It's that time of year again, where we start looking at the remaining schedule and figure out what it takes for each team to win the Coastal. Or at least that time of year when I've finally gotten off my ass and crunched the numbers.
At this point in the season, we are down to 11 conference games remaining involving Coastal Division teams, meaning we have 2^11 = 2048 different possible paths the season can take. Here is a list of each team still alive in the Coastal race, how many of the 2048 paths lead them to Charlotte, and what their odds are (based on the S&P+ rankings):
| Team | # Outcomes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pitt | 1221 | 48.6% |
| UVA | 320 | 21.0% |
| VT | 356 | 14.4% |
| Miami | 86 | 11.6% |
| GT | 63 | 4.35% |
| GT, Pitt, or VT | 2 | 0.0100% |
Note: the 3-way tie listed in the table above will be broken based on the highest-ranked team out of the group in the "Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics", as per tiebreaker #7.
Yes, 5 teams are still alive in the Coastal race. Yes, the 2 teams with the best chance to win have never won the Coastal before. Yes, Duke is eliminated, despite the fact that they tie for the lead in 72 possible outcomes (and lose by tiebreakers to each of the 5 teams still alive in the race). And while Virginia Tech is no longer the favorite, we are still in the race. However, to stay in the race we absolutely have to beat Pitt next week, as we won't get any help from tiebreakers in the unlikely chance we still get to 5-3 and tie with Pitt and potentially Duke, GT, and/or UVA.
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