This came across r/CFB today - Two years ago, FSU had just lost 31-23 to Louisville, dropping the Noles to 0-4 (8-16 over their last 24). At the time, FSU had the 20th most talented team, per 247's team talent composite. 20th in team talent composite is bad by FSU standards, but, in theory, any team with a top 20 talent composite should be much better than 0-4/8-16.
After this loss to Louisville, a reporter ask Norvell how he could possibly recruit new players given how poorly the program was recruiting (side note - this sentiment has been echoed frequently on TKP). Norvell calmly provided a measured response around his recruiting strategy, and how (my words, not his) the record didn't matter:
I know VT isn't FSU, but the parallels are there:
- An Offensive Line Rebuild
- Being two coaches removed from the guy who made the program, and the coach in between having a rocky relationship with the administration (Insert Pam from the office meme, this and this are basically the same thing).
- New Coach comes in and under achieves relative to the 'pure talent' on the roster
- 2 inexperienced coordinators: prior to the 2021 season, OC Kenny Dillingham and DC Adam Fuller had one total season of P5 experience between them - that was Dillingham's 2019 season at Auburn, in which he was not even allowed to call plays (Gus owned play calling).
I don't know if Pry can fix VT (trust me, I have my concerns). I don't know if Bowen/Marve can grow into half the coordinators that Dillingham/Fuller became. But, it does seem that, for every Mike-Elko-amazingly-blazing-fast-overachieving-rebuild, there's a slow, painful, blind-faith-trust-the-process, Mike-Norvell-esk rebuild.
I hope Pry can deliver on the latter, because he definitely isn't delivering on the former. Only time will tell. But he (we) need time.
Comments
We can only hope we can have a similar upward swing. It is hard to believe, because the top programs have way more potential to rise and rise quickly from a downturn. And while FSU might not be a blueblood, they are in the next tier and definitely a top 15 program in the country.
VT is good in recent history, but nowhere near that level. But FSU doing it at least makes it sound possible.
If you're looking for an example of a similar rebuild from a place not-FSU level, look at Wake Forrest under Dave Clawson. Two 3-9 seasons to start, followed by WakeyLeaks which stopped them from passing a 7 win (regular season) ceiling.
I think we can all agree that VT (as a program) is somewhere in between FSU and Wake.
Agreed Wake is a good example, and they don't have any advantages compared to us when it comes to size, fan base, history, etc.
I certainly would have been okay if we had their recent results instead of ours. Sad, but true.
I'll disagree with similarity point #3 (underachieving with the talent we have), but I have hope that there are things happening inside that are going to blossom in a year or two down the road. We knew this wasn't going to be easy, we told ourselves to expect a rebuild, and both are still very much true.
You do not think we're underachieving relative to our roster talent? Or you think FSU was not?
Here, here
I dont think we're underachieving with what we have. I think we're achieving what our talent is capable of, which right now isn't much of anything.
So, VT has the 100th best offensive and about the 50th best defensive according to SP+. I think defensively, that matches personnel (maybe even maxing the personnel out a bit). I think offensively, VT is still underperforming based on talent. VT has above average WRs, above average RBs, average QB, bad offensive line. I just don't see the talent to be in the bottom 25% of all FBS, and bottom 8% in P5. I don't know, maybe?
If the bad talent is in the wrong places like OL and LB it's hard if not impossible to makeup for that. The opposing defense can and is making us one dimensional, and we're allowing waaay too many rushing yards against.
VT offense hasn't been 1 dimensional since Drones has taken over. They've been really balanced. They're still the 100th best offense.
The rushing yards against still has VT at 50th best defense, which isn't great but probably on par with their talent level.
But the offense? The O-line is bad and QB play is mediocre, but is the talent worse than 90% of P5 teams 75% of all FBS teams?
The offensive line as a unit has to be close that bad. And as the line goes so goes the team. There's some good talent and wideout (some hurt) and Tuten looks great in space. But with such a porous line it takes exceptional scheming (which we haven't seen much of) or generational talent.
I'm still scratching my head what he went away from the run in the later part of the first half. Curious if it was scheme change by Marshall or Bowen outsmarting himself.
I think this point is getting overlooked when people talk about overall talent level compared to results. We may be talented in some areas, but not the ones that make others look good.
And when people talk about the roster composition being Pry's responsibility to get right (it is, not arguing that) there is an element to me forgetting that Gabe Williams is still on high school. Like the recruiting classes take a bit to get campus and onto the field.
Love the take, hope it turns out to be a similar story but have trouble drawing parallels based on administrative goals/support, funding and recruiting. Wake probably a better parallel as noted above^
I think at best we get a splashy position coach hire this off season to keep players/recruits excited with some accompanied shuffling of roles of the current squad. Really don't see OC or DC being canned in year two, more of a year 3 strategy unless the wheels completely fall off the rest of the year and every team blows us out
You should read the ESPN/FSU article I linked in OP. FSU administration was not funding football like its peer schools were, and it's the primary reason Jimbo left.
Even if you check places like the knight data base - if you remove the buyout money that FSU is paying Taggart, their total football spending isn't far from ours, and was well below Clemson from 2015-2020.
FSU was still in the We have the best coach ever and weight weigh the same mindset. If Bowden can win without Athletic Department money and Jimbo did the same why should we pay. I don't think we are as bad as they were but that's not a good thing because then money just fixes things. We have better facilities than what FSU has historically had.
Nothing else much matters until we see progress here, and it starts with recruiting heavily to build up the line. The OL is so bad right now its actively preventing us from even attempting to run an offense. Drones is running for his life out there, guys are through the line in less than 2 seconds almost every play. Its one of the most inconsistent OL units I've ever watched, they're getting whipped on the regular.
Nothing else much matters..... until we see progress here, and it starts with recruiting heavily to build up the line. The OL is so bad right now its actively preventing us from even attempting to run an offense. Drones is running for his life out there, guys are through the line in less than 2 seconds almost every play. It's one of the most inconsistent OL units I've ever watched, they're getting whipped on the regular.
I certainly hope we can achieve the same trajectory, but have my doubts. FSU has always recruited well, so having more raw talent to work with certainly gives you more margin for error. At this point I just don't know if top to bottom the VT athletics department is committed and/or knows what it takes to be a winning football program. FSU has powerful boosters and a great deal more financial resources. I feel like there is too much complacency with VT and not enough of a desire to be competitive at a championship level. As long as fans keep showing up and the few boosters we have get their access to the program, we kind of stay on cruise control.
Have you read the ESPN piece on FSU boosters that I linked in OP? There was definitely complacency there.
It's difficult for people to understand that turning around a football program can take different forms and periods of time based on the underlying circumstances of that program. I get it. It's tough to see a program, widely viewed to be materially beneath ours, in Duke, rapidly turn around after hiring a new coach.
The same criticisms people throw at Pry for not turning around VT as quickly as Elko has turned around Duke could have been said about Norvell at FSU. FSU is 4-0, with complete control of their destiny to the playoff, having already taken down a top 15 LSU team at a neutral site, and finally beaten back the dominant conference team they haven't beaten since 2014 in Clemson, and on the road to boot. I think any FSU fan right now would tell you the patience (even if they themselves weren't so patient in the moment) given to Norvell was ultimately worth it.
That said, our situation is also not identical to FSU, but I do think it's somewhat closer in overall profile as illustrated by Bar.
We're less than two years into a 5 year rebuild. Once you've mixed the cake and put it in the oven, you don't fret over it, as it needs a minimum amount of time to bake. Pulling it out after 10 minutes doesn't ever help.
In other words, the die is cast. Give Pry the support he needs right now.
And we're supposed to believe you're a pie person? I think you just outed yourself.
Well he's got my support
I will say, in your metaphor, if you forgot key ingredients or added shitty ingredients, if you wait for the cake to finish baking, you end up with a terrible cake, wasted time, and have to start over. If you realize your mistakes in the middle of baking, you can fix or abort and restart the process sooner.
That said, I think Pry needs to assess whether he has the right ingredients. I think he knows player personnel wise, he's still short and needs to fix it. But I also hope he realizes that he may have misjudged on his coaching personnel and needs to make adjustments there too. It's tough to truly extrapolate the ability of the coaching and coordinating with these players, but it's an important that he truly assesses his staff at this stage.
The point is that NO cake, even WITH the right ingredients is going to succeed if you don't give it the time it needs.
But I do agree, and I think Pry would as well, that he needs to evaluate the current trajectory and make adjustments. He knows he doesn't have the ingredients he wants.
Not to get all "preachy" (I spent 20 years as a pastor), but there's a cool little parable in the NT...
Basically it's about a guy (farmer) who plants seeds in the ground then goes home and goes to sleep. He is committed to the natural process and sleeps because he trusts those things that are inherently true about nature, even the awful things over which he has no control.
I very much appreciate the sentiment from the OP and think that Pry has a strategic plan, one that we can all see even if the results aren't there. That is a far cry from the previous staff, which seemed to never have a plan in place.
The only thing Pry, and all the fans, can do is trust the process he believes in - work it - then rest at night.
This off-season, all Pry needs to do is go get MSU's best WR, the best G5 DT (a 4 star), a 4 star OT from UTEP, USC easts best edge Rusher, a DT starter from Miami, and a 340 lb OT from Auburn... then we are rolling.
Noticeably absent from your list- qb. It's the most important piece of a college team and we don't have one
No confidence in the staff developing Drones or Pop?
I'll gladly take 3 OL over 1 QB. Even one mature OL who can be a leader would be preferable to a new QB imo (unless we're talking Tyrod-level qb, but that ain't happening yet).
Agreed - I'd rather have a good OL than a good QB. You can reach the highest peaks with a good OL (Nick Foles winning the Super Bowl, for example), but even the best QBs will get handcuffed by a bad OL (Cam Newton's entire career after SB50).
One thing I have liked seeing out of our current staff is an emphasis on bulking up both the OL and DL through recruiting. If they are able to get those fixed in somewhat short order, it'll do us more good than one elite QB ever could.
I will see you Nick Foles and raise you Trent Dilfer and Joe Flacco.
But I agree, I would raid MSU and NW if available for their OL and DT's.
Qb arguably less important in nfl than college
Say what?
LOL agreed. Exhibit A on how important the QB position is in the NFL.
Mike Leach said it best and I couldn't agree with him more- the NFL is awful at scouting QBs. Awful. They break simple rules - like drafting guys that sucked in college- Richardson with the colts, Trubisky with the Bears. I mean, seriously. Run the tape. They draft 5'09 guys, guys that can't throw, guys that had 3 good starts- all high in the draft. They suck at it honestly. They do OK with the can't miss pocket passers like the Mannings, but a million QBs were drafted ahead of the best QB to ever play in the NFL. I can save the colts time now, just like I could have saved the 49ers with Trey Lance. They suck. He and Richardson can't play in college, what makes you think they can play in a man's league? Also the next inaccurate passer in college to make it in the NFL will be the first. They are awful at scouting QBs.
The two biggest inductor of success for QBs in the NFL is number of starts in college and accuracy. The NFL seems to not know this somehow. Look I know we all love the deep ball, but if Chad Pennington can have an 11 year career and was 2nd in MVP voting one year, the deep ball doesn't really matter to win in the NFL.
EDIT: I read wrong and pennington was 2nd in mvp voting to Peyton.
Yeah 11 mediocre-at-best years. Chad Pennington was MAC MVP, not NFL MVP lmao
He won 54% of his games placing him above Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matt Hasselbeck, Trent Dilfer and a number of other QBs that when to a superbowl.
Wins are not a quarterback stat but sure. Never made a pro bowl (everyone makes the pro bowl), never made an all-pro
So you're agreeing with the point of this thread that an outstanding QB isn't needed in the NFL?
It's dumb to plan on having a bad quarterback and you should want to have a great quarterback. Teams who have won in spite of bad qb play aren't exactly proving much. On the flip side, quarterback can play excellently and still lose the game because of poor defense, poor coaching clock management, etc.
Ask the Jets how they feel going from Rodgers to Wilson this year.
Josh Allen was less accurate in college than Ryan Willis
Josh Allen's first NFL game set a record for being horrible.
Because Nathan Peterman started it?
I'm not saying QB is not important in the NFL. I'm saying QB is MORE important in college. A pro team can win a super bowl with a mid level QB. You pretty much have to have a Heisman contender at QB to make it to the playoff, let alone win a championship.
Okay, that I will buy.
That is why they make a fifth of the team cap or approximately 50 million a year.
I've said it over and over again here:
Take any SEC QB and put them on our team. Maybe they make VT marginally better - I think Jayden Daniel's increases our win total by 1. Now, give VT the 8th best OL in the SEC - the team is now 3 wins better.
Ehh...I think there is more to a good offense than oline. It's absolutely a critical part but I'm not convinced that fixing that alone turns us into a 4-0 team right now.
Oh, I agree, but I think we're pretty good at receiver and RB, and okay enough at QB. OL IMO is the glaring talent drop off.
IMO Improving the (entire) OL from complete dog shit to okay enough takes us from being a 2/3 win team to being 5/6 wins. Getting anything shy of a top 5 dual threat QB moves us from 2/3 wins to 3/4.
To further illustrate my point - here's a(n admittedly arbitrary) list of the top 15 QBs in CFB right now. Who on this list would put our current team in a bowl game? Caleb Williams for sure, maybe Jayden Daniels, and I'd listen to an argument for Pratt, but I think Fritz's offense is so unique, it's tough to say how he'd translate to this team.
Also worth mentioning that we've seen Bo Nix and Sam Hartman both elevate their level of play when they got a better coach and more talented OL.
I just don't think that improving the QB position will result in significantly more wins (again, unless we go out and get a top 5 dual threat QB - that's a completely different proposition)
I think you and I are probably more in agreement than we think but I also think we're looking at this from two different angles. I'm not arguing that getting a top notch QB will solve our problems. Actually, I think the bigger issue is in the booth, not the locker room.
We agree that the OL is complete garbage and needs to be upgraded pretty urgently. I think we also agree that bringing in a different QB isn't going to really move the needle that much (maybe netting a win or two, max)
I think what you're missing is that I just don't think Tyler Bowen has the chops to do well with upgraded pieces. Good coaches are able to work with the pieces they have, mitigating their weaknesses and emphasizing their strengths. He hasn't done that. Everyone and their sister knows that our OLine is our biggest offensive weakness and yet Bowen's plan all season has been to ram our RB into the line over and over again. It's maddening.
I don't think that getting the 8th best OL in the SEC would necessarily get us to 4-0 because I don't trust Bowen to know what to do with the 8th best OL in the SEC. We have a talent issue in Blacksburg. That much is clear. I also think we have coaches who just don't really know what they're doing. We should be better than we are given the talent we do have. Our talent is bad, but it's not so bad that we should be struggling with ODU and losing to Marshall. Coaching has absolutely fallen short as well.
Before last season I was skeptical of Bowen. After last year I thought it was unlikely that he would make it as an OC. 1/3 of the way through this season and I'm pretty confident that he's not going to be our OC if/when we ever field an offense in the top half of college football. He's just not good enough.
That's fair. I too was/am skeptical of Bowen. I think I lie closer to 'I don't know' than 'he has to go'. Time will tell. We'll see where we are at the end of the season, but I agree it's not looking good right now.
if "love him, he should stay" is at 0, "I don't know" is at 50 and "he has to go" is at 100 I'm near 75. I started around 50 at the beginning of last year. Over the last 15 games I've been steadily edging towards 100 but I'm not there yet. He's young and inexperienced. He has a tremendous challenge with a disastrous mess left behind from Fuente. His tenure here, at least the early part of it, certainly deserves some asterisks. But given how things have gone thus far, I see very little to be optimistic about with him.
I could really see him going either way. He could move on and turn out to be one of the best OCs in CFB or he could fizzle out and never make it and neither of those outcomes would really surprise me. I just wish we had started off with someone who had some meaningful experience and had proven themselves as an OC elsewhere. I think it was a mistake for Pry to hire someone so green to take on the monumental challenge of resurrecting an offense from the ashes left behind by the previous regime.
Yea, I get that. I'm probably a 60 on the scale. Really want to see how this next offseason goes.
With Drones in I've backed more off the ledge. The play calling seems to make more sense when he is in. We still get a lot of runs that we just can't succeed at, but we also get a lot of plays that if Drones just starts running or has a slightly more consistent arm we'd look way better. For as much as Drones runs he really doesn't take the easy first downs with his legs, he looks to pass, which is good if you can make all the throws, but we'll he needs more work on that. Some of that is coaching, some of that is players, but with Drones I'm questioning the play calling less and more questioning what is being taught because I feel like a 1 read and run offense like Evans had would do us way better for where Drones is at development wise. Now skinny down the playbook is coaching but it's not can Bowen be a good play caller, it's can he get the most out of his players which is a fine line to me, but different. Stienspring got the most out of the players but the play calling was terrible. Loeffler loved calling drive killing plays at the perfect time to stop us. I don't get that feeling from Bowen. But if you can't get the most out of your talent then you're going to get fired even if you have a sane game plan and plays.
absolutely, coordinating an offense is way more involved than just calling plays. Evaluating the talent available, scheming an offense based on said 'talent', watching film and identifying weaknesses/strengths of our own offense as well as our opponents' defenses, coaching and developing the players to put them in position to succeed, calling plays, etc. - it's a big job and it's not an easy one. It's why it pays so well and why so many men try and fail. I think Bowen is just another one of those guys who is trying and failing.
My post was what FSU got in the portal last year- as comparison. Since they have the best QB in the ACC already, they didn't need one of those.
We are not FSU, we are not Clemson...but we will eventually be VT again.
Pry says VT was Clemson before Clemson was Clemson, so maybe we are Clemson?
To be fair, Clemson was VT before VT was Clemson
This works in multiple ways
Chokies = Klempsoning?
I mean there are parallels everywhere. I was mainly referring to being really good back in the day before having a period where the teams fell off and became a shell of what a school with the funding and resourced they have should be.... But yeah, that too
Big tear in the space-time continuum to think about if Clemson chose Bud over Dabo.
Checking the flux capacitor!
This is what I don't get when this talk of FSU having all of this leverage against the ACC. In the past decade they have sucked more often than they've been good. They have been a mediocre team that has played well now that they have a talented quarterback. Um, isn't this pretty much every team?
Besides Clemson, which ACC school has the most total wins in the past 10 years?
(Notre Dame doesn't count either.)
From CFB Saturdays:
And if you go fifteen or twenty years, how much higher are we...
Idk, but according to The Two Deep pod if you just do the last 8yrs Pitt is #2. 🤮
Well you see, they are FSU- The mighty Noles. So they are entitled to Alabama's TV package. Period. They are FSU. Doesn't matter if they lost 7 straight to Clemson and lost for a month staight last year- pffft. They deserve Ohio State's TV package. They are FSU- so in order to pay players for play illegally, they need to do so on the Texas/Michigan level to win championships - which they are entitled to. So they are leaving. Simple. ESPN is going to back the brinks truck up for them.
Besides Clemson, which ACC school was the most watched in 2022?
Good for them. Leave- they deserve it
Man, fuck FSU. They didn't say shit 15 years ago when their sorry asses were getting carried along by VT, GT and fucking BC while they wallowed in their own shit in the post-Bowden years, but now that they've sniffed a little bit of the potential for success they want to peacock like they are owed the world? Fuck them
I don't mind if FSU throwing this temper tantrum gets us to the point where we end up in the SEC or Big Ten, but lets not for a fucking second sit here and think they are justified in all this clamoring and claiming that they are deserved more than everyone else because of who they are because we all know goddamn well that one of the biggest reasons our TV contract is at the level of shit it resides in is because of their own performance from 2004 through basically 2021, with one brief time with Jameis Winston as the lone exception. So once again, fuck them, they're a major part of the reason we're in this fucking mess to begin with.
Nobody is saying they are justified. Just posting FACTS that seem to be ignored. That doesn't make them a goose that lays golden eggs, just makes them attractive. And in the landscape of the current ACC, they are #2 behind Clemson.
And that's the damn thing, FSU is only peacocking now because they're the hot shit. 15 years ago, when their sorry asses were being dragged along they didn't say a goddamn thing because they knew they didn't deserve the payout they were getting at the time. But now, oh now its a problem, because now they're in the cycle of being good and suddenly they're not benefiting off everyone else's accomplishments anymore.
Screw em. I don't give a shit that they're #2 in the conference right now. We were at worst #2 in this damn thing for the first 10-15 years or so after they expanded in 2004 and apparently that means fuck-all right now. I repeat, screw them, if they were worth half a shit when the TV deal was negotiated we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
Pull the band aid off- go, leave, go be the 4th best program in the B1G East
Amen . Amen, Amen. If we were in the glory days of "wide right" when FSU/Miami was a much bigger fucking game than Bama/LSU or the Iron Bowl every year, we wouldn't have had to suck notre dame's cock to keep the champs sports bowl in our rotation- which is essentially what that deal was. They raped us, we keep the champs bowl. yay. If FSU and Miami were great and winning titles at the time, this conversation is moot and our TV deal is much better. But when we were negotiating it- Paul Johnson was running up Clemson's ass with a high school offense. Joy. Miami has sucked since joining the ACC, and UNC can't fill their stadium. Seriously fuck these teams. They were ZERO help when we really needed it.
Just think, many years ago when looking at the future schedule and you saw ODU, Rutgers, Marshall, and Purdue on the schedule, you thought...gonna go 4-0 that year...my point is things change over time, good and bad...speaking of, who do we play OOC in 2033?!
BYU and ND!
BYU - VT, what a weird matchup.
Might be a conference game by then though.
Ditto Arizona-VT and (fingers crossed) some of the SEC games below?
OOC Schedules starting five years in the future-(though throw it all out the window if massive realignment occurs)
2028
Sept. 2 Liberty Blacksburg, Va.
Sept. 9 Old Dominion Blacksburg, Va.
Sept. 16 at Maryland College Park, Md.
Nov. 4 Notre Dame Blacksburg, Va.
2029
Sept. 1 Liberty Blacksburg, Va.
Sept. 8 at Arizona Tuscon, Ariz. (could be hot as Hades "but it's a dry heat!")
Sept. 15 Maryland Blacksburg, Va.
Sept. 22 at Old Dominion Norfolk, Va
2030
Aug. 30 Arizona Blacksburg, Va.
Sept. 7 at Liberty Lynchburg, Va.
Sept. 14 at BYU Provo, Utah
Sept. 21 Old Dominion Blacksburg, Va.
2031
Sept. 6 at Old Dominion Norfolk, Va.
Sept. 12 Wisconsin Blacksburg, Va. (believe THIS when it actually happens- 'Originally scheduled 17 years ago on June 16, 2006, the Wisconsin-Virginia Tech series has now been postponed not one, not two, not three, but FOUR times! The two schools were initially supposed to meet in 2008 and 2009'
2032
Sept. 4 Ole Miss Blacksburg, Va.
Sept. 18 at Wisconsin Madison, Wis. -- see above lol
2033
Sept. 10 BYU Blacksburg, Va.
Nov. 5 at Notre Dame Notre Dame, Ind.
2034
Sept. 2 Alabama Blacksburg, Va.
Sept. 16 at South Carolina Columbia, S.C.
2035
Sept. 1 at Alabama Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Sept. 15 South Carolina Blacksburg, Va.
2036
Sept. 1 Notre Dame Blacksburg, Va.
2037
Sept. 5 at Ole Miss Oxford, Miss.
I really want those Ole Miss games to actually happen.
Reviving this thread since the regular season is over... who thought we were finishing 6-6 after starting 1-3?
College football is wild.
I have an email thread with a colleague where I stated
"we may be staring at 2-10 in the face"
And I wasnt even that confident about the second win xD
To be fair, I felt the same way.
As did I. Helluva turnaround from where we all thought we were heading on September 30
Before the season I said I thought we could have the same record as last year while playing significantly better, and want feeling great about either at this time. I was very pleased, if not surprised to see the execution and results take a huge leap for the positive after this thread was posted. The coaching finally took hold
That's why you gotta drop your bets on over 5.5 reg season wins before the first snap and let 12 games happen.
I took the over at 5.5 wins but was pretty sure I'd wasted my money 4 games into the season. Glad to be pleasantly surprised.