ACC Wheel of Destiny 2020

(Disclaimer: Any mention of win/loss records in this thread is strictly conference records.)

Normally by this time of year, I'm already figuring out who needs what help to get to the ACCCG. Obviously, normal is thrown out the window this year. We might not even be able to get the usual circles of suck.

I think trying to figure out exactly who is eliminated from ACCCG contention will get trickier than usual due to the "top 2 teams" rule and lack of complete round robin (like the Big 12). The biggest worry is that we'll have multiple teams at the top of the standings with the same record who didn't play each other. I think that in typical #goacc fashion, we'll be fearing such an outcome in mid-November and fretting about the fifth tiebreaker in the list, only for everything to work itself out by the final regular season game.

But wait, the ACC actually came up with tiebreaker procedures! They also developed contingency plans in case teams are unable to play 10 conference games.

Basically, a team's total number of conference games has to be within one of the average.

Example -- let's say Notre Dame misses 5 games, and ends the season 5-0. Those other five teams would only have 9 conference games. The average number of conference games would be 9.33 (rounded down to 9). Even with a win percentage of 1.000, ND wouldn't be eligible for the ACCCG due to being 4 games under the average.

Also, if there is an unequal total number of conference games played among teams tied in the loss column, head-to-head takes precedence over win percentage.

Example (if I'm interpreting correctly) -- If 8-1 VT beats 9-1 Clemson during the season, VT's win percentage would be .888, while Clemson would be .900. VT would be higher in the standings than Clemson.

Currently, the ACC breaks down nicely into 3 groups of 5 teams right now.
Undefeated: Clemson, Miami, VT, UNC, and Notre Dame
1-loss: NC State, Pitt, BC, uva, GT
2+ losses: Syracuse, FSU, Louisville, WF, Duke (Syracuse is 1-2, Duke is 0-4, the rest are 0-2)

By the end of next week, at least two teams will fall from the undefeated ranks due to Miami at Clemson and VT at UNC.

Is it possible to have two undefeated teams going into the ACCCG? Yes, but only three scenarios:
-Clemson/UNC
-Miami/ND
-VT/ND

Due to schedules, the ACC will not have a case of three undefeated teams at the end of the regular season. Now, a gaggle of 1-loss teams is a completely different story, but we'll save that concern for when it's likely to be an issue.

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Comments

Good stuff. GT has 2 losses, not 1. Two of the one loss teams will have an additional one after next week since NC State plays LOLUVA and Pitt plays BC.

GT has 2 losses, not 1.

Yes, but as I mentioned at the top of the post, I'm only looking at conference records, since the non-conference game has no bearing on the ACCCG.

My bad, I forgot anybody had played their out of conference opponent yet. Thanks for putting it all together!

Man it's going to be fun beating ND for the ACC title.

"uva" lol...

"Vick, dashing back . . . here he comes again . . . Electrifying . . . and have you ever seen anything like this?"

As expected, this weekend provided some separation. We're down to three undefeated teams: Clemson, UNC, Notre Dame.

There is now only one possible ACCCG undefeated matchup: Clemson vs. UNC. Notre Dame would have to lose to both of those teams for that to happen.

Currently, I would say the most likely projection at this time for the ACCCG is Clemson vs. the UNC/ND winner. Everyone else requires extra help.

There are five teams with one loss: NC State, Miami, VT, BC, GT. NC State has 3 wins, the rest have 2.

Obviously, VT still has a chance to make the title game. In a normal year, we would be in the "needs help" category and would need UNC to lose twice. This year, it's not so simple.

If VT wins out and ends up 9-1 in conference, that would knock all of the current 1-loss teams to 2 losses, except NC State, but we have the tiebreaker. That would also give Clemson a loss, with VT having that tiebreaker.

There is a possibility of a 4-way tie of 1-loss teams between VT, Clemson, Notre Dame, and UNC. But in that scenario, we would have a round robin of head-to-head tiebreakers. VT over Clemson over ND over UNC over VT.

Now, a more likely scenario is that VT loses to Clemson and ends up 8-2. Again, that knocks all of the 1-loss teams down to 2 losses, and we would have all of the tiebreakers. NC State could still have only 1 loss, but they do have UNC on the schedule. We would need NC State to lose a game, and some combination of multiple losses from UNC, ND, or Clemson.

It looks like our main rooting interests are:
-whoever is playing uva
-whoever is playing UNC
-NC State (although it might help us out if they lose one game as long as it's not UNC)

It's a good thing that uva plays UNC on Halloween, as we'll probably be wanting UNC to lose, so it gives us an excuse to be rooting for the "wrong" team.

The ACC...Clemson and everyone else!

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

We won't have two undefeated teams in the ACCCG, since the only two teams left now are Clemson and ND, and they play during the season.

But that opens it up for the 1-loss teams: NC State, UNC, Miami, VT.

The two loss teams still have some life, seeing as how some of the 1-loss teams have to play Clemson: BC, WF, GT. (Well, maybe not...)

It's a little murkier to make a projection for who will face Clemson in the ACCCG.

VT chances of getting in?
-If we win out, go 9-1, which means beating Clemson...It could create a pool of 1-loss teams made up of Clemson, VT, NC State, and ND or UNC. ND beating UNC would probably get us in the game.
-If we lose to Clemson and go 8-2, we still need NC State to lose a game somewhere (preferably not the one against UNC)

Duke is 1-5, which means best case scenario is getting a .500 win percentage. For them to reach the ACCCG, every other team in the ACC will have to be .500 or worse. I don't even think that's mathematically possible, but I'm also not simulating wins and losses to figure that out. One more loss and/or a couple of wins by Clemson and NC State should make that easy.

Rooting interests for 10/24 to open up the top of the ACC:
-Syracuse over Clemson
-uva over Miami (I know, uva sucks and all that, but standings...)
-NC State over UNC (we definitely need UNC to lose a game so we can get ahead of them in the standings. But, an NC State loss wouldn't be completely bad, as it would give us some wiggle room if we lose again.)

To quote the great Al Davis, "Just win, baby."

Ut Prosim Ad Dei Gloriam

UNC needs to lose two more assuming we lose to Clemson (our D might give up 100 points in that game)

Is coronavirus over yet?

Well then we should beat Clemson.

But if UNC ends with 2 losses and we end with 2 losses, I'm pretty sure there is a good chance that a ND or Miami or some other team also ends with 2 losses. Therefore, UNC could lose just 1 more game (e.g. ND), and we could end up in a 3-way tie.

So that brings up the all important question of tiebreaker rules. Anyone have any idea what they are this year!? Are they going to use Division record even though we aren't playing with divisions this year? I don't think they can because we don't play GT for instance and they are in the Coastal with us in a regular season. So the tiebreaker must go to point differential or AP ranking or something like that.

Tiebreaker procedures are linked in the main post.

Reading, it'll get after ya

ESPN talking heads have us in the Pinstripe Bowl vs Indiana and the Holiday Bowl vs Arizona State!

Reach for Excellence!

VT Football: It'll get after ya!

Proud Hokie since 2004.

As I've said before, those projections are crap even in normal years. The guys doing it don't pay attention to a lot of the intangibles, such as bowls preferring not to take the same team in consecutive years or how certain conferences might have a pecking order.

This year, those projections are even more worthless. With the ACC changing their structure and not doing rankings or tiers, every team being bowl eligible, and just general covid chaos, no one knows shit about what the bowls are going to do.

We get to play in TWO bowls this year? 2020 is weird!

Ut Prosim Ad Dei Gloriam