By the (Advanced) Numbers: Techmo Bowl Edition

I watched Virginia Tech's 24-21 win over Duke off the grid. I walked away feeling that while the Hokies had not dominated, and certainly underperformed, Tech came away with the win and would be just fine. When I caught up on Twitter and TKP, however, I realized that for a significant portion of the game there were many fans who were losing all hope for the remainder of the season. Some perspective follows.

Virginia Tech gained more total yards than Duke, as well as more yards per play. The Football Study Hall Advanced Stat Profile of Virginia Tech indicates that the offense performed at the 50th percentile of all teams' performances this year and the defense the 48th. So average. The spread was 11.5 points, and a result that deviates more than 8 points from the spread happens far more often than not. So breathe into a paper bag for a moment and let's talk Georgia Tech.

Have the Yellow Jackets moved to a more traditional offense and stopped chop-blocking? Of course not!

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 7-2. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

Let that 89.9% chance of a 9- or 10-win season simmer for a little while. And when have statistical projections ever turned out to be wrong? Oh yeah. That thing that happened, but I think we should stick to football here.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

Looks like four computers weigh recent results fairly heavily. Also, a reasonable person might say that the "Least Squares w/ HFA" rating system is a little inaccurate but one should wait to see if the Hokies win by 65 before making any final judgments. The odds of a 14-point favorite winning are 84.4%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Both teams feature slightly above-average offenses, but Tech has a significant defensive advantage.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Which team has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Virginia Tech offense has the ball?

Once again it would be incredibly optimistic to expect the Hokies to show any kind of dominant running game, but to this point it has been good enough, and often good enough at just the right times. Case in point? Virginia Tech is one of the leading teams on passing downs, and is rushing on passing downs 47.6% of the time; the national average is just 35%. Relevant to the game against the Bees, the Hokies are a very good passing team and to this point Georgia Tech has been among the worst pass defenses in college football. It is unlikely Jerod Evans will be held without a passing touchdown for a second straight week.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Yellow Jacket defense:

The only category in which the Hokies are not clearly above average is touchdown drives, and the six field goal performance at Pitt is certainly a contributing factor.

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Nevada
2. Utah
3. Colorado

The Georgia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Idaho
2. Hawaii
3. Eastern Michigan

When Georgia Tech Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Georgia Tech is a very effective passing team?!

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

As for personality traits:

The one thing that stands out in this regard is that turnovers may be hard to come by.

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Indiana
2. Temple
3. Houston

The Georgia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. California
2. Ole Miss
3. Texas

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokie's kicking units:

As is the pattern now, the Hokies seem to be really good at one side of each kick and really poor at the other. Credit where it is due, By the (Advanced) Numbers has made no Greg Stroman jokes this season. He's performed great.

When the Bees kick:

So the Yellow Jackets are poor at kick returns.

Who To Watch Out For

This is straightforward for the Yellow Jackets.

1. Senior QB Justin Thomas, who started 35 games in a row for Georgia Tech, does not throw often, but completes passes 10.5 yards per attempt. He also rushes at 5 yards per attempt.
2. JJ Green gains over 24 yards per kick return, but who cares because Joey Slye remains No. 1 in the country at 64.97 yards per kick.

Statistical Key to the Game

It is critical that Georgia Tech stalls on drives and is not able to convert yards into points at a high rate; I expect Fuente to turn to the pass game heavily, which will use less clock and curtail the Yellow Jackets' ability to limit possessions. But the Hokies cannot give the Bees long sustained drives that end in touchdowns.

The Stats that Define Virginia Tech's Season

Revisiting my column from this summer on the stats that will define the season, here is how the Hokies performed thus far (each listed as VT - Opponent):

I will not value time of possession.

Statistical Prediction

Bud Foster has earned my confidence in stopping Georgia Tech, and the passing game matchup seems tantalizing. Also, B-Back Dedrick Mills, the Yellow Jackets' leading rusher, has been suspended for the game. Furthermore, it's hard to imagine Virginia Tech being overconfident after the near miss at Duke. I'm predicting confidence is restored and the Hokies pick up win number eight.

Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 17

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.