Halfwits and Wagers: East Carolina

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Pierson and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

Ah yes, Virginia Tech's home-and-home series with East Carolina, the real tradition unlike any other. The Hokies and Pirates started these contests in the early 1860s as a reprieve from the Civil War, and it's stood the test of time against all odds (side note: please don't fact check that).

This ECU squad is hardly the team that came to Blacksburg and upset the Hokies a year ago, after losing key players on both sides of the ball. Their results so far this season have shown just that, as they've dropped back-to-back games against Florida and Navy. I doubt that the Pirates of last year would have ever lost a game against a team with a clunky, out-of-date offense. And they probably would've beaten Navy too.

This'll be as big a test as ever for the Pirates, and a big one for Tech as well. ECU represents the strongest defense that Brenden Motley has started against this year, as well as an offense that torched DBU in 2014.

Who will win? Who knows, let's just get to this week's lines:

Over/Under 475 yards of total offense for the Hokies

Brian: Under. I'm not going to buy into this whole "moving the ball with consistency" thing until I see it a few more times. They looked pretty awesome in between the 20s against Purdue last week, which seemed to pick up momentum from a very solid second half against Furman. But as of right now, I have 10 years of history on my side telling me to bet the under. If they scorch ECU, though? We may have a different conversation next week.

Pierson: Under. Since these two teams starting playing each other annually like Coastal Division rivals only one game has been high scoring — a 2010 49-27 Hokies victory. In that game, Tech had a balanced attack but still only managed 448 yards of total offense. The offense has been impressive through Motley's first two starts, but ECU is a little more familiar with the Hokies and now has two games of tape on Brenden. I'll temper expectations this week, but — to steal a phrase from my colleague, Brian — a strong performance can kick the Motley Hype Train into overdrive.

Over/Under 23.5 passes attempted by Brenden Motley

Brian: Probably over, just because the running game looks good and Loeffler can't help himself. Great offenses thrive on balance, and I know that the run game has already opened up more deep passes than it seemed to all of last year. But at what point will Loeffler try to get too cute, call too many passes and keep a game closer than it should be? This may be the week Motley throws it 35 times and makes us all remember why he started the year second on the depth chart.

Pierson: Over. In three games, three different Tech quarterbacks have combined to attempt 25, 31 and 26 passes. In those same three games, the Hokies have 44, 41 and 56 rushing attempts. A number of those rushing attempts were designed pass plays that Motley pulled down (and don't forget both games were blow-outs late), so Lefty's play calling is slightly more balanced than at first glance. If we approach this from a numbers standpoint, the limited sample size dictates a clear "over." If recent history is an indicator, this game will likely be a little bit more of the grind-it-out type, so look for Lefty to ride whatever moves the chains.

Over/Under 1.5 completions of over 25 yards by ECU quarterback Blake Kemp

Brian: Over. Remember last year, when Shane Carden would blindly throw jump balls 30-yards downfield, just to see what happened? And remember when often times those plays would result in either a completion or a pass interference penalty? Well I expect the Pirates to test this plan out again, and while it probably won't have as much success as it did last year (a few certain cornerbacks' jerseys are still on fire), it could still hit two or three times.

Pierson: Over. ECU quarterback Blake Kemp has completed four passes for 25-plus yards through three games, two of which were touchdown strikes against the talented, but Hargreaves-less, Florida secondary. Against Florida, first year OC Dave Nichol used short and intermediate routes to keep Kemp upright and attack the Gators secondary in space, and selectively peppered in deep posts and fades to catch them napping. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar approach against Coach Gray's unit, but one would hope the Hokies are prepared for that approach after last year's jump ball fest.

Rank 'Em: Most-to-least carries between J.C., Trey, Travon, Shai, Sam, Motley, Dwayne and Durk

Brian: (/spins Wheel of Shane) Aw dammit, I got 35 carries for Sam Rogers?

(/spins wheel again): There you go, 10 carries for everyone. Like a father fairly splitting one piece of cake between his ten of children, everyone leaves underfilled and secretly disappointed.

Pierson: "It's time for evvvvvvverybody's favvvvvvvvorite game! Read! Shane's! Mind!" Last week's game was stupidly balanced to the point where Shai finished with one or two less carries than J.C., Trey and Travon and NO ONE NOTICED. I'll go with...Motley, Travon, Trey, J.C., Shai, Dwayne, Sam, and Durk.

True/False: Virginia Tech will score another non-offensive touchdown

Brian: False, if only because it seems like these things come in bunches, and Tech's had three in two games. Would it be awesome to see it again? Of course, the team hasn't had a potential for dynamism in all three phases of the game since 2010, but I still need to see it more before I can consider it a trend moving forward.

Pierson: False, if only because logic dictates that it's really hard to do in three consecutive weeks. With that being said, don't you get the feeling that the returners are on the verge of taking one to the house weekly?

Over/Under 27.5 times the announcers mention the Pirates' loss of former QB Shane Carden and/or nose tackle Terry Williams/em>

Brian: Over, and that's only on offense. It'll be mentioned every other drive, on top of every time they use a photo or video of Carden from ECU's win last year. Hopefully by the tenth time they only use it to explain why they put this game at 3:30. "Look guys, we're sorry! We just thought it would be closer!"

Pierson: Under. If the Hokies torment Blake Kemp and/or gash the ECU front-four, then the fourth quarter of this game could turn into a Carden and Williams gush fest. All we would need is Chris Connelly narrating for peak emotional effect.

Over/Under 5.5 shots of fans saying "Arrrgghh," while hooking their finger, aka doing the saddest pirate impersonation since Steve from Dodgeball.

Brian: I'm taking the over, but only because they'll have at least three shots of hammered students just trying their hardest (and failing) to use their hands and talk.

Pierson: Under. What frustrates me about playing in Greenville is the inevitable discussion of how hostile the environment is in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. This is probably only my opinion (and almost surely an unfair one), but if their nickname was, say, the Falcons, would fans be going nuts and making cawing sounds (or whatever the term is for falcon calls)?! The drunk college students almost surely would, but you get my point. Anyone can get rowdy when fandom dictates dressing like a pirate, but let's see you bring that same intensity when your nickname is an amalgam of a pep-chant and a turkey. That's right, go sit at the end of the bench.

Over/Under 1.5 times a Tech player openly mocks the finger hook or any other ECU-related celebration

Brian: Over. In a related note, I think Bucky Hodges makes at least two big plays this week.

Pierson: Over. Dadi strikes first. Book it.

Matchup Over/Under: 56.5 Points

Brian: Under, based on two things. One, I don't think Tech will score on defense or special teams. Two, I don't expect the Pirates to thrown a ton of points on the board, meaning that the Hokies would have to put up close to fifty again to hit this. While I like them for a nice 28-31 point outing, this will still bring all of us back to earth and realize that maybe Purdue was much worse that we thought going in.

Pierson: Over. Based on the last two games with Motley at the helm, you have to pick the over. Right? Right? These two teams have historically played tight, low scoring games, but every few years there is an scoring explosion. While I think this year's ECU offense is considerably less potent than in years past under Shane Carden and former OC Lincoln Riley, I think this offense has too many weapons to be held down. Gosh I hope I'm right...

Spread: Virginia Tech (-7)

Brian: I picked the Fighting Motleys to cover last week, and they haven't given me any reason not to do so again this time around. The Pirates aren't quite what they were last year (though I expect they may play their best game of the season on Saturday), and Tech should be able to expose enough on both sides for a comfortable two touchdown win. I don't think it'll be as flashy as the game in West Lafayette but I expect them to do the job and roll into conference play off a few nice wins in a row.

Pierson: As I noted above, I don't think this ECU team is at the same level as last year's Pirates team and this line reflects both that and the Hokies' recent success. There are two things that make me nervous about this game: (1) It's in Greenville, and (2) ECU Happens. Conventional Hokie wisdom states this team could sputter on the back-end of consecutive road games, but I'm going to allow these last two games to pollute my mind like the unabashed homer I am and pick the Hokies to cover.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.