2025-26 Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Preseason Edition

The 2025-26 ShootyHoops season is upon us, with just a fortnight to go until tipoff. Here, we'll dive into both the men's and women's teams, looking at each schedule and roster, taking into account losses and new additions, as well as a light preview of the first four matchups for each squad.

The Men's Team

Year 7 of CMYBall is locked and loaded with a decent schedule and what looks to be a much improved roster from last season. Some outlets have reported CMY to be on the hotseat, though I don't see that. He's had one losing season in 6 years and has an ACC title. CMY also enters the season with 105 wins, just 4 behind Chuck Noe for 3rd All-Time among Hokie coaches and 65 behind Seth Greenberg for 2nd. Conference-wise, Young is 4th among all VT Basketball coaches with 53 wins; 9 behind Charlie Moir, 15 behind Greenberg, and 22 behind Noe. Difference there is it took 9 seasons for Greenberg and Moir to get their wins, while Young has only had 6. Yes, Moir did his in 7, but the mid-50s, early 60s SoCon wasn't exactly the modern ACC in terms of difficulty (Washington and Lee, VMI, Furman, Richmond, William and Mary, Citadel, Davidson, GW, and West Virginia).

The Schedule

Looking at the KenPom preseason rankings for 2025-26, the Hokies have a solid schedule with 10 Quadrant 1 games, 6-7 Quadrant 2 games, 7-8 Quadrant 3 games, and 6 Quadrant 4 games, with the variance to be determined by the outcome of the Battle for Atlantis. Depending on how the other teams do throughout the year, it would not surprise me if the Hokies finish with 5-6 games in higher quadrants than preseason rankings would indicate. Even so, the median preseason KenPom ranking of our opponents is as high as low as 76.5 and as high as 78.

As expected, the Quad 4 games are all front-loaded with all 6 games taking place in the first 12, although Charlotte (#189) could become a Quad 3 game by season's end. Early tests will include Quad 1 Providence (#48) and Quad 2/potentially Quad 1 Saint Mary's (#55), as well as Quad 2's in Colorado State (#79) and South Carolina (#86)

Once conference play starts, however, the difficulty will ramp up considerably, with the 13 game stretch from January 13 to the end of the season having possibly 11 Quad 1 or Quad 2 games. If this team goes dancing this year, they earned it.

The Roster

Not only is this a Hokie team set up for growth this year, but it is also set for success in future years. Only 1 Grad Student, 1 Senior, 3 Juniors, 3 Sophomores, and 4 Freshmen make up the 2025-26 Roster.

Productive transfers, veteran returners, and highly touted recruits make for a giddy 07Hokie.

But first, it's important to address the losses.

Gone are 5 solid contributors from last season (Poteat, Young, Burnham, Rechsteiner, Brown Jr) and 4 back of the bench types in Wessler, Jones Jr, Venable, and Serven. With them, go almost 42 ppg, 11.6 rpgs (among forwards), 6.0 apg (among guards), and almost 120 minutes per game. Understandably, that's a lot. But, to be fair, that's a lot from a 13-19 team.

Looking at all of the players who played in 2024-25, we are seeing 64.3 ppg returning, 13.5 rpg (among forwards), 9.2 apg (among guards), and 174.4 minutes per game.

Returning scorers are led by Sr Forward Tobi Lawal's 12.4 ppg, So Guard Izaiah Pasha's 11.9 ppg, and GS guard Jailen Bedford's 10.2 ppg.

Height is not a concern, but experience is, as the three 6-10 or taller Hokies are all true freshmen, though they are seemingly highly touted. First and foremost, we aren't without a 7-footer, as the Hokies added Antonio Dorn, a 4* international player from Germany. Joining him is 6-10 Christian Gurdak, another 4* prospect (#116 nationally) who also weighs in at 260, a solid 20 pounds more than anybody else on the roster. If his footwork and positioning is better than Poteat, I expect many rebounds. Rounding out the trio of freshmen centers, is 6-11 Solomon Davis a 3* recruit and #57 at his position

Others in the frontcourt are the aforementioned Lawal (6-8 215), Transfer Junior Amani Hansberry (6-8 240), and true freshman Sin'Cere Jones (6-7 230), who comes in as a 4* prospect ranked 149th nationally.

Among the 6 post players, I would suspect Young will find a rotation of 3-5 to maintain legs and expecting 1-2 to redshirt or play mop-up duty. I would guess Lawal and Hansberry probably get the start at C and PF, respectively, with Dorn, Gurdak, and Jones providing the depth.

Guardplay is going to be a war for minutes. First and foremost, my guess at starters will probably be Izaiah Pasha (6-5 205) at the Point, with Jailen Bedford (6-4 190) as one of the other two starters.

Veteran players returning are r-Jr Jaden Schutt (6-5 200), So Tyler Johnson (6-5 210), and So Ben Hammond (5-11 170). Any one of them could be the #3 guard or all three of them could be on the bench as depth players behind...

*checks notes

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6-9 215 true freshman Neoklis Avdalas from Greece, a 5* prospect ranked somewhere between 9th and 16th in the 2025 class, the second highest rated recruit in VT basketball history. If he's as good as his ranking indicates, he has to play significant minutes.

Do I think he'll start Game 1, probably not, but I would not be surprised if he's #6 off the bench and a starter later in the season.

Also in the backcourt are Snook Peterkin (6-3 174) coming over from the football team, and Brett Freeman, a 6-5 180 lb walkon from the Bronx.

6 guards are going to play major minutes this year, possibly 7. Doing the math, that equates to a minimum rotation of 9, with as many as 12 significant contributors, with potentially 2 more getting some run. Like I said, minutes will be a war, but this team looks to be able to adapt to any opponent.

Upcoming

The 2025-26 season begins with Charleston Southern (#320). The Buccaneers are coming off a dreadful 10-22 season with the lone highlight in the season being a 83-79 win at Miami. However, they only have three returners, Sr F Reis Jones (6-10), So F Lase Olalere (6-10), and So G Anthony Gause (6-3). They are returning Jr G A'Lahn Sumler (6-4) who missed last season with a hip injury, after putting up 14.2 ppg in 2023-24. Also with some experience is Brycen Blaine who played 9 games for JMU in 2022-23, then sat out 2023-24 with an injury before transferring to Gulf Coast State. He can be a threat from range, shooting 42.7% last season for the Commodores. Finally, the Bucs have 7-1 Devin Brafford, a Siena transfer, who played sparingly for the Saints, averaging less than 5 points per game, and despite his size, never pulled down more than 7 rebounds last season, and only scored in double figures once.

Then comes the early challenge in Providence (#48). The Hokies' first Q1 opponent for the Basketball Hall of Fame Series also saw a high turnover rate, with only 4 contributors from last season returning and hit the portal hard. From UCF they drew Jaylin Sellers, who two years ago averaged almost 16 per game with 83% shooting from the line. From Georgia Tech, they pulled Duncan Powell who averaged 12.2 ppg with 5.4 rebounds per game, including 23 against the Hokies and 24 against Duke in the ACC tournament. From Drexel, they pulled Cole Hargrove, who scored just shy of 10 per game with 7.5 boards per contest. From Florida State, they nabbed Daquan Davis who put up 8.8 for the Noles last season. Dipping into the SEC, the Friars pulled Jason Edwards from Vanderbilt, who averaged 17 ppg and 83.1% from FT range last season; also scoring 19 in a win in Cassell. Three players put up 49 against the Hokies last season.

Next the Hokies take on St. Joseph's who crushed the Hokies last season at Holiday Hoopfest, however, they lost 43 points from that matchup. The Hokies will remember Derek Simpson (18 points), and Anthony Finkly (13 points) as the main returners, though starters Justice Ajogbor (5 ponts) and Dasear Haskins (3 points) also return. The challenge will be that those returners shot 8-15 from range. As with everybody, they also have a ton of transfers: Al Amodou (Marquette), Deuce Jones (LaSalle), and Jaden Smith (Fordham).

Rounding out the opening quartet of games is Charlotte (#189). Stop me if you've heard this before. They lost the majority of their scoring from last year and pulled a ton from the portal. From Siena they pulled Major Freeman (13ppg), from Southern Indiana they grabbed Damoni Harrison (15 ppg/41% from range), from Marshall they pulled Dezayne Mingo (12.6 ppg), Ethan Butler from Northern Illinois (8.9 ppg), Arden Conyers (4.3 ppg) from South Carolina, Spencer Elliott from Tulane, 6-11 Kuluel Mading (7.2 ppg) from Norfolk State, and 7-2 Anton Bonke from Providence.

Prediction

Anybody who can accurately predict the Virginia Tech schedule should go ahead buy some lotto tickets as that would be more likely to happen. However, looking solely at each game, at face value, I think the Hokies should win two comfortably (Charleston Southern and Charlotte), one pretty close (St. Joseph's), and coinflip on the Providence game, though I would suspect a loss, as the Friars are a 7.5 point favorite. What I will guarantee is CMY will play a bevy of lineups and rotations to begin to determine the best 5, with no fewer than 11 players earning minutes. Those 3 probable wins would give Young 108, just 1 shy of Chuck Noe

The Women's Team

Year 2 of CMDBall begins with excitement and a chance to build on last season's 19-13 record. New faces and a favorable early schedule give the 2025-26 Hokies a chance to grow and become a dangerous team going into conference play. Duffy will also likely move into 5th All-Time among Hokie coaches for conference wins.

The Schedule

Using Barttorvik.com as a KenPom women's substitute, the 2025-26 Hokies will have 13-14 preseason Quad 1 games (including a brutal February* with 7 of 8 games being Quad 1), 6-7 Quad 2 games, 2 Quad 3 games, and 8 Quad 1 games. Shocker, the ACC is loaded with 9 teams in the top 36.

The slate of games starts out with five consecutive Quad 4 matchups, good to get solid rotations developed, which is good because the next five are either Quad 1 or Quad 2 games. Follow that up with 3 of the next 4 being Quad 4 games, before it's the ACC gauntlet. Not that there wasn't a gauntlet of ACC teams before as the Hokies first two ACC games are #5 Duke and @#33 FSU, both Quad 1 games. Whoever survives the ACC to go dancing will be battletested.

The Roster

The portal was hit strategically, and recruiting was, as the kids say, fire.

Gone are starters Rose Micheaux and Tilly Ekh, and bench post players Ramiya White and Myah Hazelton, and with them go 26.3 ppg, 9.4 rpg (among forwards), 2.3 apg (among guards), and 67.5 minutes per game.

This iteration of the Hokies will likely start out as a small-ball run-you-to-death type team, as no experienced players are taller than 6-2 (Carys Baker). I have no idea how the starting 5 will look, other than to say Baker and Carleigh Wenzel are starting. Our tallest veteran led the team in 3pt%, minimum 75 shots. She has to be away from the basket to be her most effective.

That being said, like the Men's team, the Women have height in the form of 4* Freshmen in Amani Jenkins (#72 nationally) and Aniya Trent (both 6-3). I do expect both to get some run down low, especially against the Quad 4 buffet at the start of the season.

Duffy does add 6-1 Sr Kilah Freelon from Texas Tech who does come in with over 400 points and 400 rebounds for her career, including 7 points and 6 rebounds against the Hokies in the WBIT last season. Rounding out the frontcourt is So Kayl Petersen (6-0) who played in all 32 games last year, scoring 134 points and pulling down 94 rebounds.

Also, like the Men, there will be some fighting for minutes among the guards, as the Hokies have six veteran players, led by the aforementioned r-Jr Carleigh Wenzel, as well as Northwestern transfer Graduate Student Mel Daley, who comes in with 937 career points, and a career steals-adjusted ATO margin of 165:5. In 2023, despite being the starting SG for the Wildcats, Daley had a season steals-adjusted ATO of 67:-9. She had 9 more steals than turnovers despite playing 822 minutes. I personally think this will allow Wenzel to be more of a shooter than the true PG for long portions of the game.

Not lacking for experience, the Hokies have two additional Jrs in Samyha Suffren, who missed most of last season following an injury in the Duke game where she already scored 10 points and pulled down 6 rebounds before going down, and Sophie Swanson, who comes over from Purdue with 441 points to her name. Add in r-So Mackenzie Nelson who had a career high 14 in the season ending win at Clemson and reserve Leila Wells, and the Hokies have a solid veteran guard depth.

But wait, there's more.

Coming in is 4* Kate Sears, ranked #75 nationally by 247 as well as Slovenian Špela Brecelj, who if experience tells me anything, ACCNetwork+ announcers will summon an Eldritch Horror while trying to say her name. Brecelj does bring a high level of international experience, having garnered the 2022 U18B European Championship (as a Center) and 2023 U18A (as a Center) and U20B (as Power Forward) European Championships.

Like Young, Duffy will have to come up with a rotation going forward. Looking at 9 veterans, 3 highly recruited freshmen, and the Slovenian wildcard, It's entirely possible that this iteration of the Virginia Tech women's basketball team has more talent than available minutes.

Upcoming

Murderer's Row, this quartet of games is not, with all four games starting out as Q4 games.

Towson (#206) is the first opponent, coming off a 12-20 season last year. The Tigers have 6 seniors, 3 other experienced players, and 5 freshmen. If I had to guess, Towson will start guards Zoli Khalil (VCU transfer), India Johnston, Tilda Sjokvist (Missouri transfer), Shariah Baynes, Thalia Shepard (Merrimack transfer), or Semaya Turner and Forward Hannah Dereje (Elon transfer). Khalil is pretty solid from range, though she doesn't shoot often. Johnston will have the most shots.

Next, the Hokies face #266 Loyola MD. The Greyhounds are a minor favorite of mine as I own a greyhound, and he's been a great sports watching buddy. Anyway, like Towson, Loyola has six seniors, 5 experienced players, and 3 Freshmen. Unlike damn-near everybody, of the 26 combined seasons of experience, all but 1 of those has been at Loyola. Starters are pretty easy to guess, as I would expect Srs Koi Sims and Lex Therien to start in the frontcourt, with Jrs Kimmie Hicks, Amandine Amorich, and one of two senior Spaniards or Jr Kailey Kalet to round out the backcourt.

Then the Hokies will welcome #340 Gardner-Webb. None of their top 7 scorers return and only return 684 minutes of experience. Starting with top returning scorer Jr G Anaya Harris (6.9 ppg), other starters are likely Sr G Nyla Walker (4.2 ppg), Sr Furman transfer Jaelyn Acker (3.3 ppg), So Kayla Martin (2.6 ppg), and Sr F Chelsy Bautista (3.6 ppg transfer from Mercer). Bench "depth" for the Runnin' Bulldogs consist of 1 So Forward, Jr Forward and 1 Jr Guard, who average a combined 2.9 ppg.

Rounding out the quartet of games is Coastal Carolina, the highest rated of the bunch (#165). The Chanticleers have 9 veteran players, broken down as 4 seniors, 4 juniors, and a sophomore. They will be led by Sr G Kristin Williams (10.8 ppg), Sr Tulsa transfer Paige Bradley (7.8 ppg), Jr Wisconsin transfer D'Yanis Jimenez (1.8 ppg), Sr Miami (OH) transfer Hennessey Luu-Brown (3.3 ppg), and Sr Charlotte transfer F Tracey Hueston (11.5 ppg).

Prediction

With many factors, it's always difficult to predict how these games...

4-0, with all healthy players getting time in every game.

Each of these games should be over by halftime and the Hokies should be well north of 320 total points scored, with less than 240 points allowed.