2025-26 Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Volume 7

The Men's Team

That was a frightful window for the men's team, as CMYBall went 1-3, though all three losses were against Quad 1 opponents. The Hokies currently sit 16-8 and 5-6 in conference. It's probably safe to say our bubble has burst, though opportunities still exist. However, that window is currently being bricked up.

Scoring

This has been the poorest scoring window, so far this year, at just 68.25 ppg. Bedford led all Hokies with 14.5 ppg, followed by Hansberry's 14 and Hammond's 12.25 among those scoring in double figures. Lawal averaged 8.25, Avdalas averaged 7.5, Schutt averaged 6.5, and Gurdack averaged 4.25. The only other Hokie scorer was Dorn who averaged 1 ppg.

Rebounding

The last four game window wasn't the worst for rebounding, but it was awful, as the Hokies managed just 29.25 rebounds. Lawal was the most productive, at 8.25, followed by Hansberry, at 6.25. Gurdack pulled down 3.75 rpg, while Avdalas and Bedford pulled down 3 each, and Hammond nabbed 2.5. Nobody else averaged more than 1 per half. Schutt and Dorn both pulled down 1.25 per game, while Pasha didn't record any.

Assists

Ballhandling was just bad at the worst possible moments. As a whole, the Hokies had an ATO of 52:46, the third most assists of the year but the second worst turnovers Add in the worst level of steals, and the AATO was a fair 52:24.

Hammond and Bedford had a combined AATO of 23:-4. Add in Avdalas and our starting guards accrued an AATO of 36:4.

Experience/Depth

The Hokies have started relying on a primary 6 man rotation with Hammond (36.25 mpg), Hansberry (31.5), Bedford (30.25), Lawal (29), Avdalas (28.75), and Schutt (24) were the main contributors. Only Gurdack (15.25) got in often from the mid-bench. Dorn (6.5) and Pasha (4) provided the deep-bench minutes.

Next Four

First up, the Hokies will be traveling to Quad 1 Clemson. The Tigers are currently through to the double-bye in ACC standings and trail only Duke in ACC wins. Clemson plays three 6-10 bigs for about a third of team minutes. Add in two 6-8 Forwards and you see that bigs take up about half of all minutes for Clemson. The Tigers play a four guard rotation, with Sr PG Dillon Hunter usually running the show. They are in the bottom half of the conference in scoring, at just 76 ppg, but are second in the conference in scoring D and opponents are shooting just a hair under 40% against them. Clemson is very similar to the Hokies in their accuracy from range and are reliant on them just as frequently. Also, just like the Hokies, they are in a statistical tie for the best 3pt% defense in the conference. In fact, there are many other stats in which Clemson and Virginia Tech are neck and neck. The Hokies, however, have the edge in steals, blocks, assists, and turnover margin

Next, the Hokies welcome Quad 3 Florida State. The Seminoles play top out a single regular contributor over 6-9, and have three bigs between 6-8 and 6-10 who are seeing about 65 total minutes, though AJ Swinton is back and he could bring that up to 80 minutes between the four forwards. Sr G Robert McCray V is their do-everything player, leading in scoring and assists, though his FT shooting is worse than Neo's. Florida State scores a little better than the Hokies, but they allow the most points in the ACC at almost what the Hokies score. They have the third worst shooting percentage in the conference, and pair that with the second worst opponent shooting percentage. Only BC is worse from beyond the arc, which is surprising because for a team that relies so heavily on the 3 (722 attempts), Florida State sucks at hitting them (31.2%).

Keeping with the Sunshine State theme, the Hokies will travel down to Quad 1 Miami. The Canes use a 7 man rotation, with a true 6-11 Center, a 6-9 PF, a 6-6 SF, a 6-4 SG, and a 6-3 PG, with all major bench help coming from a 6-10 PF and a 6-8 SF. If they go deeper, they will get to their guard bench of two shooting guards. For the Hokies to win, they need to limit Malik Reneau, who is just shy of 20 ppg, and Tre Donaldson, who has 16 ppg, as of this writing. Miami is in the top 5 in the ACC in Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, Rebounding Margin, Steals, Assists, and #1 in FG% and Rebounds Allowed. However, they are dead last in opponent 3pt%

The Hokies wrap up this edition with Quad 2 Wake Forest. This is a revenge game for the Hokies, as the Deacs were the first team to buzzerbeat the Hokies during that 3 out of 4 last second loss skid. Looking at that, the Hokies are 6*-3 in one score games this year. Because we've already played them once this year, I'm not going to put too much attention on who they have or what they do other than to point out their 8 man rotation is the same.

Prediction

I don't see the Hokies winning on the road, except maybe in South Carolina. The Hokies' advantage in steals, blocks, and turnovers forced should help level the playing field. I really think that game is going to be a classic 2+ hour stomach ache.

Florida State is bad and we should have no problem winning.

We're not winning in Miami. Miami might be the best team in the ACC.

I want revenge against Wake, and I think I'll get it.

2-2, possibly 3-1 to improve to either 18-10 (7-8) or 19-9 (8-7)

The Women's Team

Pushing through the last edition, the CMDBall went 3-1, improving to 18-6 (8-4) on the season. Unfortunately, the recent loss to Notre Dame has knocked the Hokies out of the double bye, but they are still tied for 6th with UVA.

Duffy now has 37 wins as a Hokie, just 1 shy of Beth Dunkenberger for 3rd best 2 year start. The win over UVA also gave Duffy her 17th conference win, tying Dennis Wolff's 5 year total, good for 5th All-Time.

Now let's see how the Hokies did during this most recent four game stretch.

Scoring

Scoring dropped off a basket, to 74.5ppg. Two Hokies scored in double figures, led by Wenzel's 19.5 ppg and Baker's 16.25 ppg. Three other Hokies got close, with Nelson averaging 9.25, Freelon averaging 9, and Suffren averaging 8.5. Remaining scorers were Wells and Swanson (6 ppg), Daley (3 ppg), Petersen (1 ppg), and Trent (0.67 ppg). Jenkins and Brecelj did not score this window.

Rebounding

The Hokies did better rebounding, averaging 36.25, led by Freelon's 9.5 and Baker's 7.75. Suffren (4.5) and Wenzel (4.25) averaged at least 1 per quarter. Brecelj (3), Nelson (2.75), Petersen and Trent (2) all averaged at least 1 per half. Daley and Wells (1.5), and Jenkins (1) averaged at least 1 per game. Swanson did not record any rebounds.

Assists

All told, the Hokies dished out 64 assists through these four games, with Nelson (22) and Wenzel (21) getting the majority of the dishes. Nelson had the most turnovers (14), but offset half of them by also leading the team in steals (7). As a team, the Hokies had an ATO of 64:50, but adjusted with the 28 steals they swiped, their AATO is 64:22. That's 5 of 6 windows with an AATO of at least 60:40 or better, and the only other one was 58:12.

With a minimum of 7 games left in the season, the Hokies have accrued 80 fewer assists, 103 fewer turnovers, and 44 more steals than last season. When the Hokies get their next 2 steals, they will have eclipsed 200 on the season for the first time since the 2017-18 season, Kenny Brooks' 2nd season at the helm, and that team had played 37 games.

Experience/Depth

Only Baker (34 mpg) and Wenzel (33 mpg) averaged at least 30 per, though Nelson was seconds away (29.75 mpg). Freelon also came close, with 28.5 mpg. No other Hokie averaged at least half of the game played. Suffren had 19, Wells had 16.75, Daley had 11.5, and Petersen had 11.25, rounding out the 10+ crew. Swanson (7) and Trent (6.33) provided the deep bench, while Jenkins and Brecelj (2) were the deep reserves.

Next Four

Time to separate the wheat from the chaff. ALL QUAD 1 BABY.

The Hokies open this frame with the annual slugfest that is NC State. Three bigs make up the post for the Pack, anchored by 6-6 Tilda Trygger and two 6-2 Juniors. Five guards split the wing and point minutes. Khamil Pierre leads the Pack with a 16/12 double-double. NC State is the top scoring team in the conference since conference play started, and 6th in scoring defense over that same timeframe. Likewise, they shoot well, but are also behind the Hokies in opponent FG percentage. Both teams hit from range at about the same clip, though the Pack average about 1.5 more shots per game. DON'T FOUL. As a team, the Pack are shooting 80.7% since the start of ACC play.

The Hokies then begin a left coast swing at Stanford. The Cardinal are on a severe slide, having lost 5 of their last 6. Stanford's roster is much like their mascot closet: full of trees. Stanford has eight players 6-2 or taller. 6-5 Alexandra Eschmeyer, 6-3 Lara Somfai, 6-2 Mary Ashley Stevenson, 6-2 Nunu Agara, and 6-1 Courtney Ogden all get significant run; with Somfai, Agara, and Ogden getting 25+ mpg. The five of them combine for over 100 mpg. Stanford is only averaging about 65ppg since ACC play started, 7 points fewer than the Hokies. They allow 68.5 ppg, 7 points more than the Hokies allow. They shoot less than 29% from range, but the Cardinal are very good from the FT line, and rebounding. Tech's defense should be able to take advantage of the 0.64 ATO margin Stanford has produced in conference play, as they have dished out fewer than 11 assists over conference play.

Continuing on in the Pacific Time Zone, the Hokies take on Cal. The Bears have one big that plays only about 60% of the game. After her, nobody on the roster is taller than 6-1. Cal also has a very limited bench, only playing 7. Fouls can be a major factor in this game. Cal shoots well, but they allow a high percentage of shots. Tech leads Cal in almost every single statistic.

Coming back to the Cassell, the Hokies end the frame with UNC. Carolina only plays two real bigs in 6-4 Ciera Toomey and 6-2 Nyla Harris. They roll about 8 deep, with the breakdown being 6 guards and 2 forwards. The Tar Heels shoot about 3.5% worse from range than the Hokies but defend about 4% better. The lack of height presents a problem as they are bottom 5 in blocks. Other than those stats, the two are very similarly matched teams.

Prediction

I like the Hokies' chances against NC State in Blacksburg, though not enough for me to call it a guaranteed win. It's firmly a tossup.

Stanford and Cal should both be solid resume boosting wins for the Hokies.

As with State, UNC, at Cassell, is one that I like, on paper. However, likewise, it's firmly a tossup.

Hokies get at least 2 wins, maybe as many as 4.

This would move the Hokies to at least 20-8 (10-6) to as high as 22-6 (12-4), probably at the 3 seed in the ACC tournament, with tie-breakers against #s 4-8 with two games to go.