Advanced Stats Review: VT Pulls Off Gutsy Road Win

It is an unfortunate truth about Philip Montgomery that he is already doing things that Brent Pry never achieved at Virginia Tech in his first games as interim head coach. While it is easy to point out that it took two games for Montgomery to achieve a one-score victory (something Pry only achieved against a Liberty team whose coach had one foot out the door in 2022), last night's victory at Carter-Finley Stadium represented something we haven't seen since the previous interim head coaching run. Virginia Tech won a road conference game as an underdog, last achieved by J.C. Price against Virginia (who CBS Sports had listed as -7 favorites) in 2021.

I don't think there were many who expected much out of Virginia Tech last night. NC State had previously shown a potent offense that could beat you rushing the ball behind Hollywood Smothers, and racking up passing yards to an offense that already has 7 receivers with over 10 catches. While the NC State defense had left a lot to desire in their nail biting (non-conference) win against Virginia and their (actual conference) loss to Duke, Virginia Tech has struggled to find an identity early this season.

So how did Virginia Tech pull off the double-digit underdog victory? By mixing a couple of energized freshmen defenders in Noah Chambers and Sheldon Robinson, seeing career best performances from Kaleb Spencer and Christian Ellis, and pass rush that combined with a good coverage effort to get five sacks. At the same time, while the offense wasn't always prolific, it eliminated the turnovers (Virginia Tech didn't fumble the ball, and Drones limited the number of turnover worthy passing plays) and reduced the number of backbreaking negative plays.

Success Rate Still Low, But VT Limits the Negatives

While Virginia Tech is ultimately going to end up on the negative end of Parker Fleming's "Did We Really Get Beat That Bad" chart, I do think that this can be a little misleading. NC State's success mostly came on the back of C.J. Bailey's arm: 26/34 passing (76.5%) for 240 passing yards, 1 touchdown and no interceptions. But a lot of that success came on short passes on first down. And while the Hokies allowed four explosive passing plays (receptions over 20 yards), Virginia Tech escaped allowing plays of 30- or 50-plus yards that have plagued them in the Pry era. Virginia Tech's longest allowed play only went for 27 yards.

On offense, Virginia Tech was able to do enough throughout. While I don't think that having Drones throw the ball 11 times in the first quarter is a winning recipe moving forward, the Hokies found success running behind Terion Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins. Stewart, who flashed against ODU but has struggled with injuries is the obvious revelation but both running backs averaged over 11 yards a carry. Steward with 174 yards on 15 carries (11.6 YPC) and Hawkins with 47 on 4 carries (11.8 yards).

The passing attack did show some success on some choice routes in the slot as well as the RPO game. Virginia Tech was even able to use the "Rutgers tight end play" for their own success on a huge third down conversion late in the game. There is still plenty of room for improvement, especially in protection (both offensive line quality and Drones ability to make adjustments at the line) as well as some major drops.

Virginia Tech Wins the EPA Battle on the Road

As a result, you can see that while Virginia Tech came out slow, they did ultimately win the EPA per play battle. Even in the 4th quarter, which netted out as a mild NC State win on net EPA per play, Virginia Tech was able to protect a lead and pull off the win by finding a way to not three-and-out after getting the ball back with about four minutes remaining.

Final Thoughts

I am still struggling to make out what this team can do with a tough remaining conference schedule. There are still some major flaws on this team that can easily be exploited, and limited depth that is being tested by injuries and opt-outs. Wins will be tough to come by, and no one recognizes that as much as Coach Montgomery who said as much in his post game remarks. However, if this roster, as healthy as it can be, can continue to play like they did last night (dare I say hard, smart, and tough?) then I think there can be some developmental wins, which are desperately needed. While I doubt this is a bowl team, I do think there is path to make sure this season isn't the entire loss we expected after the ODU loss.