No, seriously:
Killing some time on a Sunday morning by ranking the ACC's receiving corps... 1. Virginia Tech2. Clemson3. UNC4. NC State5. BC6. Wake7. Miami8. Louisville9. Pitt10. UVA11. GT12. Duke13. Syracuse14. FSU— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 18, 2021
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
I assume DavidHaleJOINT indicates what he is smoking
Fewest drops and most yards after catch. Basically a group effort to quietly go about their work.
I'd be interested in Air Yards/Average Depth of Target stats to put that into context.
Dear Kevin,
You still need to:
1: get the pass off accurately
2: Achieve separation from the DB
3: Provide pass protection
4: Catch the damn ball
5: Get up field
on screens and slants
I like how when we finally have someone nationally highlight something good about our program, we have guys like KPHokie615 jump on the Twitter machine to try to disprove that positive press.
It's pronounced Kevin.
Keavienne
Que Bien?
Kevin is pronounced KEHV-ihN (English) †
† Pronunciation guide:
K as in "key (K.IY)" ; EH as in "ebb (EH.B)" ; V as in "vow (V.AW)" ; IH as in "it (IH.T)" ; N as in "knee (N.IY)" ;
not to mention, have you seen their jet sweeps??
A play that averages over 8 yards a pop?
This stat peaked my interest...I assume jet sweeps are logged as Rushing yards?
If so, looking through last season, Turner had 9 carries for 60 yards, Robinson had 5 carries for 48 yards, and Hodge had 1 carry for -2 yards....coming to just over 7 ypc for the whole receiving unit.
That number seems to be inflated, as they typically aren't big gainers, one of Turner's carries against NCSU went for 51. So for his other 8 carries on the season, he gained 9 yards (1.125 ypc), one of Robinson's carries went for 28...omitting his outlier he's looking at 5 ypc.
As a unit, if you omit the two outlier big plays, that drops the ypc for recievers to 2.07 for 2020. Granted, the big plays will happen every so often, so maybe it can be a valuable play, once every 7 or 8 attempts anyways...also should clarify that I am just going off of the rushing yards per carry, they may not have all been jet sweeps
I view that similar to RBs. How many runs did Herbert have last year where he gained <0-3 yards? Probably more than the rest, but those long runs were what made the difference. Those other runs just softened up the defense.
So, I've got some down time at work today...
If I counted correctly, on the 2020 season Khalil Herbert had 67 carries for three yards or less, and 92 carries of 4 yards or more.
Might as well delete his >20 yd runs in order to establish a legit average. No, we don't do that with runningbacks, so why would we want to do that with receivers on jet sweeps? Nevermind the fact that the jet sweep motion has other impacts on how the defense defends.
My point wasn't to take anything away from the receivers, just that saying that that play averages 7-8 yards, while accurate mathematically, it implies that there is a good chance we'll get a big chunk of yards on any given time the play is called, when the odds are we're gonna end up with 2-3 yards most times
also, my initial comment was meant 100% TIC, but it seems as though the mention of jet sweeps has offended some people. For that I am deeply sorry.
No problem, sorry if my comment came across as being an asshole. The generic negative views toward jet sweeps confuse me. But, on the unrelated flip side, stating that any recruit with a sub 4.5 40 would be awesome on jet sweeps, is equally irritating to me. So yeah, I may be hypersensitive to jet sweeps which are ordinary mostly boring but effective plays.
If you're going to do that you should also drop anything under 4 that was a scoring play.
I stand corrected.
Dude was a HOAT
There's a really great thread about the effectiveness of the jet sweep that came about TKP months ago.
There's a reason the coaches keep calling for it.
https://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2020/february/24/jet-sweeps-numbers
https://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2020/december/17/jet-sweeps-2020-swee...
Statistical notes for 2020:
IIRC, if you are going to drop the outliers, you must drop the lowest as well as the highest.
Ok, that puts Turner to 3 ypc (-2, 5, 2, 0, 10, 6...omitting 51 and -12) and Robinson at 9 ypc on 3 carries (12, 10 and 5, omitting 28 and -7)
Thanks for sharing. Pretty interesting insights and data from ESPN. He highlighted the contributions of Turner, Robinson, and Mitchell but hopefully the Hokies can add one more major contributor to really round out the group.
Payoute may end up being the best of all of them before it's said and done, hoping he has a huge year
My thoughts exactly, all that was without a speed threat to stretch the field. I can't wait to see Payoute get meaningful snaps.
I was going to say that this had to be a mistake, but after reading Hale's statistical justification, I can kind of go along with his point. The counterpoint is that receivers are only half of the equation, and our starting QB is not exactly in the Heisman Trophy discussion. Hopefully our solid receivers will have a healthy and well-coached QB to distribute the ball to them.
I buy it. We've got a REALLY strong and experienced core with Turner, Robinson, and Mitchell. And this year hopefully Payoute, who I think could be the breakout player on the team, gets to show what he can do.
In other words I can't think of a group that is clearly better in the ACC!
The top three of the "receiving core" is definitely top tier of the ACC. Not sure if I'd put it #1. If they can stay healthy (hopefully those three especially hit the weight room this off-season) they should make some noise this season.
I agree that it is a strength of this team but the O needs a breakout #1 receiver. If that happens our solid experienced group should be able to put up big numbers as well. Run game has to not drop off significantly either or the defenses will just keep everybody in front of them.
Well duh!
We need Tre Turner to stay healthy and play to his potential. He has the potential to open our whole offense up because he can do so many things well. But, need consistency. Hopefully he's gotten stronger too.
I think payouts deep with Robinson taking a lot of the short routes should hopefully open up those middle depth routes for Tre, if we decide to throw them
I agree and I've said on here before...get stronger...that weight room can change a player in ways natural ability cannot....combine strength training with god given talent and the possibilities are endless...(look back at earnest wilford). If tre has put on 10 pounds muscle and Robinson as well they could be unstoppable along with Mitchell and payote...the X factor? The right arm of Braxton burmeister
I would love to see the breakdown of this between Hooker and Burmeister. Good to know our receiving corps is doing its job. I'm not yet convinced we have a reliable distributor to get them the ball but it's something to build off of, I guess. I also very curious how the coaches try to make use of the weapons we do have
When you have Cam, Isaiah, and Bucky with Jerod throwing the ball, you put up numbers.
We definitely have the receiving threat. We need the passing threat.
This is definitely what I'm worried about. It's a recurring issue at VT, even in the Beamer days. We've never really been great at fully utilizing the offensive talent that we get. Maybe that first year with Fuente you could say the offense met it's full potential, but other than that there's always a few players you feel like could have or should have put up more numbers in a different system.
It didn't meet its full potential that year. Had everyone stayed it might have in 2017. But in 2016 Evans never really progressed through his reads. He really just ran it if the first read wasn't open. Maybe another year of off-season and more time practicing with Ford, Hodges, and Phillips VT might have reached it. But the lack of run game hurt VT for many years until this past season.
I get what you're saying, he COULD have been so much more, but to me you can't just take the mental aspect out of it. What would Marcus Davis be if he didn't take off every play where he wasn't the primary receiver?
It's kind of obvious in retrospect that Evans' never progressed through his reads because he truly believed he didn't need to. He left the team because he honestly believed he had a shot at the NFL. Everyone here called it at the time that his obvious physical gifts alone weren't enough to attract the attention of the NFL, and the rest is history.
Sure, that was not in the way I meant it but no argue here. But one can't say that 2016 was the top if your QB never gets to the 2nd or 3rd read. There was more room for this offense to grow than what we say in 2016 If we would have seen that growth in 2017 who knows.
I think Burmeister will be an upgrade to what we've seen the past couple years, he didn't look bad when he played last year but he HAS to stay healthy. I think he's the best short pass thrower of the bunch, even including Hooker and Willis from past years. A lot will depend on how effective we can run the ball without Herbert
He better be if we want VT to compete for the Coastal
I think more of that will really be on the defense and how much they can improve, I think our offense will be solid but I think if our defense takes another step forward it could be the right mix to get us back to 9-10 wins
but can they block. /s
YES!! Herbert doesn't break some of those runs last year without WR blocking.
I just wish we had a QB that could leverage such an advantage
I think Burmeister can, and probably will, this year. For all the ballyhoo about losing Herbert (which is certainly warranted), I think some of the new receivers will be able to stretch the field vertically. Turner and Robinson struggled with separation because we never found a true deep threat (make since why Hale says we lead in YAC, and we're second-to-last in the ACC in 10+ air yard attempts).
Assuming Payoute is who we think he is, and someone like Lofton/Jones/Moss can step in like Tre Turner did his freshman year - we might have a player who can take the top off the defense. It might not change things dramatically, but if defenses have to play an extra yard or two off to respect the deep ball, that will open up things underneath (hello Dalton Keene vs. Miami route tree), open up the run game, etc.
I certainly hope he can, but he really hasn't yet shown the ability to do so (and by that I mean stretch the field to spread the defensive pressure away from the 5 yards within the LOS).
Right but when have we really asked him to? We didn't have anybody to stretch the field or take a deep shot with last year.
Seriously our QBs last year weren't asked to make the passes people are saying they are unable to make.
If you go back and watch the UVA game, he did a good job driving the ball on deep-outs (about 10-12 yards past the LOS). He didn't have necessarily the most zip on the ball, but it got there in time and moved the chains. The windows aren't super tight, but he did have to make a couple of good throws.
My point is that if a receiver proves to be someone who the defense has to respect on the deep ball, it opens up everything else for a passer who might be "limited" in arm strength. The passing game was underwhelming all year, regardless of who was throwing the ball. I think part of that was QB struggles (Hooker included), and part of it was receivers not getting separation. But I have a hard time believing that if you replace Kaleb Smith's snaps with Jaden Payoute we don't get better.
From what I've seen, Lofton has a chance to make an immediate impact in the slot.
Did we all forget that our last top-5 ranking came on the shoulders of a r-SO Logan Thomas (albeit with an embarrassing amount of riches at WR and DMFW in the backfield)? Absolutely not slandering the guy, but he wasn't exactly known for being the most accurate passer. Dude had a cannon for an arm but there was a reason the "Logan Thomas overthrow" drinking game became a thing...
This is area where I think the analytics don't necessarily match up with the eye test. When schemed open, the wrs tend to make the play when the ball is delivered properly. My frustration is that they tend to have trouble getting separation and making tough catches in traffic. Of course some of that could be qb related if he's not delivering the ball at the right time or to the right spot, but I would like to see them win more one on one battles.
That being said, I am bullish on the wrs especially with Mitchell back. They've shown flashes of explosiveness in the past and I'm hoping they can take a step forward this year. Excited to see if Payoute can provide the deep threat that we've been waiting for
and if BB can provide the deep ball to make the deep threat viable
We also run the ball an awful lot (119 out of 127) in passing play percentage in 2020 (120th in 2019). This can skew some of the efficiency stats in our favor in regards to passing. The take overall is pretty indefensible to me, even in the context of stats he provided beneath his original take, but I do like our receivers quite a bit. I hope we have more depth this season (Looking at Payoute, Lofton, and Jones), and Payoute (or someone else) will add a new speed dimension to our WR room. Also, as many have said, you have to get your WR's the ball in dangerous positions for them to maximize their potential. A lot is riding on Burmeister's development as a passer this season.
No statistics to back it up, so I'm hopefully not pulling a Kevin, but I feel the numbers are skewed up and my perception is skewed down because we do not take much risk. 3rd and 9, and the chances of us attempting a 10+ yd pass seem to be around 30%, a QB draw around 40%, and a run, screen or other draw about 30%. I would guess more than 50% of our 10+ yd pass completions happen on 2nd and 5 or less. Makes it hard to tell if we don't throw much because coaches don't trust it, or it's just a chin-balls lite philosophy of avoiding risky pass plays.
Why so many arguments against a positive Hokie take?
People are bored and disgruntled with the program. There won't be any new real Hokie news for the next 6 weeks and this is an excuse to vent the same old tired arguments ad nauseam.
Which is a shame, b/c this is one major bright spot about our offense.
We're only 6 weeks from football man. Acc media days this week plus should get some more updates between now and UNC. Lets get it
I think a lot of this has to do with our scheme and not as much our receivers winning one on one battles, which is something I think has been a glaring issue with our offense. We rely a lot on plays like the infamous one Corny broke down in his Coach's Corner. I'd be interested to see if we don't run a lot of routes that require them to create their own separation because that's just not our offense or if that's what we've had to revert to because we just don't have that skill set.
His tweet about our throws of 10+ yards being 2nd lowest in the ACC but having the high success rate really backs this up i think.
You can spin stats to say whatever you want.
These stats seem to indicate some positive news about our wr core. However, that didn't translate into wins so we must wait and see until this season starts...
Yeah and #1 is definitely arguable, but James Mitchell was one of the best if not the best TE last season in the ACC. He average 4 more YPC than the guy from BC. He could have used a couple more TDs but I doubt there are many teams that wouldn't take him. What TE would you rank over him?
For Tre and Trayion, only 6 WRs return that were more productive than either of them last season.
From a productivity standpoint point no team comes close. BC has Flowers and the TE, Clemson has a bunch of top recruits but proven on the field its tough for any team to match us and its tough for me to say any team wouldn't take our guys over theirs other than maybe Clemson or BC.
ftfy
And he's totally within his right to do so. Shitting on DC isn't going to make him stop. Why bother wasting your time?
Ahh yes, turning this into a debate about TKPC is exactly what we need right now.
this is noise -- plenty of people in this thread are a little at odds with Hale's conclusion
How is what I said even one iota different than the curmudgeonly bullshit DC spews on here every single day? I'm so tired of reading a good headline on TKP and scrolling down into the comments thinking "where's DC's derailing comment gonna pop up"
lol this crew picks quite the wide variety of things to defend on here. DC spurts his usual non-constructive noise and I get downvoted for being sick to death of it.
FTFY
I'm not attacking you personally but pointing out that you pretty much just attacked DC head on. If you don't like what he says just ignore it and move on. Replying is just going to make it worse.
Yeah how dare I look him in the eye😂
lol...looking him in the eye is a lot different than spitting in his face...
this isn't going anywhere useful
DC engaged directly with the content that was shared by the OP. His statement at face value skewed neither positively nor negatively. Was DC baiting? Maybe, maybe not -- I thought it was one of his tamer points and it's one that echoed the sentiment of several other commenters -- this doesn't seem to square the eye test, why is that? Is there a QB split, is it the fact of being schemed open, is it because we don't throw very often even on obvious passing downs? so on and so forth
I encourage everyone to check their pre-dispositions towards other commenters and engage in good faith. More specifically, your comment indicates you didn't do that.
Cool, next time I'll just downvote (which I didn't do because he absolutely has the right to comment negatively on everything, just as I have the right to express my exasperation with it) and move along.
nothing about his comment is excessively negative, remotely derailing, or anything that warrants a downvote or a personalized clapback.
DC has earned every bit of his reputation, but a lot of folks around here engage with his reputation and not actual the content of his comments.
His comments were the same tactic conspiracy theorist use for anything else. In what world and for what reason does David Hale a sports journalist have for "making the stats" show Tech has the overall best WR corps? Hale lays out his reasons, deeply in fact. But he chose to ignore that and engage in what amount to a conspiracy.
🦋🔥
Didnt respond to him and won't because it's what he wants someone to get him going.
so engaging with him indirectly in an open format where he can read what you said doesn't count because you replied to me and not him? it's TKP, not the Cold War lol
you know what else conspiracy theorists do? attempt to discredit someone by insinuating they're part of some grand conspiracy, but maybe that's neither here nor there
at this point it's basically Me:Rayo :: DC:Fireman
Disagree. Under most conditions, I defend DC. Had he actually discussed why stats can be misleading, it would have been constructive albeit still headscratchingly strange considering an unbiased journalist is saying a positive thing about the team this site exists for.
Agree to disagree with most of your first paragraph.
Re the second: I've concurred with a lot of DC's comments in the past. I think he's a smart guy who knows a lot about football, and a lot about knowingly pushing people's buttons. One is helpful and conducive to an enjoyable online community, and one is not.
This has already gone on too long, and I regret my part in protracting it. I just find it funny that I'm being scolded for something dozens of others have done, and with a lot more venom. At least I tried to make a "ftfy" joke with my clapback.
Carry on.
Oh man, we need to make side bets on where DC will derail a thread, if Joe takes a bit off the top TKPC could be free for all!
How many comments before it happens, how many responses before locked ... $$$$$
/s
Bullshit? Who is our third WR? Not Mitchell- he is a TE. Who is our 3rd WR? Kaleb Smith? Payoute- who hasn't played in a game? You want to debate actual football, and how we have basically 2 proven WRs but they are ranked top in the ACC? I find that very odd, especially coming off a losing season where the offense was 100% meh and our best QB transferred out. Let's debate actual football on the field vs. what you call bullshit then.
Not calling out just you specifically, but the vast majority of us here would prefer it if these kinds of hot-headed debates cooled down a bit. Nothing that any of us can accomplish on an internet forum for college football is worth getting this riled up over.
Also, even the ACC network says that it's a list of wide receivers AND tight ends... So there's that.
This tweet is a great example of what I've discussed in the past in regards to David Hale. He is their ACC guy. It is his job to make the ACC look good and interesting to the audience (ACC fans) that read his work and follow him on twitter. I think he is quite good at his job, but to suggest that there isn't some benefit to him making a slightly hot take to drive up discussion and interest in a relatively minor ACC subject is silly. Even this tweet with the "eyes" emoji suggests that is exactly what's going on. I'm not suggesting it's "all about clicks" or anything, but there is some truth to writing and producing takes in such a way that you add a little spice and intrigue into your work as a sports journalist. Takes that drive up interaction with the content are good for business, and this kind of take, given that he makes a (stretch, imo) defense of his position, is fair game and not bad journalism.
wow chris when did you become a conspiracy theorist smh my head you hate to see it
It's also July and content is content. It might seem preposterous but also, looking at top receiving stats from last year - a lot of those players aren't returning so while it's hot take-ish it's isn't out of the realm of possibility. Don't get too high on it, don't get too low.
Maybe, I just need to invoke the HokieFireman rule for myself...
Sure he needs people to argue, but out of the returning recievers/TEs by yards per game we have 3 of the top 10. BC is next with 2 i the top 10 and their 3rd is slight below but comparable yo Mitchell's yards and ypc. Wake has two frosh in the top 10 returners and their 3rd is no where close.
Cuse, Pitt, and UVA all have 1 in top 10. UVA's guy got 18% of his yards on 1 play. UVA's next WR last season had 9 receptions for 38 yards, they had a QB with more recieving yards. (7 catches 98 yards)
There isn't any depth on any team in the ACC for recieving. Really the "hot take" is BC not being higher.
We're ranked 1st and UVA is ranked 12th. Great news even if the rankings are a bit premature!
Higher ranking than the number of football fans at the spring game.
it's "receiving corps" inclusive of WRs and TEs, as has been pointed out otherwise. did a losing season with a meh offense and a QB who transferred out mean that the pass catchers aren't good?
I don't know how to link past comments, but I've raised this exact point about us not having proven WR depth several times in the past and never received multiple down votes. If you get beyond Turner (who is extremely injury prone and slight in stature) and Robinson, we do not have a single wide receiver on the roster with meaningful collegiate experience or production. The fact of the matter is that we are one WR injury away from: (a) relying upon unproven guys to live up to their potential; or (b) dire straights. Even Payoute is a converted QB who is coming off multiple major surgeries and may not even be a full go in fall camp. They pulled him from the field after the first spring practice and recommended that he undergo another procedure with the hope that he'd be ready in the fall. These attacks on DC are misplaced and we need to do better.
Right click on the "#" sign in the original comment and grab the link there.
Thanks for helping me on my quest to avoid becoming the old, technologically illiterate, curmudgeon.
Funny, I've noticed those little symbols up there, but never gave them any thought, never knew what any of them do
The symbols to the right of the "#" sign are really useful too. You can dim comments or even hide entire threads. That really helps me when things get ugly and there are a lot of replies. I just hide them all and continue reading the other content.
you and I are different animals....
via GIPHY
Oh I'm no saint! I am certainly guilty of engaging, but I'm trying to be better since I played around with those buttons and learned about their magical powers
yup -- our WR corps is efficient but our passing game really isn't effective
Oh I love this response, leg to you sir.
Punchiest Face in ACC History
I'll raise you
Did you mean: Grayson Allen ?
there's been a few punchable faces in recent memory.
Thanks Deron. He didn't even need to swing his fist....only his jewels.
The most punchable face goes to the man who is replacing The Rat
i'm still sticking with grayson allen
I mean let's be honest, Hurley, Wojo, Battier, JJ, Scheyer, Paulus, Grayson... Hell, K himself.
Duke specializes in punchable faces.
I do not even like basketball and this is one of my all time VT fan memories.
oh, this one?
There's a difference between punchable and teabaggable
I mean I'm not here to judge, but that seems like an odd list to keep
Not so much a list as a registry
Or, in more legal terms, Exhibit A
Nothing a couple broken play hail mary's off the belly dive wouldn't fix. THAT is a GREAT fucking "passing" game.
Yes, but that would be an effective passing game
Do your neighbors kids hit wiffleballs into your yard that can never be retrieved?
or better yet, do you hit wiffleballs from your yard at your neighbors kids?
.
.
.
.
kidding DC, not trying to pile on, I read this one, and in my head I pictured my version and made myself laugh
DC everytime a positive VT take emerges.
It's been so dam long and so much has happened I can't even remember the names of those on either side of the pitch and catch.
I'm with you there. I was shocked when reading that Tre Turner is still with the team. So many folks have left that I thought he was gone this offseason.
Jaylen Jones and Da'Wain Lofton got brought up on the TSL interview. I had a gut feeling Jones could play this year after watching a couple of his games. Didn't know much about Lofton. It sounds like we got some depth behind Robinson/Turner/Payoute.
Keli Lawson is currently listed as WR as well.