Halfwits and Wagers: Miami

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Brian and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

Eight days removed from a potential springboard victory over N.C. State, the Hokies head south on Saturday to take on Big East ACC rival Miami. While the Hokies will be looking to maintain positive momentum, the Hurricanes are looking for a bounce-back victory after back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and FSU. Will Michael Brewer (again probable) take some snaps for the Hokies, or will the Brenden Motley show roll on? Can Brad Kaaya single-handedly carry the Canes to victory over the Good Guys? Was last week's feature back rushing attack Shane Beamer's way of punking us? On to the lines!

Over/Under 250 passing yards for Brad Kaaya.

Brian: One of these days we are all going to be reminded that Terrell Edmunds and Mook Reynolds are still incredibly inexperienced, and if anyone on the schedule is going to exploit them, wouldn't it be Kaaya? The secondary did an incredible job against N.C. State last week, but this is probably going to be the best QB they play all season. So give me the over, remember, this guy tore up the Seminoles in Tallahassee even though it the Canes were incredibly one dimensional. He's coming in hot this week.

Pierson: This is a tough one to open with. Kaaya has thrown for more than 250 yards in his last four games and 7 out of his last 9. Miami has a number of solid receiving options, including Joseph Yearby out of the backfield. The Virginia Tech secondary, on the other hand, has yet to give up more than 228 yards in a single game (ECU). I think there are a lot of points to be had in this one, and I expect Miami to ultimately lean on the passing game, so I'm going to ignore the trend and take the over.

Over/Under 1.5 interceptions thrown by Brad Kaaya.

Brian: Also over, because if he throws a lot against these Hokies, he'll throw two. I expect Bud Foster to bring the heat, forcing quick throws and quick decisions from the backfield. Yes, Kaaya's only thrown one this year, but this will be a kind of defense that he hasn't seen yet, and probably won't again. I may be giving Foster and Torrian Gray a little too much credit, but with eight days to prepare I feel confident that they'll have some interesting things up their sleeves.

Pierson: Over, because the Hokies are due. Did you know that Tech hasn't intercepted a Miami quarterback since they picked off (then freshman) Stephen Morris and his gigantic forehead three times in 2010? Kaaya is taking care of the football this season despite tossing the pigskin close to 38 times per game. The Hokies secondary is averaging just over one pick per contest, but hasn't had multiple picks since Purdue. HOW-EVAH, Miami's offensive line is struggling and I'm looking for Dadi to finally convert those QB hurries into sacks. A rattled and pass-happy Kaaya could be ripe for the pickin'.

True or False? A Hurricane rushes for over 100 yards against the Hokies.

Brian: Half of my head and my entire heart says false. This Miami o-line isn't great, and since Kaaya isn't a huge threat to run it means that Tech can stack the box against Joseph Yearby. But then I wake up after having fever dreams of Duke Johnson and Gus Edwards looking like a two-headed buffalo running rampant through the Blacksburg night last year. It's hard to come back from that, and it'll be hard to forget it until they make you. Three quarters of the unit that got mowed over last year is back, and hopefully that have a strong (and angry) memory of that performance. FALSE.

Pierson: False. The Canes were embarrassed a week ago against the Seminoles, managing only 20 yards on the ground. As such, I fully expect OC James Coley to try and get the running game going early in order to relieve the pressure from Kaaya. I think Bud is prepared for this and is less intimidated by mighty mites Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton than bigger backs that have beat up the Tech D in the past.

Over/Under 350 yards of total offense for the Hokies.

Brian: No way. I know this defense is soft, and has been gashed at home by Nebraska and on the road against Florida State and Cincinnati, but even in a good performance last week the Tech offense only gained 358 yards. It'll be raining, it'll be sloppy and I'm expecting a lot of play for A.J. Hughes.

Pierson: Soft Over. The Canes defense has been getting gashed of late, giving 459 yards per game to FBS teams and 500 yards per game to Power 5 opponents. I don't care if we don't know who our quarterback will be in the third quarter. I don't care if Shane Beamer is our running backs coach. We'll figure out a way to scrounge together 350 yards.

True or False? Brenden Motley will take more than 50% of the snaps at quarterback against Miami.

Brian: True. Last week I asked why you'd throw Brewer back behind a line that was basically set on fire against Pittsburgh. Well, we're coming off a week where the line gave up just one sack. Is it something that can be trusted, or is it just a fluke? I refuse to rush Brewer back when his collarbone was practically torn out of his body against Ohio State. Motley's been playing well, only bring Brewer back when he's 100% healthy.

Pierson: True. Until proven otherwise, I will remain in the "let's not ruin Michael Brewer's collarbone for life" camp. If he's 100% healthy, then I'm onboard with seeing what he's got. Two weeks ago, I was singing a different tune; but since Motley has come back down to earth a little, I think Brewer deserves some run. I'm just not so sure we're at the point where Brewer should be given the majority of snaps after being on the shelf while his backup has found success with his arm and his legs.

True or False? Greg Stroman will finish the game with more carries than both J.C. Coleman and Trey Edmunds.

Brian: SO TRUE. Travon McMIllian seems to have a stranglehold on the starting running back job. But you know that Scot Loeffler needs his jet sweeps, and who better to run them than the punt returner you just moved to offense? He still won't have a huge package of routes, but he'll run the ball at least five times. Side note, can we please name that play after Loeffler? I'm leaning towards the "Loeff Sweep", but I can be convinced otherwise.

Pierson: False. Shane can't help himself. Until Travon broke that long touchdown run on Friday night, Shane was probably uncomfortably pacing the sidelines and babbling to himself like an orange and maroon-clad Carl Spackler. A one-man backfield is Shane's gopher, and he'll do everything in his power to blow it up.

Over/Under 0.5 sacks by Dadi Nicolas.

Brian: NOPE. UNDER. DADI WILL NEVER GET A SACK FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE. HE'LL JUST KEEP WHIFFING AFTER COMPLETELY EMBARRASSING OFFENSIVE TACKLES UNTIL THE END OF TIME. THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT A REVERSE JINX.

Pierson: Over. Dadi is playing at home. Dadi is due. That is all.

Matchup Over/Under: 52 Points

Brian: Over, remember last time these two teams played in the rain? Kickers forced fumbles, receivers broke a million tackles and balls were recovered for scores. It was weird, and I'm expecting more weird football this weekend, including at least two flukey touchdowns.

Pierson: Over. I think both of these teams put up some points and a good amount of offense, provided the South Florida weather doesn't get in the way. I don't expect them to blow this number out of the water, but I think it is reachable.

Spread: Miami (-6.5)

Brian: I'm not sure if they win, but Tech definitely covers. I'm almost so confident that it makes me want to break my "never bet on the team you root for" rule (but then it reminds my of taking the Hokies +3 against Stanford in the Orange Bowl...hence the need for the rule). Every year the Hurricanes gear up to play Florida State, every year they get a collective kick in the groin and then every year they look flat the next week. I like Tech to cover, and think it'll be a 50/50 game down the stretch.

Pierson: I might be riding too much of a high after last week's win over the Wolfpack. I also might be putting too much stock in the Canes' last three performances. Honestly, I feel like this line is a little hard on the Hokies and should be closer to Miami (-3). Add in the revenge factor from last year's embarrassing loss at home, and you've got a hungry Hokies team. Because of those factors, I see value in this pick and I'm taking the Hokies and the points.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.