I thought I'd take a look at our upcoming schedule to see how our opponents stack up, defensively against Virginia Tech's ground assault. Is it going to be the proverbial clash of unstoppable forces meeting immovable objects?
I put together two sets of data. For the upcoming opponents, how did they do defending the run relative to their FBS opponents' outputs in their other games. For example, how well did GT do in stopping FSU relative to how well FSU has run against other FBS opponents? Then I averaged out all of that data.
The second set of data is how well Virginia Tech ran against their opponents, relative to their opponents ability to stop the run against teams not named Virginia Tech. For example, how well did the Hokies do on the ground against Vanderbilt, compared to what Vanderbilt has given up on the ground to everybody else? Then I averaged out all of that data.
Georgia Tech seems to hold their opponents to about 3.7% fewer yards on the ground than their opponents are used to getting, for about 17 yards per game less.
Likewise, Syracuse has held their opponents to 8% fewer yards on the ground, or about 26 yards per game.
Clemson allows about 8.2% more than their opponents, or about 4.4 yards per game.
Duke also gets pummeled on the ground, allowing 37 yards per game more, or about 60% more than what their opponents are used to getting.
Virginia is the stingiest so far, holding their opponents to 17% fewer yards, or about 34 yards per game less.
Now for the Hokies.
Hokies are getting it done on the ground.
Virginia Tech has been putting up 80 yards per game more than their opponents are used to allowing or about 76% more. Taking out Vanderbilt, the Hokies are almost doubling their opponents YTD rushing defense numbers. Not having the time (or want) to look at every other team in the FBS, that has to be one of the highest in the league, especially for a team that doesn't rely exclusively on the triple option.
In ACC play, the only team to hold the Hokies under 182% more than average was Stanford, and the Hokies still managed 17.2 per game more than Stanford was allowing at this point.
Comments
Very interesting.
Tuten left, tuten right,tuten up the middle
↑Tuten↑Tuten↓Tuten↓Tuten←Tuten→Tuten←Tuten→Tuten B Tuten A start
This comment deserves plaid. Tuten is a cheat code.
30 lives baby!
Hopefully the OL learns how to handle a stunt and keeps Tuten going 5 yards before contact.
If we can run on Clemson we have a chance... Otherwise it will be the Kyron Drones running backwards sack/throwaway fest.
I fully expect that Clemson game to throw cold water on this offense. But that's because I'm still scarred from the beating the Louisville and NC State DLs administered to our OL last year when we thought we had turned the corner.
But outside of them, if we keep leaning on the ground game I don't see a reason we can't run the table for the other games.
Here's another way to look at this:
None of these stats are opponent adjusted. It does not account for any trends.
All of our opponents' defenses (except Clemson's) have been better at stopping the run than our offense has been at imposing the run.
We are losing to Clemson and we are losing in the fucking Dome. Wish I was wrong. Just like we are never beating Louisville in mens hoops again now that they have an actual coach. Yes never. So let's hope we win the other 3 games and continue to improve.
I think it more likely that we lose to Syracuse and shock Clemson. We have done that before.
I agree with this. Lane will be a madhouse for Clemson... although it was when I was there last time vs. Clemson and they thoroughly beat the shit out of us.
I still remember going to the first modern era game against Clemson at Lane. ESPN was talking about how Thunder and Lightning were going to rain all over us. The talking heads went from them winning, to winning by ten, to winning by 20. Tech's defense held them to a combined 71 yards back in 2006. The next year we went to Clemson and took them behind the woodshed.
We had better players than Clemson then. Then they hired a WR coach and were mocked until that guy loaded the team with 4 and 5 star players. That's why we can't beat them anymore
Clemson is a big test. The Bowen offensive line has not yet held its own against an 'upper echelon' defensive front (see losses to Louisville, FSU last year). I want to see how we do there.
I have no idea what to think of Syracuse this year. They have a bad loss to Stanford and a very, very, ugly win against an NC State team that looks like straight doodoo. Their other wins are over... one good/fun G5 team in OT, and a bunch of middling ACC teams?
I know, I know, the dome. But we said the same thing about Heinz field until we won there. No reason we can't win in the dome.
I'm very curious about Clemson's rushing stats. It reads like they are not a good running defense. But is that because they are playing with such big leads that they are willing to give up successful runs to prevent big pass plays? It would be interesting to see how their run defense fairs across 4 quarters.
Funny thing... SP+ actual has their Defense ranked at 27 overall and their Offense ranked 9th overall. FEI has their defense at 21st. FPI (really likes Clemson) has them ranked 15th.
I haven't watched Clemson much this year, but it seems like their defense - while still 'good' - is not what it has been for the previous decade.
Apparently, VT doesn't need to bring their offense to the Syracuse game if the Pitt game is any indication.
Looking at all the detail, Syracuse has played the teams that are better at running the ball, but they've held them to almost 15% less than what those opponents usually get. (177.3 ypg vs 151.2 ypg)
Clemson, on the other hand, has faced the teams that struggle to run the ball regardless, but they are giving up 3.5% more yardage than those other teams usually gain. (125.6 ypg vs 130 ypg)
Duke's opponents, who haven't been particularly good at running the ball, gain 27% more yardage on the ground when facing the Blue Devils. (137 ypg vs 173.7 ypg)
Interestingly enough, passing is the exact opposite. Where Tech only struggled to run the ball against Vanderbilt, the Commodores were the only team the Hokies really threw on, gaining 63% more yardage than expected. Every other team have held the Hokies below their rest of the year data.
Among our upcoming opponents, Syracuse has had opponents come in throwing the poorest (196.5 ypg) but they wind up giving up 236.2 yards to those opponents, almost a 20% increase in output.
As bad as Duke is at getting blown off the ball in the trenches, they shut down passing games, holding opponents 32% below their expected output. UVA has faced the more prolific passing teams (256 ypg), and has given up the most yardage (299.7 ypg) to those teams.
In total yardage, Syracuse and UVA give up slightly more yardage than their opponents are used to getting (4% and 2.2% most disrespectfully to those teams). Georgia Tech and Duke have had the better defensive outputs, holding opponents to 13.6% and 10.3% below average