What the Hokies Should Expect From East Carolina QB Blake Kemp

It's no secret that a big question mark going into the Hokies' game on Saturday versus East Carolina will be the play of the Pirates' junior quarterback, Blake Kemp. Kemp (99 of 140, 70.7%, 893 yards, 6 TDs and 2 INTs) showed flashes of reliability against Navy and Florida, but a few costly mistakes on poor throws sunk the Pirates to 1-2.

The first clip below is a good summary of what ECU will probably bring to the table, and how Navy chose to defend it. You'll see ECU (white) spread the field out, generally with 4 or 5 wide receiver sets out of the shotgun. East Carolina's objective on offense is to get the ball out of the Kemp's hands quickly, to receivers running 5 yard stop routes, quick slants, or screens. The Hokies' secondary will need to come to Greenville ready to make tackles in the open field when they meet the Pirates' uptempo, short, pass-centric offense.

Navy chose to defend this formation with a soft cover 2 defense (two high safeties) and nickel personnel (5 defensive backs on the field). I don't think Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster will let the Pirates off that easily. I expect the Dean of DBU, Torrian Gray, to take a more aggressive approach, potentially utilizing more man-to-man cover 1 (one high safety) in his defensive scheme. Florida did this to reasonable success when they played ECU.

The cornerback for Florida at the top of the screen (No. 31) plays man coverage about 6 yards off from ECU wide receiver. At the snap of the ball, the corner doesn't really move as he reads the drop of Kemp. Once he reads the short route and the quick pass, the he breaks on the ball and disrupts the throw for an incompletion. I expect Tech's defensive backs to play as aggressive; relying on reading the drop of Kemp at the snap to help get a jump on the play.

The only trouble with this aggressive approach is the susceptibility of Tech's secondary to the double move. The Hokies have been caught by a few double moves already this season, and I'm sure ECU has taken notice. Tech needs to be on the lookout for plays like this one, which led to a ECU touchdown after the Florida defender fell for the feint.

The disadvantage (from an offensive standpoint) to waiting for a double move route to develop is that it takes time. Kemp tries to get rid of the ball quickly, and there isn't really enough time to reach him for a sack. In that case, the best bet for the defensive line is to get their hands up in the passing lanes and aim for batted balls. But if Kemp is going to try and pump fake and wait for a longer route to develop, the Hokies need to sack him, force a scramble or pressure a throw sooner than Kemp would like. The earlier in the game Tech gets to him, the better chance they have later on of Kemp thinking there's pressure when there really isn't.

In this clip, Kemp actually had a decent pocket and plenty of time to pass. However, as he worked through his progressions he seemed to feel some pressure, and started to drift (which led to the defenders actually being able to pressure him), and then had to throw the ball away. The job of Tech's d-line gets easier when a quarterback feels there is pressure when there really isn't.

A lot of the throws Kemp makes seem almost... scheduled. It appears that he is looking to throw the ball based on a count in his head, rather than reading the field and making a decision. These timing routes can lead to quick completions before the defense has a chance to react, but can also lead to trouble if the defender plays a route differently than expected.

In this next clip, Kemp throws a quick out route assuming the outside defender is running with the fade route. However, the corner at the top of the screen (No. 31) reads the drop, sees the out and makes a break on the ball to intercept it for a pick six. His feet never move at the snap of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised that, based on the number of timing throws I've seen Kemp make, Tech has at least an opportunity for one pick 6 during the game.

Although most of the throws Kemp is called on to make are short routes to the sideline or underneath, he is not afraid to try and fit the ball into small spaces between defenders. On this play, Kemp completes a nice TD pass on a seam route over the middle into a sea of Navy defenders.

However, on a very similar play call towards the end of the game, he throws an interception trying to do nearly the exact same thing.

There is certainly opportunity there for Tech to capitalize on the poor throws Kemp makes (because he will make some). In the two games I scouted, I can remember 6-7 times where it seemed Kemp just threw up a prayer down the sideline. Most of these fell harmlessly incomplete or out of bounds, but again, I wouldn't be surprised if Tech was able to get an interception on an ill-advised, arm-punt, especially if the Hokies can get pressure on Kemp.

Even so, as this next clip shows, Kemp certainly has the ability to drop a ball where it needs to be for his receiver to make the catch (even if it isn't the prettiest form). While I don't expect ECU to be able to string together too many plays like this in a row, a few here and there could certainly help to keep the crowd engaged and the momentum rolling for the Pirates.

As far as running the ball goes, I was not overly impressed in how the Pirates moved the ball on the ground in either of their games that I saw. Their offensive line was susceptible to domination by Florida (see clip below), and their option offense was non-existent.

That said, based on the success of Ohio State (and to some extent, Purdue) running the option against us, I wouldn't be surprised if ECU keeps it in the package. Their backup quarterback, James Summers, is an athletic QB turned WR turned QB who may make an appearance versus the Hokies. Although to date he hasn't shown to be much of a threat, ECU may still switch it up with him in specific packages.

Based on the film I watched, I don't think ECU is the same threat they have been in the past. However, given the history between the Pirates and the Hokies, that doesn't really matter. I still expect a tough game in a challenging environment. I think if Tech can get into Kemp's head with pressure early, make him rethink himself on quick throws, and capitalize on the throws he tries to force, the Hokies will be able to navigate back to Blacksburg with the W.