By the (Advanced) Numbers: Virginia

Some things that have happened since Virginia last beat Virginia Tech in football:

• I met my future wife. We dated for three years before getting married. Three years after getting married, we had our first child. He starts kindergarten next year.
• Saddam Hussein was captured.
• Facebook was created.
• The iPhone was introduced (at that point VT was already on a 3-game winning streak).
• Al Groh was named ACC Coach of the Year.
• Mike London (!) was named ACC Coach of the Year.
• Virginia Tech outscored Virginia 293-99 including two shutouts. Only once during that time has Virginia scored more than 14 points.

As every Hokie knows, that streak is very much in jeopardy Friday, as it has been the last couple of seasons. It will not last forever, and although every Hokie knows that, it still won't be fun when it happens. The numbers aren't sure whether the streak will become 11 or 1 on Friday night.

To begin, the computer rankings for each team:

Computers give a very slight edge to Virginia Tech but for practical purposes this is a very even matchup.

The predictions flip the tables and give Virginia a slight advantage:

The spread has bounced everywhere since it opened, so it may not be exactly 0 now but aside from gambling purposes, movement of a point or two is pretty meaningless. The odds of a 0-point favorite winning are 50.0%. (What other web site gives you such in-depth knowledge?)

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

For some reason this part is rewritten every week even though the outcome is often the same: VT is at a small disadvantage on offense and a moderate advantage on defense.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

Remarkably things look better for VT in the passing game and not the running game. Although, the absence of starting RB's affects the stats so it remains to be seen whether the return of Edmunds gives a boost to the running game.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Cavalier defense:

Even methodical drives, that old faithful friend, seems to be abandoning the Hokies. The offense is awful.

The No. 99 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. North Texas, whose QB just passed 1,000 yards passing on the season
2. Kansas, who is Kansas
3. Florida International, with just over a 50% completion rate

The No. 6 (!) Virginia defense is closest in personality to:

1. Georgia, who shutout SEC East leading Missouri
2. Minnesota, that team that just beat Nebraska
3. Oklahoma, a team that gives up 3 yards/rush

Welp.

When Wake Forest Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

As is typically the case it's hard to see successful situations for the opposing offense, and yet they always seem to score. Well, almost always...

As for personality traits:

Is it possible that the Hokies might finish back-to-back games tied 0-0?

The No. 2 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. TCU, holding opposing passers under 50% completion
2. LSU, also holding passers under 50% completion
3. Temple, former employer of Scot Loeffler

The No. 55 Virginia offense is closest in personality to:

1. Ohio, with a passer rating of 114
2. Central Florida, which gains 3.11 YPC
3. UNLV, a team that has been sacked 38 times this season

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokie's kicking units:

Essentially the field goal "disadvantage" means Virginia Tech is below average at field goals.

When the Hoos kick:

Virginia is not below average at field goals but then again neither was Wake Forest.

Who To Watch Out For

The Wahoos have plenty of "meh" with some NFL talent thrown in:

1. QB Greyson Lambert's QB rating of 117.06 is a point behind in-state rival Michael Brewer of Virginia Tech.
2. Freshman DB Quin Blanding leads the team in tackles but isn't very strong - he has needed assistance on more tackles (55) than he has made solo (54). The same goes for the next two leading tacklers DB Anthony Harris and Daquan Romero. Hit the weights!
3. Kicker Ian Frye took all of the momentum away from Virginia when he missed an extra point after the Hoos took a 13-7 lead against No. 1 Florida State. After completely deflating the spirits of the team, Virginia would be outscored 27-7.

Statistical Key to the Game

Line play is crucial in this game - Virginia Tech's d-line is No. 1 in the country at adjusted sack rate, while UVA's o-line is 7th at preventing sacks. Despite optimism from the return of Edmunds to the running game, the Hokie o-line is 100th nationally in line yards (rushing yardage attributed to the line) and the Cavalier d-line is 7th at preventing line yards, meaning Tech RB's will be getting taken down behind the line.

I'm looking at who gets more tackles for loss as the barometer for the game, and hoping VT can win the battle and snuff out more Virginia drives than the other way around.

My Prediction

Virginia has a good secondary, so it's very likely Brewer throws at least one interception and significantly raises our chances of winning. Brewer and Loeffler are (hopefully) playing to keep a job, but it remains to be seen whether that means becoming more aggressive or over-thinking the game and just making things worse. I think Brewer does the former but Loeffler does the latter.

My gut tells me the streak ends this year. But the heart wants what it wants.

Virginia Tech 20, Virginia 17

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.