"In Virginia Tech's case, it really is a rebuild. The Hokies went 25-25 over the last four seasons. Along the way, they've lost to 10 out of the 13 other ACC programs at least once (Louisville, NC State, and FSU being the holdouts). It wasn't just a coaching and play-calling issue for Virginia Tech. It was a talent problem.
Before Virginia Tech even thinks about being a legitimate ACC contender again, Pry needs to significantly upgrade the talent level across the board."
Mapping the rebuild: year 1 offense
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tl;dr we're not going to be good anytime soon.
Yeah, that plan is very pie in the sky to think VT will be competitive in year 2
Cameron Ward would help in that regard...if we (miraculously) get him in the fold, I think there's an Avengers-domino effect where we swing the best guys in the portal to come to Blacksburg
My hope is:
2022 - bottom out, get rid of any problem players and install the new system; just want to see good recruiting and the players to put in the effort and work on the field and in the weight room, even if we have only 3 or 4 wins
2023 - be respectable
2024 - be at least okay and maybe pretty good, say 7-6 or 8-5
2025 - be truly good, as in no worse than 9-4 and ideally 10+ wins and that includes winning the bowl game
Would love for things to improve faster and be better, but will be quite happy if the above is seen.
Relax. We're still in year -3.
A lil off topic, but still related to rebuild. I just saw this quote from Hooker in The Athletic and.... wow. Implies everything we've been hearing about playing for Corny
"I love this offense," Hooker said. "It gives us free range in decision-making and allows us to show off our arms and athletic ability."
Sure would be nice to have a great QB1.
If you think Hooker's comments on the Athletic are damning, you should listen to some of things that JJ, Mook, and Kumah have said on the Don V Fridays Podcast.
The most recent one with Jackson was amazing. He said he was on the phone with other former players during games literally calling out what plays we would run and they would be right. We were that predictable.
Very interesting listen.
Talks a decent amount about some of the head-scratching issues with the Corn-fence.
Talks about a play I definitely remember...the fumble on the GoalLine in the 2017 Camping World Bowl. Instead of running a QB Sneak for an easy TD, Corn called a Zone Read to Peoples that was subsequently Fumbled. Completely changed the momentum of the Game.
JJ talks about how he wanted to change the play so bad, knew he could change to QB Sneak and get behind Teller and walk in, but since Fuente chose to run the program like the USSR, he knew Audibles weren't allowed.
Its sad that we had a Coaching Staff that insisted on treating our players like children when in reality they were the ones who were clueless and mistake-prone.
I can't stress how happy I am to have this Staff gone, I think I may mark 11/16 on my Calendar and celebrate it like a Holiday each year.
I'm confident we win that game if we score there in the Camping World bowl. It was a perfect start until that moment.
Even crazier on that bowl game moment was that JJ mentioned that he knew the zone read was a handoff, so it wasn't actually a read at all. Scripted handoff "disguised" as a read. Like why even implement that.
you do it so the defense can't dial in what you're doing every play, and to take the mental load off your QB for a play. If the defense has a set of keys for defending the option action they're going to be weaker against the straight handoff / straight keeper because they have someone assigned to cover the guy without the ball...
a few years back Auburn ran a ton of those fake options while setting NCAA offense records.
the issue with Cornelsen is he would call the fake option and it wouldn't fool anyone, so the QB handing the ball off would have a mile of open space or vice versa
also Auburn had a Heisman winner running the ball and not a Ryan Willis, Josh Jackson, or Connor Blumrick.
That waasn't must a Corny/Fu thing, though. I've heard stuff like that for the past 20 years.
Oh for sure.
There's been a few former players who have begun airing dirty laundry over the last few days about Corny and Fuente. Some of it bordering on straight up asshole behavior
YIKES! Forgive my ignorance, which former player is this?
2015 commit, DB DuWayne Johnson
Worth noting he also said this about Bud
This is bad, but I think the most damning stuff I've heard is about injuries. That stuff legit makes me angry.
Agreed, but its starting to look like he might not have been the kind of guy we thought he was when he was hired, and might have ended up being a stark contrast to Beamer, in an unflattering way.
Could we get a separate thread with these stories? Maybe it's piling on but I'm curious now.
I'll leave it to someone else to do... I don't love sharing Don V pods here because I think he asks leading questions and never challenges the person he's talking to, while shitting on the staff without hearing their side of the story.
But I still listen to them and comment on them... maybe that makes me a hypocrite but π€·ββοΈ
Yeah I enjoy the shows but he does stuff like ask Kumah "oh, you had a Miami offer, why didn't you go there??"
who cares? Miami has probably been handing out cash for a long time so it's valid
I'm not so sure Fu is the good person many say, or assume, he is. I'm not saying he's evil, but its clear to me he isn't exactly a people person, at best.
I think you're right. I have a family member who doesn't say anything bad about anyone who met Fuente a few years ago in passing. Apparently Fu couldn't be bothered and was annoyed that some "nobody" would say hello, so he was an absolute jerk. It was probably about 2018 or so and I'll leave out the details to protect identities, but I knew right then that he'd never fit in the NRV.
Everyone says this is going to be a long rebuild with a bad first year, but no one is saying what a bad first year means. There's a big difference between having a 2-win season and a 6-win season. Both are 'bad' at VT, but one is much worse.
I don't expect us to win the Coastal next year, but I do think this team should win at least 4 games, and could reasonably get to 6 wins (though hardly a given).
The coastal is on track to be pretty awful next year which I think is why no one is putting a win number there.... we could win 6 games and still be a very bad team.
I honestly don't think it's unreasonable to expect a bowl next year. This is a winnable schedule in a division full of rebuilding teams. The roster is bad, but it was still a 6-win roster despite some horrendous offensive coaching. If we can bring in a P5-level QB (and that should be the expectation, imo, only asking for basic competence) 6 wins is doable.
it's not though. It's a "all time bad conference bowl loss" roster.
That's still 6 wins. Consider that next year we play ODU and Wofford, no matter the roster those should be wins. We also play Duke and GT, two squads that were demonstrably worse and are facing even steeper rebuilds than us. That's only two wins left to steal from Liberty with no qb who won 7 games against G5 schools. Also-6-win BC, UNC, WVU, and UVA whom we beat and remain a bunch of Hoos. Our toughest games are against Pitt without their all-timer QB, an NC State program that has never been more than "pretty good", and a Miami that won 7 games. Not saying we should be playing in Charlotte or anything, but the schedule features plenty of squads in similar or worse shape as ours.
I've seen this argument, but I HIGHLY doubt any of those schools had the kind of roster turnover we just had. So comparing their wins this past year to us, when we are currently choosing between Blumrick and Bullock as starting QB and sophomores across our lines, no proven receivers, etc is a bad comparison. And if you look at our bowl performance, don't forget some guys played that will be gone next year. We are going to be so raw at so many positions, it's not even funny. So to say "plenty of squads in similar or worse shape as ours" doesn't feel anywhere close to true.
A lot can change with potential incoming portal transfers, a new S&C program, hopefully good coaching, etc. but I doubt there are any teams that you listed that are as bad off as we are right now.
Fair points but in this league, a competent QB transfer could steal 6 wins. Not necessarily Evans level but a Brewer level guy could be the difference if we could find one this spring.
I don't think we win 6 games this past season without BB, Turner, Robinson, Barno, Waller, Jordan Williams, the Smiths Tyrell and Lecitus, Tae Daley, etc.
Gonna need to hit it out of the park in the portal and hope some true freshmen are surprise contributors, but I can see a bowl game next season
This is very true- but we also snatched defeat from the jaws of victory three times (WVU, ND, and Syracuse).
I wouldn't say I would 'expect' a bowl appearance next year, but I think it's obtainable given our schedule.
This is a much better phrasing, thanks
I think people are just sandbagging their hopes with 2 win predictions. We should get at least 4 wins just by beating our FCS opponents in ODU, Wofford, Liberty, and UVA
And Duke and GT and we've already got 6
Nice. And yes I agree. Depending on if we roll out a capable QB, we should be in the 4-6 win range depending on how the ACC shakes out. We are in bad shape, but so is Duke, and GT. Maybe we play a clearly better team than us on a week when their starting QB and best WR are out with minor injuries and we eek out a 20-17 win, etc. W-L projections for a schedule rarely shake out exactly as we expect them to, especially at our tier of college football and the conference we play in. We've dropped games like that when we were the stronger side.
Many had South Carolina as a 3-4 win team this year, and they managed to win 7. They were physical, but had glaring flaws. They took care of business OOC, beat Vandy (barely), and stole wins from a reeling Florida program on the verge of major coaching change and internal collapse, and caught Auburn on the perfect night in November at home.
We just got obliterated by an average, at best, Maryland team, and only ran for 122 yards against a bad run defense when that was supposed to be a strength of ours. Is there anything legitimate that you can point to that is relative performance that actually makes you think we can win some of these games? "Duke is bad" isn't a good reason to expect us to win. We are going to be bad, like REALLY bad, but not through any fault of the kids or coaches. A lot of our more experienced players left, and we're going to be installing new offenses and defenses.
Counting ODU as a win? Didn't they beat us recently? Didn't Liberty beat us recently? And both of those losses were with more experienced rosters.
Not that I really expect to only win 2 games, but expecting us to win against any team we play next year (other than like Wofford) seems like we're wearing some orange and maroon glasses. I'd be THRILLED to get 6 wins next year, but expecting anything close is the type of thing that seems like people would start blaming the coaches and ignoring where we really are right now and how big a rebuild project this is.
Me personally, I think losing to ODU and Liberty even this year is unacceptable from a perception point of view, and I think Pry would probably say the same. The premier team of the state just shouldn't lose to non-P5 schools regardless of the rebuild state. Both of those losses should have been immediate firings or staff shakeups for Fuente imo.
^^This. As much as I'm a VT fan, we can't gloss over the fact that almost every playmaker and starting lineman is gone. And we're trying to replace them with players from lowly rated recruiting classes and/or true freshmen. Things could be very ugly. Without hitting the portal lottery, the 2022 will be the most shallow one in terms of talent in decades. I am very concerned that we're going to struggle to get to .500.
3 of those beat much more talented VT teams in recent years.
Leg for the UVA dig
Yes and we've fired our coach responsible for those and hired a new one with the expectation that we don't.
This rebuild isn't about money for more videographers, hudl subscriptions, other sports being allowed to use Merryman, access to jets for recruiting- none of that bullshit. They myth that VT has poor facilities and doesn't support football financially is a total myth. We have sucked because our coach sucked. He couldn't recruit, retain or develop top talent, so we lost a bunch of games to a bunch of shit teams. If you think the Maryland shit show was about "facilities" I have a bridge to sell you. That was a bunch of small skinny guys trying to play football with no legitimate QB. Whose accountable for that? Price? lol. This rebuild is about talent. Period. Pry will rebuild the program when he gets ACC players in here, and not a moment before. If he can re-stock the roster, he will win.
I know this is a new year, but so far this is the best post of the new year! I completely agree.
Nail meet head: "Pry will rebuild the program when he gets ACC players in here, and not a moment before. If he can re-stock the roster, he will win"
Well said! Also, don't underestimate what proper coaching and a culture change can do in just a year. Look at South Carolina...
I agree that we might win more than people think by having competent coaching, however what DC hits on and is missed a lot in the "how many years does Pry need" thread is that while we don't have the facilities and support other teams have, the program can't be back no matter how many games we've won until we fill the roster with ACC talent (which looking around the ACC shouldn't be hard).
Lots of teams win with less talent, but that is rarely sustainable. Even Boise was sending players to the NFL routinely in the Chris Peterson days. So while better coaching might get us more wins than expected (see USCe), talent is whats going to get the wins next year and the year after and so forth. Lots of fans only know VT from their string of 10 win seasons and think that is the norm, or can be the norm. So to do that its about the Jimmy's and Joe's
Anyone that thinks otherwise is an excuse maker.
THIS!! ^^^
Our schedule seems to be pretty soft next year, so if we win our OOC games, plus two conference games, we're already at 5-6 wins. That schedule might be just what the doctor ordered to keep our spirits up over the course of a major rebuilding year. Although top talent is not quite here, we're young and have a lot of experience returning. I'm also assuming we will pick up a decent QB transfer at some point, along with some other nice transfers to beef up our lines and linebackers. New coaches to coach up these guys, along with a fresh positive attitude, will accelerate the turnaround. Just getting a competent coaching staff in here should help alot. I'm optimistic that we'll be competitive in the Coastal in 2-3 years.
If we don't get 5 wins next year I'll be pretty pissed off. Unless Pry just completely cleans house in which case it's understandable.
Barring a complete house clean I expect 5-7 wins next season and 6-8 wins in year 2. By year 3 I think it will be pretty clear what direction the program is going in and we can reevaluate then
Wow, that seems overly optimistic. Look at any real major college football program rebuild. Fuente had Bud Foster and a fairly in tact roster. That DOES NOT happen in P5 football very often. New coaches, new system, new players. Beating 2/3 OOC schedule will be be a good thing, Duke and GT wins will be extraordinary. Hang on to your hats because this is going to get much worse before it gets better. Go back and watch that bowl game. That is where we are. While new coaching staff should be better, we all hope anyway, if your honest, you have to understand they will NOT be better by any significant order of magnitude. In all reality a 1 or 2 win season(s) is entirely possible, and maybe probable, especially if a decent QB can not be found in the portal. I will be patient if we play the young guys early, win some recruiting battles and for gods sake hit the S&C program with vigor.
If you will truly be pissed off at anything less than 5 wins next year, regardless of recruiting wins, the teams toughness/attitude, and the "eye test" of watching the team play, you are insane. That's a ridiculous position to take, considering the roster Fu left us, but hey, whatever floats your boat.
Dude look at the schedule:
At ODU
Wofford
Duke
At Liberty
We need to win those 4, and I refuse to believe we can't steal one of:
GT
bad WVU
BC
similar rebuilding UVA
I guarantee regardless of what you or anyone else says now, that attitude will change during the season if we lose to WVU, Liberty AND UVA. I actually think my 5 wins goal is a lot more lenient than most people on this site will be. (I don't care where the wins come from).
Like I said, you do you. But speaking for myself, I won't judge the season or the staff purely on year "-3" wins and losses on paper. If we go 3-9 and I see progress, attitude, and culture, I won't be "pissed".
That being said, I tend to agree with your summary and think it's absolutely possible to win 5+. My point was more about not getting pissed if it doesn't happen, not that I think it can't.
I agree with this. But considering Liberty DESTROYED Eastern Michigan 56-20, I can't see them being an even remotely easy win for us, or even necessarily one that we SHOULD win given our current roster (bowl team-draft entries+recruiting class+unknown portal=still not good next year (unless we pull some incredible transfers, but for now anyway)).
Moving from those first four into the range of potentially winning 2 more feels even more suspect to me (again, given my formula above)
They also lost to Cuse and a 4-win ULM and are losing their NFL caliber qb that they lucked into
So did we, with a team that would have beat the pants off the shitshow we took to New York.
Yeah I meant pissed off more as in the state of the program, as in "ah fuck we just lost to Liberty and UVA (and WVU/Duke whoever)" not pissed at coach Pry. Should've been more specific.
But Dzansi back makes more hopeful we could get 5, or better π
Obligatory WTF gif.....
That's an unrealistic expectations for the new staff. The cupboard hasn't been this bare in Blacksburg in arguably 30 years. Our recruiting class had some decent hits but it was nowhere near enough to cover for everything that was lost. We were a bad team last year, and just got a lot worse through the portal and draft.
I don't care how "easy" of a schedule we supposedly have next year, we are going to have one of the least talented rosters in the P5. That's just the reality that Justin Fuente left us. Expecting to beat any team is setting yourself up for anger and disappointment. We've have more talented rosters lose within the past 5 years to every single team on our schedule next year (except Wofford).
I don't care one bit about W/L in 2022. This roster is awful, thanks to Justin Fuente not being able to recruit me to drink a cold IPA. What I do care about though is if the team plays tough, has an identity and gets better as the year goes on. If that happens, I'll be very happy.
the won loss total next year means nothing. do we get tougher? do we learn to tackle, or continue to play grab ass football? Do we learn how to rush the football and truly learn to execute play action pass? I think that our future looks much more bright if we can execute the fundamentals.
I'm not sure I've ever agreed more with dcwilson than I do right here
This coaching change has got to be crushing DC's leg status - all the up votes are way off brand.
Overall, I agree with you. My kid is an MV and will be a senior next year, so I'd love for them to get to any bowl so in that regard I'll be disappointed if we don't win 6. But, I won't be disappointed in the coaching staff or team if they do as you say.
IPAs were designed to make long voyages unrefrigrated, so go for Fuente not compromising and making you drink a less than ideal beer/s
Do we have an identity on the offense? Do we play to the strengths of that identity? Does it look like the coach that is calling the plays understands how to read a room and adjust accordingly? If these things happen in the first year then we have made progress. (God that is sad to type) Filling positions will be easier if we can show recruits what we are doing and how we are doing it, even with our current roster. Let us get a couple wins and it may snowball in the following years, who knows. I'm still waiting to hear what the new OC thinks of the jet sweep.
this sweep?
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/ohio-state-football/2016/10/75473/a...
My Win/Loss expectations for next year are pretty low. As we've discussed ad nauseum, this cupboard is incredibly bare, so i'll be more interested in developing an identity and playing better throughout the year. However I think the offense could look a little better than we think (which admittedly is very bad) next year because the offense and usage of talent was criminally mismanaged under the previous regime.
Recruiting was terrible so I'm not suggesting that we're going to look like the greatest show on turf, but when you think about all of the head scratchers CornFu made personnel wise either out of stubbornness or incompetence (Willis over HH, BB over HH, Blackshear's usage in the last three games, pulling Malachi Thomas out of nowhere to have him run for 150 yards and then bury him again, etc etc) I think it's very possible that there could be contributors on the roster that weren't given a chance for whatever reason.
Going to piggyback here.... if we get a good QB, anything is possible.