Halfwits and Wagers: Purdue

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Brian and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

On Saturday afternoon, the Hokies will play their first road game of the season as they travel to West Lafayette, Indiana to do battle with the Purdue Boilermakers. The Boilermakers are mired in what feels like a never-ending rebuilding mode, but hope springs eternal early in the season. The Boilermakers are coming off of a lopsided victory over the Indiana State Sycamores — known more as the alma mater of Larry Legend than for their football prowess — putting up 540 yards of total offense behind strong performances from QB Austin Appleby and tailback D.J. Knox. The Boilermakers have a couple of defensive playmakers that will look to spoil Tech QB Brenden Motley's road debut, including LB Ja'Whaun Bentley and corners Frankie Williams and Anthony Brown.

Is Purdue a team on the rise, or — in the immortal words of the Talking Heads — "same as it ever was?" Will first time starter at mike Sean Huelskamp and the linebacking core be able to lock down Purdue's talented tailbacks? Can Brenden Motley build off his phenomenal second half against Furman and firmly establish himself as the Hokies' starting quarterback? Will the sun ever come out during Saturday's game, or is West Lafayette eternally damned to constantly overcast skies? On to the lines!

Over/Under 400 yards of total offense for Purdue

Brian: Pssssssssssssh. You kidding? After Darrell Hazell complains about Tech's corners holding, and everyone wondering what they'll look like after the Motuapuaka injury? My gut says they come out, the defensive line takes over and Austin Appleby has a hell of a time trying to move the ball.

(Side note: Austin Appleby sounds like the name of a rival quarterback in an VH1-produced high school football movie.)

Pierson: Under, but I think they come close. Our rush defense continues to make me nervous, as teams have looked to exploit the edges and cutback lanes. Furman's Curly Sue freshman tailback Triston Luke continually found success against the Hokies' front seven last week, and Purdue tailback D.J. Knox has a similar make-up; short and stocky, and a quick, strong runner. Sean Huelskamp has been all over the place in past scrimmages, but I worry how he holds up over four quarters given his small stature. Pair that with the fact that Appleby, who is deceptively mobile for his size, has the potential to beat us with his legs a la Chad Voytik. That would irritate the hell out of me.

Over/Under 2.5 Turnovers by Appleby

Brian: OVER. Hard over. At Marshall this guy had more bad picks than Chris Berman on his two minute drill. And I mean, not to diss the Herd, but it's not like they're the '85 Bears. My guess is that Appleby becomes very acquainted with the defensive line and hits a few corners in stride, especially considering that they're going to need to help Brenden Motley out as much as possible for the second straight week.

Pierson: Over. OC John Shoop has been using more four and five wide sets this year to try and open things up. While their running game has been strong through two games and I expect them to lean on it once again on Saturday, Appleby is still going to chuck the ball around. The biggest knock on Appleby is his tendency to force throws into tight coverage, which is a horrible attribute to have against a Hokies' secondary.

Over/Under 9.5 smiling Purdue fans caught on camera (they just really, really don't seem like happy folk)

Brian: Well, it sounds like the atmosphere is pretty awesome:

@thekeyplay it is the worst stadium and college town I ever ever been to, and that includes multiple MAC teams— Matt Brown (@MattSBN) September 14, 2015

So weighing that evidence with the fact that Purdue hasn't had a good team since I was in elementary school (really, though), I just don't think they're really used to working the facial muscles necessary for smiling.

Pierson: Under. Have you ever watched a Purdue home game on TV? No? Find an old game during the Drew Brees era on Youtube — it's always unseasonably cold and depressingly overcast. There's far too much melatonin in West Lafayette for 10 people to smile. The over/under should be 9.5 conscious Purdue fans caught on camera.

Rank 'Em: Most-to-least carries between J.C., Trey, Travon, Shai, Sam, Motley, Dwayne and Durk

Brian: Here's how I would do it: McMillian and Edmunds split the most carries, everyone else gets between 3 and 0. My best realistic guess? Everyone gets 6 carries, and at least one of the backs makes a comment about finding it difficult to get into a rhythm in next week's media availability.

Pierson: Hmmm...Spins the Shane Beamer Running Back Carousel Wheel of Destiny...Trey, Travon, Motley, J.C., Shai, Dwayne, Sam, Durk. Confidence: 5 percent. Sidenote: Would it surprise you one bit if Shai is getting more carries than J.C. from hereon?

Over/Under 200 passing yards for Brenden Motley

Brian: I think over, because I think Scot Loeffler will use something similar to what he used with Logan Thomas. A lot of throws down the seams and down the field, trying to use Bucky, Kline, Ford and Phillips vertically to stretch out the defense. Even if he doesn't hit a ton of them (which is more than likely), his yardage numbers could be impressive.

Pierson: Over, but barely. I think the offense wants to be able to run at will and will do so early to allow Motley to settle in against Purdue's talented linebackers and corners. I expect Lefty to continue to use the running game and read option to open up the passing game, playing into Motley's strengths to put him in a position to succeed. Similar to the second half against Furman, look for the Hokies' receiving weapons to do damage in space. If Motley's accuracy breaks down (again), then this is all moot.

True or False? Chris Durkin will soulcrush at least one Purdue defender running the football on Saturday

Brian: I bet that Durkin gets three carries, each of them being a "read option" in which the only read happening is him reading the eyes of a terrified Boilermaker safety moments before impact. You can critique him as a quarterback all you want, but that dude wants to bring the pain with every carry.

Pierson: True. Durkin should be Blake Bell ca. 2011. Put him in for short yardage situations and let him go baby. #DurkDozer

Over/Under 8 designed runs for Dwayne Lawson

Brian: Over, leading to 800 aneurysms across Hokie Nation. I bet that Lawson will be another transparent running threat because he doesn't really have the trust in his coach to wing the ball around. Everyone will get their hopes up when they see him enter the game, and each time they'll grow a little more furious as he runs quarterback counter after quarterback counter.

Pierson: Under. He played a lot of snaps against Furman and still only managed nine carries (albeit tied for a team-high nine carries). His 51 yards rushing were second best only to Travon McMillian; but if you remove Travon's 63 yard scamper, Lawson was the more consistent rusher last week. I expect to see Lawson on Saturday, but I would like to see them continue to mix in passing plays so his appearances don't become too predictable.

Matchup Over/Under: 49 Points

Brian: Probably under. Foster's defense needs to hold Purdue under 24, because I don't think the offense will score more than that. This reminds me a little bit of some of the Tech/ECU games of the last few years that featured a high-powered Pirate offense, yet still finished 15-10.

Pierson: Under...I think? This number seems stupidly high, leading me to believe Vegas is only considering the Marshall and OSU games. I need to see more from this offense before I start confidently picking moderately high over/unders against teams that have historically been driving the Struggle Bus all the way to Struggleville. Purdue's offense has put up points thus far, but neither team has a defense remotely close to what the Hokies field week-in-and-week-out.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-6)

Brian: I think Tech wins 24-14. They cover, though it'll be close through three quarters. Just close enough to make you think that they'll blow it and send yet another season crashing down, before graciously restoring your sanity.

Pierson: Over. I'm expecting the Hokies to roll into West Lafayette and gain some confidence against a capable but over-matched Purdue squad. I think we see a stronger performance from the defense, and I think Motley continues to build off of last week's strong second half. If Purdue beats this spread, it's going to be a sad nap Saturday for all of us. Ugh.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.