Halfwits and Wagers: Pittsburgh

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Brian and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

The Hokies open their conference slate on Saturday against perennial nuisance Pittsburgh. The Panthers have a completely different look about them this season. Former Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi replaced head coach Paul Chryst. Quarterback Chad Voytik, who decimated the Hokies on the ground last season, has been supplanted by Tennessee transfer Nate Peterman. Star tailback James Conner, who physically punished the Hokies' defense last season, was lost for the year with a MCL injury during Pitt's season opener against Youngstown State. Hokie Nation is still bruised from last week's loss at East Carolina, and I'm sure the last team they want to face this weekend is Pitt...because, well, Pitt happens.

Is Pitt quickly turning into a dangerous player in the ACC Coastal thanks to their new head coach, or are they struggling to account for the loss of their All-American tailback? Can Tyler Boyd and Nate Peterman make the Pitt offense hum, or will the Hokies be able to neutralize the duo? How will Nards approach the Brenden Motley-led offense? Will the Hokies ever play another game under the sun? So many questions, so little time. On to the lines!

True or False? Nate Peterman and Chad Voytik will each take snaps against the Hokies.

Brian: Probably false. If you're a new coach like Pat Narduzzi, and you make a switch at that position as early as he did it, it's probably because you just don't like the original guy and were never sold on him in the first place. Also, he's made that move too recently to revert back out of fear. It's clear that Narduzzi's named his guy, and I bet he'll stick with him out of stubbornness more than anything else.

Pierson: True. Nards may have named Peterman the starter during the bye week, but if there's one thing we've learned over the last year-plus it's that Bud's bear front is susceptible to mobile quarterbacks. Though Peterman can run the football, he doesn't have the ability of Voytik (which isn't exactly Motley-esque, but it was serviceable enough to gash the Hokies last year for 118 yards). When you factor in the rainy forecast and last week's film, I think you'll see Voytik take the field at least for a snap or two to change things up.

Over/Under 24.5 yards rushing for Nate Peterman.

Brian: Under. I'm not going to say that this guy is a statue, but I'll say he's statuesque. In his game against Iowa, Big Nate rushed for a grand total of -7 yards, one time accidentally falling forward for three (his longest attempt on the day). Actually, all of this makes me wonder if his slightly more mobile counterpart will play more than I initially thought. As you said, Voytik defied logic (and stereotypes) by destroying the Hokies' defense a year ago. Can I go back and change my answer?

Pierson: Under. Like I said, I think we'll see him break the pocket under duress but doubt (and not-so-secretly hope) he runs wild. I expect to see Peterman trying to make plays with his arm and handing the ball off to their numerous tailbacks and Tyler Boyd.

Over/Under 169 yards total rushing for Pitt.

Brian: This is where I feel really bad for James Connor. Had Connor not been hurt, this would have been an easy over for me, but now I'm not sure what to expect. I wouldn't be shocked if they hit the over, just because it's what the Panthers seem to do every time these two meet. Remember Rushel Shell's coming out party at the hands of Foster's 2012 group? And who can forget Pitt's 210 yards on the ground last year? I realize by almost all statistical measures this should be an easy under, but all my expectations go out the window when Tech plays this team.

Pierson: Under. I'm not anticipating a repeat of last weekend's Summers Fest, and I expect to see Bud Foster's defense come out playing with a chip on their shoulder. Remove James Summers' rushing from last week's equation and the Hokies held ECU tailbacks to 2 yards — two — on 16 carries. Pitt's offense has only rushed for 182 total yards in their last two games since running all over Youngstown State in their opener. I expect to see a more stout Virginia Tech run defense this week despite the weather forecast. I think they will be playing for pride for quite a few weeks, and that will push them toward dominance.

True or False? Pitt WR Tyler Boyd will have more yards receiving than all other Panthers combined.

Brian: False, because there's no way the non-Facyson corner will always be on Boyd, which means that someone else will probably be open for a big gain or two.

Pierson: True. In the two games he has played this season — Boyd was suspended for the opener thanks to an off-season DUI — he has done exactly that. Yes, Peterman is more of a thrower than Chad Voytik, but in their last game against Iowa (where Peterman took all but two snaps), Boyd out gained his teammates through the air 131-96 catching 10 of 21 completions. They want to get the ball in Boyd's hands however possible, plain and simple. Two quick notes: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers try and get TE J.P. Holtz (6 catches, 79 yards, 1 TD) involved early and often, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the Pitt QBs throw some picks by forcing balls in Boyd's direction.

Rank 'Em: Most-to-least carries between J.C., Trey, Travon, Shai, Sam, Motley, Dwayne and Durk

Brian: Just when you think we had him figured out, SHAI MCKENZIE GETS 40 CARRIES AND THIS WAS ALL A RUSE.

This is so incredibly frustrating that all I can do is joke about it right now. I don't know anything about football, not a single X or O outside of what I do playing NCAA '13, I'm basically the anti-French. But I do recognize trends, and one trend? The most explosive running backs in Tech history had their best seasons carrying the ball a LOT. 293 attempts for Ryan Williams in 2009, 290 for David Wilson in 2011. Kevin Jones' best year? 281 carries in 2003. Even the corpse of Branden Ore was given the ball 267 times in 2007.

I honestly don't care if it's McMillian, Edmunds or Coleman. I really, don't. JUST GIVE THE BULK TO SOMEONE. (Actually on second hand, please let it be McMillian.)

And to answer the question, everyone gets 6 carries.

Pierson: If Shane's comments earlier this week proved anything, it's that he is terribly afraid of hurting anyone's feelings. It's a telling window into Shane's parenting style and certainly explains a lot about this moment.

Shane probably promised both his daughter and dad a milkshake and only had a dollar on him. I'll go with Motley, Travon, J.C., Trey, Sam, Dwayne and Durk.

Over/Under 159 yards total rushing by the Hokies.

Brian: Who the hell knows, honestly. It all depends on what type of game this is, does Tech have to chase a lead like they did for 90 percent of the game in Greenville? If so, then it'll be episode II of the Motley show. Is this a nip and tuck game that centers around who has the ball more? Then that'll mean they hit the over. I don't think they'll be chasing a lead, so I'm inclined to say they'll hit the over, but if we watch running backs dreadfully run into the backs of their linemen when given the opportunity, I could be sorely mistaken.

Pierson: Over. It's probably more blind faith than anything at this point. As I write this, I feel like we are greatly overstating the impact of the weather on this game and Lefty is going to okie-doke everyone with an air attack. Motley and his receivers will have secretly spent the week throwing greased up footballs in the rain and Kevin Asante has 140 yards receiving. That or it will just be partly cloudy and humid. I give up.

Over/Under 2.5 jet sweeps for Travon McMillian.

Brian: Over. If there's one thing we know about Shane Beamer, it's that he's pretty vulnerable to peer pressure. With people calling for McMillian's playing time increase as much as they have been it only seems logical that he gets on the field a little more. And when he does, odds are that it'll probably be in one of those weird Loeffler jet sweep plays.

While I know many people are pining for him to use his vision as a traditional running back, I just hope he gets the ball in his hands more. That dude is a baller, just biding his time until a game where he puts up 150 total yards.

Pierson: Over. You didn't get the memo? Shane only thinks Travon is effective on jet sweeps. Honestly though I'm with Brian, just get the ball in Travon's hands and let him do some work. I would love to see him in the passing game some more, split out wide to keep defenses from sitting on the sweep action the second he lines up.

True or False? Dadi Nicolas or Ken Ekanem will finally get off the schneid and pick up their first sack of the season.

Brian:True. If we're simply playing the odds, one of these guys will get back there on Saturday. If I had to guess which one, it'd probably be Ekanem. He's been really disruptive so far and has missed a few good chances just due to bad luck. But even if it's Dadi one of them has to get off the schneid, right?

Pierson: True. It has to happen this game, right? I'm starting to feel desperate for them, which can only mean they're getting a little antsy. If and when it does happen, I'll be that guy sitting on his couch doing his best Kevin Garnett impersonation, screaming, "ANYTHING IS POSSIBLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!"

Matchup Over/Under: 51 Points

Brian: This matchup screams fist fight between two drunk dudes who can't get up out of the mud. There will be a lot of swings, and somehow even more misses. I bet the first team to 24 wins this game, and it may even be less than that. The last time these two met in Lane Stadium Tech won with 19 (in a similarly damp environment), which means the bar for a point total could potentially be muuuuuuch lower.

Pierson: Under, because Pitt.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-4.5)

Brian: A 2-2 Virginia Tech team comes home to Blacksburg to play another mediocre school in a potential monsoon. Can you be favored for home field advantage even if there's no one in the stands?

Tech covers. May still lose.

Pierson: Hahahahahahaha I have no idea. This is one of those lines that proves Vegas has absolutely no idea what the Hokies are.

We discuss this topic every year — sometimes multiple times — but last week's game felt like a turning point-type moment for this team. How they bounce back from that embarrassing performance will tell us a lot about this team and be pivotal for the remainder of the season. I get the impression everyone is keenly aware of the importance of this game and the Hokies come out firing. I think I just talked myself into taking the good guys and the points.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.