Halfwits and Wagers: Duke

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Pierson and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

Ah yes, Duke week. Once considered the perfect time on the calendar to prove to your significant other that there is life outside of college football. Now? Yet another reason to curse loudly at the heavens while watching the Hokies struggle.

And with that depressing notion, let's get to the lines!

Over/Under 99.5 rushing yards for Travon McMillian.

Brian: This is going to go one of two ways, right? Either Scot Loeffler realizes that his offensive line is only decent at one thing (mashing just enough to provide a crack for McMillian to slip through), and runs the ball accordingly. Or, the Blue Devils stuff the run early, scarring Loeffler into putting the ball in Brewer's hands and letting him wing it 50 times. If the second option sounds improbable, remember: it's been two months since good ole Lefty's been able to use his preferred QB. He may not be able to help himself. I say under.

Pierson: Brewer doesn't have the quicks Motley brings to the table, meaning McMillian no longer benefits from a consistent threat of the QB keep on read plays. The flip side to this is we should see Travon's carries increase to the 15-18 range — unless of course Loeffler decides he wants to shuttle Motley in-and-out to keep the defense on their toes. McMillian has proven that he can find a way to pick up yards, and the ever-present big play ability means even a tough day could end in an impressive final tally. I'm taking the over.

Over/Under 0.5 touchdowns for Isaiah Ford

Brian: Again this may seem easy, considering Ford is currently screaming towards the single season receiving touchdown record (both Antonio Freeman and Andre Davis hold it with nine...Ford has seven.) But Duke's defense is incredible, including giving up the second fewest passing yards in the nation. So if you take the over you're either saying that Ford finds a hole in that staunch defensive unit AND Brewer is able to hit him down field, or he'll get a chance in the red zone (trips to which, I'm assuming, will be few and far between.)

And even if/when the Hokies get inside the 20, are we sure that Brewer will look his way first? He has a different chemistry and different mindset than Motley, and I expect to see Bucky Hodges get more targets than anyone come Saturday. So again, give me the (unfortunate) under.

Pierson: I'm just going to get this out of the way now: Statistically, Duke's defense is fantastic. They've got phenomenal playmakers in the secondary, led by hybrid safety/linebacker Jeremy Cash. But they also have a ton of fresh faces in their front 7 and they've played an incredibly weak opening schedule filled with run-first offenses. So while I've been very impressed by this defense during the three Duke games I have watched this season, I feel confident in saying that the Hokies will be the most balanced offense they will have faced thus far. Does that mean Isaiah Ford catches a touchdown? Who knows. I think this will be a low-scoring game, so I'll take the under. But...BUT...it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he hauls in at least one touchdown reception.

True or False? Michael Brewer will play the entire game at quarterback.

Brian: This dynamic is going to fascinate me the rest of the way. Did y'all see Motley's face on the bench after being replaced against Miami? To say he looked less than pleased would be an understatement. I'm sure that Motley will have a package or two in place, but I don't know how much the coaches will want to use it. Will the game dictate the necessity to mix it up with mobility at the quarterback position? Probably, which means that this will be false. But it wouldn't shock me if we didn't see the now-backup at all, leading to more pained looks on the sideline.

Pierson: False. Loeffler gets the warm-and-fuzzies from having the threat of a QB keep on all of those read plays he likes to call from the shotgun. We saw him trot out Motley for one designed QB run last week after Brewer took over. Those plays frustrate the hell out of me, because 9 out of 10 times it's some form of a run play. Until Lefty calls a play-action pass with some deep routes sprinkled in, defenses will continue to stack the box the second Motley moseys his way into the huddle.

Over/Under 350 yards of total offense for the winner of this game.

Brian: You could have set this at 300, hell, it probably could be at 275 and I'd still consider the under. This game is going to be ugly, with a lot of work for A.J. Hughes and Will Monday.

Speaking of Hughes and Monday, is this the best matchup in conference history between two football players who each feel like they've been at their respective schools for 10 years? If you told me that Hughes extended his eligibility twice to get his doctorate and Monday's been breaking down term precedents like FDR, I'd probably believe you.

Pierson: Under. Against arguably the strongest three teams they have played — Northwestern, Georgia Tech and Boston College — Duke never managed more than 327 yards of total offense. The Hokies offense has played better of late, but has barely managed to eclipse the 350 yard mark in both of the last two contests. We're not entirely sure what comeback kid Michael Brewer's return under center means for this offense's potency, so I'll fall back on my prediction for a low-scoring, defensive struggle.

Over/Under 8.5 times the broadcast brings up the "remarkable" (or similarly astonished adjectives) rebuilding job Cutcliffe has done in Durham

Brian: OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER. They just can't help themselves! Duke used to be bad, and now they're good. It's that simple, but the Blue Devils used to be so bad that someone had to be credited as the patron saint of turnarounds. And Cutcliffe is already so angelic, he ought to just wear a halo on game day as opposed to a hat.

Pierson: Way over, regardless of how the game plays out. When they run through the starting lineups, the announcers will talk about Cut's ability to improve recruiting and reel in former transfer Jeremy Cash. If it's a close, tough battle, the announcers will fawn over how much he has improved the culture. If the Hokies dominate, the announcers will still find ways to work in lines like, "Duke just ran into a hungry team playing with their backs against the wall, but it doesn't change the fact that Coach Cutcliffe has turned this Duke program around into a perennial threat to win the ACC Coastal."

Over/Under: 9.5 times you say to yourself "wait, wait, wait...Duke is ACTUALLY good now?"

Brian: Again, OVER. You see the uniforms, you see the same logo on the helmets, and it just reminds you of all the times Frank Beamer and Bud Foster backed the steam roller out of the garage and just squished the team from Durham into the ground. Did that narrative turn years ago, particularly when the Blue Devils won in Blacksburg in 2013? Yes! Does that matter yet? Absolutely not! They could beat the Hokies by 45 and I'll still have trouble believing my eyes.

Pierson: Under, mostly because I feel like I said it too many times this week at work. I have had co-workers, clients and product reps all ask me this week who the Hokies play, and after mentioning Duke, I found myself repeatedly trying to convince them Duke was good. It's as though I'm laying the groundwork to justify a mediocre or poor showing to each of them next week.

Matchup Over/Under: 43.5 Points

Brian: Under, and probably comically under. Tech is working their starting quarterback back into an offense that hasn't necessarily been great against one of the best defenses in the country. Duke QB Thomas Sirk hasn't thrown for over 200 yards since September 12th against N.C. Central, and he's also the team's leading rusher, but only averaging 53.5 yards a game. If either team breaks 21 I'll be stunned.

Pierson: Under. Since their drubbing of Purdue, the Hokies have averaged just over 22 points per game. Throw out Duke's blowout win over Army (because it's Army) and they only managed a shade under 18 points per game in their previous three over P5 teams. I think this settles around the 37 point mark (20-17 final score). While both offenses are balanced and both teams have solid defenses, I can't help but think this game involves a lot of punts and turnovers.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-2)

Brian: Want to know something even crazier than this line? THAT IT ORIGINALLY OPENED AT TECH -6! In case you're unfamiliar with the terminology, that means that Vegas thought that the Hokies could win by six. It goes to show that no matter how mediocre they've been for the past four years, the Virginia Tech brand still resonates with the general public. Something to keep in mind when the head coaching vacancy eventually opens up. (I'll answer this in the next question.)

Pierson: How? How? I'm so confused by this line. I'm suddenly flooded by thoughts of, "What does Vegas know that I don't? Is a key player on Duke hurt? Was Michael Brewer's surgery to repair his broken collarbone really just a guise for a full-on bionic arm replacement? Are the Hokies getting a 3-point bump simply because there is only a tiny chance of rain this week?" Considering this line opened at VT (-6) and I think this will be a close game, taking the Hokies at (-2) might be a value play. I'll lay the points and take the Hokies.

Yes/No: Virginia Tech will win

Brian: I think Tech wins. It's not because I don't trust Duke, or because I think Michael Brewer is going to play the part of hero. I just think the Hokies are both talented and incredibly inconsistent (which says more about coaching than anything). There is bounce-back potential every week, and I think it happens on Saturday. I bet Frank Beamer and company win a close 17-13 ball game that makes us all feel a little too good before they head up to Chestnut Hill to play the Fighting Addazios at Boston College.

Pierson: Yes, because this team loves to pull at my heartstrings. Two bad losses; resurgent win over NC State. Sloppy loss at The U; inspired win over Duke. Another ugly loss to Boston College...I'm getting ahead of myself here. Go Hokies.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.