By the (Advanced) Numbers: Midseason Report

At this time last season Virginia Tech was also coming off a win over North Carolina. However, the Hokies sat at 5-1. Their only loss was to, at the time, No. 1 Alabama, in a game much closer than the scoreboard made things appear. Of course the wheels came off after that, but nevertheless on paper it would seem that things were going much better at the midpoint last year.

Yet there is some feeling of optimism right now, that didn't exist last year. It's as though last season fans were pessimistic despite the record, and this year fans are optimistic despite the record. It feels like there is consistency at QB (insert joke here about consistent interceptions), the offense finally has some identity that includes a running game, and much of Tech's success thus far has been at the hands of underclassmen.

But what do the numbers say?

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

First some of the goods from the first half of the season:

• Virginia Tech is averaging 4.33 sacks/game, second in the country, and has accumulated a leading 185 sack yards.
• The Hokies have possessed the ball for 34:55 per game, third in the country. Although, it's an overrated stat, but it's something the offense tries to do so it's good to see they are succeeding.
• DBU is second in the country in passes broken up.
• Opponents are converting only 24.1% of third downs, the second lowest allowed.
• Bud's defense is only allowing 44.9% of passes to be completed, the lowest rate in FBS.

Next some of the bads:

• The Hokies are second in interceptions thrown with 11 (Thanks UNLV!).
• Virginia Tech is 95th in the country in YPP, gaining just 5.21 yards per play.
• On kickoff returns, the team is gaining just 17.75 yards on average - 117th in the country.
• VT is one of 10 teams that has yet to have a 50+ yard play.

And the ugly:

• Virginia Tech has committed 9.5 penalties per game, 9th worst in FBS.
• DB-Ewww has given up 16, 20+ yard rushing plays (third worst in the nation) and 22, 20 yard passing plays (23rd worst). The combined 38 plays is fifth worst in the country.

The Record

Even those who thought we might start 4-2 likely didn't envision it happening quite this way and yet here we are. The uncertainty many of us had going into the season has only been amplified to this point and the 7-10 win range most of us predicted remains completely intact.

Brian Fremeau breaks down each game's "non-garbage-time" score difference into four components: offense, defense, special teams, and extra possession(s) (since a team who gets more possessions than another would score, on average, 1.9 additional points). Here is how our FBS games break down this season (Learn more about game splits.)

Through Western Michigan, the offense and defense contributed (win or lose) fairly equally; both contributed to the wins and both suffer blame for the losses. However, against UNC we saw the offense give us a negative contribution towards the 17-point differential, while the defense contributed over 16 points!

Further cause for optimism is that thus far special teams have made a positive contribution in every game.

Special Teams aka BeamerBall

(More details on methods can be found at http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist)

Speaking of the contribution of special teams, it must be mentioned that after finishing the last three seasons with overall special teams efficiencies that ranked 75th, 62nd, and 68th the Hokies have quietly moved back among the leaders at 24th this season. FEI breaks down how each unit has specifically fared relative to all other teams and the average:

While the field goal kicking and return games have been at or a little below average thus far, the Hokies have been quite dominant at stopping their opponents from doing damage in the same. Consider:

1. Although VT ranks 79th in average punt distance at 40.68 yards, opponents are averaging just 3 yards per return and have opted to attempt a return on just 12 of 32 punts.
2. Opponents are gaining over 20 yards per kickoff return (62nd) but have gone over 30 yards just once and never over 40.
3. Virginia Tech has held opponents to a 53.8% field goal percentage.

Is BeamerBall back?

The Offense

The Hokies have finished with the following S&P+ offense rankings recently: 2013 (91st), 2012 (68th), 2011 (45th) and 2010 (7th).

Given that, one has to wonder how much of a leap Tech needs to make from 2013 to give fans optimism, and how much of a leap is reasonable?

At the midpoint the offense ranks 83rd. It would be easy to make the case that such an improvement is neither enough for optimism, nor being constrained by what's possible from one season to the next. If Scot Loeffler is going to keep many fans on his side after this season, the team will need to make more improvement in the second half. Where does S&P+ rate the Hokies on specific metrics?

The team thus far has an average-at-best success rate (gaining enough yards based on down and distance), and that's the highlight. IsoPPP, a measure of explosiveness, rates Virginia Tech about as explosive as a wet paper sack. Otherwise, the Hokies are sitting a little below average rushing, passing, on standard downs and passing downs. This offers us little to get excited about.

FEI generally agrees with S&P+ and has Tech at 95th. Further, it breaks down the offense using some personality metrics.

FEI has Tech even further below average on most metrics including First Down Rate (drives where at least one first down is obtained), Available Yards (% of possible yards gained), Explosive Drives (% of drives averaging 10+ yards per play), and Value Drives (those starting in your own territory and making it to at least the opponent's 30). FEI does offer one area where the Hokies have excelled: Methodical Drives, those lasting 10 plays or more. The Hokies rank 43rd.

The Defense

In Bud we trust. For good reason.

The Foster defense is once again—yawn—looking elite, currently rated 6th in S&P+. Where specifically is Virginia Tech excelling?

Lower ratings are better here as they are relevant to what opposing offenses are able to do against a defense. Nearly across the board, VT has above average ratings including the 9th-best opposing success rate. One weakness, not surprisingly, has been a tendency to give up explosive plays (IsoPPP) where the unit ranks a disappointing 107th. Can our stud DB's make the adjustments needed to shut down the deep ball moving forward?

FEI is not quite as generous, ranking the defense 29th. Let's hope FEI doesn't find itself in a dark alley with Bud Foster. On specific personality metrics FEI rates the Hokies similarly to S&P+:

Of course opposing offenses are having explosive drives at an above average rate, but otherwise they are getting shut down in multiple ways. Somewhat the opposite of the traditional bend-don't-break defensive strategies we have seen over the years, Virginia Tech is breaking but not bending, rating No. 2 in the country at preventing methodical drives.

What to Expect

What do I think happens in the second half? Here are my predictions:

• Brewer's interception rate only comes down slightly, but we continue to throw the ball at a much higher rate than in the past. Brett Favre leads the NFL in career TD's but also career INT's. The passing game continues to be a pleasant surprise and frustrating mess.
• There will be significant improvement in the defense's ability to stop big plays, and not at the expense of methodical drives. Despite injuries the defense is a force in the second half.
• Thanks to improved run blocking, the run game continues to improve despite injuries to the best running backs. Sam Rogers sees an increase in caries as we anticipate pounding out rushing yardage and not explosive rushing plays.
• FEI predicts 8.3 wins, but I will go with 9 regular season wins as I believe less turnovers helps more than RB/DL injuries hurt.
• In a close game that sees us nearly lose the Commonwealth Cup, we edge UVA and escape with our 11th straight win. Unfortunately we finish 2nd in the division behind Georgia Tech, who clinches the week prior against Clemson.

What are your predictions for the second half? Post them to the comments! You could win turkey legs!

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.