ACC teams
16. Miami
12. UNC
4. Clemson
Notre Dame is 7
I think Clemson and Notre Dame are fine, Notre Dame's schedule is rough though. They have Wisconsin (11), Cincinnati (10), USC (13), and UNC (12) as top 25 opponents, plus Navy, VT, GT, UVA, FSU, Purdue, UVA, and Stanford. It's not unreasonable that they have 3 losses in that slate. I also know nothing about their QB
I think UNC should be higher, I'd have them over Wisconsin, Cincy, and Washington but behind Iowa State, so at 9. Miami is interesting....at first glance I think that's too high, but I read his reasoning and it does make sense. I also only saw D'Eriq King twice (vs us and Clemson) so I have a small sample size for him
On a Non-ACC note, I'm surpised at Oklahoma being 1. I couldnt, in my head, rationalize a team that doesnt play defense being the number 1 team in the country
https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-2021-preseason-To...
Comments
Sweet! My annual betting guide has arrived
The usual suspects, but ok on top, I disnt see it coming
Remember when we were included in these types of things?
Well, it has not panned out well lately. Perhaps low expectations will boost things up. Sort of like reverse psychology (or you can't get too disappointed if your expectations are modest enough).
Its amazing how quickly it can all fall apart in 5 years
I remember when not being included gave the team (and fans) a chip on their shoulder that made for some memorable upsets. Now, it simply seems ... appropriate.
I bought his magazine, he doesn't have VT in his top 60.
I was listening to Michael Felder's podcast yesterday. They were talking about ND's schedule, and they're like "They have to play at Lane, which is always tough, but the Hokies are going to be BAD this year"
I'm excited for a non-COVID season, but I think this team's ceiling could be 7-8 wins... which means we probably finish with 5-6 wins...
If Fuente does end up with a third losing season during his tenure here he will be gone at the end of the season. The buyout is smaller and the fan base is fed up.
If BB gets banged up, I really think the wheels may come off on offense. I'm not yet sold on BB presenting a legit vertical passing threat, but he is our most experienced option at QB.
I'm not sure BB is a substantial upgrade above replacement level. I'm not sure the offense will change too much without him. Perhaps he has made great strides. I certainly hope so.
In BB's defense, we did go 3-1 with him starting
Well to be fair his form was excellent while handing off to Herbert
Yeah Kadum looked good in his limited action last year. Burmeister doesn't bring any sort of wild athleticism or passing ability to the table but he can be used effectively enough to win games
The QB depth and starting talent being completely empty after Fuente successfully recruited 2 highly touted QBs and couldn't turn either of them into a long term starter is as big an indictment of him as a coach as any other out there right now. And certainly doesn't speak well to his claim of VT being "the best developmental school" when QB was supposed to be his primary position.
Look at the QB situation. That's the issue. 1. Burmeister is meh, and 2. Behind him is ummmm.... after that, the defense is 100% mediocre at best. So we win 8 shootouts? I doubt it
the defense will be much improved and with the exception of the Pitt game, they looked pretty good the second half of the season
Much improved means 75th or so in the country
The defense roster wise should be borderline elite. Bud would have this defense in the top 15 at least. Can J Ham do the same? Probably not, but if he's a decent coach he should have them close. We'll find out this year how good that hire was.
Top 5 is elite. You believe our defense will be top 5? Why?
Literally read my comment and you just made up your own definition for elite
The defensive roster borderline elite? Diablo certainly was our best defender, and he is gone. Last year we were ranked above 100, this year elite???? I am hoping they can be middle of the road, and maybe hold UNC and Pitts rushing attack under 250. Both teams boat raced our ass last year. I can still see tire tracks on their backs. Not trying to be negative, but realistic.
Based on SP+ we were 59th in 2020
So basically average
Experience at all positions.
Secondary: Waller, and Conner multiple years as productive starters. Strong good year as a starter. Daley/Jenkins/Taylor all have experience at starting safety spots.
Linebacker: Tisdale is a very good backer, Dax should be improved in his second year at mike, 4th year in the program.
Line: Kendricks, Pollard, and Garbutt all have multiple years experience and are productive; Barno is our best DE prospect since Hill.
Summary: Zero first time starters (and all good or at least productive starters). At least two deep at every position except LB.
Bud almost never had this much experience, if J Ham can't turn this into a top 30 unit I'm not sure what it will take for him to have one at Tech.
I agree with this. The entire starting lineup on both sides is full of not bad experienced players. Depth could be the achilles hill and we lack gamebreakers that could be the key in a few games. Big gap between floor and ceiling for this team, but there is enough hope there to keep me excited for this year.
Sure we're returning a bunch of starters from a mediocre defense. We should be better. But I think we're a far cry from elite. No reasonable person would see our roster as anywhere close to elite
They don't have to be elite; they just have to be better than last year.
UNC: Converted 6 3rd downs on 4 TD drives. Stop 2 and we win.
WF: Converted 6 3rd/4th downs on 2 TD drives. Stop 1 and we win.
Liberty: Converted 9 3rd/4th downs on 3 TD and 1 FG drive. Stop 1 and we win.
Miami: Converted 6 3rd/4th downs on 3 TD and 2 FG drives. Stop 1 and we win.
Pitt: Converted 7 3rd/4th downs on 4 TD and 2 FG drives. It's impossible, but if we stop all of them, we may just have won. I don't think we would have, but...
5 additional stops over 4 games, and instead of 5-6 we are 9-2, with a showdown with Clemson in the ACCCG.
I can understand ifs and maybes in the Miami game, but Pitt and UNC were boat racing us, they imposed their will on us, and we had zero answers on defense.
I'm not disagreeing with you. I was responding to Rayo who claimed that our defensive roster was almost elite. It's pretty far from elite. But that doesn't mean an improved defense can't help win games
Also the defense isn't trying to change schemes during an off-season/spring with limited practice/reps
Due to the free Covid year, everyone has experience at all positions. Returning production is not as much of an advantage as it has been previously.
How do you see tire tracks in a boat race? Boats don't have wheels.
how do you arrive at this conclusion besides just pure blind optimism? Are we loaded with 4 and 5 Star recruits on defense that I didn't know about? What makes our defensive roster "borderline elite"?
Look who posted it. We shouldn't have to have this argument again.
It's the opposite end DCWilson.
Look it's regular DC Wilson #2
Lol go Hokies! I hope you come back to this post and stuff it in my face this year.
this is the best possible response you could have had
I don't see the d being elite, but certainly much improved. The addition of Williams and Daley is huge, and we know Conner, Waller, and Barno can ball.
With a legit offseason and time to learn the new system, at a minimum, I see us giving up a lot fewer chunk plays. I don't think it will be a stifling defense, but I'm hoping to see a lot more high impact defensive plays this year as well (TFLs, third down stops, turnovers, etc)
huh? I honestly don't know where you are getting elite. Who is an elite LB on this roster? Who is an elite Free Safety? Who is an elite DT?- the guy that didn't get burn on Clemson's actual elite DL?
Who is Micheal Felder and why is his opinion worth anything?
Used to work for SB Nation/Banner Society, now works at stadium with Brett McMurphy (among other places). Former UNC player (when Julius Peppers was there). Very active on the high school recruiting circuit in the NC area, also does a lot of coverage for NC State and Arkansas.
I'm not claiming that he's some clairvoyant. He's not a numbers expert like Bill Connelly or Phil Steele. He's not as connected as Stephan Godfrey. But he's spent 20 years in college football and knows the southern half of the ACC really well. He's also one of those people who considers 8-10 wins to be a "good" team, and rarely speaks hyperbolically. His take has just as much value as (almost) anyone in college football media.
The sports world is full of people with modestly impressive resumes. What is his accuracy with past proclamations? I care about results, not resumes. If he has a good record, I care. If not, he's just another guy with a keyboard, but a bigger bullhorn.
This isn't the first time you've done this exact thing before, so let me ask you this: Do you think any national CFB analyst/writer/personality even considers VT football relevant enough to acquire clout off negative VT takes? Is it possible that most neutral observers within the college football world just legitimately believe the program is not in a great spot at the moment?
It is also likely that the less relevant a program is perceived, the less likely that program is analyzed on what it will be versus what it has been.
I do think it's an interesting idea to track media member predictions and takes, but other than the people on College Gameday and gambling shows, does anyone actually do this?
I actually don't care that much about Felder's chops on predicting college football outcomes. It both sucks and is somewhat refreshing that VT football is now something that happens in the background while I do other things instead of being the centerpiece of my weekend. But it allows me to not really care that much about what various people think is going to happen with our team (allowing me to realize that even when I REALLY cared about the outcome of VT games/seasons, so many fucks should not be given about what other people think about our team).
But Felder is a Top 5 twitter follow. The man is a top level cook, has stories from his playing days (find the one about having to play in the sun and heat while hungover made him a staunch advocate for finishing games as quickly has possible) and also cohosts a gardening podcast. I strongly recommend for your entertainment purposes.
Dude I just resodded my backyard and spent way to much time learning about grass. When Server called fescue beta-grass I fucking lost it laughing.
Wow I think thats a horrible take by them, interesting that people have that idea
We were objectively bad in 2020. And we're losing our two most productive offensive players from that 2020 team (Herbert, Hooker) going into 2021. What's so interesting about people having the idea that VT will be bad again in 2021? Honestly, if you look at the pieces we've lost from that 2020 team it's hard to find any reason to believe the 2021 version won't be any worse.
I mean, I guess it's nice that you're so optimistic but your blind optimism is bizarre. You do not seem to be grounded in reality.
I dont care if folks predict us to be bad. But, in terms of ND, which the quote was about, we nearly beat them with a wildcat offense under QP. So, I do think it was more dismissive than it should have been.
I do think we were better than our record last year and objectively average. We played nine straight weeks and never really had time to bring on new/young players (Herbert being a massive exception, but Blackshear, Fairs, Hodge, Taylor, and any other late editions never really had a clean shot), never had a chance to get healthy rehab, or even defensively learn the playbook. No point rehashing it, but there are positives to last season to the point that you could be optimistic.
I could make a case for 10 wins or 4 wins next year and everything in between, and find plausible reasons for each and every one. But I get why people can be both blindly optimistic and blindly pessimistic.
Objectively average as mentioned below and whether people want to admit it or not we had a tough schedule. Clemson is an auto loss. Miami, UNC, and yes Liberty (sorry but it's true) were all top 20 teams and we should've won two of them. Yes the Wake and Pitt games sucked but we also destroyed above average NC State and BC.
All in all that is not "objectively bad" it's pretty objectively average. Flip the Miami and Liberty games then everyone would be talking about how good we should be this year
We were under .500. Last time I checked that was objectively bad. Our schedule wasn't that tough last year. We were just a bad team. Simple as that.
Oversimplification
you say that I'm over simplifying. I say that you're searching way too hard for rainbows and gumdrops that just aren't there. We clearly just disagree on the state of the program. You have the rosiest perspective I have seen. There's nothing wrong with that but I just don't see it the way you do. MY optimistic view is that the defense will be improved (they had the deck stacked against them last year, admittedly). Improved but not elite. Bama and Clemson have elite defensive rosters. VT has, at best, a slightly above average roster. There's a pretty big difference between elite and top 60.
To your credit, I think you have a good point about returning experience. The fact we're not having to start new players at very many spots is generally a good thing. That should bode well. But it's not like we're returning any Kendal Fullers. We don't have any truly elite athletes.
We broke our bowl streak, had our first losing regular season in more years than I can remember, and lost to Liberty. How can that be anything other than a BAD year?
edited for clarity.
Sadly, we lost the winning season streak in 2018 - counting the bowl game, that is. Sigh.
Correct! I should have added "regular".
I get your point; I can tell you that despite having a top 50/60 resume, last year's team was top 25 in SP+. Here's what I think you're overlooking:
If last year's team was young, and we had the same end results but we lost UNC and Liberty due to 'freshman mistakes', I'd be more optimistic. But I think we know what we have with this coaching staff. We'll probably have a top 50 offense that will put together some beautiful drives, as well as a lot of 3rd downs that don't get converted.
For this team to be good we need:
All of these are unproven right now. Check all 3 boxes, we're a top 15 team. Check any two, we're top 30. Check just one, we're top 45ish.
Well, right off the bat the best we can expect based on your criteria is top 30. Burmeister has shown that he cannot deliver the ball deep at all. Even if we find a WR to take the top off (we haven't yet, why would we expect that to change?) we don't have a QB who could get the ball to him. There is still hope that we can find one or both of the other two. I think non-QB running threat is more likely than top 25 defense and if we're honest both are probably long shots. Still, top 30 would likely be an improvement from last year
I don't think BBs arm is going to be throwing tight windows on deep crossing patterns etc, but he is surely good enough to throw fades (back shoulder or single coverage fly over the top) as long as we have a receiver that can help out. It doesn't take much of a threat to at least back the defense off the underneath stuff that BB is better at. So, I agree the deep passing game is a major concern, but I don't think it should absolutely be counted out just yet. Keep in mind that this staff has hinted multiple times that they feel BB runs the total offense better than Hooker, for whatever that is worth.
I don't know about that. His longest completed pass in 2020 went for 60 yards. It was caught 14 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and the rest was YAC.
I wouldn't consider this a deep threat but the best way to get huge plays in the passing game is to find a really quick, elusive athlete who can catch the ball on a screen and outrun the defense to the end zone. In my mind, a deep threat is a big, fast WR who can beat his man deep and/or catch a contested pass that travels 30+ yards in the air. Burmeister just can't deliver those passes. When he really winds up and throws the ball as hard as it looks like he can it goes maybe 30 yards through the air. He just doesn't have the rocket launcher required to hit a deep threat down the field.
Yea - statisticians seem to track 'plays greater than 20 yards' is the best way to track explosiveness. That said, the more ways you can get more than 20 yards on a single play (broken run, YAC, through the air, etc), the better. If we don't replace Herbert's production, and BB doesn't build a proficient deep ball, then YAC (and QB scrambles) are really our only ways to get an 'explosive' play.
We're not completely screwed, but I'd feel a lot better with more options.
I really think a lot of people underestimate how crucial Herbert was to our offense as a whole. I'm worried that without him it is going to be a much less productive unit. I'm not necessarily saying we are "completely screwed" but I do think it is foolish to expect the same level of production in 2021 that the offense had in 2020. Explosive plays will be hard to come by and with our team's struggles on 3rd down it could be a very long season for the offense.
Yeah big "prove it" year for the OL and Vice. Do I think Vice has been a solid recruiter? Absolutely. Do I think Vice is teaching technique and blocking schemes that will create rushing success regardless of who is at RB...? If I have to give a one word answer, no.
We have had one year with a reliable non-QB running game and it was with an NFL draft pick RB. The other years we have struggled to develop a non-QB running game consistently. I don't like the lack of leverage and upright, patty cake style blocking we do, but I have never claimed to be an OL expert. That said, people who do know more about OL than me have shared similar sentiments.
Now, hopefully 2-3 of our 11 RB's will be good enough to make guys miss and keep the running game going at least at a reliable level. I have very high hopes for Kenji Christian, King has shown flashes, I still have hope for Brunson (haven't heard much on him recently though), and the smoke around Marco Lee has been very promising. We will see.
Is this from personally seeing him throw or from watching the tape last year? Because I honestly don't remember seeing him attempt any deep balls last year. Hard to evaluate his arm strength on a deep ball without having really seen it.
admittedly, it's from watching the games.
This is absolutely a fair point. One does wonder why we haven't seen it, though. Hooker attempted a couple deep passes so if the coaches trusted Hooker to launch it why wouldn't they trust Burmeister to do so? The times that Burmeister threw it 20-30 yards over the middle it looked like he was putting everything he had into it so I'm inclined to believe he just doesn't have the arm to attempt those deeper throws. The coaches would know that and they probably don't call plays asking him to do something he can't do.
I would be pretty surprised to see VT develop a deep passing threat in 2021. For one thing, we haven't been able to develop such a threat since 2016 so why would we start now? But mostly, I just don't think Burmeister has the arm talent to do it. I'm not saying that he can't be a serviceable QB for VT. Decent coaches know how to maximize players' strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Burmeister's strengths are in the read-option running game and quick underneath passes. The coaches need to figure out how to make that work (and hopefully keep BB healthy for the whole season). I just don't think we have a deep threat passing option in our arsenal at the moment.
I know that he attempted 2 in the Clemson game. Both were complete. Of course, I'm not sure the 2nd one can be counted since it should have been intercepted right before the half.
this is a good find. The first pass was caught about 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and then YAC got another 20ish yards. The second pass was thrown from about the 47 to the goal line. That's probably about the furthest Burmeister can throw it and it was a true Hail Mary. I'm not sure how accurate he can be at that distance.
For context, Lawrence threw a pass from the center of the field to the left sideline which was caught, in stride, 30 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and went to the house in the same game. That is what I imagine when I think of a deep threat. I just don't believe Burmeister can do that.
A thirty yard accurate pass is all that is needed to consistently space out the field. An occasional 40 yard attempt can keep the dbs engaged a little longer. He will never have great arm strength but he can develop a serviceable well rounded game. Bryan Randall had one of the weakest arms I had ever seen for a highly rated recruit. It was always a limiting factor for him but he developed a crazy amount by the time he graduated.
I agree with most of this. I will push back a bit on the being outcoached part. Two dumbass decisions at the end of Liberty and we just happen to be the ones with the short straw. If the blocked kick stands, Hugh Freeze is the idiot for trying an impossible field goal that has a high probability of being blocked. Secondly, in general, being outcoached in a covid year of little to no team practice and game planning is not necessarily indicative of being outcoached in a normal year (particularly with the new defensive scheme). So, finally, I wont defend these coaches to the end of the earth, but I agree last year's team was better than the results. Take your pick on how to assign weight of that result to coaching versus covid what-the-fucks. I can at least say I am excited to see what this year's team can put together.
Fair assessment. What I'm more concerned about/acknowledging is that Fuente hasn't yet been able to squeeze every last ounce of production out of these players. He's not Chris Peterson.
I just don't see this team getting more than 7 wins, unless a handful of players make a serious jump in a single offseason. I hope that happens, but this staff hasn't shown us that is possible since 2016.
A good lesson from way back in my college days, from public speaking class: the adjective "interesting" when used in an (formal/informal) argument is often taken to be passive aggressive and non-commital, in a "I want to insult you but if you get mad I can say I can say you're just overreacting" way. I always like to relay that story so that folks understand the inference that others can see when using that word. One of the rules of that class was we lost points if we used a set of specific "way too common" words, and "interesting" was one of them.
That is an interesting take.......
I don't know why anyone would.
results last year weren't great at all. Our gameday coaching and player execution was a all over the place, our lone consistent weapon on offense is gone and our recruiting has been utter crap for 3 years now. I have no idea why any expert would rank us anywhere but near the bottom of any P5 poll. I mean even on here a lot of the optimism revolves around wishful thinking rather than an objective look at how things are.
First of all, preseason rankings aren't predictions of where a team will finish at the end of the season; it's where they stand right now based on what they return/have added.
Second, OU is trendy pick to win it all this year. Of the 6-7 teams that have made the playoffs the last 3 years, OU and UGA are the only teams that have a returning QB and UGA has not yet proven (a) that JT Daniels is any good, or that (b) their coaching staff has any idea how to use a good QB.
Your first and second point kind of contradict each other? first you say preseason isnt based on where teams will finish at the end of the year, but then you say OU is the trency pick to win it all...
Either way, I stick to the age old formula that defense wins championships. Your defense doesnt have to be all time great, but if it's objectively bad you're gonna have a bad time. I wouldnt pick them to win it all (unless their defense is significantly better) and I wouldnt pick them as my preseason number 1
On a related note...I'd be curious to see what championship team in the BCS/CFP era had the WORST defense out of the championship winning teams...might be something I check later today, also might do NFL and NBA.
I was trying to say that preseason rankings shouldn't be predictive, but if we're going to predict a winner, OU isn't a bad choice.
Their defense is expected to be much improved. They finished 2020 with the 15th best defense per SP+, up from 36th in preseason 2020 and 48th at the end of 2019. Alex Grinch is doing an amazing job there (I'm a huge fan of his, would be interested in considering him as a replacement for Fuente, but I digress). As you'll see below, a top 15 defense and a top offense can definitely be a national title winning formula.
There's 2 ways to win a Natty:
Nothing special about defense.
so the 2 outliers here are Auburn and UCF. UCF wasnt given a shot at the title game, so idk about including them. Auburn had a transcendent QB leading their team, but even still 44 isnt BAD, it's just above average.
I'm not saying throw out the 2020 results, but I am saying it was definitely a weird year in more ways than 1 and I take that ranking with a grain of salt. BUT if their defense is even just top 40 this year, then I could see them being a favorite with their offense.
Also nice table, where'd you find the data? Is it possible to see those numbers compared to the championship opponent/other playoff teams?
This also brings up another thought...what's the worst statistical defense to win a title, what's the worst statisical offense? what's the average for both? If you tell me where you found the data you're looking at I can take the time to look it up
Yea, I just put that in to troll a little bit. Looks like the joke was a bad one.
Auburn also got quite lucky that season. They're the only champion in the last decade to win a natty without a top 5 unit on either side of the ball.
For reference, the 2020 Virginia Tech Defense was ranked 48th
Kinda disagree. SP+ looks at each play on it's own, then extrapolates those plays across the course of a game. There were less data points between conferences (due to the lack of OOC match ups in 2020) but rankings within a conference were quite accurate. Anyways, this is a nice segways to your final question:
Bill Connelly is the inventor and proprietor of the SP+ (formerly S/P+) system. His work from 2008-2018 can be found on football outsiders. In 2019, Bill went to ESPN, and a lot of his work is behind the ESPN Insider paywall. If you google 'SP+ Rankings 2020' you'll find the link. His releases rankings preseason, plus every week during the season.
Anyways, here's how Bill Connelly explains the system:
🤷♂️ I found it funny.
Phil used to do a prediction poll and a power rating poll. Does he not still do that?
His overall rankings are based on how he thinks each team will finish the season
Having OU win the natty would be pretty good for college football compared to an SEC school so I'm all in
UNC returns their QB but they lost a ton of offensive weapons last year. I wouldn't be surprised if their offense is very inconsistent this season.
Florida being unranked is silly.
I would rank VT round 50th, honestly. Directly proportional to Burmeister and zero experience behind him. Huge potential problem. In terms of ND, even though he is a prick, Brian Kelly is a hell of a coach. He is not afraid to fire underperforming coaches, he recruits well, and he has an offense that is legitimately good every year. They will be around at the end of the season again, IMO.
Regarding ND - they're one great QB away from a natty. We'll see if they ever get that one player.
15-0. Print the shirts.
Print the shirts... that's a reference I haven't heard in a longggg time!
Mission accomplished!
Let the annual stirring of the pots commence!
I don't understand not bringing in a transfer an this season. This is the season we've needed it the most
Only works if there is a transfer available that we are interested in and that wants to come and doesn't have other offers. Maybe nobody met all three parameters.
Like this guy?
LINK
In the back of my head Fu is playing a really long con and Bulmrick/Bullock have been absolutely tearing it up and he's keeping it entirely under wraps. This scenario isn't likely at all but its keeping me level headed.
I don't think he was brought in as a qb