Yeah, I'm not buying this.
https://glorycolorado.com/posts/fsu-clemson-four-other-acc-schools-join-...
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Yeah, I'm not buying this.
https://glorycolorado.com/posts/fsu-clemson-four-other-acc-schools-join-...
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"The Big 12's foray into private equity..."
There's been a lot of speculation the last few days about this. Ross Dellenger even reported on it, saying FSU and Clemson have been talking with the Big 12. Again take this all with a grain of salt, but some have speculated that the SEC and Big Ten have basically told them thanks but no thanks. I think the possibility of them and a few others to the Big 12 or the best ACC schools breaking off to form a new league are becoming the most likely moves at this point.
If the SEC did pass on FSU and Clemson behind closed doors, this lines up with my suspicion that IF they even do expand further, they would rather look at new markets in VA and NC. Just my hunch.
The SEC passing makes sense from a bottom line standpoint. IF this is true I think the interesting thing is the B18 passed or the big XII deal is significantly better for F$U and Klempsin than what the B18 offered.
FSU and Clemson make no sense in the SEC from a financial stadlndpoint Or a recruiting standpoint or really anything but location.
Location and the SECs whole pageantry and "it means more" BS. I've thought they had a shot at the SEC because of that, not that it was the most likely outcome.
I don't believe one word of the speculation. Clemson and FSU aren't leaving unless its the SEC and -maybe- the B1G. They want money and access. The Big 12 has neither in terms of comparison to the ACC. Why add travel costs and arguably a tougher schedule top to bottom? Cal, Stanford (for now) Cuse, Wake, Duke, UVA- a lot of auto wins for Clemson in that mix. Makes no sense to leave without significantly more money and access to the playoffs.
This is what I have been saying all along. B1G doesn't want them due to academics, and the SEC doesn't need them. They already have the markets in those states. The SEC might have been encouraging them to break up the ACC so they could steal VA and NC teams. The only real landing spot is the B12 and their contract pays less than ours.
I've seen a lot of speculation to your last point - that FSU and Clemson spending all their money to leave the ACC was ignoring the elephant in the room. UNC might be the biggest target for the SEC and Big Ten. The rumblings that the SEC and Big Ten may have told FSU and Clemson no have made my outlook for VT to the P2 a good bit more positive.
Gut feeling, I personally think the SEC (and ESPN behind the scenes) would love to lock up the whole southeastern footprint. And in state political ties will keep VT/UVA and UNC/NC State together. I could see them swooping in and taking all four, which would be a huge win.
Its fucking hilarious that UNC, Notre Dame are such huge "brands" that the ACC- where they play is on the verge of collapse. You can not fucking have both. Either they are brands or not. If they are, they would elevate the profile of the conference they are in - so guess not.
I think its a matter of looking at the brands and how accretive those brands could be playing in a different league with more compelling matchups. UNC has a national brand because of basketball - there's no denying that. Their football program is soft IMO, but people know who UNC is nationally because of basketball, and their admin is willing to invest in football. Plus if you are born in NC, you are very likely a diehard Tarheel. NC is a top ten populated state. A lot of eyeballs that could now shift over and be watching SEC matchups. A lot of SECN cable subscription revenue.
Now look at VA. VT is the biggest football brand in the state. We have been down in recent years but on the upswing now with a lot of momentum. We are also always a very strong TV draw. If you're ESPN behind the scenes, would you rather try to sell VT playing Syracuse, BC, Wake Forest, Duke or VT playing Kentucky, Tennessee, UNC, South Carolina, etc. VA is also a top 12 populated state - again a ton of new eyeballs to watch SEC programming, more ad revenue, more SECN subscription fees.
Plus look at UVA and NC State - both overall extremely good athletics programs. UVA helps with the basketball angle, same as NC State (plus NC State has a pretty dang good football program to boot). All those assets draw a lot of eyeballs, and could bring in even more revenue in the SEC with better quality matchups. That's how I view this if I'm ESPN/SEC leadership. New markets, really strong brands, and potential to be bigger earners in a new setting with a better slate of games to sell. Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't help with viewership - they already have those markets and aren't adding a ton of new eyeballs if any. No change at all with SECN subscription fees since you already have FL and SC, and if you're trying to sell commercial timeslots to advertisers, not a ton of data to back up new eyeballs viewing the product. There are also only so many timeslots in a Saturday - at some point, that is just cannibalising viewership when you add teams like FSU and Clemson.
The ACC just has far too much deadweight, and the bigger brands/draws just don't play frequently enough (a problem we have all brought up with the horrible divisional schedule). Even with the new schedule formatting, too little too late, and still too many small schools with no interest/fanbase in football.
ND is a massive brand but they will never, ever give up football independence unless they are absolutely forced to. The ACC or the Big Ten getting them for that matter is a pipe dream.
The thing is you can very easily sell VT playing UNC, Clemson, FSU, Miami and NC State. It makes a lot more sense than just about any Big Ten school and a fair amount of the SEC schools.
A 10 team league of VT UNC Clemson FSU Miami NC State UVA GT L'Ville Notre Dame and Duke makes a lot of sense
Or 12 teams with VT UNC Clemson FSU Miami NC State UVA Duke L'Ville Notre Dame Pitt and West Virginia. Or that with GT football and Duke basketball.
Some variation of that is better than half those schools being split up between the redneck swamp and dying midwest
If you are talking football, NC State is hands down a better program than UNC. And not only that but they have an elite tailgating scene for games. IMHO they are a bigger get for the P2 than UNC, despite UNC's brand.
Oh I agree - NC State is one of our ACC brethren. I think VT and NC State are two of the most similar schools in the league. Always love some Wolfpack fans, they show out and love football. Carter-Finley is rocking for a good game.
If the SEC doesn't take all four, I want the B1G to take UVA and UNC and the SEC to take VT and NC State. Don't think there would be disappointment.
Going to the ACC tournament in Greensboro and tailgating taught me two things - 1) the Wolfpack fans are great to hang out with, always invited Hokies to their tailgates and 2) VA ties run deep - during Bennett's biggest years and our darkest at basketball, ran into several UVA basketball fans who called me and my friends "the Hokies" the whole week and we mutually bought drinks for each other at the bar. Never forget walking to the coliseum one day I hear "Hey, Hokies, get in!!" It's the UVA dudes in their van headed to tailgate. Loaded up with beers and went and had a blast with them. I hope the VA and NC schools stick together through this realignment mess - that was fun.
In what way? NC State has had just a single double digit win season EVER. UNC has a half dozen, and a couple AP top 5 appearances. Both programs are unable to hit their hypothetical ceilings.
NC State packs in the crowds and gets ratings every week. They're always good, not great, rarely allowing themselves to fall to terrible play.
UNC doesn't care about football. They can have a Top 10 team and they won't fill their stadium. Their fans don't travel for football and they don't bring in the ratings like you would expect. They have had better teams on the field than State but you would never know at the gate. And they routinely yo-yo in the standings allowing themselves to become terrible for long stretches because the fans don't hold them accountable because, again, they don't care about football.
NC State would put P2 money to good use. UNC would squander it by pumping it into basketball.
for conference expansion, ticket sales don't matter, it's tv views
It makes a difference in bowl selection.
I think they are national brands. The problem is 1) no one holds ND accountable to join up in full or leave, and 2) the league can't exploit those brands because they're locked into a bad ESPN contract.
Everyone should stop firing at each other and aim at ESPN. Get out of that horrible contract based on the massive changes to cfb landscape and go get a deal with Amazon or YouTube or some other broadcasting partner that needs to break into college sports.
I just don't buy FSU going to the Allstate Big XIT. That being said, with a few extra teams, that conference is set up better than most to create true east-west divisions, which would bring some regionalism back this realignment.
I feel seen.
I fix so many typos on here, I figured I would just start getting out ahead of it.
Yes let's all join a conference that makes less money in a year than the ACC.
Not saying this can't happen, but I'm not going to take the word of some rando radio personality
They're not paying the exit fee to go play against Texas schools and West Virginia for barely any more money. Also hell will freeze over before FSU willingly joins the same conference as UCF
i dont blame them either. Once you are in a conference with UCF, ECU, USF, App State, JMU- you are in a conference with those teams and you can't put the toothpaste back.
I agree with the exception of UCF. They've done everything right building that athletic program. The only thing they don't have yet is the brand and with some P4 football success and the amount of new alumni they're churning out each year that will come. They should be a consensus top 25-30 brand in 10 years.
Actually the B12 pays less than the ACC.
Yeah but I'm assuming slightly more with them involved
Only after the next negotiation. My understanding is that their basically brand new deal just increases the same amount for every new team.
I can bet the ACC could get more PE money than the Big 12 is getting. FSU & Clemson to Big 12 makes 0 sense.
I still think that ESPN and Fox got way over their skis with the contracts they gave out. I don't see the return being enough to justify those tv deals.
I really hope that the ACC opts out of the ESPN deal whenever it's economically viable to do so and go the streaming route. Apple, Google, Amazon would likely all love to get in on college football money and all of em have the infrastructure to market way better than ESPN or Fox.
A couple of points. ESPN and TV money is endless and won't end anytime soon. There is no bubble. NBA ratings are at an all time low, and their new deal is by far the largest ever. When the SEC re-news with ESPN will be much larger than the current one. Live sports is king in advertising. The NFL will be all pay per view in 5-7 years and you will gladly pay it. ESPN is not over their ski's - they just chose to pay one conference 70% more and kill the other conferences. It was a marketing choice, not based on quality. Also- the Pac 12 tried your last point, and they are no longer a conference.
live sports are the only ads I see these days with ad free streaming and adblocker on ky browsers
The Pac 12 had incompetent leadership (which the ACC does have too) that drove then to ask for a price way out of bed with the other leagues. The PAC12 way over valued themselves and pissed everyone off when they had a deal similar to Big12 and ACC. They had to hope apple or Amazon bailed them out but they had no leverage to make those deals better.
This would be akin to Whit flying to Beaverton, taking a large crap in the front hall , telling Adidis that we'll do the same to them and then complaining why UAs deal was a lowball.
play stupid games win stupid prizes
Nice, so the spoiled, disgruntled jealous employee will continue to not be part of the solution, sulk, and add no value to the ACC. Great.
Epic. Makes no sense for either league to add FSU or Clemson. My hope now is either somehow the SEC does want to expand into VA and NC, or we get a new/restructured ACC and cut some of the smaller schools. I'm good with either of those.
FSU and Clemson make all this noise for them to get stuck in the ACC while VT gets an SEC seat.
You would never hear an LOL so loud from me if that came to happen.
L-O-fucking-L
I mean they also don't bring any new money to the SEC and the Big Ten isn't exactly desperate for them. They'd take them if forced, but I don't see FOX pressuring them to do so anytime soon.
Meanwhile we're sitting pretty as the biggest football fish in one of the largest untapped markets of the P2 just quietly observing all of this from the peripheral.
They are not, and are not likely to be an AAU school. I can't see Fox forcing them to do anything.
Kind of what I have been saying all along about the SEC and B1G not wanting them. But to flat out say why would we want a disruptive partner... Wow. And they have been. They were quiet when down, but a little resurgence and they want the world.
To be faaaaaaiiiiir, the SEC did just take Texas and Oklahoma, so they aren't exactly opposed to disruptive partners. It just so happens that Texas is a behemoth football brand that makes it worth it, and FSU ain't that.
Yep. FSU may think they're a big dog, but they're nowhere in the same league as Texas when it comes to money and influence. FSU isn't even the main football power in the state - UF I think is bigger.
Let's be honest, UF thinks if they aren't playing for at least the conference championship it is a failed year. Napier is about to get a golden parachute. I think October.
Related:
I think the people telling FSU to sue and break up the ACC have been eyeing other targets the entire time. They are just getting FSU to foot the bill and look bad at the same time. FSU's administration has long been silly enough to think they were that important.
That's the dream right? FSU breaks up the ACC and VT gets an invite to the SEC
There is a very big piece of this people are forgetting. If FSU is bound by a GOR, thus they can't leave without a law suit, that same exact GOR means the ACC can't kick them out. If FSU is being rebuffed by the P2, they will simply say, welp sorry we are staying, we have a GOR with the league.
That's a good point. I don't know what the ACC bylaws state, but it's probably at least a supermajority of schools that would need to agree to kick out a school. That doesn't seem likely.
not likely, but for F$U's antics and childish behavior, it wouldn't shock me if a supermajority could be achieved to boot them. I don't know if that's even possible under the GOR (I doubt it) but that would be *chefs kiss*
Chef's kiss indeed, but I feel like that would be a major own goal by the ACC membership. FSU is one of the most important brands in the conference. ACC is more valuable/marketable with them in the tent.
If you really want to piss them off, keep them locked into this death pact lol
Restructure the revenue distribution so that schools actively trying to leave the conference get the minimum payout.
FSU, Clemson and ND are such huge important brands, the ACC is on the verge of dying.
Looking at the GOR, I don't see basis for protecting a school or preventing them from being kicked out. I think that would be solely governed by the ACC bylaws.
As written, a school could get kicked out and the ACC would still retain their rights. There is no caveat to the irrevocability of the granting of rights within the GOR. In practice, I'm sure that those rights would be granted back as it would be so unfair that no court would uphold that situation.
I am still waiting for the SEC and ACC agreement to become a shared legal with promotion/regulation. Vanderbilt and Arkansas, you were the two worst teams last year, you get relegated to the ACC. FSU, Louisville you did the best last year, come on up!
I've always been intrigued by the promotion/relegation model for college football but somebody (don't remember who, maybe DC?) made a great point that promotion/relegation would wreak havoc on recruiting so I am not sure it's sustainable in college level sports.
Correct- it could be fun, interesting and encourage competition, however will never fly because of the seat at the table aspect.
Moreso than recruiting is the TV aspect. American TV networks want predictability. They don't want to negotiate $100m/school/year for the SEC, then get stuck with wake forest instead of Auburn when the former wins 11 games and the latter wins 4.
Correct. In your scenario Wake of course is the much better football team and won't turn it over 5 times on TV like 4 win Auburn. But Go Tigers... cause...
Worth highlighting the phrasing here:
That means if the ACC falls apart, and the GoR is no more, the. there's interest. However, if the ACC remains intact, then the GoR is presumably somewhat enforceable. The P2 don't want to deal with unwinding that broadcasting rights mess.
TLDR: if FSU is available for free, P2 is interested. Otherwise they are not. Too complex.