Halfwits and Wagers: North Carolina

Hokies-Tar Heels discussion and a slew of fake betting lines.

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Brian and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

Saturday's matchup with ACC Coastal Division leader North Carolina will be one of the most hyped noon kickoffs in Lane Stadium in history. Not only will the Hokies be playing to ensure Frank Beamer closes his career in Lane with a victory, but a win over the No. 12 Tar Heels would extend the Hokies' bowl streak to 23 straight seasons.

The Heels (9-1, 6-0) boast an experienced quarterback, a dangerous running back, four talented wideouts and a bend but don't break defense. Fresh off back-to-back high scoring wins and on the verge of a division title, are the Tar Heels primed for a letdown game?

After being thoroughly embarrassed by Steve Addazio's mustache three weeks ago, Brian was able to right the ship and regain his gambling edge last week. Can he carry his new-found luck down the stretch, or will he get boat raced again by Pierson much the same way Larry Fedora's high octane offense stomped Duke? On to the lines!

True/False: Lane Stadium will be sold out on Saturday afternoon.

Brian: Technically true. The Virginia Tech ticket office will have sold every available seat prior to kickoff on Saturday. Will it look that full? No. With students on their Thanksgiving break, the upper seats in the South End Zone will look more desolate than usual and the people who're supposed to sit in the upper-east will make their way to the bleachers in the north.

Pierson: True, but total butts-in-the-seats may differ from tickets sold. With a lot of students reportedly heading home early for fall break, there's a high probability that the student sections will be less dense on Saturday. If that prediction holds, it will be up to the old guard — who have actually witnessed Beamer at his coaching best — to fill Lane.

Over/Under 225 passing yards for Marquise Williams.

Brian: Over. The most terrifying thing about the Heels is the sheer amount of talent they have at the skill positions. Williams can both avoid Brandon Facyson entirely and hit this over with ease. He could even avoid both Facyson and the underrated Terrell Edmunds and still flirt with 250 yards. I already have nightmares of Mook Reynolds and Greg Stroman desperately chasing their men through the secondary.

Pierson: Over. Though the Hokies have only allowed opponents to eclipse this mark three times all season, UNC boasts arguably the most talented group of wideouts on the VT schedule. The youth in the Hokies secondary has stepped up thus far, but the group has also been prone to costly breakdowns. The Heels' top four wideouts — Mack Hollins, Ryan Switzer, Quinshad Davis and Bug Howard — are all experienced and athletic, creating dangerous matchups throughout the secondary (only Wes Welker/Julian Edelman clone Ryan Switzer is shorter than 6-4). I see this area as the Heels' biggest matchup advantage and expect them to attack it early.

Over/Under 195 yards rushing for the UNC offense.

Brian: Under, because the best way for the Heels to win is through the air. If anyone comes out fired up it'll be the unit with three seniors (the line), and they'll be able to slow Elijah Hood down. What could be the turning point, however, is Williams himself, who turned in a 101-yard performance last week. Should he bust loose again, stay as far away from this line as you possibly can.

Pierson: Under. UNC has topped 195 yards rushing in 7 out of 10 games, but only two of their opponents currently rank in the top 50 nationally in rushing defense (Pitt and Duke). Despite ranking No. 64 against the run, (NEWS FLASH!) the Hokies have predominantly struggled defending running quarterbacks. UNC quarterback Marquise Williams has three 100-yard games in 2015, so he absolutely has to be on Bud Foster's radar along with tailback Elijah Hood. As I noted above, I expect Fedora to attack the Tech secondary and continue his odd strategy of forgetting about his talented and underutilized running game.

Over/Under 440 yards total offense for the Tar Heels.

Brian: This line seems so high!

(Googles their total yardage against Duke.)

(Sees that it was over 700.)

(Winces.)

Yeah, it'll probably be over. Remember, Ohio State put up 572 way back on Labor Day and this is the best offense the Hokies have seen since then.

Pierson: As strange as this sounds, the Hokies defense has only given up more than 440 yards of total offense twice this season — 572 yards in the opener against Ohio State and 449 in the 4 OT loss to Duke. Buuuuuuuuuuut, Carolina isn't exactly your average offense. They've only been held below 440 yards twice this season, and one of those games was against Georgia Tech, and a season-low 57 plays from scrimmage. I'll take the over, if only because it's hard to bet against such a potent offense.

Parlay Time! Travon McMillian O/U 24.5 carries and O/U 119 yards rushing.

Brian: I like the over on both, so I'd make this bet in a second. The Hokies must play ball control on offense, if only to let the defense breathe between rounds against the Carolina O. McMillian will play a big part in keeping the clock moving, which means he'll hopefully have close to 30 carries, and if he's going to run that many times I'm not sure the Tar Heel front seven is good enough to hold him under 120. Remember, this team gave up a career-high 117 yards to Smoke Mizzell less than a month ago.

(Side note with next week in mind: what can we call Taquan Mizzell that's the opposite of "smoke"? His current nickname implies he's hard to touch, which is just...not true. What's both overrated and really easy to bring down? Taquan "Notre Dame" Mizzell? I'll workshop it.)

Pierson: You have to bet the over on both of these, right? UNC ranks No. 109 nationally against the run, giving up over 206 yards per game. Travon is a machine and the coaching staff has taken notice. Three straight games of 24 carries or more, and he's topped 96 yards rushing six times this season. Consider this: Despite double-digit carries in only 5 games, Travon's season rushing total stands at 800 yards, making a 1,000 yard season well within reach. Brian and I may have been way off on our regular season record predictions, but we absolutely nailed it when it came to Travon's potential impact in 2015.

Over/Under 1.5 turnovers forced by the Virginia Tech defense.

Brian: I lean towards the over, if only for the simple fact that the Heels may run a lot of plays when they hit the field. But then I looked up their turnover numbers and was astonished to see they haven't had one since the Virginia game in late October. Pitt didn't force one, and the only times Duke and Miami got the ball back were when the Heels kicked off after a touchdown. Needless to say, not quite the trend I wanted to support my bet, but I'll stick with it. My thinking is Foster will throw things at Williams to force a wrong read or two, and Tech gets an interception and a fumble recovery.

Pierson: Given the circumstances and how dynamic the UNC defense is, I fully expect a ramped up Lunch Pail Defense that will be disruptive and force some Tar Heel miscues. Bud's bunch will be playing Hungry Hungry Hippo and will gobble up any loose or errant balls. The Heels average less than one giveaway per game, good for No. 6 nationally. The Hokies defense has been one of the best in the nation forcing turnovers (two per game, tied for No. 16 in the country). If we split the baby here, we end up with a number slightly under 1.5. Since we can't have 1.45 turnovers, I'll round up to two and take the over.

#HotTake Alert! True/False: The Larry Fedora-to-Blacksburg rumor is only being floated to help force a pay raise from UNC.

Brian: I've never understood this argument/conspiracy. What you're saying is it's implausible for a coach at a basketball school who's rebuilt an entire program slammed with the sanctions of his predecessor to want to leave? Especially when his fans STILL don't fully show up, despite this season's success? What part of that seems fake?

Now I do understand the game within the game on the coaching carousel, and after a year like this one Fedora would be an idiot to not want a raise. But just because he wants a raise from his current school doesn't mean he's automatically recusing himself from any other searches. If Whit Babcock called on Sunday, I think Larry and his agent would answer the phone.

Pierson: Can I respond, "Both?" I think this is a rock-solid move by Fedora's agent on the heels of his best season to-date in Chapel Hill, and on the brink of potential NCAA sanctions. Fedora-to-anywhere is a scary scenario for UNC, given their 2015 success and solid recruiting. The ACC Coastal is a clusterf--- with a minimum of three off-season coaching vacancies (if you count UVa), providing the Tar Heels with a legitimate shot at multiple ACC Championship Game appearances. For Fedora, best case scenario is a well-paid new gig at a solid program safe from sanctions. Worst case: UNC panics at yet another coaching change with looming sanctions and overpays Fedora to stay. Either way, Larry gets paid, and even under the worst case scenario could still bolt while his stock is high.

Matchup Over/Under: 61.5 Points

Brian: This may lose me money, but I love the under. Carolina's scored points at will over the last two weeks, but I have a hard time seeing them put up more than 35-38 on Bud's group. I likewise can't see more than 24-28 for Michael Brewer and company. Now obviously if both teams max out on those numbers they'll go over, but the odds of them both doing it? Not as likely. Give me the under and I may put a little money on it.

(Quick story: I won my parlay last week! UVA +14, Oklahoma +3 and Pittsburgh +4 won for me, so I'm not quite the sham I seemed!)

(Quick follow up: No, you're right, I'm still a sham.)

Pierson: Conventional wisdom tells me to take the over. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a 35-28 game when all is said and done, especially given the point totals UNC has been dropping of late and how steady the Hokies offense has been since the return of Michael Brewer. But I'm going to try and look past the Heels' last two games, which saw them drop 125 combined points on Duke and Miami. We know that both defenses are talented, but Duke is absolutely reeling and Miami has been gashed a number of times this season thanks to an inconsistent unit.

The Hokies have had some frustrating performances this year, but they've actually had a solid defensive season (good enough for No. 22 in the nation in total defense). Sure, this year's defense has lacked the sex appeal of previous teams that racked up interceptions and sacks seemingly at-will. But they've beared down as the season has worn on and been tough to beat since some early season stumbles. I'm taking the under.

Spread: North Carolina (-6.5)

Brian: My heart says the Hokies cover and outright win on a game fueled by the emotions of the day. But my head says those same emotions will be too much for this relatively young team to handle, and Carolina wins by two touchdowns. I don't want to be right, but a 13-15 point UNC win seems like the most realistic outcome.

Pierson: The Hokies are 2-0 when I take them outright, but this is a more challenging line. I think the setting and the atmosphere are going to loom large and have a significant impact on the game, fueling the Hokies and creating challenges for the Tar Heels. The key will be the Hokies ability to establish the run and control the clock. If they can limit the UNC offense to less than 60 plays from scrimmage, they will greatly increase their odds to come away with the victory.

Tech's propensity for an ill-timed lapse could quickly undo a lot of hard work on defense, which could easily turn a close game into an easy UNC victory. I going to ride the hot hand and take the Hokies OUTRIGHT, because #ThanksFrank.

Over/Under 0.5 tears Frank will shed on camera on Saturday.

Brian: Over, but not by as much as you'd think. There'll be two moments after the final whistle that have the chance to get the waterworks going. The first is the obvious embrace from Shane, his one true legacy in both this world and the coaching profession. But if I had to guess, the younger Beamer will be the one to get more emotional in that interaction.

But I think Frank'll choke up at whatever Bud says to him. Those two guys have been together for most of Bud's adult life, and Beamer has watched him grow into the tremendous defensive coordinator he is today. They've stood next to each other during every single moment of Hokie football over the last 20 years, and when things finally come to an end it'll hit both of them. Hell, even if they don't cry I definitely will.

Pierson: Gosh, I'm fighting back tears as I write this. Honestly, the fact that this will be the last time we see Frank coaching on the sideline in Lane is really starting to hit me as I type this response. Frank may be a football coach, but first and foremost he is a family man. A father, a grandfather and a husband. He has been a father figure to his players, and both friend and mentor to those he has coached with and against. The impact that he has had on the college game; Virginia Tech, Blacksburg and the New River Valley; on the lives of so many young men; and on you and me is immeasurable. In a game filled with egos, big personalities and tons of money, Frank has been a pillar of the community and everlastingly selfless. He is a man of incredible character and epitomizes the university motto Ut Prosim.

With current and past players and coaches by his side, and the fans cheering — win or lose — when the clock hits zero, I suspect the confluence of memories and emotions will be too difficult to hold back. For Frank. For you. For me. I'll take a big, teary "over."

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.

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Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

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"Nope, launch him into the sun and fart on him on the way up"
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Get your ass on the ground and we'll party

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