Coach-em-up Rankings, Pt I

We sometimes debate here the relative merits of elite recruiting
vs. the abilitiy to find under-the-rader talent, or system guys,
and coach them up.  So I decided to take a look at the
numbers for the teams in the ACC coastal to see if I could draw
any conclusions. In part I (of a possibly one-part series), I take
a look at VT, LOLUVA, and UNC...

Methodology
For each coach, I used the 247.com
composite recruiting rankings for each year. Using a formula I
devised (so it's not in the least bit scientific), I calculated
the expected performance of the team, based on recruiting class
rankings. Finally, I used either the final AP
poll (or sagarin
ratings if the team was unranked by AP) to determine the
actual performance for that year.

My formula for expected results is the sum of the expected level
of contribution for each class multiplied by the class ranking:
expected = (0.1 * 1st-year) + (0.15 * 2nd-year) + (0.3 * 3rd
year) + (0.3 * 4th-year) + (0.15 * 5th-year)

where 1st-year are true freshmen, 2nd-year are redshirt freshmen
and true sophomores, etc. Argue with my formula all you want, it's
just a guess on my part. Hope that makes sense. If not, leave a
comment, and I'll try to better explain.

Virginia Tech

Coaches:

Recruiting Rankings, Expected Results, and Actual Results:

Grades:

Frank Beamer:

This is really a tale of two Beamers. The good Beamer, who
coached from 2004-2011, and Franken-Beamer, who coached from
2012-2015. The good Beamer beat expectation every.single.year.
And by a hefty margin to boot. Then things fell off a cliff. In
his last four years, Franken-Beamer teams failed to live up to
expectations by an average of 17 positions. I'd really like to
go back and find the data for pre-2002, because I believe it
would reinforce my belief that the real Beamer is the good
Beamer. Overall, he did a great job getting his teams to
overachieve, but you can't just ignore the last four years.
Recruiting: B, Results: B+,
Coaching-em-up: B

Justin Fuente:

Coach Fuente really got things back on track in his first year
at the helm, beating expectations by a solid 10 positions.
Unfortunately, there's only one year of data to work with, which
isn't enough to draw any definitive conclusions.
Recruiting: B+, Results: A,
Coaching-em-up: Incomplete

LOLUVA

Coaches:

Recruiting Rankings, Expected Results, and Actual Results:

Grades

Al Groh:

Groh started off with a couple of top-15 recruiting classes,
but could never field a team that lived up to that hype. Still,
his teams hovered around top-30 status, and for three years met
or exceeded expectations.
Recruiting: B, Results: B,
Coaching-em-up: C

Mike London:

A string of top-30 recruiting classes never showed it on the
field. London's 'Hoos exceeded expectations only once in his
tenure, and failed miserably most years. His -28 differential is
pretty terrible, as were his teams.
Recruiting: B, Results: D,
Coaching-em-up: F

Bronco Mendenhall:

His first year was a spectacular failure on the field, missing
expectations by 56 spots. Recruiting wasn't great
either. It's only one year, but the early results look good for
the Orange and Maroon.
Recruiting: C-, Results: F,
Coaching-em-up: Incomplete

UNC

Coaches:

Recruiting Rankings, Expected Results, and Actual Results:

Grades

John Bunting:

Good, but not great recruiting. Bad teams. Only came close to
matching expectations once.
Recruiting: B, Results: C-,
Coaching-em-up: F

Butch Davis:

An ace recruiter, pulling in top-15 classes twice. But the
talent never showed up on the field, with average rankings
around 40th. Came close to meeting expectations only once.
Recruiting: A-, Results: C+,
Coaching-em-up: D

With:

One year isn't much to go on,  but going 7-6 with top-20
talent aint good. UNC agreed.
Recruiting: A-, Results:C,
Coaching-em-up: F

Larry Fedora:

The numbers are somewhat skewed by the terrible -40
performance in 2014. Since then, though, his teams have beat
(2015) or come close to (2016) expectations. It's hard to tell
if he's trending upward, or if 2015 was a fluke. Still, the
numbers don't lie, and a -12 overall differential is not great.
Recruiting: B, Results:
C+, Coaching-em-up: C-

Conclusion
So there you have it. At the top of our coach-em-up list are
Justin Fuente and Frank Beamer, which should come as no
surprise.  In the roll of dishonor, the worst coaches were
(excluding one-and-dones) Mike London, John Bunting, and Butch
Davis. If there's interest, part II will look at Duke, Georgia
Tech, and Pittsburgh.