Tech Tidbits: Amid a Wave of Transfers, Could the Hapless Hokies Finally Lose to UVA?

I won't remember much about what was a thoroughly forgettable loss to Miami last weekend, but I will remember Dax Hollifield.

There wasn't much new to stand out about the loss to the Canes, after all — the Hokies' offense collapsed utterly in the second half, while the defense allowed big play after big play. In short, just about par for the course for Virginia Tech these last few weeks.

But Hollifield, who has taken on more and more playing time recently due to both injuries and Bud Foster's need to find something (anything) that works on defense, jumped out.

Even from my vantage point at the tippy top of Lane's east stands, his explosiveness and vision was apparent. Though he filled up the box score in what was an otherwise dismal day for the defense — recording six tackles, a sack and two more TFLs — I could've sworn that Hollifield had wracked up even larger numbers.

I say all this not to put a rosy spin on another terrible loss (I have rarely, if ever, been more dispirited upon leaving a Tech game) but to draw a historic parallel to years past.

When Frank Beamer's teams faltered at the end of the season, and they certainly did so in his final years in Blacksburg, it was easy to see young players start to step up and form the core of the next year's squad. This was always especially apparent on defense, which I suspect is a credit to Bud Foster and a large contributor to his longevity.

Accordingly, seeing Hollifield flying around the field gave me some hope that this process was underway once more. Though he may be just a freshman, Hollifield is already one of the most promising players on that side of the ball and seems like a lock for a starting spot next year, whether that means he's taking Dylan Rivers' spot at backer or playing at mike (as Foster suggested he might do more of Monday).

But it also brings to mind the same question those faltering Beamer teams did: will Hollifield be at the center of Tech's next great defense as part of a rejuvenated squad overall? Or will he be a bright spot on a squad that continues to disappoint?

With one, perhaps two, games left this season, I honestly can't say which I'm leaning toward right now. It's not a great feeling, to say the least.

It all makes for quite the unusual Hate Week, but it is Hate Week nonetheless. Let's get to it.

Blacksburg Exodus?

The back-to-back announcements that LB Rico Kearney and WR Sean Savoy would be transferring would feel crushing and chaotic in most other years; this season, they pretty much seem par for the course.

The impact of these moves seems deeply unclear to me as it stands now. From the most granular, purely X's and O's perspective, losing each player is bad, but far from debilitating — Kearney may never have become a permanent starter at LB but seemed like a quality depth option, while Savoy plainly had talent but got crowded out of the WR mix after a big freshman year.

The more meaningful way to evaluate their decisions to leave the program is in the context of everything that's come before. That includes the prior departures of guys like D'Andre Plantin and Cam Goode, not to mention the players booted from the team in the offseason.

I'm of two minds about how to evaluate what all these departures, particularly by players who were either making meaningful contributions to the team currently or had a clear path to do so going forward, mean for the locker room.

One could easily examine all this and press the panic button, claiming that Justin Fuente has lost the locker room and alienated large swaths of his team. If you simply sat on Twitter all day and read the infighting about one particular tweet from Plantin (not to mention one from Quincy Patterson backing Savoy's since deleted posts), it'd be easy to jump to such a conclusion.

Won't be the last 🤷🏾‍♂️— Dandre Plantin (@ERA_of_MOAM56) November 19, 2018

But there is, of course, the other perspective. It's easy to be unsatisfied with your situation when the team is on a lengthy losing streak and the mood is gloomy in Blacksburg. College football overseers have also gradually loosened transfer rules over the years, allowing for athletes to move around more easily, and Fuente hasn't made a habit of putting onerous conference limitations on where players are allowed to transfer.

Some fans are mad, confused and I get it. And I've heard from outsiders the sky is falling. Bottom line is that it happened when I payed. When you're losing everything is magnified. I don't like seeing players transfer during the season but a lot of these kids now are different. https://t.co/oQlznB4gVW— Dwight Vick (@vick757) November 19, 2018

I fully expect that the truth lies a bit closer to Vick's interpretation of things, as much as it might feel nice to embrace the simplicity of putting all the blame on the coaches.

But I think that all of the departures, regardless of the individual reasons behind them, show that Fuente is embracing a distinctly my-way-or-the-highway sort of approach. He's spoken before about not wanting to put individual players ahead of the overall team's wellbeing, and it sure seems as if his methods of managing that dynamic have ruffled some feathers, perhaps a bit more than we might expect.

That should not read as strictly a criticism of Fuente, mind you. It may well be what the team needs, even if the results are ugly now.

The question is whether we'll see this sort of flow of players out of the program continue, particularly if the Hokies lose to UVA and start the offseason earlier than they have for the last few decades. I suspect that will tell us more about just how concerned to actually be about all this.

Coming to Terms with the Distinct Chance of a UVA Loss

Speaking of the unthinkable, it sure seems like time to start pondering the possibility that Tech will finally lose to UVA!

The Hoos have since fallen back to earth a bit from the heady days when it seemed they'd win the Coastal and vie for a nine-to-10 win season. Much like the Hokies, their last ACC win came against UNC and much like the Hokies, it was a while ago — UVA's lost two of their last three, dropping games to both GT and Pitt but beating Liberty.

But the defense has been really good (the Hoos are 22nd in the country in yards allowed per game right now, No. 35 overall in S&P+) and the offense has its moments as well. QB Bryce Perkins has been a revelation, in particular, even if the unit as a whole has only been mediocre.

Perkins is not only completing 65 percent of his passes, and has put up a 19-9 TD-INT ratio, but he's also second on the team in rushing with 730 yards on the ground and nine scores.

"The thing that jumps off the film to me about Bryce is that he does not ever look like he's trying very hard," said Fuente. "He's such a smooth athlete. It never looks like he's straining. The amount of tackles that have been missed, that he's made people miss when getting outside and running around is pretty astounding."

So, yeah, seems like the sort of player that could give this Hokies defense some problems. In his film preview, French detailed how the dynamic open field runner makes the UVA offense tick and the necessity for the Tech defense to swarm Perkins.

Tech has the advantage of being at home, but the fact that the team is 1-4 at home this year (and that lone win was against William and Mary) shows that may not matter much.

The one factor seemingly working in the Hokies' favor is that they have plenty to play for when it comes to defending the Commonwealth Cup streak and earning a chance to play for a bowl.

Interestingly, some former players told Mike Barber of the Richmond Times-Dispatch that they valued the latter over the former. Others, it would seem, are much more interested in pushing toward a second decade of dominance.

"This game is my favorite game of the year," DT Ricky Walker said Monday, via Barber. "It's nothing like playing against those guys up the road. No matter what, they always think they're better than us. And we just keep on winning and dominating."

Of course, there is this perspective, as shared by Derek Smith.

"We need to beat UVA but I am also coming to terms with the inevitable," Smith told Barber. "This year should be considered the divider for our history and now allow the new era of (Virginia Tech) football to happen, whatever direction coaches (and administration) take it for 2019 and beyond."

Yikes. He may not be wrong, though.

The Marshall Plan

If the Hokies can avoid the outcome Smith describes, then that sets up yet another home game, this time against Marshall.

Or, as the official release on Tech's website puts it, the "potential exists" for a game on Dec. 1. Tell me that phrase isn't horrifically sad.

Regardless, it's an interesting deal the Hokies and the Herd have worked out here. As Barber describes it, Tech has agreed to fork over a $100,000 payment no matter what, and that escalates to $300,000 if the game actually happens.

And there's the added bonus of a future home-and-home, which Barber reports the two programs will play regardless of what happens on Friday.

It's hardly the worst deal for Tech, considering the Hokies have certainly played on Marshall's turf before — Tech's last game against Marshall was a home game in some torrential rain in 2013, but the Hokies traveled to Huntington in 2011. The two programs even have some history, having faced off a total of 12 times over the years.

Barber was even able to uncover that John Ballein (Beamer's long-tenured confidante) helped make the deal happen, no doubt due to some of that history.

The lone catch for Tech comes in how much the home-and-home disrupts future schedules. The Hokies have some full dance cards in the coming years, with non-conference matchups scheduled against everyone from Penn State to West Virginia to Wisconsin.

Years of home/home with Marshall TBA. If before 2030, VT will have to shed some previously scheduled games. https://t.co/v5SVjb72tO— David Teel (@DavidTeelatDP) November 19, 2018

Of course, there's also the disturbing downside to consider that Marshall may simply refuse to cooperate and beat the Hokies. The Herd is a robust 7-3 this year (including a 42-20 win over one team the Hokies might be familiar with: ODU) and ranks 17th in the national in total defense, No. 7 S&P+ defense.

Doc Holliday's bunch is less intimidating on offense, coming in at a whopping 85th overall, 112th S&P+, and they are a Conference USA team, at the end of the day.

But the Hokies can't count on a win should they make it to this game, and it would be darkly comic if Tech managed to beat UVA and then lose this transparent bowl bid.

If nothing else, it would prove that ECU is unparalleled when it comes to finding new and interesting ways to ruin Virginia Tech's season.