The result of the Techmo Bowl was bittersweet for me. Without question, the win was huge for Virginia Tech and its bowl odds (more on that below). However, after learning of Frank's retirement I wanted the Hokies to play an inspired game; left to believe they might be really dominant down the stretch. Instead, it was a game that could have been lost and the offense especially left me no more confident than before kickoff.
Now Tech returns to Blacksburg for Frank Beamer's last game coaching in Lane Stadium. The Hokies must face 9-1 North Carolina, one of the hottest teams in the country. I expect the atmosphere to be perhaps the most electric I've ever experienced. Casinos have set the opening spread at an unexpectedly narrow 6.5-point UNC victory — are they taking into account the emotions and fan intensity at the game, or do objective computers also agree that this game isn't as lopsided as it looks on paper?
Where the Season Stands
Virginia Tech is currently 5-5. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:
The odds of each possible regular season win total are now...wait for it...:
Needless to say, the team's bowl odds took a bit of a jump after the win against Georgia Tech:
The question has been raised as to whether a 5-7 Virginia Tech team might make a bowl, which of course assumes that any 5-7 teams are allowed to go to a bowl. There is no clear answer at the moment, as the NCAA rule regarding selection of 5-7 teams is not written clearly enough for bowls to understand. The NCAA is expected to clarify the issue this week. If APR is ultimately used, then the team has a reasonable chance. Among potential 5-7 teams Virginia Tech's APR rates fairly well, but not at the top. If APR is not used, then this becomes very subjective. There would be obvious appeal for a bowl to take the Hokies and host Frank Beamer's last game, but another 5-7 team like Nebraska may also be a huge draw for tickets sales. The best scenario is for Tech to win its sixth game and not have to worry about it.
Rankings and Computer Predictions
The computer rankings and predictions for each team:
North Carolina is clearly rated as the better team, bordering on top 10. The odds of a 6.5-point underdog winning are 31.4%.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
Clearly the Tar Heels bring a very good offense to Blacksburg, but despite the compliments Larry Fedora may give to DC Gene Chizik they remain a mediocre defense. When each offense is compared to the opposing defense, it becomes clearer how the Hokies find themselves only a 6.5-point underdog to a 9-1 team. Even considering North Carolina destroyed its last two opponents (66-31 over Duke, 59-21 over Miami) who beat the Hokies.
When Virginia Tech Has the Ball
Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.
Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?
The Loeffler offense is just so average. Fortunately, it appears the Tar Heels can't stop the run. In fact, they are one of the worst defenses in the entire country at defending the run, so Beamer's intuition to feed McMillian 30 times should produce some offensive movement, kill clock and limit possessions: Tech doesn't want to get into a shootout with UNC.
Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:
The Hokie o-line continues to make running room, while simultaneously exposing the quarterback to far too many sacks. Unfortunately the Heels' defensive line matches the VT strengths, except for power success rate; in third- or -fourth-and short, look for Tech to get the yards they need to convert.
Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Tar Heel defense:
North Carolina is at least Virginia Tech's equal in these measures, and has a clear advantage in explosive drives. Fortunately scoring fast is likely not part of the Hokie game plan.
The FEI No. 91 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:
- Louisiana-Lafayette
- Army
- Oregon State
The FEI No. 58 North Carolina defense is closest in personality to:
- UCLA
- Ole Miss
- Toledo
When North Carolina Has the Ball
Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:
While Marquise Williams is a big quarterback who is a threat to run, the UNC offense stands out more in the passing game and is likely to test the Hokies' inexperienced secondary. There is no single receiver that can simply be shut down by Brandon Facyson; multiple receivers are a threat.
Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:
At least some of the success of the Tar Heels' passing game starts with the offensive line, a very good until in all aspects except for power success. Fortunately for the Hokies, that is a strength of their defense, and converting on third- or fourth-and-short may be difficult for UNC.
As for personality traits:
The Tar Heels are good in all phases except for methodical drives, which naturally happens to teams that are explosive (it is difficult to have 10+ plays on many drives when a high percentage of drives average 10+ yards per play).
The FEI No. 65 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:
- Temple
- Notre Dame
- Appalachian State
The FEI No. 10 North Carolina offense is closest in personality to:
- Western Kentucky
- Notre Dame
- Baylor
Special Teams
First we look at the Hokies' kicking units:
Although the unit has slipped from No. 1 since last week, only in the kickoff phase is Virginia Tech an average team.
When the Tar Heels kick:
This is also an excellent special teams unit, except in punting.
Who To Watch Out For
Every offensive skill position player?:
- RB Elijah Hood is certainly deserving of attention, but when QB Marquise Williams runs he is even better. Williams averages 8.4 YPC. Not that he needs to run: he's completing 66% of passes for 9 YPA.
- Let's just go with all four WRs: diminutive Ryan Switzer is catching 71% of targets for 10.6 YPT; the three big men are Quinshad Davis (71%/11), Bug Howard (54%/9.9), and Mack Hollins (65%/17.2)
- CB tandem Des Lawrence and M.J. Stewart have combined for 4 INTs and 24 PBUs on the season
Statistical Key to the Game
I normally hate third down percentage as a statistic, because it is really more of a measure of total offensive movement than anything special about third down (teams with a high conversion percentage have it because they have a low YTG average). But in the case of this game, the stark differences in power success rate between the lines lead me to believe that could be the game changer; whichever team is able to convert on third-and-short more often (assuming UNC has to face third-and-short) has a great shot.
Statistical Prediction
The statistics predict Virginia Tech will finish with 163 yards passing and 199 yards rushing, and North Carolina will finish with 180 yards passing and 208 yards rushing. That's a narrow margin where field position or turnover luck can easily decide the game — I'm looking for UNC to be overly confident and tip those scales in VT's favor.
Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 27
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
62-0
"Welcome to the Terror Dome, Baby!"
In spite of their current streak, I like our chances. All the intangibles add up; Saturday will be epic. Go Hokies!
UNC just unveiled their "Stormtrooper" unis for this game. I suddenly feel better about their passing yardage. I mean, have you ever seen a Stormtrooper's aim?
I found video of the VT D line chasing Williams.
They wear white? We wear black:
This cannot be real... The couldn't have used the old "Goodguyswearwhite" and this was their next best option.
You're right, they should have gone with the good guy in star wars who actually wore white:
Does this mean that their cheerleaders will be wearing slave Leia outfits?
This is not a bad idea.
So is Dadi the Xwing in the background getting the storm trooper?
I'll just leave this here.
that's some LOLUVa level photo-shopping skillz there.
The storm troopers, coming to a stadium near you
I like our chances as long as Williams promises to hold the football like that on pass plays.
If they lifted the sign ban for this game I would bring one that says "RUN THE DANG BALL".
I guess yelling that will have to suffice.
Sounds like a potential field day for McMillan
McMillian may only get 6 carries in the first half...I can tell you right now that we'll throw the ball 70% of the time on first down. At least 60% of those passes will be incomplete or go for 0-2 yards leaving us with 2nd and long situations. From there it'll be a 50-50 split of run vs pass and we'll get into 3rd and medium situations 90% of the time which will force us to throw again. We'll probably convert about 30% on 3rd downs. This is all based on Lefty-trends. I hope I'm wrong and we run the hell outta the rock. We'll see, I guess.
True, luckily I am guessing there is a less than zero chance we have to deal with loeffler shenanigans next year
that doesn't really have anything to do with this game in particular. I think Loeffler's odds at staying in Blacksburg are about the same as Bud's...
I hope you mean that in a "they're both staying" way. I know a lot of people have assumed that Loeffler's time at VT is done after this season. But I would rather him stay and keep some continuity than have to sit through another 2-3 years of a new OC with a new system having to teach his system and recruit his players before we can see any success. Loeffler has his players in there and I think that we can agree that if it were not for the injury to Brewer that this could have been a much different season.
Right now I have no idea who will be the coach, I have a few preferences, but my opinion means nothing in the great scheme. I will trust in Whit to get the right guy for the job and hope that it translates to a continuation of the solid program that we have and success on the field. I will enjoy the next 3 games and look forward to the 2016 season.
either way, really. If Bud stays Loeffler probably has a shot at staying. If Bud leaves, more likely than not, it's due to the fact a new HC is coming in and the chances of that new HC being offensive minded are pretty good. In that scenario, I don't see anywhere for Loeffler to fit in. In my honest opinion, I think both will be gone next year. It will be weird not having Foster around but I think it's something we'll have to come to terms with.
I feel good about this game because the last few years Bud has had Fedora's number, and they have essentially all the same personnel.
Sans Fuller, Bonner, and Jarrett. Those absentees are going to make a huge difference. I think UNC will get their points. We're not going to win this game unless our offense shows up in a big way. If our offense doesn't score at least 30 points I don't see VT coming out victorious.
Sadly, I have to agree. UNC's offense is older and more experienced, while our defense is younger and prone to breakdowns this year. I'm hoping they can play at the top of their game, because this one is going to be a slugfest.
Believe me, I understand how huge of a difference it's been without those three all year. I posted several times last year about how I thought everyone was underestimating the effect losing Jarrett and Bonner would have. That said, I think Foster can scheme effectively to limit this offense. I would agree with both of you though in thinking we will need a solid offensive showing to win this game. I'm thinking we need to score 30+ as well. But who knows, after all this talk and the way we sometimes play opposite of tendency (Duke game should have been low scoring, turned into a shootout) watch this game be some inexplicable low-scoring defensive struggle.
I think Reavis would have helped mediate those losses. But he's gone too so...
mitigate?
mitimedialliterate?
VT offense all the way down to FEI #91? Ouch. I thought we were in the 50's/60's and showing actual improvement this year, but statistically that seems to have leveled out.
Back to the Dumpster Fire category?
100+ Tire Fire
80-100 Dumpster Fire
60-80 Flaming bag of poo
40-60 Scentsy Wickless Candles (TM)
20-40 Smores Campfire
1-20 Bearskin Rug + Champagne + Barry White + Roaring Fireplace
This is the first week since Miami where we've really missed Kendall Fuller.
I haven't seen Army play, but I assume having our offense compared to them isn't ideal
I hope it's a sign that we're going to run the football....a lot.
Lets see we are facing an explosive play offense with a defense that leads the country in giving up explosive plays. That isn't good.
But lets hope that the GT game got everybody on board with the defense. Que the Moto Missile locking onto Williams.
Oh come on, the statistics on our explosive drives given up are middle of the road (as shown above), not "leading the country."
It's funny, I don't really think of this VT defense as being that bad on explosive plays....since the OSU game. ECU QB had a big run, Pitt RB had a big run, GT had a big pass. Other than that? Not much in my memory.
The rating is actually explosive drives, defined as averaging more than 10 yards per play.
For what it's worth, the defense has given up 50 plays of 20+ yards, 89th in the country.
This is the kind of win that the Hokie season needs, and a win that the players and Frank Beamer deserve.
EDIT: Sorry, wrong thread.