Some other notables:
Alabama leads at 10.5
FSU leads the ACC at 9.5
Clemson, Louisville, and VT listed at 9
Miami 8.5
UNC 7
GT 6.5
Duke is the last ACC team listed so far at 5.5
edit: this is just for the regular season
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Comments
Man I was really hoping they'd peg it at 8 cause I'd totally take that bet. I don't think I can safely wager money on ten regular season wins. Not saying I see 3 clear losses, but there's always got and Syracuse last year to remember.
I guess Vegas thinks it's going to be an active hurricane season this year.
Read an interesting SB Nation article about WVU that was not at all optimistic about their 2017 season, they only gave WVU a 27% chance of beating us this year. Doesn't look like Bill Connelly has done one for us yet *but* I'm still nervous about going into FedEx with so much in question on offense.
Next three games beyond WVU should relatively easy and will help the offense gel quite a bit but I'll still be shocked if we manage to upset Clemson.
The Miami, GT, Pitt stretch at the end of the season is critical -- I wish we had a bye in there instead of before UNC.
If I'm being reasonable I'd say the ceiling is probably 2 losses and the floor is probably 4. I'd bet the under on 9 if I had to put money down.
Sadly ours won't be for a while. He does each conference in order of their average S&P+ ranking from worst to best and ACC was the best conference last year (mayyybe a shred behind SEC, that bama bump is real) so ours won't be till August or so. We are a pre-season top 25 (at 25th, natch) though and WVU was listed as only having a 27% chance to win at FedEx, so I like that
Yeah the Fedex Field curse has hurt too many times to be super confident, but I do think unless Will Grier lights it up that we will come out on top. I agree with a 8 win floor and 10 win ceiling, gonna be one or two surprise losses but hopefully enough to get us back to the ACC Championship.
Venue curses are just excuses.
Time to set that aside, and never mention it again.
This
Exactly. Off the top of my head we've lost in FedEx to USC (can't remember if that was the year they won the NC or not) and Boise State who finished 3rd. Cinci won 10 games the year they beat us and we were garbage that year. It's not like we've been going up there and losing games to William and Mary, all of those teams were probably better than us in each of those years. We're better than WVU this year.
So what you're trying to say is...Scott Stadium is cursed for LOLUVa?
We lost to USCw at FedEx in '04, and yes, they won the NC that year. Our other two losses that year were to NCSt and an undefeated Auburn in the Sugar.
Both USC and Auburn were winnable games is what got me. And NCST could have been won with a late field goal, but game shouldn't have been that close.
Usually this statement means that the winning team should have blown the other team out... just sayin'.
NC St deserved that win, and they showed us a weakness that should have been immediately dealt with, but went unchecked so long we're still trying to fix it 13 years later.
10 sacks on the game. TEN... With Randall at QB.
They blew up our OL that day and laid the framework that led to our defeat in numerous big games after the fact. They exposed our across the board positional weakness up front and we wistfully ignored it until it was too late.
I still feel as if we would have won that USC game had Josh Hyman not been called for that offensive pass interference. We were up 10-6 with all the momentum, and that catch would have put us inside the 5-yard line.
How about the roughing the passer call when the Hokie lineman touched the USC in the ankle from the ground.
I hate to subscribe to officiating bias, but it was definitely in the NCAA's best interests for USC to win that game. It was one of only 2 games that weekend, so the whole country was watching.
Think USC won the Natty. They had Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush that year. A very questionable defensive pass interference call may have hurt our chances.
Offensive PI, not defensive. We were driving in the 3rd quarter up 17-7, and it looked like we had just hit Josh Hyman for about a 20-30 yard gain on a diving catch. We would have had the ball first and goal inside the USC 10 up 17-7 with a couple minutes to go in the 3rd. Instead we get pushed back to midfield, promptly punt, and USC completely takes control of the game.
Would we have still won? Who knows but I'm guessing probably not as USC was that good of a team that year, but we had them on the ropes. One bad call allowed them to regain their footing and they pulled off the comeback. They probably still would have gotten momentum again, but if we had been able to push it to 20-7 or 24-7 on that drive, it could have snowballed.
I think it was 13-7 in the third. We would have gone up 16-7 or 20-7. The final score, if memory serves was 24-13.
Another fun and useless fact from VT/USC game...........
SEC refs worked that game at Fedex. We older Hokies may recall that phantom offensive pass interference call where Hyman got robbed on a drive preserving 3rd down conversion. Momentum shifts back and we lose. Would we have won if SEC refs don't make that terrible call? Who knows, but my money would've been on the Hokies to hold USC off. Later on that year, Auburn goes undefeated and gets left out of the title game. USC routs Oklahoma for the title, where they later vacate their win for doing fraudulent things USC always does and Reggie Bush gives back his Heisman. And we end up losing to Auburn in a meaningless Sugar Bowl after Auburn got screwed by their own SEC refs at sweltering Fedex Field to open the season. Karma.
This is such a toss up season IMO because so much rides on:
-How well JJ/HH/Bush play in their first season save for a few reps at Nebraska for Bush
-How well the right side of offensive line plays in really any of the players' first time getting extended game reps
-Speaking of OL, we going to have a run game this year?
-Cam Phillips then...who? Really depending a lot on Kumah, Patterson, and some true freshman to step up
-Vinny Mihota and Trevon Hill? Beasts. Tim Settle and Ricky Walker? Beasts. What if one goes down though?
WVU - W or L wouldn't surprise me
Delaware - W
ODU - W
ECU - W
Clemson - L
Boston College - W
UNC - W or L wouldn't surprise me
Duke - W but honestly when was the last time we beat Duke decisively, 2012?
Miami - W or L wouldn't surprise me
Georgia Tech - W or L wouldn't surprise me since GT ran down our throats for 4 quarters with a backup QB last season
Pittsburgh - W
Virginia - W
We could go 11-1 or we could go 7-5 and I wouldn't be surprised one way or the other. So much uncertainty this year.
Clemson has a lot of unknowns as well so I wouldn't count out that match up in a sold out Lane
You never know so you should never go to vegas
/s
If we win between 9-11 games then the hype train for 2018 would be off the tracks.
Where we are going, we don't need tracks
I get the feeling that Duke will be a tough game. Cutcliffe always has them ready to play and their QB is impressive.
Yes.
They've really been annoying the crap out of me lately. Also with their recruiting.
If Fuente manages to pull off the NC2VT plan, I will feel a bit better about it, though.
I like to do it off of win shares when I'm projecting these things so here are my off the cuff guesstimates.
WVU-70%
Delaware: 99%
ODU- 90%
ECU-75% could maybe be bit lower since its going to be some QBs first career road start
Clemson- 40% that Dline terrifies me
Boston College- 55% could be higher/lower depending on if BC gets anything out of their offense
UNC- 65%
Duke- 55% Jones is going to be really really good IMO
Miami- 40% actually think Miami might be a bit underrated this year, defense is nasty
GT- 50% honestly dont know much about what they return but like you said, that QB kicked our ass up and down the field. He is perfect for what they want to do
Pitt- 65% Think they're in sort of a similar boat to us. Would have rather had them early in the year. They have some talent.
UVA- 75% Bit tougher for me to go higher than this for a conference rivalry road game, but could be talked into it.
So all in all that adds up to 7.79 wins and 4.21 losses so I guess I'm 8-4 as a projected record. I would probably take the over on that, but like you said I could see us going 7-5 if things went wrong. Lot of uncertainty not just with us, but across the conference. Pretty much everyone breaks in new QBs, which makes it a bit tougher to project IMO
A) We're playing at our North home field
B) I like sunglasses emojis
C) I have 13 years of support that says we should be a bit above 75%
A) 60% chance we have away field advantage in this game
B) Not sure how this helps our chances
C) Roulette wheel logic says it is time to bet on the Hoos. That's a fallacy, let it ride for 14 straight!!
Take the over on Bama, FSU, GT, Duke
Push on VT, Clemson, Louisville, UNC
Take the under on Miami
But Miami is back baby!
If you think you're joking, have a look at their recruiting and get back to us.
But seriously as concerned as I am with Miami this year I'm that much more concerned with Miami in about 2 years.
Oh yeah.
They recruit well every year, and every year they under perform. Get back to me when they actually do something with their recruiting class.
Yeah, but this year is different. They are back because Richt always wins big important games.
Just look at all the SEC titles he won.
Important Games. The SEC title is just a formality to get to the Playoffs.
When did Georgia make the playoffs? I must have missed it.
So did Georgia.
They kept losing the unimportant games before he playoffs.
yerp. I want them "bak" every year and I want us to quietly improve and bring reality crashing down on them every season. They can have the spring so long as we own the fall.
Obligatory
Wonder why Vegas didn't put out over/under for UVA? Perhaps they set their number at -1, which everyone would take the over since they will win 0 games this year?
But knowing UVA, they would find a way to somehow get to -2... TJ could figure it out, I'm sure!
I hope we beat Clemson sooooooooooo badly. Losing this many games to Clemson in a row has been very tough. I don't even want to gloat and be an obnoxious fan, I just need it for me.
Yes please
To be honest, I would be happy with a nine win regular season. I would like 10-11 better, but I can Settle for nine.
I think a 15 win season would Click for a lot of fans.
Watts that? Going for the Click Click Boom in the first reply. Very nice.
Saw this where it listed all ACC schools.
I'd imagine everyone and their mothers are plunking down their retirements on the under for LOLUVa.
I've never gambled on this type of stuff, but I'm about to start.
I see at MOST 4 Ws on their schedule
W&M - Let's assume they can win that one.
Indiana - Coin Flip
UConn - Coin Flip
@Boise - Loss
Duke - Loss
@UNCheat - Loss
BC - Coin Flip
@Pitt - Loss
GT - Loss
@Lville - Loss
@Miami - Loss
VT - Loss
You're assuming W&M is a loss. Have you learned nothing?
I just don't see 6. I'd give them maybe 5 (W&M, Indy, UConn, Duke, BC), but even that is very generous. I just don't get how a casino would set the line at 5.5 instead of 4.5 when it would take a veritable miracle to get bowl eligible. I thought you were supposed to set lines where it could easily go either way (see, Virginia Tech: 8.5 wins).
I would take the under and then be a little nervous for the first three games. Once they pull a LOLUVa and drop one of their "gimmies" I'd be able to enjoy the rest of the season.
I would say they lose two of the three coin flips and win 1 or 2 that they should not win. That is at most 4 wins with W&M as a win. There is no way they will get 6.
Sounds about right for us
Does anyone get closer to beating more "good" teams that LOLUVA?
Watching them lose to Notre Dame and Louisville last second has made football season that much better.