Halfwits and Wagers: Furman

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Brian and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

Five days after a disheartening home loss to the defending champion Buckeyes, the Hokies will be looking to re-establish themselves on both sides of the ball against FCS Furman. The Paladins are coming off a 38-35 loss to fellow FCS foe Coastal Carolina, which saw Furman amass 525 yards of total offense behind a 365-yard performance from quarterback Reese Hannon.

The Hokies have a number of question marks, most notably whether or not new starting quarterback Brenden Motley will seize the opportunity to lead the offense. This will be an important game for Virginia Tech to regain some confidence, establish their offensive identity sans Michael Brewer, and hopefully get some important reps for younger and inexperienced players.

The wound is still fresh from the Hokies' 2010 disaster against FCS James Madison, which came five days after a loss in the closing minutes to Boise State. But let's not confuse the Paladins with that 2010 JMU team — despite faltering down the stretch due to widespread injuries, the Dukes were two years removed from a No. 3 post-season ranking. The Paladins, on the other hand, are coming off a 3-9 season in which they were outscored by almost 11 points per game.

So what can we expect from the Paladins against an angry Virginia Tech squad looking to regroup? Will running back Antonio Wilcox and the seasoned Paladin wideouts be thorns in the Hokie defense's side Saturday afternoon? Can the Hokies offensive line build off of their performance against the talented Ohio State defense and help establish a potent rushing attack? Can Brenden Motley gain some confidence operating (some variation of) Scot Loeffler's offensive system and get comfortable throwing the football? On to the lines!

Over/Under 200 Passing Yards for the Furman Offense.

Brian: Okay, so last week the Paladins threw 41 times for 365 yards. That, however, was against Coastal Carolina. In Tech's last four games against FCS opponents, Bud Foster and company have allowed an average of 101.5 yards in the air. Even considering that Furman can move the ball a little better than someone like Austin Peay, I think the under is very safe.

Pierson: Under. I expect to see Bud Foster dialing up pressure early and often against the Paladins and quarterback Reese Hannon, who will be starting only his third career game. The secondary will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after Monday's game, and I think we will see an aggressive unit looking to regain some confidence and re-assert themselves as one of the more talented units in the nation.

Over/Under 3.5 Interceptions for the Hokie Defense.

Brian: Over. I mean, the Hokies have to score from somewhere, right? I joke, kind of. Let's just say I expect the defense to gamble a little more than usual to give their offense as much of a head start as possible.

Pierson: Over. Hannon threw two picks last week against a weak Coastal Carolina defense, and as I noted above, I expect to see consistent pressure by the Hokie defense. We might see a lot of quick hitters across the middle to keep Hannon upright, so look for Greg Stroman and Donovan Riley to get in on the action early. I expect Hannon to generally stay away from Kendall Fuller, so look for Brandon Facyson to have a big game on the opposite side.

Who Takes More Snaps at Quarterback for the Hokies? Brenden Motley, Chris Durkin or Dwayne Lawson?

Brian: There's only one answer, and it's definitely Motley. With a short week the coaches won't do anything crazy, which means that I expect Scot Loeffler to run something that looks like his normal offense. (Now, what does a Scot Loeffler offense look like? Our scientists have yet to come to a distinct conclusion.) To me, this question has much more to do with who plays against Purdue. Because Mot is going to be given every chance to succeed, again within the bounds of his coach's playbook. And if he struggles against (theoretically) the worst team he'll play all year? It's possible that we simply may never see him again.

Pierson: Probably Motley, because the Hokie offense is eternally enigmatic and I believe stubborn Scot Loeffler will try and make it work with Motley over rolling the dice on a guy like Durkin or Lawson. I'll just get this out of the way right now: I'm not convinced Motley is the guy moving forward. I understand that he was thrown into a tough situation against a ferocious Buckeye defense on Monday, but going back to Spring 2014, he has never looked truly confident throwing the ball from the pocket. If Brewer returns in 4-6 weeks (which I doubt) or never again, I would prefer to see Lefty subtly adjust his offense to suit whoever is under center and not make wholesale changes because the more experienced guy doesn't fit the system. Motley could be that guy (and I think the staff is going to give him every chance to be the guy); but if the staff feels Lawson is ready to make an impact, I wouldn't be surprised if he moves up the depth chart quickly, as he looks to be a better fit for how this offense is currently built.

Over/Under 9.5 Passing Attempts by Brenden Motley.

Brian: Over, for the exact reason I stated above. Motley is going to be given every single opportunity to show what he can do. And if we know one thing about Loeffler is that he's going to take his quarterbacks to a cliff and push them off, just to see if they've learned to fly. Remember when he took the yellow jersey off Andrew Ford? Yeah, needless to say not everyone spreads their wings for mama bird Scot. He'll chuck it around a little, and if he struggles? I'm sure we'll find him at the bottom of Loeffler's cliff with Ford and Mark Leal.

Pierson: Under, for two reasons: (1) I expect to see the running game early and often; and (2) because I expect some type of timeshare under center. The Ohio State game proved that the offensive line has the ability to run the ball well, especially between the tackles. With suspended sophomore back Shai McKenzie returning from suspension, Lefty and Shane Beamer have an opportunity to run at the Paladins until they prove they can stop the variety of rushing options. If the Hokies' ground game can get going early, it will make Motley's — and the rest of the Hokie quarterbacks' — passing plays that much easier.

Over/Under 1.5 Games Before Hokies Fans Talk Themselves Into "Sam Rogers for Quarterback."

Brian: Under. So much under. We're one Rogers 15-yard burst up the middle from fans storming the field, carrying him out on their shoulders, draping him in an American flag and taking him right to Washington D.C.

That's right. Sam Rogers will be the 45th president of the United States.

Pierson: Under. I think we will be hearing that by the fourth quarter of Saturday's game, but not before the, "SAM ROGERS FOR HEISMAN" Campaign kicks into gear shortly after halftime! Hello Sam Rogers billboards in Times Square! Could you imagine an enormous image of Sam screaming at tourists who just want to grab a picture with the Naked Cowboy or take their kids to the M&M Store? Glorious.

Over/Under 275 Rushing Yards for the Virginia Tech Offense.

Brian: Over. Remember the Western Michigan game where the team came out in the second half and was hell bent on running the ball? They didn't look very good, and it made you wonder if proving a point in game was the best of decisions, but they ended up with over 300 yards rushing. I'm thinking we'll see something like that.

Pierson: Over. While I think it would be cute to see Motley & Co. chuck the ball around the yard, Frank Beamer doesn't do cute. Even before Brewer went down, the efficacy of Lefty's system rested on establishing a ground attack to set up the passing game. Saturday's approach will be relatively vanilla, but that shouldn't matter; this team needs to continue to prove to itself that they can effectively run the football in obvious rushing down-and-distances. With Shai McKenzie coming off suspension, I fully expect to see a steady dose of JC, Trey, Travon, Shai and Sam Rogers for sixty minutes.

True or False? Ryan Malleck Will Lead the Hokies in Receptions for the Second Straight Week.

Brian: Sure. I mean if everyone finishes the game with two receptions apiece, does that count?

Pierson: False, because even Scot Loeffler has realized this offense is at its best when the ball is in the hands of his strongest playmaker. That's right, Sam Bleepin' Rogers. SAM ROGERS FOR HEISMAN.

Matchup Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Brian: So if you think that Furman will score between 0 and 13, that means Tech would have to score between 33 and 46 points to hit the over. 33 is something that's possibly attainable. POSSIBLY. But do you really think, even with your biggest orange and maroon glasses on, the Hokies will score 46 points? Five days after losing their starting quarterback quite possibly for the year? I'm not going to tell you what to think, but...

Pierson: Under. Don't be fooled by the Paladins' offensive explosion versus Coastal Carolina. I don't expect them to score more than 10 points Saturday, if only because the Hokie defense will be playing with a chip on their shoulders. Will the Virginia Tech offense drop 36 or more points with a run-first attack led by a quarterback making his first career start? Doubtful.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-38)

Brian: Hahahahahahahahaha nooooooope. Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope nope. No way they cover. Let me rephrase, the only way Tech covers is if they score 3 non-offensive touchdowns. Sure, that's technically not out of the picture, I guess. But let's be honest. it totally is.

Pierson: Child, please. Do you remember the last time the Hokies won by 38 points or more? That's right, November 26, 2011 over UVa. 38-0 bro. That's 42 consecutive games, a stretch that has only seen the Hokies surpass 38 points three times, only one of which occurred during the Scot Loeffler era. Unless we see 1-2 non-offensive touchdowns and a shutout from the defense, I doubt we sniff this spread.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.