It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas! Err.... fall or something. Football is here, and the Hokies' annual favorite matchup is this weekend. No I'm not talking about that community college up north, because I consider that Blacksburg winter.... I'm talking about the ECU Pirates...

yeah this is who we're playing...
Sarcasm aside, I hate these guys, and I, like you guys, hate that we're playing them for the next 50 bazillion years. Not because their fans are obnoxious like UVA fans, or that they play a chop-block-o'clock offense, or even because they love to overhype themselves. No I hate playing this team because they're legitimately dangerous. Not only are they "little guys" from another conference (they're pretty good) we also play them every year which certainly gives it the feel of a rivalry game and there's a reason rivalry games are close. The teams typically know each other pretty well, and not only play harder in the game, they also seem to know more about your team than the typical opponent. Throw in the fact that this is a game that we "should" blow them out in and you've got a good ole recipe for an upset. Year in and year out this game is close and for good reason, they ain't too shabby and that doesn't help our national perception. Yet here we go, round 8 (maybe 10? I dunno) of playing ECU in a row. Coupled with the fact that we just played an emotionally draining game in OSU which WE WON!

not sure if you heard... but we won
Gives this game practically the definition of a trap game. Unfortunately mother nature is not cooperating this weekend either, as Fall weather has finally reared its ugly head around.
It's been raining for what seems like forever in Blacksburg but it will stop for the middle of the week. That's bad news however, as the high pressure system that's going to arrive and hover over Blacksburg Thurs-Fri is going to see its way out of the region just in time for the football game. Look for scattered showers to roll around before kickoff and expect it to become more consistent as kickoff approaches and throughout the game. Bring your ponchos y'all! As far as temperatures go, it should be kinda chilly with a high of 72 degrees, again I would bundle up and remember your poncho so that it doesn't soak through to the pants/shirt. Luckily, we don't have to worry about the low as temperatures shouldn't dip down until much after the game ends, but for those of you looking to conquer Hokie House and other bars, expect temperatures to dip down to around 62 degrees as the system pushes itself out. I wouldn't expect too much in the wind department as it's nothing particularly significant weather wise. (super cells and what not)
How it all plays out on the field:
For all the weeks to expect some rain, this could actually work out in our favor. Typically weather is a good equalizer on the field and can lead to more close games especially with our passing game clicking. In this case however, inclement weather can only hurt ECU as they rely so heavily on that passing game. I still expect them to move the chains occasionally, but expect lots of slipping and a good bit of drops with a wet ball. This game is gonna be rainy, and it's gonna be gritty and sloppy which I think plays into our advantage.

seem familiar?
I really hope we don't play that hyper aggressive man coverage that we played against Ohio State, because I do think double moves on the outside could cause some slippage on both sides, but I do see the running games deciding the game this week. I believe our beloved Hokies have the better rushing game, and I foresee a close first half that we begin to pull away from as our running game eventually begins to wear them down in Lane Stadium. The fans and home field advantage will also hopefully be very advantageous for our team as hopefully that energy from the fan base carries over and prevents them from getting complacent against the less favored pirates.
As I'm reading through this report I'm immediately reminded of the Marshall game last year, and only hope that this game isn't nearly as breath taking and nerve wracking. Our team really handed it to Ohio State and I can only hope that this trend continues against our foes down South. I think mother nature will only help us and I really think that our guys won't overlook ECU, especially after the struggles of the last two years. That being said I'm still very confident about the game this week, just a tad nervous. Last week was the biggest win by tech since I've been a fan and I'm thrilled to see how they follow that up!

this game nearly killed me last year
Final predictions
VT -27
ECU - 10
High - 72
Low -62
wind - 5 mph gusts
Rain - probably (I'd say 80-90% At this point) At the very least it's gonna be cloudy!
GO HOKIES!!!


Comments
I'm just going to pray it doesn't rain. I'd better put on the rain boots and bring the ponchos in case :(
I do have some good news, they just readjusted the models, showers are looking more like scattered showers rather than a consistent thing. However I still expect some showers Saturday afternoon, just more so Friday night
And a lot of the bigger stuff is heading south of us into NC
Hey eshiben, love these. How would you feel about posting some radar images and/or a little hourly forecast for the timeframe of the game nearer to the weekend, like updating the post on a friday or something?
can do! One of my classes actually grades us on our forecasts and this weeks was Blacksburg.... so I'm like getting graded on this! I'm pretty excited
Very cool!
Wish Meteorology was around when I was evaluating majors at Virginia Tech.
You should definitely show your teacher this. And then drop the class if said teacher doesn't appreciate Hokie football.
Ironically we picked blacksburg because of the game. He said be prepared to follow the hokie football team especially if we keep winning. So yay combining homework and thekeyplay!
Slightly off-topic, but the leaves and needles are starting to fall for what feels like really early here. What do the long-term projections have for this winter? Are we in for a really long one?
That being said, I don't mind seeing all this maroon and orange.
Won't hear about any long-term forecasts for another week or two. If you heard or saw the post going around about a doomsday winter its kinda false. Could it happen? Maybe but climate related patterns are really tough to point out this far ahead. I'm no climatologist but Dr Ellis is a buff on this stuff and I'd be more than happy to pick his brain if you're curious
I love the clip of D-Hop picking up that ball and running for the TD! I remember screaming at the TV for him to make it. In looking back at the clip, he takes a pretty hard fall on that play. That's a lot of weight coming crashing down! Hes lucky he didn't get hurt......
Hopefully this year we see a Fat Boy Touchdown!
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/9/7/4706170/ultimate-fat-g...
I yelled "fat boy touchdown!" when I saw the gif. so you can imagine how I was actually watching the game. I hope the wet conditions help shai and marshawn put up over 200 yds. then I look at the marshall game and hold my breath a bit
This early in the season with a noon kickoff I will take high of 72 and rainy over 90, sweating my ass off and looking like a lobster afterwards any day of the week.
Looks like the chance of rain has gone up since yesterday :(
Could just be me, but I love a good rain game. "Good" means the Hokies win. My favorite game in my time at school was the Miami beatdown in the rain.
VT+Miami+Rain=VT win
Come to think of it, we've had several beatdowns of Miami in rainy weather. 1995, 2009 and last year
Its all the moisture from the gulf coupled with the incredibly humid temperatures. Miami is really prone to being doused in rain, you usually see storms build up more as the night comes around and gives day time heating plenty of time to warm up the ground.
Once the ground gets warmed up the energy is transferred into the air creating potential energy (this is called instability or CAPE in MET lingo) that typically turns into storms as air from the gulf/oceans blows on shore.
It actually surprises me that we don't have more rainy games at miami
I'd rather watch the game dry like most people, but I guess one positive is that rain and pass heavy offenses aren't the best combination.
Also, I haven't cleaned my hat since the Marshall game.
Well done eshibby, well done
crappy weather grpahics will be out shortly, they're gonna be a little rushed but youll get the picture hopefully
youll have to pardon my poor comments and the lack of mesh with the color, but i tried to explain some basic principals of whats going on with the NWS forecast map.
Basically, the low pressure system coming through coupled with the lift that the cold front produced provided us both atlantic moisture and a lifting mechanism to give us a rainy couple of days here. Do to some slow moving upper level winds, the front is moving very slowly which is why you see the forecast for rain so long and drawn out. all of this will provide a rainy couple of days.
If you want to try to decipher it the NWS (national weather service) does a weekly forecast discussion
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AF...
if you have any questions about it or the forecast feel free to ask!
OH PS temperatures are lower and colder because...well its a cold front...cold air COLD
PPS bring yo ponchos folks!
Bought new ponchos for the family based on your recommendation.
Love it, eshiben, science away!
Yup, this is how grad school goes.
Sorry to spoil the fun, but it doesn't stop when you get to the working world.
If you guys want me to do a breakdown of upper level winds and stuff like that next week I'd be more than willing!
PS women's soccer team won 4-0 today! They still look the part of a top 5 team out shooting the buffalos 22-2 I believe and with a 10-1 corner advantage
So... like if it'll be breezy if you have seats in the nosebleeds? (I kid, I kid)
Zing
Still waiting for conference play, but it seems Chugger has solved the "replace Jazzy" conundrum by just having everyone score more goals.
I really want a fat man touchdown this year! That Hopkins highlight is fantastic because he's running so hard but he's just too damn round to find the end zone and stick it in. Pun intended.
Screwed up the forecast and the game....I feel partially responsible....stay safe hokies :(
No worries bro. While getting a sunburn today I was like WTF!? It was just the pirates day I guess.