Honestly, I had expected our scoring offense to be even lower than this. Total offense certainly is putrid. And this is with MTSU and Richmond included. Ugh. Next 2 games will be really telling to see if they can develop any type of consistently effective offense. Sadly, I'm not too optimistic, but ...
EDIT: by the way, real shout out to the defense with that third down conversion stat. Remember how bad they sucked last year at that? Pretty amazing turn-around. If only we could get a decent offense to go with it. Just we said over and over and over again years ago.
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people have been complaining loudly that we aren't what we used to be, but I see good defense and special teams with questionable offense and am wondering what Hokie team they used to watch.
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The Hokie teams I used to watch are part of the problem.
I freely admit it pisses me right off that it's 2021, we have a different head coach, Stiney is long gone from the program, and we still can't seem to grow a fucking offense in Blacksburg.
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Really like the scoring defense and 3rd down defense numbers.
Our RZ defense numbers are bad, assuming that 1.000 rating means that every drive opponents have had in our RZ led to points of some kind (TD, FG)?
If that's the case (it's been a long time since I followed these traditional stats), then it could be not such a bad thing given only a 4 game sample size if most of those were FG's. I think a more helpful stat would be Def redzone TD%.
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Redzone numbers are screwy because their is no simple stat to compare them. Is 100% where you only allow 1 trip better than 70% where you allow 20 trips, yup.
90% with 6 TDs and 3 FGs is better than 90% with 9 TDs and 0 FGs.
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RZE = (Points/Available Points)/(Red Zone Appearances/Total Drives*)
*Non-garbage time drives
Team1: (28 Red Zone Points/28 possible)/(4 Appearances/10 total drives) = 1/0.4 = 2.5
Team2: (27 Red Zone Points/63 possible)/(9 Appearances/10 total drives) = .43/0.9 = .48
Team3: (28 Red Zone Points/49 possible)/(7 Appearances/10 total drives) = .57/0.7 = .81
Team 1 is scoring the maximum amount of points per appearance, even though they aren't getting to the red zone that frequently.
Team 2 is scoring on every trip, but they aren't scoring the maximum available points, even though they get to the red zone on almost every drive
Team 3 is scoring on about half of their trips, but when they do they cross the goal line.
Thoughts? It's not perfect, but it's a starting point.
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Team1 is clearly creative/effective in the RZ but they struggle to get there - probably means they struggle with sustained drives but have explosive plays (lets not forget that teams can score lots of points without ever reaching the redzone - i.e. scoring lots of 26+ yard TD plays)
Team2 is clearly able to sustain drives and move the ball effectively between the 20s but maybe doesn't have much creativity when they get down close. Probably a methodical offense but not very explosive.
Team3 is somewhere in between.
The question becomes this: Which is easier to fix - creating sustained drives to reach the red zone or creating explosive/creative plays once in the red zone?
I think I would prefer Team1 or Team3. Ideally I would love a team that is balanced and can move the ball effectively/methodically and can also produce explosive plays. If I had to chose between the two, I'd take the explosive plays. I think explosiveness has more potential to yield points than methodical drives.
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The problem with the explosive play offense is that it can leave the defense on the field for a LONG time. It is a boom or bust offense. The more methodical offense is slower and takes smaller bites but allows the defense to rest.
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this is true. good point. I had thought about that and I still think I would prefer the explosive plays to the methodical drives that stall out in the red zone. I'd take methodical drives if we didn't get skunked on 5 red zone trips against WVU. I think the scoring potential is higher if you're going to be explosive but to your point there is also more potential for the opposing team to score in bunches as well. That said, with a good defense, scoring early and often can force the opposing team to become one dimensional and, therefore, easier to defend. I think it is a viable strategy. You can go methodical and hope that your defense is good enough to hold teams to 3 scores or fewer to win games or go explosive and hope that your offense will score 6+ times and that it will be enough to win. I also think having an exciting, explosive offense helps more with recruiting talented play makers. I think I would rather lose a shootout 48-51 but feel good about the team's chances to win those more often than not versus losing 21-17 in games that feel hopelessly out of reach every time we're behind.
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Fuente said he's proud of QB Braxton Burmeister for protecting the ball so far. Adds: "I do believe there's another level of efficiency and play that he can reach and it's our job to help him get there. I know it's in there." #Hokies— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) September 27, 2021
Fuck's sake it sounds like a broken record from the coaching staff at this point. So infuriating.
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Fuente sounds like every aspiring middle manager I've ever had to deal with.
His vocabulary consists mostly of buzzwords with little relevance whatsoever to football or anything for that matter.
Pretty soon we will hear about "creating synergies" and "strategic opportunities."
It's little more than gibberish. Let's cut through the crap...your Offense is really bad by pretty much every possible metric, Justin. Maybe instead of spitting out nonsense, you can try to get out in front of it with some honest, insightful commentary??? I know that would go against your basic constitution, but why not try something different at this point?
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Crazy how we used to say Dax wouldn't lead the team in tackles because he'snot playing the mike... now Tisdale is the backer... and leading the team in tackles.
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Yeah I'm not really sure what the point of that comment was. I think Tisdale is still a higher ceiling talent (potential NFL ceiling), but Dax has been our most consistent ILB this season so far and for the most part has looked much more comfortable finally playing in his proper position.
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Didn't see the game but why did Kadum get in (it obviously wasn't because we were comfortable with the score)? Was Burmeister just that ineffective that we were trying to jumpstart something? Haven't seen anything about an injury to him or anything.
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I've seen what appear to be several pro-Loeffler comments recently. I mean, after he left, I seem to recall Bud Foster DESTROYING his offenses. Yes, it was at BC, but if he was such a great teacher and OC, Foster shouldn't have been able to own him so badly. To me, that's a sign of how bad Cornelson is that people think fondly of Loeffler. At this rate, later this season I'd expect people to wistfully reminisce about the Stinespring offenses.
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There's plenty of pro-Stiney commentary too at this point.
I think you hit the nail on the head...it has gotten so bad here under Cornelson that we now look back fondly on them.
I will add this, with Stinespring at least you could say he was a solid Recruiter and decent position coach. Loeffler was a tireless worker (dude still doesn't look like he sleeps more than 10 hours a week) and I think his passing concepts were solid. With Cornelson.....there's just really nothing......like vast wasteland of nothing.
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that's a sign of how bad Cornelson is that people think fondly of Loeffler.
While I want Corn gone yesterday, this is pretty typical. There were times in the 2000s that we looked back fondly on Rickey Bustle, too. Those feelings usually faded as folks sobered up, but still...
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One of my favorite football memories was 1999 at Virginia. It was early in the game, I believe our first play. We were in the stands near the Marching Virginians. My dad looked at me and said, I bet you Vick busts em deep right here. Next play, he hit Andre Davis for a 60+ yard bomb down the UVA sideline. Touchdown, Tech! A Ricky Bustle special indeed.
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I don't think our defense is actually as good as their performances have been. But that is a testament to the players' will and determination to get better and prove themselves. The defense is definitely trending in the right direction, but they are going to have to continue to get better game by game for us to have any success during ACC schedule. Hopefully, by the end of the year, they are actually as good or even better than these initial performances have indicated. There are some definite issues and weaknesses, but the scoring defense and 3rd down defense are really positive indicators right now. We were lucky to have UNC in week 1 though, or this could be a different story.
As for offense, man, it is tough to watch this. We have talent in Turner and Robinson and Blackshear and Holston. I love all of those players. And I love the toughness that Kaleb Smith brings. And Burmeister is clearly a very good athlete, and he seems very smart through 4 games with regard to managing the games and protecting the football. With the talent of those players, the offense should not be struggling this much. And it feels like the issues go beyond to OL performance or execution errors. The timing, rhythm, and design of the offense just feels off during most of the game.
And I liked that we were trying to get Robinson the ball quickly where he could go make a play like he did on the punt return. We want the ball in his hands, clearly. But several of those WR screens just seemed poorly blocked, or just not well designed, or maybe they were called at a bad time against the wrong defensive look. But we should be able to move the defense around a bit and get Robinson a better look, a well blocked play, where he can go make a play with YAC and room to maneuver. But it has been a struggle. And the timing of Burmeister's drops and the routes by the receivers feels off as well, and some of that seems to be on Burmeister throwing a bit late. But this isn't entirely talent or execution; it is definitely coaching and scheme.
This staff is excellent at opening drives. Burmesiter even referred to it as "opening plays". They clearly have a very specific plan for the opening drive, that has clearly been rehearsed, and the team seems to go out and execute it very well. We saw it against UNC and Richmond on opening drives. We saw it in a similar way in 3rd quarter against MTSU. The coaching staff, to their credit, is great in those situations. But outside of that is a bit of a disaster right now. We might be 3-1, but that Richmond game felt almost like a loss. CornFu really have to turn this offense around or we might get blown out in a lot of ACC games.
Again, I believe in the ability of the offensive players we have. I think the OL has to find another level. And I think the WR's and Burmeister have to figure out their timing. But the coaches ought to be coaching them in a way to foster and grow that timing and trust. I love 3-1 right now, I'm good with that. ACC is wide open this year! It would be a great time to go and claim it and make a statement. But we aren't close right now, and I just wish Fuente would come out and say that. Just come out and say we are really bad right now and lucky to be 3-1 and that we need to make a giant leap and if we don't it is going to get ugly.
I've been a true VT optimist for years, and still am. But this is me taking the rose colored glasses off for a minute. This is not looking good right now, and I hope we improve dramatically against ND.
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Our offensive numbers are awful. There is absolutely no sugarcoating it, they are awful. In Year 6 for a coaching staff that was brought in because of their offensive ingenuity, if it doesn't seriously improve before the end of the year (and lets be honest, the defenses we are about to play are a lot better than the ones we have already played) it should be enough to clean house.
The defensive numbers look better, but I am worried about that defensive red zone ranking. Definitely a bit of a red flag that the bottom could fall out.
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It's ridiculous though. Cornelson should have been relieved of duty years ago. Fuente should have been let go after last year. And Whit just sitting here watching should be publicly disciplined or have some sort of "I'm sorry I fucked up" press conference for the fan base. I mean Jesus Christ this has been obvious for several years. The money is there. I want an honest explanation before I trust our AD with my money going forward
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As rehearsed in another thread, there are a lot of things pointing to the fact that the decision from the end of last year was made by someone over Whits head.
EDIT: Literally every other hire he's made, every other move he's made point to the fact that he knows what he's doing.
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Explain that conspiracy to me when people inside the athletic department (credible sources) reportedly leaked information that pointed to the fact that Whit called a press conference to announce that VT would be moving on from Justin Fuente only to get to said press conference and look like he's completely bumfuzzled and incompetent (he's never operated like that before)... The "conspiracy", as you've labeled it, is that people over Whit's head shut things down.
Now, do I have first hand information? No. But I do trust the things I heard and the people who stated them in a very public venue. These are all credible people.
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I'm simply relating what's been stated on another media outlet where very credible sources came through with the information. It could be completely wrong information, but to be a conspiracy multiple people would have had to lie and some of them would have had to do so publicly.
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Will and Chris, on the TSL podcast the week following the press conference - they went over the press conference and how terribly awkward Whit seemed, completely not himself. They go on to talk about how their very credible source within the athletic department, one that they've gotten accurate information from in the past, gave them information about the events that would unfold... They unfolded very differently that day. I've also heard, first hand, from a couple of large donors that they expected a "change in direction" following last season as well... They were just as surprised by what happened.
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I just want to clarify that I am arguing against this myth and not trying to fight you personally.
But the idea is that Whit both told someone he trusts so much to let them know about firing our coach and called a press conference for it before he was on the same page as his boss, the university president?
Not to mention that the person Whit trusted with that information, that ended up being wrong, was loose lipped enough to go tell a major podcast?
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Your guess is as good as mine as it relates to the details, but some credible source in the athletic department knew, or thought he/she knew something (you can never hide those sorts of things from everyone, sheesh), about what was going down and then the shit hit the fan.
Have you ever seen Whit like that on a press conference? I have not.
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Idk to me he looks just as likely to be someone who just made a hard decision and isn't sure of himself as someone who just got overruled by their boss at the very last second and forced to take the fall and publicly cover up that fact
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For someone who instantly assumed that a blind box score comparison in another thread was an underhanded attempt to prop up Brad Cornelson, you are really trusting of a public figure's PR statement.
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I'm not so sure he's trusting of Whit's statement so much as skeptical of the rumors surrounding said statement. There has been a lot of rumor-mongering going on around all VT social media platforms (TKP included) ever since 2018 but most of it is just that - rumor. I think it's fine to be skeptical. Believe what you want; just don't characterize rumors as fact.
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I agree, its just funny to me that their skepticism was on full blast for a blind box score comparison, and then they read an obvious PR statement (that may be true or not, we don't know) and says: "Well, if you say so!"
Not trying to make a statement about the veracity of the rumors, just thought the dissonance in reactions was funny and worth noting.
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Part of it is because I care about the results of the situation more than the how. But it really bothers me that people are trying to read tea leaves to salvage their opinion of Whit.
Practicality tells me he either made a choice I think was stupid or he has no power to make the choice I think was the right one. So regardless of what actually transpired he is useless to me and I don't see the point of trying to absolve him.
The other part is access. I have the ability to reply to people on this site and challenge them if I think they are bluffing. I don't have any access to Whit besides email that his assistant probably sends straight to delete. And he will never publicly clarify what the F happened so... there's no point
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You're a "football is king and all other sports can eat it" guy, right?
Whit is not that kind of AD, that's been clear since he took the job. So how useful were you going to find him in the first place?
I'm willing to give him credit for good hires in the other sports, and the Fuente hire was considered a very good one at the time by many, including me. So for him to retain Fu at the start of the year strikes me as such a massively uncharacteristic lapse in judgment that I find the whispers about that decision coming from over his head believable. I have no proof, of course I have no proof. But if it was Whit and Whit alone, I don't think that's enough to fire him. You disagree, and that's fine, but I'm puzzled that this bothers you this much
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I hear you, and I'm not telling anyone what to believe here, I'm simply stating the things I know... or at least think I know based on what I've heard and seen. It could all be wrong.
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so about the red zone... when WE get there we're not likely to score, and when our opponents get there they likely are going to score. Not a good combo.
edit: holy crap... we're batting 0-fer in redzone defense????
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Just makes the inefficiencies of the offense that much worse. We would easily be 4-0 with all wins by multiple scores if the offense was even just average and not straight-up bad.
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From a quick google it looks like we've allowed 4 touchdowns on 7 redzone trips. Don't know exactly where that puts us nationally, but I wouldn't think that's as bad as it looks when you see the 1.000 for OPP redzone scores, it's not like they're getting in the endzone everytime down.
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Right - that stat needs to be taken in context. I think the chart above said we're 15th nationally in scoring D... what needs to be shown is red zone attempts defended to help provide better context. Still... every time we've let the opponent get there we're giving up points.
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What's really upsetting about Coach Fuente is that he will hold the players to account for their on-field performance and mistakes....yet that doesn't seem to apply to the coaching staff.
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II feel like I come on TKP and always spin the most positive take possible in the face of a lot of you who are very down on this team. I agree that VT is not playing up to my hopes, NTL, I feel compelled to point out that wva went to ou (ranked #4 in the country) and held a traditionally strong offense to 17 points; ou never lead in the game until that last second field goal. We scored 21 points on wva in their stadium in our first road trip and should have scored more. Those lost opportunities hurt, but maybe, just maybe, the offense is better that some are giving it credit.
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Except we followed that up with the offense scoring 14 on Richmond 🤷🏻♂️ not to completely disregard your point, but the trend doesn't appear to be we have a good offense who ran into a tough WVU defense. We also put up 17 on a UNC defense that has allowed 39 and 45 in its other two ACC games.
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I get it - I'd love nothing more than to be optimistic about the team. I will be supportive of the players - I think they're playing their hearts out. I just want to have coaches that will put the players in the best position to succeed. Fuente may be good from a lot of perspectives, but as many others have pointed out, the blind spot for offensive performance is really maddening.
Yes, maybe WVU isn't a crap team, and we we're close to them. But let's look at Richmond. They have played 4 teams. We had 318 total yards against them. Howard had 348, Lehigh had 264, and Villanova had 480. All FCS opponents other than us, we only got more yards than one!!! That's right, we only got 54 more total yards on them than 0-4 Lehigh. 0-4 Howard got 30 more yards on them and scored the same number of offensive touchdowns as us. Failing to score in the red zone is borderline mind-boggling, because most teams walk away with at least 3.
The performance in Fuente's first 2 years carried a LOT of weight with me - I fully believe he's capable of winning a lot, I think Cornelson is holding him and us back. There have been great plays called, there were stretches of games even 2 seasons ago where we scored lots of points. I think there's just several things that are probably incurable - such as a lack of reviewing opponent game tape and being able to call the right play MOST OF THE TIME, being able to coach the offensive players well enough to overcome the execution issues, keeping a QB (have we had one that started even 2 full seasons at this point?), and RECRUITING!
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I think we have the pieces to be a lot better than our stats indicate...but...most of the concern isn't with our potential, but our competence to actually realize said potential. Hence, criticism of our coaching.
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We struggled against an FCS team who played their back-up QB for the majority of the game. Please let that sink in....our offense could only score 2 TDs against an FCS team...
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though their backup QB should have little to do with our offensive woes. I get that our offense is frustrating, but their QB status is irrelevant to our scoring.
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Fair point and you are correct. I was more responding to the overall theme of the post I was replying to which, though over simplified was that Virginia Tech Football team was better than what we seem to believe it to be.
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Something is off with OU this year. Rattler is not near as good as he was last year. They are breaking in new skill players. I wouldn't use that to justify the VT offense being any good or WVU's defense being the 85 bears
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Their OL is not getting the job done at all. The lack of a run game and increased pressure has made Rattler look bad at times. He was already prone to turnovers last year, but now the explosive PA passes are gone and he doesn't have as much time in the pocket.
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If the entirety of the ACC wasn't a mess this year I think it would definitely be the last we see of Fu in Bburg, but I have the feeling we will get 7-8 wins and maybe even an ACCCG berth allowing Fu one more year, especially if he finally moves past corn. I don't see VT initiating the firing unless we are 6-6 or worse. I am hoping that Fu does enough to get hired away and all parties can move on.
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The only way we get 7-8 wins at this point, is if the defense continues to improve incrementally. If they plateau or suffer a critical injury or two, then I don't think they can do enough to help win games. Our offense is not good enough if the defense plateaus, unless the OL gets fixed fast! If the OL doesn't get fixed and the defense plateaus, then ACC schedule is going to be rough for the Hokies.
If defense continues to improve incrementally, then J-Ham, the defense, and a struggling ACC just might save CornFu their jobs. I'm rooting for this defense to keep it going, and I'm rooting for the OL to get fixed. Will Dsanzi be coming back soon?? Do we have an update on his injury?
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Same worry here 757. Exactly why I so badly wanted at the start of the season (and still want now) at least 9 wins or at least 8 losses. Fine with 8-4 + a bowl win to get to 9 wins. That would be a substantial improvement over last year and the recruiting is a substantial improvement over the last 2, although it is far from great given the size of the class boosting it. But that would be good enough. If we can't be good enough, I want to make sure we are sufficiently bad that Fu is gone and not another year of doing the absolute minimum to stay on. After last year, I'm not sure even 5-7 would be bad enough.
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Cornelsen seeing that our offense is putting up more yards than Clemson
You know how Clemson's offense has been a dumpster fire? The Hokies are right there with them - 13th and 14th in ACC yards per play. pic.twitter.com/OmWeQWhDmO— Pete B. (@petebvt) September 28, 2021
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When Stiney put those numbers up, the narrative was he was keeping VT from an MNC, wasting a national championship defense and turning away recruits like Boyd and Harvin. His credentials as a P5 coach were questioned in fact.
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There were serious character issues with Harvin. Meyer shut down his BS much like he did Aaron Hernandez.
Fast forward 10 years later, and Beamer took a chance on Holland Fisher (he's in jail), and Trevon Hill (fought with and kicked off the team after the ODU game). So, yeah...
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Evans, Jackson, Willis, Hooker, Patterson, and Burmeister.
What's wrong with @FSUFootball?#Noles QBs who have taken snaps since 2014 (Jameis' last season):McKenzie MiltonJordan TravisChubba PurdyTate RodemakerJames BlackmanAlex HornibrookDeondre FrancoisJJ CosentinoSean MacGuireEverett GolsonQB is everything in #CFB.— Matt Hayes (@MattHayesCFB) September 29, 2021
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We've had 4 starting QBs in the last 3 years. (Burmeister, QP4, Hooker, Willis)
The previous 2 years, we had 2 starting QBs (one from the previous stat (Willis) and Jackson). Five years, Five QBs.
The previous year we had 1 (Evans) Six years, Six QBs
The previous 2 years we had 2 (Brewer and Motley). <-- This is how far back we have to go to get a QB who has started 20 games. Eight years, Eight QBs
The previous 3 years we had 1. (LT3) <-- This is how far back we have to go to get a QB to finish multiple seasons. Eleven years, Nine QBs
The previous 5 years, we had 2 (Tyrod and Glennon) <-- This is how far back we have to go to get a QB who started in all 4 seasons. 16 years, 11 QBs, not counting backups who took snaps.
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Random question: sorry if this has been touched already, but is it in the realm of possibility that Fuente is doing el crapo job coaching on purpose solely for the fact that he'll get let go & receive his fatcat buyout???
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lol this is so true. I don't think Fuente is tanking on purpose. I believe he is a man with integrity and I don't believe a man with integrity would do that. I also believe that Fuente is a compassionate man and he cares deeply about his friends. I also believe that, because of this, he refuses to see the short comings of his friends on staff. We don't suck because Fuente wants to get fired and make lots of money for nothing.
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Comments
So we are good at special teams (other than FGs), Pass defense and penalties
We are really bad at offense, red zone offense, and red zone defense.
EDIT: didn't type penalties ... stupid distracting puppy (he's not stupid, he's adorable)
well... I guess we've been pretty good from a penalty stand point.
Still better than the Bears.
<12 yards per quarter vs the Browns today
Agreed. Those stats are offensive.
I can't remember, is this year one for Fuente, or was that last year?
Honestly, I had expected our scoring offense to be even lower than this. Total offense certainly is putrid. And this is with MTSU and Richmond included. Ugh. Next 2 games will be really telling to see if they can develop any type of consistently effective offense. Sadly, I'm not too optimistic, but ...
EDIT: by the way, real shout out to the defense with that third down conversion stat. Remember how bad they sucked last year at that? Pretty amazing turn-around. If only we could get a decent offense to go with it. Just we said over and over and over again years ago.
people have been complaining loudly that we aren't what we used to be, but I see good defense and special teams with questionable offense and am wondering what Hokie team they used to watch.
The balance between offense, defense, and special teams is familiar.
However we are far down the rankings compared to where we were in Hokie teams past.
The Hokie teams I used to watch are part of the problem.
I freely admit it pisses me right off that it's 2021, we have a different head coach, Stiney is long gone from the program, and we still can't seem to grow a fucking offense in Blacksburg.
Really like the scoring defense and 3rd down defense numbers.
Our RZ defense numbers are bad, assuming that 1.000 rating means that every drive opponents have had in our RZ led to points of some kind (TD, FG)?
If that's the case (it's been a long time since I followed these traditional stats), then it could be not such a bad thing given only a 4 game sample size if most of those were FG's. I think a more helpful stat would be Def redzone TD%.
Redzone numbers are screwy because their is no simple stat to compare them. Is 100% where you only allow 1 trip better than 70% where you allow 20 trips, yup.
90% with 6 TDs and 3 FGs is better than 90% with 9 TDs and 0 FGs.
RZE = (Points/Available Points)/(Red Zone Appearances/Total Drives*)
*Non-garbage time drives
Team1: (28 Red Zone Points/28 possible)/(4 Appearances/10 total drives) = 1/0.4 = 2.5
Team2: (27 Red Zone Points/63 possible)/(9 Appearances/10 total drives) = .43/0.9 = .48
Team3: (28 Red Zone Points/49 possible)/(7 Appearances/10 total drives) = .57/0.7 = .81
Team 1 is scoring the maximum amount of points per appearance, even though they aren't getting to the red zone that frequently.
Team 2 is scoring on every trip, but they aren't scoring the maximum available points, even though they get to the red zone on almost every drive
Team 3 is scoring on about half of their trips, but when they do they cross the goal line.
Thoughts? It's not perfect, but it's a starting point.
Team1 is clearly creative/effective in the RZ but they struggle to get there - probably means they struggle with sustained drives but have explosive plays (lets not forget that teams can score lots of points without ever reaching the redzone - i.e. scoring lots of 26+ yard TD plays)
Team2 is clearly able to sustain drives and move the ball effectively between the 20s but maybe doesn't have much creativity when they get down close. Probably a methodical offense but not very explosive.
Team3 is somewhere in between.
The question becomes this: Which is easier to fix - creating sustained drives to reach the red zone or creating explosive/creative plays once in the red zone?
I think I would prefer Team1 or Team3. Ideally I would love a team that is balanced and can move the ball effectively/methodically and can also produce explosive plays. If I had to chose between the two, I'd take the explosive plays. I think explosiveness has more potential to yield points than methodical drives.
The problem with the explosive play offense is that it can leave the defense on the field for a LONG time. It is a boom or bust offense. The more methodical offense is slower and takes smaller bites but allows the defense to rest.
this is true. good point. I had thought about that and I still think I would prefer the explosive plays to the methodical drives that stall out in the red zone. I'd take methodical drives if we didn't get skunked on 5 red zone trips against WVU. I think the scoring potential is higher if you're going to be explosive but to your point there is also more potential for the opposing team to score in bunches as well. That said, with a good defense, scoring early and often can force the opposing team to become one dimensional and, therefore, easier to defend. I think it is a viable strategy. You can go methodical and hope that your defense is good enough to hold teams to 3 scores or fewer to win games or go explosive and hope that your offense will score 6+ times and that it will be enough to win. I also think having an exciting, explosive offense helps more with recruiting talented play makers. I think I would rather lose a shootout 48-51 but feel good about the team's chances to win those more often than not versus losing 21-17 in games that feel hopelessly out of reach every time we're behind.
Right now I'd prefer team 2, they have a kicker that is 100% in the red zone ... that would be nice.
So what if a team scored every drive? That means they get a 1.0. so how does a 2.5 and a .48 compare to a perfect score?
Still working on it. I think I'm going to have to change the formula
In my experience every formula can benefit from a log transformation. Best to "normalize" team performance.
So we replaced with for a guy we are paying more money to and we still don't have a good offense? hhhhmmmm
via GIPHY
For those who prefer advanced analytics that are adjusted for number of plays, down & distance, etc, I recommend https://www.cfb-graphs.com:
It's pretty amazing that we have a negative EPA when rushing on offense. Not sure how we managed that one, but Woof
We are 30th in the country in % of run plays. Almost 60% of our plays are runs.
Pretty infuriating to see that 60% of our plays have a negative EPA. We definitely need to be passing more.
don't worry! We're just waiting for ND to really open up the playbook!
We have to wait until 2027? Sounds about right...
Thanks for the breakdown!
Never fear, we can be more EfFiCiEnT
Fuck's sake it sounds like a broken record from the coaching staff at this point. So infuriating.
He just needs to transfer and then he'll reach that "level of efficiency" Fuente "knows is in there"
Fuente sounds like every aspiring middle manager I've ever had to deal with.
His vocabulary consists mostly of buzzwords with little relevance whatsoever to football or anything for that matter.
Pretty soon we will hear about "creating synergies" and "strategic opportunities."
It's little more than gibberish. Let's cut through the crap...your Offense is really bad by pretty much every possible metric, Justin. Maybe instead of spitting out nonsense, you can try to get out in front of it with some honest, insightful commentary??? I know that would go against your basic constitution, but why not try something different at this point?
Is this the Hatin' On Justin Fuente thread?
Joking...I agree with everything in your post
Aren't they all, at this point?
Crazy how we used to say Dax wouldn't lead the team in tackles because he'snot playing the mike... now Tisdale is the backer... and leading the team in tackles.
And Dax is right behind him at Mike? I think we all expected that Dax would be better at Mike than backer.
Yeah I'm not really sure what the point of that comment was. I think Tisdale is still a higher ceiling talent (potential NFL ceiling), but Dax has been our most consistent ILB this season so far and for the most part has looked much more comfortable finally playing in his proper position.
Didn't see the game but why did Kadum get in (it obviously wasn't because we were comfortable with the score)? Was Burmeister just that ineffective that we were trying to jumpstart something? Haven't seen anything about an injury to him or anything.
No just brilliant strategy from our OC
I think Fuente wanted to get Kadum a 'meaningful' drive.
I actually don't hate the idea of it, but don't do it when the ball is on our own 1; do it in a more favorable drive.
We took Soct Loefller for granted
I've seen what appear to be several pro-Loeffler comments recently. I mean, after he left, I seem to recall Bud Foster DESTROYING his offenses. Yes, it was at BC, but if he was such a great teacher and OC, Foster shouldn't have been able to own him so badly. To me, that's a sign of how bad Cornelson is that people think fondly of Loeffler. At this rate, later this season I'd expect people to wistfully reminisce about the Stinespring offenses.
There's plenty of pro-Stiney commentary too at this point.
I think you hit the nail on the head...it has gotten so bad here under Cornelson that we now look back fondly on them.
I will add this, with Stinespring at least you could say he was a solid Recruiter and decent position coach. Loeffler was a tireless worker (dude still doesn't look like he sleeps more than 10 hours a week) and I think his passing concepts were solid. With Cornelson.....there's just really nothing......like vast wasteland of nothing.
Not like I love Corny, but it's more like recency/confirmation bias.
At least Stiney was a helluva recruiter.
While I want Corn gone yesterday, this is pretty typical. There were times in the 2000s that we looked back fondly on Rickey Bustle, too. Those feelings usually faded as folks sobered up, but still...
I still see a bomb tossed after a turnover and say to myself it is a Ricky Bustle special.
One of my favorite football memories was 1999 at Virginia. It was early in the game, I believe our first play. We were in the stands near the Marching Virginians. My dad looked at me and said, I bet you Vick busts em deep right here. Next play, he hit Andre Davis for a 60+ yard bomb down the UVA sideline. Touchdown, Tech! A Ricky Bustle special indeed.
I don't think our defense is actually as good as their performances have been. But that is a testament to the players' will and determination to get better and prove themselves. The defense is definitely trending in the right direction, but they are going to have to continue to get better game by game for us to have any success during ACC schedule. Hopefully, by the end of the year, they are actually as good or even better than these initial performances have indicated. There are some definite issues and weaknesses, but the scoring defense and 3rd down defense are really positive indicators right now. We were lucky to have UNC in week 1 though, or this could be a different story.
As for offense, man, it is tough to watch this. We have talent in Turner and Robinson and Blackshear and Holston. I love all of those players. And I love the toughness that Kaleb Smith brings. And Burmeister is clearly a very good athlete, and he seems very smart through 4 games with regard to managing the games and protecting the football. With the talent of those players, the offense should not be struggling this much. And it feels like the issues go beyond to OL performance or execution errors. The timing, rhythm, and design of the offense just feels off during most of the game.
And I liked that we were trying to get Robinson the ball quickly where he could go make a play like he did on the punt return. We want the ball in his hands, clearly. But several of those WR screens just seemed poorly blocked, or just not well designed, or maybe they were called at a bad time against the wrong defensive look. But we should be able to move the defense around a bit and get Robinson a better look, a well blocked play, where he can go make a play with YAC and room to maneuver. But it has been a struggle. And the timing of Burmeister's drops and the routes by the receivers feels off as well, and some of that seems to be on Burmeister throwing a bit late. But this isn't entirely talent or execution; it is definitely coaching and scheme.
This staff is excellent at opening drives. Burmesiter even referred to it as "opening plays". They clearly have a very specific plan for the opening drive, that has clearly been rehearsed, and the team seems to go out and execute it very well. We saw it against UNC and Richmond on opening drives. We saw it in a similar way in 3rd quarter against MTSU. The coaching staff, to their credit, is great in those situations. But outside of that is a bit of a disaster right now. We might be 3-1, but that Richmond game felt almost like a loss. CornFu really have to turn this offense around or we might get blown out in a lot of ACC games.
Again, I believe in the ability of the offensive players we have. I think the OL has to find another level. And I think the WR's and Burmeister have to figure out their timing. But the coaches ought to be coaching them in a way to foster and grow that timing and trust. I love 3-1 right now, I'm good with that. ACC is wide open this year! It would be a great time to go and claim it and make a statement. But we aren't close right now, and I just wish Fuente would come out and say that. Just come out and say we are really bad right now and lucky to be 3-1 and that we need to make a giant leap and if we don't it is going to get ugly.
I've been a true VT optimist for years, and still am. But this is me taking the rose colored glasses off for a minute. This is not looking good right now, and I hope we improve dramatically against ND.
Our offensive numbers are awful. There is absolutely no sugarcoating it, they are awful. In Year 6 for a coaching staff that was brought in because of their offensive ingenuity, if it doesn't seriously improve before the end of the year (and lets be honest, the defenses we are about to play are a lot better than the ones we have already played) it should be enough to clean house.
The defensive numbers look better, but I am worried about that defensive red zone ranking. Definitely a bit of a red flag that the bottom could fall out.
It's ridiculous though. Cornelson should have been relieved of duty years ago. Fuente should have been let go after last year. And Whit just sitting here watching should be publicly disciplined or have some sort of "I'm sorry I fucked up" press conference for the fan base. I mean Jesus Christ this has been obvious for several years. The money is there. I want an honest explanation before I trust our AD with my money going forward
As rehearsed in another thread, there are a lot of things pointing to the fact that the decision from the end of last year was made by someone over Whits head.
EDIT: Literally every other hire he's made, every other move he's made point to the fact that he knows what he's doing.
That is the exact opposite of what he himself has said. You are believing in a conspiracy out of pure hope
Explain that conspiracy to me when people inside the athletic department (credible sources) reportedly leaked information that pointed to the fact that Whit called a press conference to announce that VT would be moving on from Justin Fuente only to get to said press conference and look like he's completely bumfuzzled and incompetent (he's never operated like that before)... The "conspiracy", as you've labeled it, is that people over Whit's head shut things down.
Now, do I have first hand information? No. But I do trust the things I heard and the people who stated them in a very public venue. These are all credible people.
The "conspiracy" is much more plausible than the thought that Whit called a press conference to announce Fuente will keep his job.
I'm simply relating what's been stated on another media outlet where very credible sources came through with the information. It could be completely wrong information, but to be a conspiracy multiple people would have had to lie and some of them would have had to do so publicly.
Ok, which credible people can you call out by name?
I'll rehearse this one more time:
Will and Chris, on the TSL podcast the week following the press conference - they went over the press conference and how terribly awkward Whit seemed, completely not himself. They go on to talk about how their very credible source within the athletic department, one that they've gotten accurate information from in the past, gave them information about the events that would unfold... They unfolded very differently that day. I've also heard, first hand, from a couple of large donors that they expected a "change in direction" following last season as well... They were just as surprised by what happened.
I just want to clarify that I am arguing against this myth and not trying to fight you personally.
But the idea is that Whit both told someone he trusts so much to let them know about firing our coach and called a press conference for it before he was on the same page as his boss, the university president?
Not to mention that the person Whit trusted with that information, that ended up being wrong, was loose lipped enough to go tell a major podcast?
Your guess is as good as mine as it relates to the details, but some credible source in the athletic department knew, or thought he/she knew something (you can never hide those sorts of things from everyone, sheesh), about what was going down and then the shit hit the fan.
Have you ever seen Whit like that on a press conference? I have not.
Idk to me he looks just as likely to be someone who just made a hard decision and isn't sure of himself as someone who just got overruled by their boss at the very last second and forced to take the fall and publicly cover up that fact
For someone who instantly assumed that a blind box score comparison in another thread was an underhanded attempt to prop up Brad Cornelson, you are really trusting of a public figure's PR statement.
Right? What Whit said isn't proof of a conspiracy, but it's also not proof of no conspiracy
I still haven't heard if I was right or not.
I'm not so sure he's trusting of Whit's statement so much as skeptical of the rumors surrounding said statement. There has been a lot of rumor-mongering going on around all VT social media platforms (TKP included) ever since 2018 but most of it is just that - rumor. I think it's fine to be skeptical. Believe what you want; just don't characterize rumors as fact.
I agree, its just funny to me that their skepticism was on full blast for a blind box score comparison, and then they read an obvious PR statement (that may be true or not, we don't know) and says: "Well, if you say so!"
Not trying to make a statement about the veracity of the rumors, just thought the dissonance in reactions was funny and worth noting.
Part of it is because I care about the results of the situation more than the how. But it really bothers me that people are trying to read tea leaves to salvage their opinion of Whit.
Practicality tells me he either made a choice I think was stupid or he has no power to make the choice I think was the right one. So regardless of what actually transpired he is useless to me and I don't see the point of trying to absolve him.
The other part is access. I have the ability to reply to people on this site and challenge them if I think they are bluffing. I don't have any access to Whit besides email that his assistant probably sends straight to delete. And he will never publicly clarify what the F happened so... there's no point
You're a "football is king and all other sports can eat it" guy, right?
Whit is not that kind of AD, that's been clear since he took the job. So how useful were you going to find him in the first place?
I'm willing to give him credit for good hires in the other sports, and the Fuente hire was considered a very good one at the time by many, including me. So for him to retain Fu at the start of the year strikes me as such a massively uncharacteristic lapse in judgment that I find the whispers about that decision coming from over his head believable. I have no proof, of course I have no proof. But if it was Whit and Whit alone, I don't think that's enough to fire him. You disagree, and that's fine, but I'm puzzled that this bothers you this much
I'm bothered this much because I think it really hurt our chances of hiring a good replacement
I hear you, and I'm not telling anyone what to believe here, I'm simply stating the things I know... or at least think I know based on what I've heard and seen. It could all be wrong.
Upvote for respectfully sharing your opinion
Of course he hasn't said that, why would he?
so about the red zone... when WE get there we're not likely to score, and when our opponents get there they
likelyare going to score. Not a good combo.edit: holy crap... we're batting 0-fer in redzone defense????
Just makes the inefficiencies of the offense that much worse. We would easily be 4-0 with all wins by multiple scores if the offense was even just average and not straight-up bad.
From a quick google it looks like we've allowed 4 touchdowns on 7 redzone trips. Don't know exactly where that puts us nationally, but I wouldn't think that's as bad as it looks when you see the 1.000 for OPP redzone scores, it's not like they're getting in the endzone everytime down.
Right - that stat needs to be taken in context. I think the chart above said we're 15th nationally in scoring D... what needs to be shown is red zone attempts defended to help provide better context. Still... every time we've let the opponent get there we're giving up points.
What's really upsetting about Coach Fuente is that he will hold the players to account for their on-field performance and mistakes....yet that doesn't seem to apply to the coaching staff.
I guess Burden was let go because he was doing such a great job..
Fair point. +1 Leg. But I believe Coach Burden was a holdover from Frank Beamer's last offensive coaching staff.
II feel like I come on TKP and always spin the most positive take possible in the face of a lot of you who are very down on this team. I agree that VT is not playing up to my hopes, NTL, I feel compelled to point out that wva went to ou (ranked #4 in the country) and held a traditionally strong offense to 17 points; ou never lead in the game until that last second field goal. We scored 21 points on wva in their stadium in our first road trip and should have scored more. Those lost opportunities hurt, but maybe, just maybe, the offense is better that some are giving it credit.
i had a similar feeling, but our crowd also isnt one to put a lot into moral victories. We lost a game we should have easily won.
Except we followed that up with the offense scoring 14 on Richmond 🤷🏻♂️ not to completely disregard your point, but the trend doesn't appear to be we have a good offense who ran into a tough WVU defense. We also put up 17 on a UNC defense that has allowed 39 and 45 in its other two ACC games.
And Georgia State put up the same 17 against UNC that we did.
I get it - I'd love nothing more than to be optimistic about the team. I will be supportive of the players - I think they're playing their hearts out. I just want to have coaches that will put the players in the best position to succeed. Fuente may be good from a lot of perspectives, but as many others have pointed out, the blind spot for offensive performance is really maddening.
Yes, maybe WVU isn't a crap team, and we we're close to them. But let's look at Richmond. They have played 4 teams. We had 318 total yards against them. Howard had 348, Lehigh had 264, and Villanova had 480. All FCS opponents other than us, we only got more yards than one!!! That's right, we only got 54 more total yards on them than 0-4 Lehigh. 0-4 Howard got 30 more yards on them and scored the same number of offensive touchdowns as us. Failing to score in the red zone is borderline mind-boggling, because most teams walk away with at least 3.
The performance in Fuente's first 2 years carried a LOT of weight with me - I fully believe he's capable of winning a lot, I think Cornelson is holding him and us back. There have been great plays called, there were stretches of games even 2 seasons ago where we scored lots of points. I think there's just several things that are probably incurable - such as a lack of reviewing opponent game tape and being able to call the right play MOST OF THE TIME, being able to coach the offensive players well enough to overcome the execution issues, keeping a QB (have we had one that started even 2 full seasons at this point?), and RECRUITING!
I think we have the pieces to be a lot better than our stats indicate...but...most of the concern isn't with our potential, but our competence to actually realize said potential. Hence, criticism of our coaching.
Counter point for your consideration:
We struggled against an FCS team who played their back-up QB for the majority of the game. Please let that sink in....our offense could only score 2 TDs against an FCS team...
though their backup QB should have little to do with our offensive woes. I get that our offense is frustrating, but their QB status is irrelevant to our scoring.
Fair point and you are correct. I was more responding to the overall theme of the post I was replying to which, though over simplified was that Virginia Tech Football team was better than what we seem to believe it to be.
Something is off with OU this year. Rattler is not near as good as he was last year. They are breaking in new skill players. I wouldn't use that to justify the VT offense being any good or WVU's defense being the 85 bears
Their OL is not getting the job done at all. The lack of a run game and increased pressure has made Rattler look bad at times. He was already prone to turnovers last year, but now the explosive PA passes are gone and he doesn't have as much time in the pocket.
Based on the TOP numbers, we look to be trending to a 6-6 or 7-5 season
My biggest worry is that we finish with 7 wins and that that ends up being enough to buy CornFu one more year
If the entirety of the ACC wasn't a mess this year I think it would definitely be the last we see of Fu in Bburg, but I have the feeling we will get 7-8 wins and maybe even an ACCCG berth allowing Fu one more year, especially if he finally moves past corn. I don't see VT initiating the firing unless we are 6-6 or worse. I am hoping that Fu does enough to get hired away and all parties can move on.
The only way we get 7-8 wins at this point, is if the defense continues to improve incrementally. If they plateau or suffer a critical injury or two, then I don't think they can do enough to help win games. Our offense is not good enough if the defense plateaus, unless the OL gets fixed fast! If the OL doesn't get fixed and the defense plateaus, then ACC schedule is going to be rough for the Hokies.
If defense continues to improve incrementally, then J-Ham, the defense, and a struggling ACC just might save CornFu their jobs. I'm rooting for this defense to keep it going, and I'm rooting for the OL to get fixed. Will Dsanzi be coming back soon?? Do we have an update on his injury?
7 wins won't do it, especially if one of those isn't UVA.
Same worry here 757. Exactly why I so badly wanted at the start of the season (and still want now) at least 9 wins or at least 8 losses. Fine with 8-4 + a bowl win to get to 9 wins. That would be a substantial improvement over last year and the recruiting is a substantial improvement over the last 2, although it is far from great given the size of the class boosting it. But that would be good enough. If we can't be good enough, I want to make sure we are sufficiently bad that Fu is gone and not another year of doing the absolute minimum to stay on. After last year, I'm not sure even 5-7 would be bad enough.
Took me way too long to figure this out. Good work.
Cornelsen seeing that our offense is putting up more yards than Clemson
UVA has thrown for 1000 more yards than us 4 games in.... my gah
Whoa there lets not give them too much credit. 959 more yards*
When Stiney put those numbers up, the narrative was he was keeping VT from an MNC, wasting a national championship defense and turning away recruits like Boyd and Harvin. His credentials as a P5 coach were questioned in fact.
You might know more about this than me, but I've always heard there was never much hope of keeping Harvin in state.
As I recall Harvin made it very clear he wasn't interested in staying in state.
Concur. We had a better shot with Boyd, almost no shot with Harvin.
There were serious character issues with Harvin. Meyer shut down his BS much like he did Aaron Hernandez.
Fast forward 10 years later, and Beamer took a chance on Holland Fisher (he's in jail), and Trevon Hill (fought with and kicked off the team after the ODU game). So, yeah...
Not unlike VT since 2015 after Brewer:
Evans, Jackson, Willis, Hooker, Patterson, and Burmeister.
Lol Everett Golson, forgot about that dude
We've had 4 starting QBs in the last 3 years. (Burmeister, QP4, Hooker, Willis)
The previous 2 years, we had 2 starting QBs (one from the previous stat (Willis) and Jackson). Five years, Five QBs.
The previous year we had 1 (Evans) Six years, Six QBs
The previous 2 years we had 2 (Brewer and Motley). <-- This is how far back we have to go to get a QB who has started 20 games. Eight years, Eight QBs
The previous 3 years we had 1. (LT3) <-- This is how far back we have to go to get a QB to finish multiple seasons. Eleven years, Nine QBs
The previous 5 years, we had 2 (Tyrod and Glennon) <-- This is how far back we have to go to get a QB who started in all 4 seasons. 16 years, 11 QBs, not counting backups who took snaps.
Random question: sorry if this has been touched already, but is it in the realm of possibility that Fuente is doing el crapo job coaching on purpose solely for the fact that he'll get let go & receive his fatcat buyout???
Never attribute to maliciousness what can as easily be attributed to incompetence
Oh man. An alternative wording of that was in my undergraduate research biochemistry lab at Tech. Something like:
Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.
Not sure if it was on Dr. Bevan's door or Dr. Bunce's.
I mean I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I just don't think the possibility can/is completely eliminated.
Starting off the season 3-1 to get your buyout?
There's probably a more efficient way of getting that done.
lol this is so true. I don't think Fuente is tanking on purpose. I believe he is a man with integrity and I don't believe a man with integrity would do that. I also believe that Fuente is a compassionate man and he cares deeply about his friends. I also believe that, because of this, he refuses to see the short comings of his friends on staff. We don't suck because Fuente wants to get fired and make lots of money for nothing.
I get that, but what if he's attempting a more "subtle" approach?? I don't think it's completely removed from the realm of possibility.
it's unlikely. drop it
Considering that would tank his already shitty stock when trying to find his next coaching job, I'm going to put this squarely in the nonsense column.
I love this team and these players and their effort. But I am done with CornFu.