Looking at VT's transition from a Mid-Major basketball team to becoming a member of a Major conference had me wondering about how other teams handled this. Since VT jumped to the Big East in the fall of 2000, 10 other schools have made the jump. Two of those schools jumped ship for football (USF and Cincy were in the BE from 2005-2012, but now are back as mid majors). Three of the schools joined the BE in 2013 (Creighton, Butler, Xavier). I left those 5 schools because well these graphs suck to make and not great amounts of post jump data. That leaves Marquette, TCU, Utah, UofL, and Depaul.
Here are the winning percentages over those years:
Everyone is kind of up and down over the entire time. When we look at trending from mid major to major conference we get this (note the breaks in lines are when each school made the jump:
As we see jumping conference is tough. Three of the schools have done worse in their new conference, which should make sense as major conference should be harder than mid majors. However, the 3 that have positive trendlines in their new conferences all have negative trend lines prior to making the jump. Marquette is kind of odd in how flat it's trend lines are before and after the jump. Utah looks like it is a bad year (2011) from having a flatter line. VT has the least mid major data in the set i am using so it looks like a steep downward trend. However, 1995 is a spike in winning percentage and one of VTs best seasons. If we were to trend out a few more years we get:
VT made two conference jumps, BE in 2000, ACC in 2004. The only other school to make a jump from Mid major to major to different major is UofL. Interestingly enough both UofL and VT used to be in the metro conference.
As you can see the Big East was good to both UofL and VT. The ACC hasn't been great for UofL.
Though this is limited data, I think that it's not clear to say that the competition is better so teams do worse, or recruiting is better so you can improve. I did not take into account strength of conference, but 2000-2003 BE was a tough conference and I feel it was much tougher than 2004 ACC.
Comments
Interesting post. Thanks for taking the time to write this.
Welcome. This was a first cut of what I really am interested in. I really want to compare all of our sports before and after. As you can see there are only so many schools to make the jump and we were really the first (the creation of the BIG 12 a couple years before is a different story).
Always enjoy community creates content like this.
I would just add that the UofL has had it's own issues. They had a self-imposed post-season ban in the 15-16 season. Then the summer/fall of 2017 was a complete disaster. With all of the option open for kids now, there was zero reason to show up on that campus and don a Cardinal uniform. I'm now sure their record during this period is truly indicative to switching conferences and how teams fair. Syracuse and Pitt might be better examples.
I'd also add that UofL are among the early handful of favorites for next year's title...so once the scandal stuff is behind them, they will be fine. I understand this doesn't guarantee success, but circle back in 3 years to check on them.
UoL somehow still makes so much money for their athletic department.
In Kentucky you have UofL and UK. There is not really any other professional sport teams with hardcore canvases unless you include Cincinnati. It's the same as Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas and others. You're not sharing fans (money) with other teams.
These sort of things matter a lot in Kentucky. Especially to those that don't like big blue down the road...
They might make it, but they don't spend enough of it.
There are a TON of UofL fans in the city of Louisville. That means they all are still very much engaged in all things concerning UofL.
They've also fully bought into corporate branding: KFC Yum Center, and (previously) Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
I debated about adding the troubles to the post but it was late so I went to bed.
Syracuse and Pitt were never in a mid-major conference though, they were early members of the Big East in the 70s or early 80s. Not a valid comparison.
What conference did VT come from to the ACC?
This is talking about mid major conferences the time line is broken out when VT jumped to the BE from the A10 (except the UofL comparison) since they made 2 conference changes. But if you want cause just put a solid line above everyone else. Pitt did make the jump from the EAA to the BE in late 70s. If you think the BE is a mid major conference, especially in basketball then you need to read up on some history. I'm 90% sure there was an all BE final four.
Alright, never said the BE was a mid-major. I'm old enough to know the Big East from the glory days. Trust me.
I suggested Pitt and Syracuse because they also joined the ACC, like UofL, but don't have the scandal cloud hanging around during that time frame. Not because of a jump from a mid-major to the ACC.
Sorry I misunderstand what you were saying. Cuse has been killing it for years. Boeheim has failed to win 20+ games like 4 times about 40 years. Cuse has a 73% winning percentage since under Boeheim. I think they missed the post season (NCAA or NIT) once under him not including a couple of ineligible seasons.
Pitt is going on a steep decline because Jamie Dixon left. It's hard to tell with them.
Interesting.. Confirms Louisville has been a traditional power, and Marquette has a better recruiting base than others.
Looking at UofL is a bit odd. They've had talent basketball and football programs for a long time and it took them until 2005 to get into a major conference.