Looking ahead, I've seen a lot of people talking about the ACCCG and potentially a dark horse for the playoffs. I would expect any chance of winning the championship game and playoff potential depends on who we would face. Looking at the top teams this year, the potential teams would be FSU, Louisville, and NC State. Given what we bring back and what we picked up in the portal, I think we could take State next year.
Given how bad we got pounded by FSU and Louisville, I thought we could give ourselves some off-season fodder by evaluating the rosters from those two schools and look at what of their production returns for each team vs what they lost in the portal or NFL draft declarations. Was thinking maybe someone who is good with tables could do something like list who each team is losing and what their per game production was and/or maybe how they performed against us specifically. Then take a look at how we think we might match up next year.
I know there are some metrics that are put out about returning production, but not sure when they come out, but could include that in the discussion as well.
Comments
I am not sure what shape FSU is going to be in next year. I know they were missing 29 players in their bowl game to opts out, transfers, etc. How many actually left as opposed to didn't want to play in a worthless bowl?
They will get what they need in the portal $$$$$
No doubt in my mind.
Requisite *knock on wood*
Also of note on paper the ACC looks a lot stronger as a whole in the QB department next year, as French noted we benefitted quite a bit playing teams that were entirely incapable of throwing. The conference brought in some experienced guys that have put up some good numbers in DJU (FSU), McCord (Cuse), McCall (NCST) and some big names that don't have as much playing time but a lot of upside in their small sample size in Brown (Miami) and Murphy (Duke) with guys that found their stride late season King (GT) and Klubnik (Clemson).
5/6th year QBs do tend to play better- more experience, older - approaching their 30's
Even with that, we were getting some good penetration on most of the lines we faced. I assume most team's lines aren't any better given the discussion we've had about the limited amount of offensive linemen in the portal. And I'm not sure how it ended, but guessing we were first or second in the ACC in sacks. That will make a difference even if teams are bringing in better passers.
And we have a pretty strong secondary that will make it more difficult for passers anyway. My fear will still be facing teams with a good line and rushing attacks.
What about what State picked up in the portal? They picked up some pretty good offensive players such that it won't be all Concepcion next year:
Add that they have a pretty dang good OC in Robert Anae, they could have a pretty good, pretty good offense in 2024.
I have no idea how they're replacing All-American Payton Wilson, or if their D will be as good as it was in 2023, but that's typically not an issue with Doeren's teams. They are getting two CBs and a S in the portal.
Payton Wilson is fucking good at football. Don't think there is any replacing that. Plug someone in and hope they can produce half as much as he did and they will be fine.
VT should be top 6 in the ACC next year - along with Clemson, FSU, Miami, NC State, and Louisville - and should probably be top 4 given upward trajectory, returning talent, etc.
My big concern is offensive line and MLB. Offensive line will improve, but how much? As far as Mike goes, we still don't have a true MLB on the roster yet IMO (unless I missed something). Because of those gaps, I don't see us winning the ACC next year.
That means that getting in the 12 team playoff will require a lot of luck. We basically have to finish top 2 in the ACC, and finish better than all but 5 other P2/B12 teams. Simply put, we need to finish inside the top 10.
Does anyone think finishing inside the top 10 is likely for this team next year? 2009 was our last top 10 year end finish. 2011 was the last time we were in the top 10 at all.
I like the premature offseason hype train because this makes college football fun. But I'll be expecting to finish top 6 of the ACC next year, hoping to be in the top 4, and really excited if we make the championship game.
My first thought was that it's not really a bold prediction for us to be in the top half of the conference next year. I'm still adjusting to the last round of ACC expansion apparently lol.
I think 8-4 is a totally reasonable expectation. It would show clear growth and that we're a top 35 team. I'd be ecstatic about 9-3 or 10-2. 11-1 and yea holy shit I'm going crazy yelling about a playoff appearance to anyone and everyone
If Drones and Tuten are healthy all year and most of the key players don't miss significant time on defense, i would be disappointed with anything less than 8 wins to be honest.
I think based on returning production and improvement throughout the season all of Vandy, Marshall, Rutgers, UVA, Duke, Stanford, Cuse, BC, and GT should be wins or at least favorites. Miami and Clemson will likely be losses with Miami being an away game next year.
I have little confidence in us going much above 8-4 and I think you'd be wrong to be overly disappointed with anything less. While we should absolutely beat Vandy, Marshall, ODU, BC, and UVA (as well as Syracuse & Stanford but having away games in CA and NY in back to back weeks is *brutal*) we still have some obvious holes in the roster and the rest of the schedule presents some challenges:
Rutgers beat us soundly last year.
Duke will likely still have a competitive defense, Diaz isn't the best head coach but with what Elko built they'll be a tough out.
Clemson was under the radar in a way last year but hung with FSU and Miami, and beat a good Kentucky team in their bowl game.
GT is oddly not terrible?
I can see 8-4 easily.
We should beat Rutgers this year. We played them before we had figured out our offensive identity and became a little more gap sound on defense. Monangai isn't rushing for 143 yards and 3 TDs on us again and Tuten will have more than 45 yards rushing. Add on to that we'll have Lane and Jennings available I see no reason why we won't be favored.
Assuming we lose every close game on our schedule in Miami, Duke, Clemson, and GT would be a disappointment to me with the trajectory of our program.
It's a fair point, but I still strongly believe that 8-4 is right about what we should be expecting for next year.
If there's another game that we fumble along the way I won't see it as overly disappointing.
The hype train has been full speed but I still have concerns about LB and OL and we'll just have to see how that looks when toe meet leather next year.
Duke lost a lot in the portal (ranked 17th in ACC by On3). They lost key players including QB, RB, DL, and secondary. They also graduate a fair amount too. Diaz was not dealt a great hand personnel wise (just due to bad timing). If Duke makes a bowl game next year, it will be a major accomplishment by Diaz.
I think this is a fair and measured take.
I don't think we sniff the playoffs next year unless we win the ACC. Unless something wildly crazy happens in the other conferences and it's just a down year for everyone, I don't think you will see 2 ACC teams in the 12 team playoff. The ACC (fair or not) just doesn't have the respect of the committee. I think the SEC will get at least 3 teams in. The B1G likely gets at least 3 as well. Then I think the ACC and BigXII champs will take the next two spots and the last four will go to G5 Champs and/or 10 win SEC/B1G teams that aren't already in (for reference, the two leagues had a combined 9 teams with 10+ wins). The only way I can see two ACC teams making it is if two 12-0 teams meet in the ACC CG and it's a close game. Outside of FSU (and I'm not even sure they can do it again with all their departures) I really don't see any teams in the ACC that are built to slog through a 12 game season unscathed. I don't think FSU goes undefeated again but if they do I think the odds that ANOTHER ACC team ALSO goes undefeated are about as good as my odds of winning the powerball.
It'll take a miracle (or a series of miracles) for VT to reach the playoff next year. I do expect to see improvement, though. I don't know if we'll see quite as significant of a jump from year two-three as we saw from one-two but I expect to see steady progress. I think finishing with 8 or 9 wins would be both a reasonable expectation and a fairly successful campaign, so long as recruiting continues to trend upwards.
If VT manages to win 10+ regular season games it will be a really pleasant surprise and one hell of a fun season! I still think playoffs are out of the question unless we win the ACC.
It's a 10 team playoff. 9 if Bama doesn't win the SEC. ND and Bama are in unless they have 4 losses. So go from there- not hyperbole. If Bama is 9-3 and doesn't win the SEC- that's 2 spots right there. It's really honestly an 8 team playoff end of the day. Ohio State is in too unless they are 8-4.
oh, I forgot all about ND. The ACC definitely isn't getting two in that case.
I would not be shocked if 7 of the 12 spots are ND and the B1G SEC. So VT will likely need a 1 loss season to snag one of the other 5 spots. Isn't a G5 champ guaranteed too? so 4 spots if that is the case.
if a G5 is guaranteed a spot then the ACC should also be guaranteed a spot. So, technically we could get in with more than 1 loss if we win the ACC. I think both are unlikely, though. I see VT winning 9 games in 2024. Anything more than that would be bonus
The former P5 champions (RIP P12) are already guaranteed a spot in the 12 team play off. Pretty sure before the P12 broke up it was to be set at automatic bids for the p5 champs, plus an automatic bid to the highest ranked G5 champion, and then 6 at large bids supposedly going to the next 6 highest ranked teams once you get past the automatic bids.
so, much like bar1990 said, VT would likely have to be top 10 to make it in if we don't win the ACC. And the loser of the ACC isn't going to be top 10 unless they were undefeated going into the ACCCG and lost a close game to another undefeated team.
6 spots go to conference champs, leaving 6 spots for ND, LSU, Bama, OSU, Penn State, Washington, USC, Texas. VT's only path to the playoff is winning the ACC and I think that's a tall order for 2024 and an unreasonable expectation.
Agree. So basically we are where we are now with the exception that the ACC champ will be guaranteed a spot. It would take two top 5 ranked undefeated ACC teams going into the ACCCG for there to even be a remote chance that the ACC gets two into the playoff.
Win the ACCCG and you are in, otherwise you are likely out.
Technically the P12 still exists and depending on the words of the Contract that means that either Washington State or Oregon State is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
Even with the top 2 in each P5 conference, MAYBE 1 or 2 G5 teams (more likely if they're undefeated). The B-12 second place team had 4 losses, so if we were a 1 or 2 loss team we could beat out some others for a playoff spot. But again, we need to win all our games, which seems much more do-able next year, especially with who we play and all the players we return.
Current wording is the top 6 conference champs are guaranteed. That means that UGA/Bama, OSU/Mich, and ND take up 3 of the 6 "at-large" spots. So there are 3 spots for those other teams that don't win their conference. The SEC will have some one avoid the good teams and put up a good record while their best win is over a 7-5 Kentucky. So that really leaves 2 spots for 3rd B10 and 4th SEC and all other teams.
Using this year's results with next year's conf:
1) Michigan B10 Champs
2) Texas SEC champ
3) FSU ACC champ
4) Arizona B12 Champ
5) Oregon St MWC champ
6) Liberty eww
7) Bama - at large
8) OSU - at large
9) ND - At large
10) Washington - maybe
11) UGA - at large
12) Oregon, PSU, Mizzou spot
We are fighting for 12th if we don't win the conference and it doesn't look good since Those are all top 10 teams.
As gross as their inclusion in the CFP would have been, watching Liberty getting sacrificed to the football gods and Alabama to the tune of 80 points would have almost made it worthwhile.
The rules were written as 6 conference champions, but didn't specify which conferences. Of course, intent was the champions of each P5 conference and 1 G5 champion. I'm guessing that they will amend that rule down to 5 with 7 at large.
In practice, the playoff will be the top 3 SEC, top 3 B1G, ACC champ, B12 champ, G5 champ, ND, and two at large bids among the rest (and only 1 at large if they don't change the 6 conference champions rule).
I feel like G5 shouldn't be guaranteed a spot unless they are conference winner AND undefeated.
Then you'll just have liberty who plays no one get completely dominated again next year.
To be fair, it could be JMU getting completely dominated in the playoff. Maybe JMU and Biberty can have a play-in game to see who's the sacrificial lamb.
Just Liberty? I'm confused - I'm saying I don't think G5 conference winners should get an automatic bid unless they are also undefeated, making it LESS likely that a G5 (whatever conference is "the best" in the best 6 conferences outside the P5) team is actually selected. Maybe it is Liberty, but it also leaves open the door for a team like the undefeated UCF team a number of years ago that was probably WAY better than undefeated Liberty.
At least UCF played a couple of real teams. Liberty doesn't have a P5 opponent on their schedule until they play us in 2027 and we're their only P5 opp for the foreseeable future. Even with the undefeated caveat there should be some SOS qualifier for the G5 I don't think Liberty was even close to the best G5 team this year...
That's where I'd take the wording of the "6 best" conferences and say it rules out their conference as one of them. Not sure how the 6 best are determined, but, yeah, UCF had I think at least one fairly good SEC team on their non-conference slate that proved they weren't just beating up on a crap conference.
BAMA ain't guaranteed shit anymore, Saban's hex on the playoff committee will only last another season or 2.
I kind of wish they would just go back to a computer formula like the BCS instead of a committee.
Everyone knows the formula all season and it can provide added weight for a conference championship.
Here is how the BCS formula would have selected this year's playoff:
#1 Michigan
#9 Penn State at #8 Oregon
#4 Florida St
#12
Ole Miss JVOklahoma at #5 Texas#3 Alabama
#11 Ole Miss at #6 Georgia
#2 Washington
#10 Missouri at #7 Ohio State
Edit: Whoops, Ole Miss JV squad isn't top 12
The algorithms are much better know too. Idk if it was on TKP or somewhere else on the internet, but I liked the idea of a computer model having a weighted vote on the committee. So like 8 "voters", but the computer accounts for 3-4 of them.
Ole miss got two teams in the playoff? Damn, I guess the sec really does mean more
I think we still finish top 4 in the ACC next year, but your points are kind of what I was thinking. Unless other teams lose a lot, I don't see us winning the ACCCG. If we win out otherwise, maybe one loss, I doubt we finish top 10. Maybe around 15 I'd guess. Maybe as high as 12ish. So maybe there is a shot for the playoffs depending on any losses other than the conference championship.
Security will be escorting y'all off the hype train at the next stop.
EZ 2024 ACC CHAMPS —> CFP BABYYYY CHOO CHOO
We could be 12 or 18.
This has to be adjusted with Saban news.
Bama probably drops down to about 6ish
20 is the funniest one to me.
Needs to be a Mississippi school spot. Seems like every season since the beginning of BCS era there's a Mississippi school ranked up there so that when their inevitable clobbering happens it helps a top SEC team's strength of schedule.
Do you want to be the best team in the league this year, or the best team in the league, ever?
What I saw this year is that at the end of the season, when pieces were in place and we had worked out some bugs, we were beating the teams we were supposed to beat. Soundly. With the production we return and some new faces from the portal I don't see us regressing. I think having Jennings back is going to be huge. An injury could derail our momentum, but I see us handling business when we're supposed to and playing competitive when we need to. If we can plug some obvious holes and have progression where needed, it's going to be hard not to be a fairly good team.
Since it looks to be rumors at the moment, felt this was the best place to flag there is some chatter the ODU series might be ending early.....
Also, given the nature of this story, it's worth creating its own thread.
Well if we are turning them into a VT farm league team...
Even based on what we saw after Drones took over, I'm not sure we can win the ACC.
We beat the teams we were supposed to be and did so soundly. But when we played good teams we were beat soundly. The gap between the two, IMO, is the roster. While we did upgrade some key spots I'm still worried about the OL, LB and Safety (in the run game) play.
Pry is doing one helluva job, but I'm not sure we are ready to make that jump to the top of the ACC with the current roster.
Everything you said is true, but I still think we can win the ACC and possibly even make the 12-team playoff next season. Not because I think we're going to go 10-2 or 11-1 (I don't), but because I don't think there's going to be a great team in the ACC in 2024. It's very possible that a team could win the ACC with a 9-3 regular season record.
I think FSU is going to have a major drop-off. Obviously they are going to be better than the team that got curb-stomped by Georgia, but that IS going to be the core of their roster next season, and if I'm an FSU fan I'm not feeling cocky about 2024 at all.
That being said, I do expect that FSU, Louisville and NC State (and maybe Clemson) will probably be better than VT next season, but there is no team in the ACC that strikes fear in me. I think Virgina Tech's over/under is 8.5 wins, and a little better than that could win the ACC and grab its automatic berth in the playoffs.
This is basically why I started the thread - we got beat bad by two teams. If they lose a lot, how much does it close the gap. We kept so many people and patched some weak spots in the portal, so I'm expecting us to be better than last year. The question as I see it (well, I guess two questions or a compound one) is, how much better will we be and how much worse will those teams be?