So I took at the Fifa World rankings to see if they updated and sure enough they did and to my surprise USA jumped up from 20th to 10th in the world👀👀💥 one thing that confused me was Mexico went up to 9th
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Fifa rankings don't matter if we don't qualify for the World Cup. That said, being ranked in the top 8 going into the draw next year would be a phenomenal turn around after not qualifying last time. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
This is actually not true. The rankings determine which "Pot" a team is placed into. If the USA can make it into Pot 1 (Top 8 or Top 7 and the host nation). This means that they would avoid a group with heavyweight teams like France, Belgium, England, etc. Even being in Pot 2 (Top 16) is a big win. Each group in the WC is made of one team from each pot.
There's a guy on Twitter (@NatFan9) who does a really good job of tracking the rankings and he predicted this exact order before they were released. I don't know if the US has a legit chance to crack the Top 7, but if they have a strong record in the qualifiers, they will almost certainly remain Top 16.
I think you missed the, if we don't qualify part of the statement. It would be great to avoid a group of death, but you have to qualify before any of that matters.
Seems like we get the group of death no matter what if you look at the 2010 and 2014 World cups😂
You are correct, I did miss that - my bad! Having said that, if we didn't qualify, we would likely have dropped far down the rankings from the poor results so it's an accurate reflection. The high ranking now gives us the opportunity to have a high seed if we qualify.
It also affect US players' ability to get work permits to play in Europe, but that's less important.
I am glad we were rewarded for winning the two CONCACAF tournaments... but they are just that -> CONCACAF. Not exactly premier sport. What really matters is getting back to the WC and like the above poster mentions, placing high among the draw will be a good thing for us.
Correct me if my math is wrong, but the US only stands to lose ground in these first 3 games.
Our current rating is 1648 and all of these games are rated at 1645 maximum points.
Each game they play will allow them to gain (or lose) a few points based on the ranking of the opponent. The formula is in this document (link). Their first opponent is El Salvador, who currently has 1375 points - we have 1647. All you need is the points at the time of the match and plug it into the formula. For the first WCQ, we will gain 18.5 pts for a win, lose 6 points for a draw, or lose 18.5 points for a loss.
The points are updated after each match (I think) and then use the the same formula and updated points from US and Canada for the next match. Canada has about 25 more points than El Salvador so not much difference, but they will play Honduras first and they are also nearly even with them. So, if they beat Honduras they should gain a decent number of points and a US win over Canada would then be more valuable.
I'm starting to get it now
Mexico is still ranked higher than us because they started higher than us. They were ranked 11 in May and we were ranked 20. I don't fully understand the formula, but there are some games that don't count even in official competitions like the Gold Cup if the opponent is not an official FIFA opponent (Martinique is not a FIFA member and all of their players are technically still eligible to represent France - lol). I think also the difference between making the final and winning the final is not that much. Remember this is all done by computers like the old BCS rankings, no selection committee (which is good because we all know that would be the most corrupt group of people on the planet)
Link for the people: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
FIFA rankings are always weird that's why mexico is ahead of us and the Euro champion is still 5th. My understanding is FIFA rankings don't deduct points for knockout round losses which is why Belgium still is at the top. They seem to always run the table in group stages and lose early in knockout.
We just want to get to pot 1 which should be a top 7 ranking for this World Cup.
Correct, you cannot lose points in knockout matches. You can gain points, which is why the US was able to make up some ground by winning both tournaments.
This has "Group of Death" written all over it if we get a Top 8 seed
It's about time we move up in the rankings considering the resources that are put into our Men's program. Hopefully we see results on the field, but right now rankings are useless until the games are played.
If you assume binary we're number two, we're number two!