There are a few ways to attempt to quantify the offenses performance this year. Average points scored is one of them, but that does not take into account how strong a particular defense is. This year we faced the #3 (ND) and #10 (Miami) defenses.
One set of metrics that does that this into account is the S&P+ (through 11/10/18). We can compare our offensive performance vs. the average points scored against each defense.
Below is a table that summarizes our performance to date. A negative number in the difference column indicates we under performed vs the average number of points scored against each team.
|Team||Defensive S&P+ Rank||Defensive S&P+||VT Points Scored||Difference|
Unfortunately, there is no simple trend to be gleaned from this data. We underperformed in 6 of 9 games, which is not surprising given our record. Our largest underperformance was against UNC and our smallest against FSU.
Even our over performance against ND was not enough to win.
What does this mean?
For it to mean something, we would have to agree on a standard. What is the acceptable level of offensive performance? Average? Above Average? Excellent? And what do those qualifiers mean quantitatively?
I do not think I will try to answer the aforementioned questions now.
I think it's fair to say there is little excuse for the offense to perform poorly against bad defenses like ODU, Pitt, UNC and GT. With our defense in the condition it is in, even a great performance against Pitt and GT may not have changed the outcome, but we should expect more. How much more? I can't say. I have doubts the data is nicely distributed for each team let alone across teams. Maybe the answer is enough to win? Maybe the answer is #X in the ACC, whatever we think X should be.