As a TKP reader, and therefore Virginia Tech Hokies fanatic, EVERY play of every game has you captivated and your emotional state hangs on every pass, every tackle, every penalty, every little detail of every game. But of course not all plays are as big as others and as your memory of the mundane fades you're left with last memories of the truly game-changing plays of every season. Here we use analytics to count down the biggest, most game-changing plays in the past 10 years of Virginia Tech football...
In each installment of this series I'll bring you two plays: one play devastating to the Hokies' chance to win, and one dominating play in Virginia Tech's favor. They will count down in order of how much each play affected the odds of Tech's victory.
For details on the method, see Virginia Tech's Top 10 Plays of the Last Ten Years: No. 10.
The Countdown
Most Devastating:
10. Boise State 9/6/2010 - Kellen Moore pass complete to Austin Pettis for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. Miami 11/4/2006 - Tyrone Moss rush for 50 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
8. Boston College 11/2/2013 - Logan Thomas pass intercepted by Kevin Pierre-Louis at the VTech 33, returned for 33 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
7. Lamar Miller rush over right guard for 30 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
6. Boston College 10/25/2007 - Matt Ryan pass complete to Andre Callender for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
Most Dominating:
10. Boston College 12/1/2007 - Sean Glennon pass complete to Eddie Royal for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. North Carolina 10/29/2009 - T.J. Yates pass intercepted by Rashad Carmichael at the North Carolina 10, returned for 5 yards to the North Carolina 5
8. Georgia Tech 9/3/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Demitri Knowles for 42 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
7. Rutgers 12/29/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Corey Fuller for 21 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
6. Marshall 9/21/2013 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Willie Byrn for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
The 5th-most Devastating Play: Georgia Tech 9/20/2014 - Paul Davis 41 Yd Interception Return for a TOUCHDOWN
In 2014 Bud Foster once again proved capable of preparing and executing a gameplan that would at least slow the dynamic Georgia Tech offense. Early in the fourth quarter, the Hokies led the Yellow Jackets 16-10 and had the ball; a field goal would make it a two-score game that the run-reliant bees would have a difficult time winning with so little time left. On second-and-one from the Georgia Tech 44-yard line, that field goal seemed to be not too far out of reach. But back-to-back penalties by the Hokie offense suddenly made that situation more difficult, and Virginia Tech soon faced 2nd-and-21 from their own 36, desperately needing to keep the drive alive.
Michael Brewer dropped back, and then... was it a busted screen, or just an errant throw? Either way, P.J. Davis picked off the lofted pass just past the line of scrimmage and made a house call. Georgia Tech takes a one-point lead with 11 minutes to go in the game.
The scoring wouldn't end there as Georgia Tech would ultimately tie the game at 24 with two minutes to go, recover the ball, and kick a game-winning field goal as time expired.
The 5th-most Dominating Play: East Carolina 8/30/2008 - Patrick Pinkney rush, fumbled, recovered by VTech Stephan Virgil at the ECaro 28, Stephan Virgil for 28 yards, to the ECaro 0 for a TOUCHDOWN
Honorary Virginia Tech rival and ACC want-to-be East Carolina has certainly delivered many plays most of us would rather forget, but the 2008 contest at least included one dominating play. Neither team had been able to put points on the board in the first quarter, and Hokie fans were understandably anxious to get a lead and some confidence to quell the mindset an upset was in the works. Unfortunately, on their first drive in the second quarter, the offense went backwards a yard and was forced to punt from their own 19-yard line; the Pirates would take over on their own 32-yard line.
On the first play from scrimmage, Stephan Virgil's instincts would quickly cede control of the game in Virginia Tech's hands. ECU quarterback Patrick Pinkney dropped back and threw a WR screen that tips off the fingers of his target. Stephan didn't assume it was incomplete or quit on the play, and shed his block to scoop up the ball and return it to the end zone. His instincts and awareness paid off: the pass had in fact gone backwards and was a live ball, ruled a fumble.
The Hokies held the lead until late in the game, but ultimately lost to the Pirates 22-27 after ECU scooped and scored a blocked punt with less than 2 minutes remaining in the game.
Comments
boy this was an ugly line-up...not a great way to start the week. Gee, thanks Joel! :p
seriously though, I'm going to be sad when this series is over. I've enjoyed it (mostly) thus far.
Edit: and speaking of ugly, that first photo..yeesh! PJ really has a face for radio doesn't he?
Dammit, bringing up bad memories from bad games. I see this gigantor drop in that ECU game and I know it's coming and I don't want to talk about it.
Wow, this week....this week just hurt. I'm going back to bed.
Based on the graphs, we could see both of these games on the list again. Guess there are reasons these are two of my least favorite teams we play
we got out beamerballed. this makes me sad
I think I called that ECU blocked punt making an appearance, looks like I may be right. I'm pleasantly surprised to see a play from the first half of a game though.
I keep rewatching that Brewer throw hoping he'll just get rid of it out of bounds or just take the sack.
My reaction to this week's column:
So I wrote up each list independently and then would piece them together week-by-week, which has two interesting implications:
1. They were written at the beginning, so I can't remember which plays come when and each week is at least a little bit of a surprise (although I think I remember the top 4 exactly).
2. I never thought through which devastating plays would be paired with which dominating plays.
This week is just a brutal kick in the groin. Even I wish I han't read it. I'm all kinds of sad. All I can offer is this GIF of Jean Claude Van Damme from Breakin' to try to cheer everyone up:
You should have considered a trigger warning on this one.
Seeing a post of Jabba the coach before breakfast is just wrong and then those graphs
Leg for coining the term "Jabba the Coach".
can someone please put together a photoshop of that face on a hutt body?
The Fett Man always delivers
in other news, The Fett Man just got a job offer from the LOLUVa athletics PR department.
This is what today's installment has done to me emotionally this morning:
Next week will make up for it, I promise...
You knocked the shit out of an overrated receiver?
Isn't that Justin Thomas getting crushed?
Maybe I've gotten my games mixed up...I can't tell who that is getting crushed. But it doesn't matter as long as it's a Jacket.
Not a Jacket. That's from the 2013 Pitt game. I think that was Tyler Boyd.
Edit: I was WRONG! Boyd sounded like the right answer, he was their big target the next year and all. But I didn't do the research, I didn't follow up, and now the shame...
Pretty sure it is Devin Street.
I stand corrected:
You sir, are the actual winner...
Thanks. No wonder I was having a hard time, I had in my head the wrong team. What a hit.
Right you are. Leg.
All of the most recent Pitt games (and the playmakers who have hurt us) roll together for me, like one unending nightmare. Even though we won that particular game, it was much more of a nail-biter than it should have been.
Did Kyle think dude had caught the ball? Hard to tell with his reaction. That was a hell of a hit tho
Dude did catch the ball. It was ruled a catch and that he was down before the "ground" knocked the ball out.
that call made me so angry...but then when I took my O&M glasses off and watched the replay I realized that they made the right call...
Not going to lie I don't understand this article, not trying to be negative but seeing bad plays by us never a good way to start the week. Here is to watching VT Power Hour again and VTPhreak's highlights... oh well
I remember you saying there would be a Top10 most devastating and most dominating from the same game and I thought for sure it would have been one of the Miami games. It has to be this ECU game, that damned blocked punt. The only good thing that came from that game was basically solidifying Tyrod as the starter. Glennon's leash shrunk in half after that game.
I feel like the JMU fumble is on the list. Which is weird because that game never happened.
We played JMU?
Just. Brutal...
I think plays from games we lost should be disqualified from the "most dominating". Talk about a kick in the groin when both games on this countdown are losses.
less entertained. More like this:
Joel, you're doing a damn good job with these. But today left the entire community all
Followed by
We will all however keep reading cuz like I said, these are fantastic.
for realz. But, to be fair, if we wanted him to massage the numbers so we only saw the good, this would be a tarheels news site.
But...but..tarheels can't read...
Brings up a good topic for conversation. What would this list look like if the most dominating plays had the restriction that it had to be a game we ultimately won, and the most devastating plays had to be a game we actually lost?
There's no wrong way to do this list, and I love that Joel thought outside the box by looking at win probability as opposed to basing it purely on feels. One thing I'm gleaning from this series, though, is there are a LOT of games we lost where at some point in the game we had a 90%+ chance of winning.
I'll try to remember to post a list with that restriction once the series is done (it would give away future ones to post now).
To be fair, over the past 10 years VT has had way more games where they were at a 90+% chance of winning than the other way around so way more opportunities to get devastated that way than to dominate.
So what you're saying is that we've dominated too much to really dominate on a consistent basis?
After seeing this post:
I'm starting to see a trend with Virginia Tech above the 80% win probability for the majority of most of these games then ending with a final losing score. Finally some statistics to support the madness that is the "Heartbreak Hokies". The ECU game (also my first game as a Hokie) was especially tough to swallow when you consider a 95% probability to win dropping to around 15% in the last minute or so...
Am I the only one confused by what the MV's were wearing at the ECU game? Is that a white shirt with a maroon tank top with maroon pants, or is that maroon bibs, or is that a one piece outfit?? What is that?
That's them with their jackets off. So you're looking at the uniform bibs and t shirts. My wife was in MVs during that time and I remember talking to her on the phone after the game and she talked about how hot it was that day.
I can vouch for that. I was an MV at that game and we got the call within a few minutes of being there to take off jackets. They don't make that call very often as this was one of the hottest games in recent memory.
That makes sense, my roommate was in the MV's and now that I think about it, it does look familiar. I just had never seen them at a game, and from a distance they looked really odd. Although they kind of matched our road uniforms that year. Sorry, I hated those road unis, the home version wasn't bad and the orange version was IMHO one of the best oranges that we've worn, but the road version had to go.
Joel I love your work, but I couldn't get past the first picture of the Great Chin-Balls himself. I am sure it's a great article full of statistical wonder.
Damn both of these sucked ass
Fuck Matt Ryan
Never fails
Joel you're a master and champ. However, I'm inclined to concur with my fellow tkp brethren and sistren
Please stop the flying monkeys! We should never lose to ECU!
cpj's face makes me angry.
The resemblance is uncanny.