Scoring output worst of Seth Greenberg era

I've been pondering our offensive woes this season, and wanted to compare this season's scoring to past seasons under Seth Greenberg.  While some of the numbers aren't drastically different, so far this season is the worst overall - I'm sure you're shocked.

In the below spreadsheet I listed the past 9 seasons and included team scoring, our 4 leading scorers each season, their contributions to scoring, and the percentages of their contributions against the team total.  I also included the final four teams from the last 3 seasons as a comparison.

This season Erick Green, Dorenzo Hudson, Jerrell Eddie, and Robert Brown are our top 4 scorers with 15.9, 11.9, 9.9, and 7.7 points per game respectively.  As a team, we're averaging 67.7 points per game, Green and Hudson are accounting for 27.8ppg (41.1% of the total), and all four are accounting for 45.4ppg (67.1% of the total).  The team's 67.7ppg and Green's 15.9ppg as the leading scorer are the worst since the 2005-06 season when we were 14-16 overall, 4-12 in the ACC, and it was the last time we had no postseason.  Green and Hudson's combined 27.8ppg is the worst top 2 scoring we've had under Seth.  Likewise, Green, Hudson, Eddie, and Brown's 45.4ppg is the worst top 4 scoring.

On the bottom half of the sheet I put the same stats for the final four teams of the last 3 NCAA Tournaments.  (Note: The green and yellow cells of the Final Four stats are the maximums and minimums for that column.)  What I found interesting is that 8 of those 12 teams scored less than 75 points per game.  Scoring-wise, the Hokies of the last 5 seasons (2006-2011) almost fit right in with those Final Four teams.  We were scoring 70+ points per game, our top 2 scorers during those years were contributing over 40% of the points, and the top 4 scorers were scoring over 50 points per game (72+% of the team's output each season).  Not only is scoring down for our top scorers this season, but they're contributing less to team scoring compared to year's past.

My thought has been that this year we lack a true playmaker, and that's the reason why we're not scoring as well as we've had in the past.  Our half-course offense (as ugly as it is) is no different this year than it has been in past seasons.  The difference is that we've generally had one or two guys who were scoring threats. eg: Bryant Matthews, Zabian Dowdell, AD Vassallo, Deron Washington, Malcom Delaney.  The closest thing we have to a playmaker on this team is Erick Green, but he's only scoring 16 points per game and getting very little support from the rest of the team.

I've seen some discussion about it, and I believe the fact that he's playing point guard is hurting his scoring opportunities.  Seth is going to have to get creative by putting Rankin and Green on the floor more, and moving Green off the ball.  That should create more scoring chances for him.  The other thing that must change is our offensive philosphy in the half-court.  To my non-expert eye, it's essentially been the same since Greenberg has been here: a couple of guys moving, the others standing still, and we leave it to one guy's athleticism to make a play.  This year we have no one making plays, and the two contributing seniors on this squad (Hudson and Davilla) are scoring less than 20ppg between the two of them.

I do not know what the rest of this season will bring, but if you go by the numbers and the trends, we will be fortunate to make the CBI.

NOTE: All statistics from previous seasons came from ncaa.org, and this season's stats came from espn.com.

Comments

Spreadsheet

If anyone is interested in looking at the original spreadsheet, you can download it here.

Green and Rankin

Look for Green and Rankin to play together tonight. We can't afford these slow starts anymore, especially against a team like Duke. I think that the team has showed flashes of what they can do, especially against Maryland in the 2nd half. But this team really needs to help itself. We are good when we can create offensive opportunities with our defense. Duke's guard play isn't as strong this year as it has been in recent years. Yes, they can still shoot and score certainly, but they don't have as much experience and savvy as recent Duke guards. If the Hokies can create some easy chances of their own with good defense, the scoring will come a little easier. But if you can't get stops consistently on defense, you leave yourself no chance for any break points at all. We need to play in the open court more: not necessarily play uptempo because we aren't that deep, but we need to create easy chances with better half court defense like we did last Saturday in the 2nd half.

"This is just spectacular... These people are losing their mind. This is beautiful."

Dorian Finney-Smith Scoring

In games where DoDo scores in double figures we are 8-0, when he doesn't, 5-10. This is after, what is hopefully, his resurgence in the Clemson game. There are plenty of stats to look at, but this one to me is huge. With as many minutes as he has been getting, he's got to put up points for us to win.

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dmcross