By the (Advanced) Numbers: East Carolina

If you used any four-letter words when you found out Tech (No. 19) was ranked one spot lower than Ohio State (No. 18) in the coaches poll, then you probably won't think too highly of computers at this point in the season. Generally, computer rankings still have us behind Ohio State, but only because most gradually phase out last year's results as the season progresses. Just remember that the knee-jerk ranking adjustments humans make that seem somewhat logical at this point in the season become a detriment later when entire resumes are thrown out because of one unexpected result.

Let's see what the computers think of East Carolina anyway!

These are the computer rankings:

This is where those computers predict the result, and what Vegas thinks:

So Vegas has us at about an 11-point favorite this time around, with computer opinions all over the place, but all have VT winning this one. The odds of an 11-point favorite winning are 78.4%. Of course this has trap game written all over it, so many of us think that number should be lower.

So why is Tech favored by so much against a team its previously struggled with? Let's first look at any offensive or defensive advantages.

East Carolina is known for it's passing attack, but surprisingly it's the matchup of our defense against their offense that's contributing. When we are on offense, they have a negligible defensive advantage. In other words, rather than anticipating a shootout the S&P+ ratings have an average offensive performance from us and our defensive keeping the Pirates' attack below average.

Remember of course that just like overall ratings these factor in last season somewhat, and I think we're all feeling there's a real offense residing in Blacksburg.

The East Carolina Passing Attack

The Pirates return third-year stud QB Shane Carden and top two WR's Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones who combined for nearly 1,900 receiving yards last season, but are replacing much of their offensive line. Some 2013 stats that should give you an idea of how their passing attack operates:

• 3rd nationally in completion percentage at 70.3%
• 7th nationally in attempts per game at 43.5
• 46th nationally in yards/attempt at 7.3
• 110th nationally in yards/completion at 10.7

Obviously this is a high efficiency passing attack that works the short game masterfully while posing little deep threat. In fact, here are their national ranks from last year in completed passes at different distances.

Thus far, their downfield attack in 2014 mirrors 2013, so don't expect anything different.

Individual Standouts

QB Shane Carden ranked 2nd in completion percentage last year, between Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel, while throwing 31 TD's and only 10 INT's.

WR Justin Hardy was third in the country in receptions with 114 (as discussed above however, both Hardy and Carden do not rank highly on explosiveness). Additionally, he was 23rd in the country on punt returns, averaging over 11 yards per return.

Statistically, no one stands out at the RB position (the highest YPC on last year's team did not crack the top 100 nationally) or on defense, but Carden and Hardy will provide enough difficulties. Think of ECU's passing attack as Georgia Tech in the air — death by 1,000 cuts.

Statistical Key to the Game

I think our offense will be fine in this game, not putting up 40+ points or anything, but I see us somewhere in the high 20's or low 30's. So really this game hinges on our ability to shut down the ECU passing attack as much as possible. The passing stat that was most highly correlated to ECU's points per game last year (r = 0.746) was yards/attempt:

There are two ways to limit yards/attempt: literally allow fewer yards when a pass is completed, and/or reduce their completion percentage. I trust our defense to keep gains minimal, so for me the key to the game will be ECU's completion percentage — anything in the 50's or low 60's would mean a likely win.

My Prediction

Hopefully I'm not making a mistake, but I'm not buying this as a trap game we'll lose. While it has those characteristics, I think our coaches were so mindful of it coming out of Columbus and we have a team that remembers 15-10 last season.

I'm going with a 60% completion percentage for Shane Carden, 6 yards/attempt, and a 30-17 Hokie win.

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.