(Disclaimer: Any mention of win/loss records in this thread is strictly conference records.)
Normally by this time of year, I'm already figuring out who needs what help to get to the ACCCG. Obviously, normal is thrown out the window this year. We might not even be able to get the usual circles of suck.
I think trying to figure out exactly who is eliminated from ACCCG contention will get trickier than usual due to the "top 2 teams" rule and lack of complete round robin (like the Big 12). The biggest worry is that we'll have multiple teams at the top of the standings with the same record who didn't play each other. I think that in typical #goacc fashion, we'll be fearing such an outcome in mid-November and fretting about the fifth tiebreaker in the list, only for everything to work itself out by the final regular season game.
But wait, the ACC actually came up with tiebreaker procedures! They also developed contingency plans in case teams are unable to play 10 conference games.
Basically, a team's total number of conference games has to be within one of the average.
Example -- let's say Notre Dame misses 5 games, and ends the season 5-0. Those other five teams would only have 9 conference games. The average number of conference games would be 9.33 (rounded down to 9). Even with a win percentage of 1.000, ND wouldn't be eligible for the ACCCG due to being 4 games under the average.
Also, if there is an unequal total number of conference games played among teams tied in the loss column, head-to-head takes precedence over win percentage.
Example (if I'm interpreting correctly) -- If 8-1 VT beats 9-1 Clemson during the season, VT's win percentage would be .888, while Clemson would be .900. VT would be higher in the standings than Clemson.
Currently, the ACC breaks down nicely into 3 groups of 5 teams right now.
Undefeated: Clemson, Miami, VT, UNC, and Notre Dame
1-loss: NC State, Pitt, BC, uva, GT
2+ losses: Syracuse, FSU, Louisville, WF, Duke (Syracuse is 1-2, Duke is 0-4, the rest are 0-2)
By the end of next week, at least two teams will fall from the undefeated ranks due to Miami at Clemson and VT at UNC.
Is it possible to have two undefeated teams going into the ACCCG? Yes, but only three scenarios:
-Clemson/UNC
-Miami/ND
-VT/ND
Due to schedules, the ACC will not have a case of three undefeated teams at the end of the regular season. Now, a gaggle of 1-loss teams is a completely different story, but we'll save that concern for when it's likely to be an issue.
Comments
Good stuff. GT has 2 losses, not 1. Two of the one loss teams will have an additional one after next week since NC State plays LOLUVA and Pitt plays BC.
Yes, but as I mentioned at the top of the post, I'm only looking at conference records, since the non-conference game has no bearing on the ACCCG.
My bad, I forgot anybody had played their out of conference opponent yet. Thanks for putting it all together!
Man it's going to be fun beating ND for the ACC title.
"uva" lol...
As expected, this weekend provided some separation. We're down to three undefeated teams: Clemson, UNC, Notre Dame.
There is now only one possible ACCCG undefeated matchup: Clemson vs. UNC. Notre Dame would have to lose to both of those teams for that to happen.
Currently, I would say the most likely projection at this time for the ACCCG is Clemson vs. the UNC/ND winner. Everyone else requires extra help.
There are five teams with one loss: NC State, Miami, VT, BC, GT. NC State has 3 wins, the rest have 2.
Obviously, VT still has a chance to make the title game. In a normal year, we would be in the "needs help" category and would need UNC to lose twice. This year, it's not so simple.
If VT wins out and ends up 9-1 in conference, that would knock all of the current 1-loss teams to 2 losses, except NC State, but we have the tiebreaker. That would also give Clemson a loss, with VT having that tiebreaker.
There is a possibility of a 4-way tie of 1-loss teams between VT, Clemson, Notre Dame, and UNC. But in that scenario, we would have a round robin of head-to-head tiebreakers. VT over Clemson over ND over UNC over VT.
Now, a more likely scenario is that VT loses to Clemson and ends up 8-2. Again, that knocks all of the 1-loss teams down to 2 losses, and we would have all of the tiebreakers. NC State could still have only 1 loss, but they do have UNC on the schedule. We would need NC State to lose a game, and some combination of multiple losses from UNC, ND, or Clemson.
It looks like our main rooting interests are:
-whoever is playing uva
-whoever is playing UNC
-NC State (although it might help us out if they lose one game as long as it's not UNC)
It's a good thing that uva plays UNC on Halloween, as we'll probably be wanting UNC to lose, so it gives us an excuse to be rooting for the "wrong" team.
The ACC...Clemson and everyone else!
We won't have two undefeated teams in the ACCCG, since the only two teams left now are Clemson and ND, and they play during the season.
But that opens it up for the 1-loss teams: NC State, UNC, Miami, VT.
The two loss teams still have some life, seeing as how some of the 1-loss teams have to play Clemson: BC, WF, GT. (Well, maybe not...)
It's a little murkier to make a projection for who will face Clemson in the ACCCG.
VT chances of getting in?
-If we win out, go 9-1, which means beating Clemson...It could create a pool of 1-loss teams made up of Clemson, VT, NC State, and ND or UNC. ND beating UNC would probably get us in the game.
-If we lose to Clemson and go 8-2, we still need NC State to lose a game somewhere (preferably not the one against UNC)
Duke is 1-5, which means best case scenario is getting a .500 win percentage. For them to reach the ACCCG, every other team in the ACC will have to be .500 or worse. I don't even think that's mathematically possible, but I'm also not simulating wins and losses to figure that out. One more loss and/or a couple of wins by Clemson and NC State should make that easy.
Rooting interests for 10/24 to open up the top of the ACC:
-Syracuse over Clemson
-uva over Miami (I know, uva sucks and all that, but standings...)
-NC State over UNC (we definitely need UNC to lose a game so we can get ahead of them in the standings. But, an NC State loss wouldn't be completely bad, as it would give us some wiggle room if we lose again.)
To quote the great Al Davis, "Just win, baby."
UNC needs to lose two more assuming we lose to Clemson (our D might give up 100 points in that game)
Well then we should beat Clemson.
But if UNC ends with 2 losses and we end with 2 losses, I'm pretty sure there is a good chance that a ND or Miami or some other team also ends with 2 losses. Therefore, UNC could lose just 1 more game (e.g. ND), and we could end up in a 3-way tie.
So that brings up the all important question of tiebreaker rules. Anyone have any idea what they are this year!? Are they going to use Division record even though we aren't playing with divisions this year? I don't think they can because we don't play GT for instance and they are in the Coastal with us in a regular season. So the tiebreaker must go to point differential or AP ranking or something like that.
Tiebreaker procedures are linked in the main post.
Reading, it'll get after ya
ESPN talking heads have us in the Pinstripe Bowl vs Indiana and the Holiday Bowl vs Arizona State!
As I've said before, those projections are crap even in normal years. The guys doing it don't pay attention to a lot of the intangibles, such as bowls preferring not to take the same team in consecutive years or how certain conferences might have a pecking order.
This year, those projections are even more worthless. With the ACC changing their structure and not doing rankings or tiers, every team being bowl eligible, and just general covid chaos, no one knows shit about what the bowls are going to do.
We get to play in TWO bowls this year? 2020 is weird!
Week 8 update
Since we're all playing 10 conference games, I'll just group teams by maximum winning percentage.
Still at 100%, we have Clemson and Notre Dame.
90% is UNC and Miami. Technically, UNC still controls their destiny, because if they win out, they would have a head-to-head over Notre Dame.
The current projected ACCCG matchup would be Clemson vs. the ND/UNC winner.
The 80% group includes NC State, Boston College, VT, and Wake. Wake has a loss to Clemson, while the rest have a loss to UNC.
GT has a max percentage of 70%, Duke has 50%, and everyone else has 60%. All of those teams currently have 2 wins or fewer.
Duke plays out of conference next week, but they can be eliminated if Clemson and Notre Dame both win. Clemson would have 6 wins, which would guarantee that Duke cannot reach the #1 seed. Notre Dame would get win #5, which means even in a worst case scenario of losing out and Duke winning out would still keep ND ahead of them due to head-to-head.
Louisville will be eliminated with a loss and the same Clemson/ND combo, for the same reasons as Duke.
It's getting too late at night to play out scenarios, but I can tell that these teams will be mathematically unable to achieve the #1 seed if they lose next weekend while Clemson wins: Duke, Louisville, uva, Syracuse. FSU and Pitt would be in that group if they played next week.
Rooting interests for Halloween:
Wake Forest over Syracuse - this would put WF behind us, and nullify the tiebreaker for now.(EDITED to actually say what I meant....)Syracuse over Wake Forest - this would put WF behind us, and nullify the tiebreaker for now.
VT over Louisville - Never root against VT.
uva over UNC - ugh, I hate typing anything like this, but uva is almost out of contention, while we need UNC to get knocked down.
The BC/Clemson and GT/ND games almost don't matter, but if the visitors win, it would make the conference more interesting.
Surely you mean "Syracuse over Wake". Not that it really matters, since we aren't winning out anyway.
Yup...I'm gonna blame all the kids running around my house on a Sunday morning while I'm trying to type it up.
Currently in the 4 team logjam of 2 loss teams. ACC title still in sight. Gotta "root" for the Domers the rest of the way.
Gonna need some luck, and pull off two upsets, minimum. We would either be in a 3 team tie with Clemson and Miami, which we win if we can beat em, or sole 2 loss team.
Gotta go 1-0 next week OOC.
Two undefeated teams in the ACC meet up next week: Clemson (6-0) and Notre Dame (5-0). Right now, that's still the projected ACCCG matchup, regardless of the outcome.
Miami is hovering right them with 1 loss.
Two loss teams are UNC, VT, NC State, and Wake Forest. Among that group, we don't look too great, as we're 1-2 against the others. But, UNC plays WF in two weeks, knocking at least one 2-loss team down.
We finally had some teams officially get knocked out of contention this week: Duke and Louisville. Both teams are 1-5 and lost to Notre Dame. So even in their best case scenario of winning out and ND losing out, ND would still be ahead of them in the standings.
There are some teams who are out of contention for the #1 seed, but still have a slight hope at the #2 seed. uva and GT both have a 2-4 record, but both lost to Clemson. Their best case scenario of winning out and Clemson losing out to each end at 6-4 would give the tiebreaker to Clemson. Syracuse is 1-5 and definitely can't overcome Clemson's 6 wins, but maybe 5-5 could keep them in play if there's a total collapse in the ACC.
Rooting interests for week 10:
-NC State over Miami on Friday. Drops Miami down to 2 losses and opens the race up.
-Duke over UNC. Anything to drop the Tarheels down.
-Louisville over uva. Duh.
I'm not sure if BC/Syracuse or Pitt/FSU will matter for us right now. Loser of Pitt/FSU will be out of contention.
And the big one - Clemson at Notre Dame. I'm not sure which option is better. If you assume that Clemson is going to run away with the conference at be in the ACCCG regardless, might as well have them win to start knocking ND down. But I'm pretty sure VT's only chance at the title game at this point is with no more losses, and if we could have a tiebreaker that actually matters....
We need to root for a ND win next week (with Lawrence already declared out for the ND game). That will leave us only needing one more UNC loss for us to control our own destiny to an ACC championship game against ND if we can win out.
VT going on an end of season hot streak and winning out is not an unprecedented thing, and it is 2020, so who knows? I could enjoy that kind of bandwagon ride.
How to get to the ACCCG:
VT: Win out, nuff said. 8-2
ND: Win out, nuff said. 9-0
Clemson: Lose to ND without Lawrence, Lose to VT: 8-2, lose tie-breaker to the Hokies
Miami: Lose to VT: 8-2, lose tie-breaker to the Hokies
UNC: Lose to ND: 7-3.
WF: Lose to ND: 7-3
That might be the easiest way, but this is the ACC.
(Although that exact scenario can't happen, because UNC and WF play each other.)
By ND winning out, their h2h is irrelevant to our title run
We can also still make it if Clemson beats ND Saturday, but ND would need to lose twice, UNC would need to drop another (preferably bear Wake and lose to Miami), and we would need to still win out. A tall task either way, but ND and us winning out would be the cleanest path.
Yeah, I'm looking at the different possibilities for ACCCG.
We need at least five of these teams to end up behind us in the standings: Clemson, ND, Miami, UNC, NC State, WF. We already have h2h over NC State, so we don't have to worry about them. Beating Miami would give us h2h, so we don't really care about the rest of their games. UNC and Wake each need at least one more loss, which the loser of that matchup will get.
Miami's remaining schedule is NC State, VT, GT, WF, UNC. So if they win out except for our game, they pretty much take care of most of our competition.
A VT vs. Clemson game would probably mean we win out, and Clemson wins out except for us. That still requires ND to lose another game or two.
I don't want to try to figure out what would happen if ND and VT both end up with 2 losses with no h2h and fighting for the #2 seed.
An interesting exercise is to figure out the quickest path for VT to control their own destiny:
-ND over Clemson on Saturday (puts Clemson down to 1-loss, and then VT can add a 2nd)
-Duke over UNC on Saturday (puts UNC down to 3 losses)
-UNC over Wake on 11/14 (drops WF down to 3 losses)
And then by winning out, VT can drop extra losses on Clemson and Miami to either knock them out to get tiebreakers, while maintaining a tiebreaker over NC State. I also realize how highly unlikely this scenario is.
If anyone is curious, even though we don't have a Coastal division this year, we still have not achieved the divisional circle of suck. I know not everyone plays each other (most notable, no VT/GT game this year), but that shouldn't stop the division from doing its thing.
The main factors keeping the circle from happening so far is that VT's only Coastal win is over Duke, and Duke's only ACC win is over Syracuse.
since UVA beat UNC, and UNC beat us .... it's a lock we beat UVA!
ACCCG projection is still Clemson/Notre Dame, unless we're still waiting on a review of a review. With both of those teams having 6 wins, any team with 5 or more losses is out of contention: Louisville, FSU, Duke, Syracuse.
I'm pretty sure that GT and uva (both 2-4) are out, because even in a extreme scenario of GT and/or uva winning out and Clemson and Notre Dame both losing out to all end at 6-4, Clemson has h2h over GT and uva, while ND has the tiebreaker over Clemson.
Pitt (3-4) only has a shot at the #2 seed. If ND, Clemson, and Pitt all go 6-4, ND has tiebreakers over both, while Pitt would have h2h over Clemson. Their next loss or a Clemson win knocks them out.
ND and Clemson both control their own destiny.
Miami can control their destiny with either 1 Clemson loss or 2 ND losses.
UNC can control with an extra ND or Clemson loss. They might need two Clemson losses to play it safe, depending on tiebreakers.
Beyond that, it's too early to be coming up with too many scenarios for the other teams.
I know at this point nobody cares because of how hilariously unlikely it seems, but we would control our destiny with a loss by both UNC and Wake.
I've been taking a break from this place the last couple of weeks, because I already had enough negative feelings about the last few games, and didn't want to keep them front and center.
But I've still been trying to keep track of the conference races. And I'm about ready to throw the towel in. The cancellations and postponements are really throwing monkey wrenches into the whole process. If for nothing else, we often get to a point in the season where a division could be decided (or at least narrowed down), but then the most pivotal team usually has a bye week back-to-back with a non-conference game. We still have that going on, but with the extra surprise bye weeks thrown in.
Anyway, back to the ACC, it got a lot clearer when I was reminded that Miami and UNC have yet to play, which means one of those two teams will get to 7 wins. Notre Dame is already at 7 wins. That means that any team with 4 or more losses is out.
Still in contention:
Notre Dame (7-0)
Clemson (6-1) - lost to Notre Dame
Miami (6-1) - lost to Clemson, yet to play UNC and Wake
UNC (6-2) - yet to play Notre Dame and Miami, does not play Clemson
Maybe in contention:
NC State (5-3) - lost to UNC and Miami, does not play ND or Clemson
I'm honestly not sure if they could grab a #2 seed with tiebreakers in certain situations.
Only in contention for the #2 seed, if at all:
Wake Forest (3-3) - will have to play the win percentage game, as they had a game cancelled.
Now, it would be completely on brand for 2020 and #goacc for a rash of cancellations to adjust the average number of games and win percentages, allowing teams currently thought to be out of contention to suddenly jump back in the race.
Rooting guide for Thanksgiving:
-Notre Dame over UNC and Clemson over Pitt, because I just want to see the wheel stop turning soon, and I want to see those teams lose a lot anyway.
-FSU over uva because fuck them, and they need to return to their tradition of losing on Thanksgiving weekend.
I can see Pitt pull off an upset.
I'm itching for a Miami vs Notre Dame ACCCG. I hate both teams, but it would be fun to watch.
To get there, Clemson would either have to lose another game (and they only have Pitt, us, and a potentially rescheduled FSU left) or end up with at least 2 games cancelled. One of those is significantly more likely than the other, and it certainly still isn't very likely.
Due to the new 9 game ACC rule ND has already clinched a spot in the championship and Clemson will clinch with a win over us. The rule change is to let both teams have a rest week before the game
Even the ACC is done with the wheel.
Makes sense. ACC probably didn't want to deal with FSU's issues right now. And this gives them 12/12 as a make up date for any of this weekend's games.
Might as well put the final result up on this thread.
Notre Dame (9-0) vs. Clemson (8-1).
Other than Miami (7-1), everyone else has 3 or more losses, so no way for anyone else to make their way into top 2.
If the ACC hadn't cancelled the 10th games for ND and Clemson....
Notre Dame would have clinched their spot this weekend with a win anyway.
Then it would have come down to Clemson and Miami. There's no way Miami was getting to 10 games due to lack of available weeks. So their best record would be 8-1, and would stay behind Clemson due to h2h. The only chance Miami would have would be for Clemson to end up at 8-2, and sneak ahead on win percentage.
At least by losing to Clemson, we stuck it to Da []_[] and crushed their shot at the ACCG.
Would have rather stuck it to them by, you know, beating them.
Even Herbie said that we should have beat Miami, because that's how things usually play out.
Have a huge Hurricane fan friend and before the game he said his hate for Tech outweighs his desire at a shot at the ACCCG and then Go Clemson!!
Had hopes before the half of sticking it in his ear but.....
Of course, if you think the ACC can be a mess at times, they have nothing on the shitshow that the Pac-12 and (to a lesser extent) the Big Ten are putting on.
In the Pac-12, they have the potential for two undefeated teams in the South that won't play each other - USC and Colorado. I hate to imagine the tiebreakers they'll be looking at there. Up in the North, it could come down to the winner of Washington/Oregon. But if that game gets cancelled, Washington State could sneak into the mix.
Used to be that one of the greatest things about college football was that ties couldn't happen, so there were always winners and losers. Now we have to worry about game cancellations.
But probably the ultimate case of gamesmanship will happen with the Ohio State/Michigan game.
The only thing OSU needs to clinch their division is to play that game. Even if they lose, they still win the division due to a h2h over Indiana.
If the game gets cancelled, OSU is disqualified from the Big Ten title game due to not playing enough games, so Indiana would go. But of course, OSU would still be right in the thick of the CFP race. And they would still be playing a game on 12/19, as part of the Big Ten's "plus one" schedule.
But Michigan is the one with COVID issues right now. And I wouldn't put it past Harbaugh to extend any issues they have. Here are his options:
-play OSU and lose. OSU wins the division and Harbaugh is still 0-fer.
-play OSU and win. OSU still wins the division, although he might hurt their CFP chances.
-don't play. OSU gets disqualified, and Harbaugh's personal record against OSU isn't just zero and however years he's been Michigan's coach.
OSU's CFP chances are probably independent of their Big Ten chances, and they probably have their eyes on that larger prize. I don't know if a forfeit will count differently than a cancellation, but if OSU just straight up forfeits and it counts like the game was played, they win the division.
Honestly, this is a great year to not be a conference commissioner or a member of the CFP committee.
So the Washington State/USC game made things a little easier in the north, as Wazzu lost.
That means that Washington at Oregon is a winner-take-all. If the game gets cancelled, Washington clinches the division.
The Pac-12 South is still a hot mess, with USC and Colorado both undefeated, and staring down a mess if they both win next week.
If one of those teams lose, then the other clinches the division. If they both lose, USC would clinch (4-1 or 80% would beat out 3-1 or 75%).