Halfwits and Wagers Is On Life Support

With football season (and life) rendered meaningless, TKP's resident degenerates turn to gambling to get through the work week.

I'll be honest: there's no cheeky opener this week. Virginia Tech football hasn't been fun since a tequila-heavy trip to Tallahassee.

On the bright side, unrelenting cynicism has helped me maintain a comfortable 5 ½ game lead over Brian — the 'glass half-full' panelist around these parts— on the Halfwits leaderboard.

Brian's Record this Year (+Last Week Only) 35-40-2 (5-3-1)

Joey's Record this Year (+Last Week Only) 41-35-1 (5-3-1)

On to the lines!

True/False: Ryan Willis is the Hokies' leading rusher

Brian: False, if only for one reason. Remember way back during the game against Florida State? A time where we were all happy and thinking we underestimated the talent on the roster after Tech dismantled the Seminoles? The thing that was most interesting about that game was Brad Cornelsen's willingness to slam it down the throat of the defense with Deshawn McClease and Steven Peoples running for 130 combined yards (and actually being the lifeblood of the offense).

Let's take it back a little further. With their back against the wall after two straight losses in 2017, Cornelsen dialed up McClease and Jalen Holston for a combined 122 yards against Pittsburgh. With a hobbled Jackson and a defense beat up after a game against Georgia Tech, the Hokies needed to control the ball. They didn't do it well, but they did it.

When Cornelsen gets cornered, he sticks to what he feels most comfortable with. And I truly believe his comfort relies on a heavy ground game, centered around the quarterback and a rotation of two backs. We'll see a lot of Peoples, a dash of whoever's up next (Holston, if McClease is limited), and a few runs for the quarterback.

Since I don't really know if Willis makes the right read much of the time, I think Peoples will (wait for it)

(goes into closet)

(pulls out an old oaken chest)

(opens to reveal the largest pun gun the world has ever seen)

(loads, aims, fires:)

run away with this one.

Joey: Perhaps no stat on this floundering offense is more revealing than the fact that Ryan Willis has led the team in rushing for two consecutive weeks (and three out of the last four, just for good measure).

While I don't necessarily think it's possible for the rushing game to be any more inept, I'll roll with the trend here and stick with Vanilla Vick.

P.S. Is anyone still dying on the STEVEN PEOPLES IS THE BEST hill?

Over/Under: 1.5 completions by Quincy Patterson

Brian: I want to preface this next take. I didn't watch a single snap of the game against Pittsburgh. First time I've done that in at least 15 years. Honestly? It felt great.

But let's consider a few things:

1. Miami has an amazing pass defense (top five in the country).

2. Miami has the kind of offense that doesn't scare you. At all. Even if you perform poorly, there's a chance N'Kosi Perry is even worse.

3. Still, the only real shot to beat the Hurricanes is to control the ball and give your defense plenty of time off the field (yes, I know they gave up 90 big plays to Pitt).

Why don't Fuente and Cornelsen say "f **k it" and just start Patterson (or Hooker, for that matter). As I rationalized above, Cornelsen's comfort zone seems to stem in the read option, QB run game. He did an amazing job with those schemes in 2016, with Jerod Evans and his rotating cast of average tail backs. If you're going to play desperately, why not throw something at this Hurricane defense that they haven't seen before?

If it's a disaster, they can just redshirt Patterson and move on into a 4-7 dumpster fire. If it goes well, they'd have a decision on their hands (and maybe still decide to redshirt him), but isn't that a great "worst case scenario"?

That being said, he'll either not play or set the fan base ablaze by using him the same way they did last week. Under.

Joey: In our weekly edition of "Does the coaching staff trust Quincy Patterson yet?", the answer continues to be a resounding 'No'.

No, Mike, there's at least seven plays. Corn hasn't even unleashed the double reverse throwback pass to Quincy yet on 3rd and 1.

Under.

Over/Under: 450 total yards for Miami

Brian: Isn't the plan for the Hurricanes to load the box against Perry, take away as much of the run as possible and make the freshman beat you? It sounds like an amazing plan until you consider that it leaves Caleb Farley, Jovonn Quillen, and Jermaine Waller on islands where they could get badly exploited. And if Bud commits to stopping the run, it's not as if that's a guaranteed way to slow Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas down.

Though they don't seem like an offense that could sniff 450 yards without some sort of utter calamity across from them, the Hokies may just be that calamity. Over.

Joey: "Isn't the plan for the Hurricanes to load the box against Perry, take away as much of the run as possible..."

/has a stroke

WASN'T THAT THE PLAN AGAINST PITT AND GEORGIA TECH? WASN'T IT????

In all seriousness, this defense is broken and Bud Foster knows it. While Jarrod Hewitt is expected to return (which should help a reeling defensive line), I can't bet on a decimated defense to bow its neck until I see it live.

Over.

Over/Under: 10 second half points for Virginia Tech

Brian: Ugh, who knows. With the talent of the Miami defense, this screams under to me. There is a chance that the Hurricanes have mailed in the rest of the season, and that their D is tired of holding up a struggling counterpart (doesn't that feel nice and familiar?) But until I see the Hokies do anything that could change my mind, I'll take the under.

What? I'm not sad, you're sad. Who's sad? There's nothing to be sad about! Haha!

Joey: While the tone of this column has been incredibly depressing thus far (hand up!), I'm changing my tune here. I actually like the Hokies.

Is it because I think the defense gets shredded for the umpteenth time and forces Fuente into playing catchup for the entire second half? Of course.

But an over is an over. Go Tech.

Notre Dame -10.5 vs. Syracuse

Brian: Though it's a neutral-site game, everything favors the Irish. It's in New York, which is home to far more Notre Dame fans (or "fans") than Syracuse football fans. It's outdoors, where the Orange have struggled this year (both of their losses came on the road, as well as close-ish contests against Wake Forest and Western Michigan).

But 10.5? With Ian Book coming off an injury? And Dino-mania silently taking over college football? I don't love 'Cuse as much as someone else in this column, but I like them to cover here.

(And more importantly, I think they're great teaser material.)

Joey: With a less than compelling CFP slate on tap for Saturday, No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 13 Syracuse squaring off at Yankee Stadium is far and away the most relevant game nationally. Which is a wild sentence to write.

(Yes, GameDay's heading to UCF/Cincinnati, but that's more a result of ESPN staying away from an early-afternoon game on NBC than it is a vote of confidence for the American Conference.)

The scary thing about this spot is that I absolutely love Syracuse. Like, "forget the points, bet the moneyline" kind of love.

A banged up Ian Book? An inspired Syracuse team playing for their first New Year's Six bowl berth since the Donovan McNabb era?

Yeah, give me Eric Dungey and Dino Babers ruining a red-faced Brian Kelly's playoff hopes for the rest of eternity. Orange +10.5.

Iowa State +3 @ Texas

Brian: Have the Cyclones ripped off the quietest five-game winning streak in America? There's a real chance they could win the next three, turning a 1-3 start into a 9-3 finish. If that happens, is Matt Campbell the best coach in the country? Could he turn around USC? What about Louisville? The Browns? The national health care system?

The Longhorns rallied last week after straight two crushing losses, something that shows the program's growth under Tom Herman. In past seasons, we would have seen a total collapse in Austin. But now, I think they win, cover, and continue their gradual ascent to relevance.

Also how could I bet against Ok. Cool. Hook Em!

Joey: I don't have a real take on the "Battle for 3rd Place" in the Big 12 — this game is really only included to let our newly-minted Texan get his Tom Herman jokes in.

Forced to make a pick, I'll roll with the Fighting Hermans since they don't have to travel to Ames.

OK. Cool. Hook Em!

The Joey Coogan Memorial "Navy Hits the Over" Lock of the Week.

Brian: This is an awful week for college football, and it's not a great one for gambling either. And as much as this column already hurts, there's one line that I do like. Georgia Tech is overvalued coming off wins against the worst teams in the Coastal (Miami, UNC, VT). Virginia is coming off what is basically a bye week against Liberty. They'll have the legs, and Bronco Mendenhall will have the defense prepared for the option, and Bryce Perkins is the best QB the Yellow Jackets have faced since Trevor Lawrence (Daniel Jones was still coming off injury in Duke's win in Atlanta).

Yet somehow UVA is a touchdown underdog on the road. I'd bet the moneyline, but the spread is really nice.

Joey: Navy was (pauses, double checks box score) actually competitive against UCF last week, putting up just enough of a fight to keep the total below 60 (sending my Navy bets back under .500 for the year).

This week the Midshipmen host Tulsa, an offensive-oriented program who until just recently held the distinct honor of being the only team since 2004 to rack up 49+ points against a Bud Foster-coached defense (returns to bourbon).

Total is 53. Over.

Virginia Tech-Miami Over/Under: 51

Brian: Neither offense is explosive enough to make this over happen. Unless Miami plays with a Pitt-like tenacity on the ground, the under seems like a lock.

(I'm a little upset we couldn't bet the over/under on Landers Nolley's ACT retake. Because that's an over I can get behind.)

Joey: Miami hasn't hit the 51 number since their 28-27 comeback win over Florida State on October 6, a figure reflective of a defensive-minded, offensively challenged football team (and one with Stacy Searels still coaching the o-line).

That said, Virginia Tech overs have been a breeze the last 3 weeks, and I think we all know why. Miami has to be talented enough to get into the 30's against this defense, so I'll go over.

Spread: Miami -5.5

Brian: Five and half point underdog to a bad Miami team, in Lane Stadium? I'd say that the disrespect is real, but I feel like this is an accurate assumption. Miami has the defense to get enough stops to overcome awful quarterback play. Remember how bad Anthony Brown was two weeks ago? BC still won by 10. Miami wins by a touchdown.

Joey: Let's review the Hokies' ATS performance since the calendar flipped to October:

  • VT +6.5 vs. Notre Dame (L, 45-23): Loss
  • VT -6.5 @ North Carolina (W, 22-19): Loss
  • VT -3 vs. Georgia Tech (L, 49-28): Loss
  • VT +2 vs. Boston College (L, 31-21): Loss
  • VT +3.5 @ Pittsburgh (L, 52-22): Loss

Yeah, I'll take Miami -5.5, please and thank you.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.

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"Nope, launch him into the sun and fart on him on the way up"
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I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

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I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

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"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

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