't a team that protects the ball well, though, so the Hokies should use this chance to get a strong jump in the ATO/AATO rankings.

Next is the Beamer Bowl...wait...wrong sport. The Hokies will then travel to Charlotte for an early neutral site game against South Carolina, who finished 11-21 last season. More experienced than the Eagles, the Cocks return 5 players from last year's squad who averaged greater than 5 minutes per game. They will probably all start as USC-E does tend to run a 3-2 guard lineup. 6-2 Jr G Meechie Johnson should provide the scoring leadership, returning 12.7 from last year. Fellow 6-2 Jr G Jacobi Wright contributed 7.3 as well. If they go with their returners as starters, expect the third guard to be 6-7 So Zachary Davis who contributed 2.2 off the bench last year. Down low, expect a heavy dose of 7'0 Sr F Josh Gray (4.3 ppg) and 6-9 Sr F Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk (1.9 ppg). If you're not picking up what I'm putting down, don't expect a lot of inside scoring for Sakerlina. Of note, they do also have former VT/Buzz Williams commit BJ Mack as their #3 big. They will pose something of a challenge to the Hokies on the boards, with the aforementioned 7-footer, as well as 6 other players 6-7 or taller. As with the Eagles, the Gamecocks do not protect the ball well. This is where we should hurt them.

Returning to Cassell, the Hokies will welcome the Campbell Camels, fresh off a 16-18 campaign last year. They also return five players who averaged 5 minutes per game or more last season, and they should also be running a 3-2 guard lineup. Top returning scorer Anthony Dell'Orso (6-6 So G) put up 12.5 last season, followed by 6-6 Sr F Laurynas Vaistaras (4.3), 6-4 Sr G Gediminas Mokseckas (3.4), 6-3 Jr G Jasin Sinani (2.9) and 6-5 So G Mason Grant (2.4). The Camels shouldn't give the Hokies much trouble on the boards, though they do have their own 7-footer and a 6-10 forward off the bench, as well as 4 more 6-6 or taller players. Their ATO last year was 12.2:11.9, so the opportunity to exploit turnovers is there.

Rounding out the window is the CMY classic against Wofford. Gone is their leading scorer (BJ Mack to South Carolina). The Terriers return only 4 of their players who garnered any significant minutes from the 22-23 campaign, the only campaign among the four in this window that resulted in a winning record at 17-16. I would expect Wofford to come out in a 4-guard lineup, anchored around true C 6-9 JR Kyler Filewich (6.7 ppg), led by 6-3 JR G Corey Tripp (8.8 ppg), 6-6 Jr G Jackson Sivilis (4.5 ppg), and 6-5 SO G Chase Martin (2.1 ppg).. I don't see much that could hinder Tech's ability to get on the boards, as this is a team that, outside of their Jr C has no experienced bigs. Like Campbell, this is a team that is in the neighborhood of 12:5:11 in ATO, so the chances are their to commit turnovers.

Prediction
The lament of Blacksburg is the lack of quality OOC games early in the year, this is no different. Nobody particularly worries me. 4-0 to start the campaign with CMY tying Laird at 77 wins.

The Women's Team.

What is good?

That is good.

But still not as good as the Virginia Tech Women's Basketball team.

Fresh off their FINAL FOUR run from last season, the Hokies are reloaded and looking for a chance to prove that wasn't a fluke.

Kenny Brooks is currently in his 8th season at the helm, 3 games back of Bonnie Henrickson for 2nd All-Time among VT Women's basketball coaches.

First, the departures. Gone are G Kayana Traylor and F Taylor Soule to the WNBA. Gone is G Ashley Owusu back to the Big Ten. Graduated are F D'Asia Gregg, C Clara Ford and G Taylor Geiman. Gone to Davidson is G Charlise Dunn. Gone to San Diego is G Maddie Vejsicky. Those losses account for 1 Center, 2 Forwards, and 5 Guards.

With 8 players from that Final Four team gone, how can I be thinking we have a shot at repeating or going any further?

First, the additions. Brooks hit the transfer portal like the USAF on a pin-point bombing run, grabbing exactly what we needed to reload. Graduate G/F Olivia Summiel joins the Hokies after 104 games (60 starts) with Wake Forest. Jr G Matilda Ekh joins the Hokies after 59 games (57 starts) at Michigan State. Rounding out the transfers in Jr F Rose Micheaux, coming in with 58 games (44 starts) at Minnesota. So while the Hokies are losing two starters and two significant bench players, they add three major conference starters. Now we'll talk about the incoming Freshmen. While she isn't a true Freshman, r-Fr Carleigh Wenzel comes in as the #44 overall and #10 guard of the 2022 class. Joining her will be #65 overall (#11 PG) Mackenzie Nelson, #69 overall (#12 PG) Samyha Suffren, #58 overall (#7 F) Carys Baker, and #95 overall (#12 Post) Clara Strack. Oh, and there's another Brooks daughter on the roster as well. By the time she leaves, Kenny might be staring down Carol Alford for #1 all-time in wins.

The eight new Hokies amount to 1 Center, 2 Forwards, 1 Wing, and 4 Guards, replacing all of the lost players from last season, like for like.

Now for the returners.

While the Hokies don't have many returners who contributed to last year's Final Four run, those they do are, for lack of a better descriptor, legendary.

First we have the sharpshooter and defensive ace Gr G Cayla King, back for her COVID year, having led the team 37.6% from range (minimum 1 attempt per game) King also seemingly provided the best perimeter defense last season.

Then the floor general. Virginia Tech's first ever Triple-Doubler. For two days, the all-time NCAA Tournament 3PM record holder. ACC Tournament Finals MVP, First Team All-ACC PG Georgia Amoore.

Is that enough for you? What is that you say?

1st Team Pre-Season All-American (2024), 2nd Team All-American (2023), 3rd Team All American (2022), 2 x ACC Player of the Year, 3 x First Team All-ACC, 57 double doubles, Virginia Tech's All-Time scoring, blocks, soon to have most starts, minutes, and rebounds, what else does she have to do to get some love around here, ESPN? Elizabeth Kitley.

Scoring

The top two (Kitley, 18.2 and Amoore, 16.3) scorers return as does number 5 (King 8.3). That's 42.8 from just those 3, and while I don't think it could happen, if they all tie their career highs on the same night, that would be 104 from that trio. The incoming transfers are led in career scoring by Ekh (11.8), Micheaux (9.28), and Summiel (5.1). 26.1 ppg from the incoming transfers, plus 16.8 for Kitley, 13.3 for Amoore, and 6.7 for King, and the Hokies have 6 players who combined are averaging 62.9 ppg. Given the quality of the recruits, I can easily see this team doing better than last year's 72.4 ppg mark.

Rebounding

The Hokies finished 32nd in rebounding margin, thanks in large part to #7 in the country Kitley's 376 rebounds. Alanna Micheaux finished 140th with 236, while Olivia Summiel swiped 185 boards.The 421 combined is comparable to Gregg's 215 and Soule's 203 (418). . Ekh had 34 fewer rebounds than Traylor, but did so in almost 300 fewer minutes. I would assume the two to be comparable over equal time.

Assists

Virginia Tech finished off 2022-23 with the 53rd best ATO margin in the country at 1.07, but that includes a terrible 52:75 in the tournament, or 91:114 in all of the postseason. Even the AATO was poor at 1.76:1 for the year. And that is the knock I have on Brooks' defense. No disruptive plays. The Hokies finished 337th in steals, only Oregon State was worse among Major conference teams.

Experience/Depth

All 3 Graduate students are expected to contribute as either as starters or as first or second off the bench. Senior Georgia Amoore and Juniors Micheaux and Ekh will also guaranteed be putting up major minutes. r-Fr Carleigh Wenzel is the only other player who is not a true freshman, but she is also expected to contribute heavily. That is a rotation of 7, which isn't great, so I am hoping one or two of the true freshmen are capable of at least providing a minute or two per game. Kitley already has 3939 minutes on her career, Amoore 3207, and King 3124.

Next Window

Virginia Tech will open the 2023-24 Brooksketball schedule against High Point. The 17-15 Panthers return seven players who netted at least 100 minutes over their 32 game season. Oddly enough 8 of those 10 were all guards. Both post players return, 6-3 SR C Amaria McNear, who finished with only 111 minutes last year and 1.2 ppg in the 13 games in which she played. Joining her in the post is 6-0 SO F Nevaeh Zavala who put up 2.7 ppg in her 178 minutes. Less than 300 minutes over 32 games tells me that this team might just only utilize a five guard rotation. Leading those potential five guards is Nakiyah Terrell, a 5-6 JR who averaged 10.4 last season. Following her are 6-0 SO Anna Hager (2.9 ppg), 6-1 SR Claire Wyatt (8.5 ppg), 5-2 SR Callie Scheier (7.8 ppg) and 6-1 JR Shakira Baskerville (5.1 ppg). High Point isn't a threat in the post, having only pulled down 31.0 rpg, so expect Kitley, Micheaux, and Strack to body people down low. They do have a high TO rate, so hopefully the Hokies can exploit that.

Next up...

In what may be a preview of either a Final Four or Finals matchup, the Hokies travel down to Charlotte to face last year's National Runner up Iowa. The Hawkeyes have 6 of their 9 major contributors returning, led...of course...by ESPN's favorite 6-0 SR G Caitlin Clark, who paced the team with, let me check my notes, 27.8 ppg. Good thing she can score 30 a night because nobody who scored more than 6.5 ppg (6-2 SO F Hannah Stuelke) remains from the squad that led the nation in scoring by over 3 points per game. 5-9 SR G Gabbie Marshall is the next leading scorer at 6.2, followed by 5-7 SR G Molly Davis (3.8 ppg), 5'11 JR G Sydney Affolter (2.9 ppg), and 6-3 JR F Addison O'Grady (2.0 ppg). Iowa slightly rebounded better than the Hokies last year, but they lost their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th top rebounders from last season. They are a team that moves the ball well, so the Hokies will need to play damn good perimeter D to have a shot.

Returning to Cassell, the Hokies square off against the Houston Christian Huskies, who finished 11-18 last season. The Huskies return 5 of their major contributors from a year ago, led by 6-0 SR F N'Denasija Collins who returns with 14.4 ppg and 7.9 rpg. Also returning are 5-6 SR G Kennedy Wilson (9.8 ppg), 5-4 JR G Enya Maguire (5.6 ppg), and 6-0 JR F Amy Cotton (
1.6 ppg).The Hokies have a clear advantage in height, rebounds, and should be aggressive on the defensive end in forcing turnovers.

Wrapping up this column will be UNC Greensboro, who finished last season 16-14). Returning 6 major contributors from last season, the Spartans are led into battle by 6-3 SR F Khalis Cain (8.1 ppg, 9.0 rpg), followed by 5-8 JR G Nia Howard (6.4 ppg), 5-11 G Isys Grady (8.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg), 6-2 JR G Kennedy Simpson (4.9 ppg), 5-11 SO F Antoniette Emma-Nnopu (4.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg), and 5-7 JR G Nasia Powell (9,9 ppg). This is a surprisingly tall guard team, and they all rebound well. They don't score well, nor do they protect the basketball well.

Prediction
The Hokies will easily win 3 of these games. Some of them should be over by halftime.

Iowa will be the tone-setter for the year. Who's losses in the offseason hurt worse? Given what I know about the two teams, I would expect to see Ekh covering Clark. The two squared off last season with Iowa winning in OT, but Clark was held to just 20% from range, and less than 33% overall. Kitley should absolutely own O'Grady or Stuelke down low, with Micheaux providing the extra body down low. King will probably be set on Marshall or Clark with Ekh taking over the other. Amoore will probably be on Davis or Marshall if King or Ekh is on Affolter. The only wildcard from Iowa that I am seeing is probably 6-0 JR G Kylie Feuerbach who sat out all last season, but other than that, Iowa had no transfers in over the offseason, so they are, pretty much, who they are. I think I have to give the edge to the Hokies on this one.

4-0.