VT value as an CFB alignment target

This article may be a tad dated, but the points it makes are still valid today. We've got a lot to offer in football! And it doesn't even mention the DC TV market! Virginia Tech is a Top 20 College Football Program

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That article is 10 years old.

Uh, no. Did you even look at the article? It provides stats from 2020, so how about 2 years old?


April 13th, 2012. Did they update it with more recent stats that I missed? Could be the confusion

Jack Bauer fears no one. Except Xavier Adibi.

So a few things. First, the date on the article is April 13th, 2012 (a fact easily understood via even a cursory glance at the top of the article), and the very first sentence references Oliver Luck as the AD at WVU, a post he left in 2014. Second, I did read the article, and just now read it again, finding no reference to specific data/stats from 2020. Third, the article mentions the "very recent" addition of Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC (which, again, happened in 2012).

So no, the article is not from a couple of years ago.

Maybe I overlooked something. If you care to clarify and drop the attitude, I'll be happy to reverse that -1 I just gave you.

I stand corrected.
I was talking about the date of the 1st article posted in the header. I didn't realize you were referring to my second post, and I didn't realize that one was that old.
I don't have an attitude, it was an honest mistake.


Fair enough. Thanks for explaining.

This article is focused on "How attractive is the Head Coaching job at Virginia Tech?" NOT "How attractive is Virginia Tech to a CFB super conference?" The Big 10/SEC DGAF about stability or our current path to the post season.

VT football is more prestigious than half the SEC and half the B10. But those schools already have a spot in any potential super-conference.

The questions are:

  • Will VT bring enough additional value to a super conference?
  • Is VT a cultural fit in the new conference?
  • Is a move to a new conference financially beneficial to VT (accounting for the ACC grant of rights, travel costs, etc)?

TL;DR - this piece is largely irrelevant to our current quandary.

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My Answers to the questions:

1 - The primary additional value, given that these TV contracts play such a huge role in these movements, is the Mid-Atlantic/DMV market that VT would give access to. This is the original reason VT was viewed highly by the SEC as a potential member, outspokenly so by former SEC Commissioner Mike Slive. When you add that we have a legitimate football culture, more similar in intensity, fan involvement, tailgating, etc. to an SEC school that's a less important value add, but it's still there.

2 - While VT isn't going to be aligned with the deep south schools of the SEC in terms of primary student body culture, I think this is a little bit overstated in terms of a concern. College kids are college kids, and VT's football-specific culture is certainly more similar to the SEC than the ACC. We would instantly be a better cultural fit than Missouri, for example.

3 - Yes, the difference in money would make up for the travel costs almost instantly. We would probably need some shrewd legal navigation to deal with the GOR thing. I won't speak on that definitively until I understand it better. Not only is the gap between SEC/B1G money and the others already significant, it's reasonable to expect that gap to continue to grow as well both short and long term, particularly in relation to the long term ACC deal in place.

Yea I largely agree with 1 & 2. #3 I have doubts about. As I (non lawyer) understand it, the GOR is apparently a huge roadblock. Andy Staples had a piece on this in The Athletic, where a lawyer got a copy of the GOR and said it would result in hundreds of millinos in forfeited TV revenue. It could be challenged in court, but the document is so (intentionally) vague, that it's tough to argue against.

That said, new B10 deal could easily be $100m/school/year, so maybe that could make a $200m loss somewhat palpable.

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An anonymous source at an ACC school said they'll find out in court as soon as a conference asks them to.

Vagueness and ambiguity generally favor the party challenging the document, legally

Not according to the lawyer Andy Staples interviewed. It's intentionally structured in a way that would make it hard to challenge.

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If you're trying to enforce terms of a legal contract, an insurance police, etc. then courts have generally held that the contract is more difficult to enforce, specifically, because the contract is vague and ambiguous. The intent and the terms then become open to interpretation

Maybe more difficult to enforce, but requiring a lot more lawyering to vacate, due to the ambiguity. Thus also more difficult to vacate.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

It's up to them to try to enforce the contract. They have to prove the terms not the other way around

That's not what the lawyer in Andy Staple's piece said. The contract has already been agreed to. The burden is on the school to prove that it is invalid. According to this individual, there's four ways to challenge a GoR:

  1. Leave the conference, but leave your rights with the conference - eg; play an SEC schedule, but ACC has broadcast rights - would be legal, but zero chance the SEC would agree to this
  2. Claim the contract is invalid - this would be a legal challenge. First, it's extremely unclear where the lawsuit would take place. This is a feature, not a bug - it's expected that there would be months of litigation just to determine where the lawsuit would take place. Even if you passed that hurdle, "what you have is a situation where you're tying up potentially billions of dollars of rights in three or four pages. That leaves a lot of questions about what everybody was agreeing to at the time." This is not a straight forward case.
  3. Negotiate an exit fee - Less risk than option #2, but still quite expensive.
  4. Hope the league dissolves on its own

Best case scenario is a package deal where 4 schools go to the SEC, 4 schools go to the B10, effectively dissolving the conference. This would have to be a highly coordinated effort though.

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4 is what I expect, except for that stupid UNC-Duke thing. UNC, UVA, GT, Miami to B1G. VT, Clemson, FSU, NC State to SEC. Duke and friends back to the Big East is just too clean to happen.

5. Leave. Tell the ACC to pound sand. The SEC pays the school directly based on their revenue share. Claim that the contract was vague and ambiguous when the ACC sues VT. Force the ACC to prove that it wasn't and what is owed. Settle out of court in 3 years for pennies in the dollar, if there is still an ACC with members who are financing the litigation.

That's option 3. Although I'm not sure why you're convinced that we'll settle for 'pennies on the dollar.' Actual lawyers who have passed the bar seem to think otherwise.

The SEC pays the school directly based on their revenue share.

This is false. SEC distributes money equally among it member institutions (source from 2021):

The SEC on Thursday said revenue rose to $777.8 million during the 2020-21 fiscal year -- an increase of $120.1 million from the previous year.

The money will be divided equally among the conference's 14 schools. Excluding bowl expenses, each school will receive roughly $54.6 million.

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Option 3 implies that an exit fee would need to be negotiated prior to leaving. I'm saying leave then negotiate later. By pennies on the dollar, I'm saying a fraction of what the actual GOR would be under a new(to VT) SEC tv deal and schedule would pay. Also if other schools are bailing, then scenario 4 starts to seem plausible, which would help your negotiating stance. When I said the SEC pays the school directly, it means just that. The ACC can't intercept the money from, say, the tv network. They'd have to sue or settle, to get GOR. CBS pays the SEC, the SEC pays VT. I'm pretty sure what I'm describing is how MD left the ACC, and they paid a fraction of the exit fee.

Option 3 implies that an exit fee would need to be negotiated prior to leaving.

Got it - yea, I did not interpret it this way, nor do I think that is realistic. I imagine any negotiation would come after the fact.

Also if other schools are bailing, then scenario 4 starts to seem plausible, which would help your negotiating stance.

100% agree

I'm pretty sure what I'm describing is how MD left the ACC, and they paid a fraction of the exit fee.

MD left the ACC before the Grant of Rights was established (GoR was established in response to UMD leaving). I get that the process is probably similar, but every lawyer and media member seems to think this Grant of Rights is designed to be really, really, really expensive to break. I'm going to assume that's the case until I hear/read otherwise.

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Any lawyer will argue or say, whatever you pay them to argue or say.

LOL. Nope. Not remotely true. Besides ethical violations that can result in losing your state bar, lawyers also have a reputation to maintain.

I would never put forth an argument that is illegal, unethical, or so unlikely to succeed that it is a waste of time for all parties. I would never represent an unethical client either.

But, I get it... Lawyers are depicted as scumbags on TV and many actually are in real life (so many examples in the news the past 5 years or so). But to to say "any lawyer" is just hyperbole.

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I stand by the comment.

The point is - lawyers will argue both sides of any issue. For every plaintiff there is a defendant. For every argument that the contract is ironclad, a lawyer can find a legal argument that the contract is ambiguous and unenforceable. A judge and/or jury will decide which argument is more correct. But to say "Well I've read a legal argument that the contract is ironclad, so therefore it must be the case" - well, that's one side of the argument. And the other side just hasn't been put forth in a public forum, yet.

I think the difference is not EVERY lawyer will argue both sides of an issue. You may have to work your way down to the lowest possible rung of lawyerdom before you find someone willing to take your case if you don't have a leg to stand on. And even then, there are lots of cases where any lawyer will just say "Nope, can't win that one. Not gonna do it."

Would you like Prys with that?

You can't trick me Rudy, nice try! Seriously though, something tells me it's harder to get disbarred than you are letting on.

Hey, hopefully I'm wrong and they have teeth sharper than the NCAA's. They seem to work at a similar pace. Truth is, these are just observations from an outsider. It seems like there is a lot of shady, unethical stuff that high profile lawyers do out of the courtroom and it's frustrating that the Bar Association rarely seems to do anything about it.

I feel that. And the last couple of years has been pretty crazy. But, by example, both Cohen and Avenatti were criminally charged and found guilty. And while Rudy probably doesn't get jailtime, I do expect the DC bar to discipline him.

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We're hot and it's time we start acting like it.

I know a lot of people are freaking out after the USC and UCLA moves. But I'll say this:

If you LOVE the ACC and want to see the conference stay intact exactly as it is, you should probably be worried.

However, if you are worried about Virginia Tech ultimately being left out of a major conference, don't be. VT is far too valuable of a brand to be left out. We would be a cultural and geographic fit for either the Big 10 or SEC, and we would make either of those conferences better. Assuming this ends up being a two super conference landscape (and I'm not convinced it will), VT will probably get to choose its conference.

The doll's trying to kill me and the toaster's been laughing at me.

This right here. VT is far too valuable to be left out of realignment. The viewership numbers are there, and the conferences will no doubt do their homework.

I'm personally all for the SEC. The Big Ten is on the surface pretending that this is about academic reputation, what's best for the student athletes, etc. when this is about nothing except money. That is very disingenuous and I feel like in the B1G we would be in yet another smug league with institutions who will continue this lie that somehow athletics conferences have anything to do with academics.

Anybody check the school rankings of the SEC vs the Big Ten? They're honestly pretty comparable in the top half. Northwestern? Vandy. Michigan? Florida. Wisconsin? Illinois? Texas, Georgia. There's a lot of self-boasting going on with the Big Ten that isn't exactly warranted IMO. I also think the SEC would be a far better cultural fit as well. The SEC is big in rivalries and pageantry and I can see them really embracing and promoting the VT brand. I really think the SEC wants to expand their footprint into VA and NC, and plus that would set up geographic pods very neatly. A cross country conference like the Big Ten is trying is going to be a nightmare in travel costs and will probably end up like a merged Pac 12/Big Ten anyhow.

When the SEC courted VT last time, nearly every administrator at SEC schools identified VT as their ideal expansion target. Im willing to bet a lot of those feelings are still present with SEC brass.

Maybe somewhat, but we picked the worst time to be in a slump when it comes to football.

We are culturally ideal for the SEC.

People keep saying this but VT is way closer to being a poor man's Penn State or Michigan than an LSU or Alabama "culturally"

Having spent a ton of time in Alabama, Tennessee, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa recently for work, I would have to disagree. Not sure what you mean by culturally but the population of SWVA is more similar to the deep south than the mid-west, in my opinion.

The population and culture of VT = / = the population and culture of SWVA

I want to say that didn't used to be like that, but I don't think it's relevant regardless.

However, many of the most fanatical SEC fans I've met didn't actually go to the school that they watch and root for every Saturday. In a similar fashion there is definitely a population of people in SWVA that match this description and I'd imagine that population would grow if we had the success of a top SEC school (not that we'd be guaranteed that type of success).

"Hokie religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo

(not that we'd be guaranteed that type of success).

2022 Season Challenge: Wrasslin'
Previous Challenges: Star Wars (2019), Marvel (2020), Batman (2021)

Those are known in Michigan was Walmart Wolverines

I agree with all of this, but I really enjoy the cold weather falls of the B1G. I'd love to visit Madison in October to watch a Rudolph Oline revenge against Wiscy. I think our brand of FB fits in better up there, but I agree it would probably be like the ACC where instead of NC schools looking down on us, its upper midwestern schools. I don't think we'd be a poor stepsister in the SEC.

Having lived in SEC country for nearly 30 years, I can tell you VT already is considered a poor stepsister to the vast majority of SEC programs. VT's reputation here (and I believe nationally) is the school Michael Vick played for. And, not much more. I know we don't like to hear that, but that's been my experience living in SEC country.

Virginian by Birth, Hokie by Choice

That would change overnight in the SEC.

I live in Atlanta (capital of SEC country) and most people here seem to have respect for VT (and moreso Clemson). I get a lot of "Damn, how did Fuente fuck that up" comments, but I feel like our football culture is respected by the SEC Bluebloods, much moreso than South Carolina or Mizzou or other mediocre SEC teams.

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Just a reminder that ATL has an ACC school in the city....not so much with Nashville. ;-) That said, I certainly respect your perspective and that our experiences may be different. I'm just telling you that my experience in Nashville since 1993 (after growing up in C'burg/B'burg) has been very clear that VT isn't considered on-par with the majority of SEC programs. Missouri and South Carolina (and Vandy), I'll give you. But those are at the bottom of the SEC pecking order. When I mention VT football to UT, Bama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss fans, I'm consistently met with a perplexed look like people just don't care to even entertain the fact that VT has a team.

And local sports radio is the same. Just today, they were talking about ACC teams who could be a target for the SEC's expansion, and VT wasn't mentioned once in a 20 min segment. It was all Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC and ND.

By the way, it wasn't always this bad. In the early 2000s, VT would get some mention and respect on local Nashville sports radio. I do think there used to be strong respect for what Beamer built and the VT brand of football. But, it's been a LONG time now since the VT decline began. And, it doesn't help that Dabo and Clemson have been rising nationally at the same time. Sadly, VT football right now is an afterthought. I hope that changes, but we have a long way to go.

Virginian by Birth, Hokie by Choice

Have to say my ten years is different story. As far as Nashville goes, I've seen wayyy more Bama, LSU, and OSU fans than Vols fans. I found it surprising. Additionally, I see a lot more Hokies in the area than I would have expected.
While it's true that these SEC types tend to look down on VT, I get a little good natured ribbing wherever I wear my gear be it TN, AL, or GA and you don't get that sort of acknowledgment unless there's some measure of respect for the program.

I 100% believe Whit has a plan. It might just be feelers or what-ifs right now, but he doesn't seem like a guy that likes being caught with his pants down, and the writing is on the wall for more changes.

We turned down the SEC over a decade ago because Steger and the admin felt we were with our "academic peers" in the ACC and UVA 'fought' to get us in to begin with. The AD wasn't interested in competing in SEC football at the time. VT now thanks to Sands and the major momentum we have can really stand on its own academically now, and I have full faith that Whit will get the job done. We won't make the same mistake twice here.

Something else interesting - peep the last page of the early June BOV minutes. At the bottom of the survey, a recurring discussion theme listed was "Athletics - need to prepare for the time when the current model for intercollegiate athletics breaks so that we will have options" emphasis mine.

No doubt this has been discussed at the highest levels for a while now.


I don't care where we end up as long as we aren't left out. SEC or BigTen, doesn't matter, as long as we get an equal cut of that financial pie.

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I'll be happy if we join the Big Ten. I'll probably do something wild and write a long post here if/when we go SEC. A lot of resentment has been growing up against Tobacco Road and if we could just acknowledge, "Hey, let's get together and make money and play football!" instead of all these made up pretenses about academia, I will be over the moon.

I will always say that the ACC has historically the best fit for us. It's the right conference for us to be in and we were stupid to let that opportunity pass in the 1950s

That being said, John Swofford put the conference in such a position with both his horrible short sighted tv deals in the early 2000s as well as the basketball focused expansion around 2010 that the conference is not viable in 2022. It's to the point where it is no longer in our best interests to be associated with the conference anymore and we need to do what we can to get out.

We probably fit a little better in the SEC than B1G culturally, but it's not like we are a perfect fit for either. Competitively, we have a ways to go before we will be able to hold our own in either (thanks, Fuente) but we wouldn't be a basement dweller, at least not for long. Our recruiting would significantly take off with either SEC or B1G backing, so that would help a lot.

I'm more looking at the potential of taking our tv money from $17m per year to $100m. That would immediately pay off the Cassell renovation. It would free up money to significantly overhaul our football facilities and we could pour money into baseball and softball to continue the momentum we already have. It would be program changing for all the right reasons.

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I think SEC would be way better for recruiting. We hear recruits wanting to go to OSU, Michigan, Penn St but not really the Big Ten. Many recruits go SEC just for the affiliation. I think we could make a massive impact in DMV/VA recruiting if we were SEC.

I think the ACC was a great fit for VT in the mind of the VT old guard. Let's not forget in our pre-BE years UNC refusing to play us in the Peach Bowl because we just weren't up to their standards. (NC State took their place.) Let's also not forgot how UNC and Duke voted against us joining (supposed to be Miami BC and Cuse - wow that gets me fired up!) No love lost for the ACC. I think all things considered we would probably get more exposure and promotion in the SEC. The Big Ten is hellbent on USC, ND, OSU and all these traditional rivalries and we would get overshadowed in a heart beat. It would be ACC 2.0 IMO.

I get what you're saying, but where I was going is that I think that the ACC has always been the best fit for us regionally and geographically. Our travel costs are as low as they could possibly be in this conference. And when we joined, we did so under the pretense that the ACC was making a serious push about being the top football conference in college athletics. At the time, with VT, Miami, and FSU that was absolutely on the table. And who knows, if Miami and FSU don't immediately shit themselves as programs maybe we're having a different conversation right now.

Where the ACC fucked it all up was in trying to appease UNC and Duke by doubling down on basketball with the next round of additions. Pitt, Cuse, and UofL are 2nd tier football programs which did not move the needle one iota in terms of our tv deal. Even moreso than the asinine tv deal with Raycom, bringing in basketball schools in a growingly football centric world showed just how little foresight the powers within the ACC HQ had. That decision signed the conference's death warrant, we've just been riding it out since.

For either the SEC or B1G, I think we'll have a bit of a culture clash. We're not preppy and douchy enough for the SEC and we're not old stodgy 100 years worth of traditions in palaces of football that you get in the B1G. We're somewhere in the middle, but middle enough that we'll eventually fit in wherever we go. You're probably right and our best fit is probably SEC, but I wouldn't be mad if UVa dragged us into the B1G with them.

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Agree the ACC/Swofford totally screwed the pooch with the 2012 expansion. Appeasing Tobacco Road is going to kill the conference in the end. But I totally get what you're saying about geography and again it's why I think the SEC would be a better fit. You add us and NC State for example, you have an extremely neat SEC North pod with us, NCSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vandy. That's four games we can bus to every year. With the Big Ten and trying to grab across the country to the west coast, who knows what kind of travel we would have.

I know it's a bygone era, but I still think we fit better in the SEC due to our SoCon past and regional fit. Playing Minnesota/Iowa/USC would be incredibly strange bedfellows and I see us getting shafted just like we have in the ACC. I totally think the SEC would embrace our membership more so than the B1G. I think the Battle of Bristol would become a huge selling point (SEC Gameday in Bristol on State Street) and UT is a natural rival we could recognize. Give us TAMU and appreciate the Corps of Cadets connection and military history. Give me Saban on the sidelines looking straight into the camera talking about how they will deal with Sandman and the hostile environment at Lane.

Oh 100%. This is why I said I think the SEC is better for us long term.

Just think of the first Enter Sandman for a night game in a conference game within the SEC. Pandemonium. And the SEC Network would be all over it.

Not totally down with the Battle at Bristol becoming a thing. That game was a shitshow the first time around, that venue had no idea how to handle a college crowd (running out of water in the first quarter was no bueno), and the sightlines were god awful. Good for a one off, but I'd much rather just go back and forth between Neyland and Lane.

And yes, the aTm series would be awesome. Plus, we'd be able to warmly welcome Buzz back to Cassell.

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I could see the BoB being a once every third year thing. At Lane, at Neyland, at Bristol. Logistics definitely need ironing out. But the story of Bristol and State Street I think the SEC would hype up big time.

I loved the Battle at Bristol.

Yes, it was really big. But then, again, it was REALLY BIG.

That said, I'd be just as happy paying a premium and seeing that sold out game in Blacksburg or Knoxville.

Not to mention that 150k+ will literally never be touched again. Bristol has quietly taken out about 35-40% of the bleachers (at least). Every other row throughout most of the grandstands have been removed and replaced with drink rails. The night race can still bring in a hefty-ish crowd, but the days of 162,000 people piling in for a race is gone.

Amateur superstar and idiot extraordinaire.

That's unfortunate. I was hoping the Battle at Bristol would become a once a decade type event with 150,000+ attendance. I couldn't see it happening more frequently because it would get stale.

The Battle at Bristol was fit into Bristol Motor Speedway's infield renovation schedule at the time. They had to schedule it out so that the games (local high school and ETSU played there sandwiched between our game I believe) would be played and left enough time for them to complete work before the next race. There will not be any football games played there until they need to do significant infield renovation work again.

It should be the Battle for Bristol. Doesn't have to be played in Bristol, or at the racetrack. Just do a home and home.

Bristol VA vs Bristol TN

Our recruiting would significantly take off with either SEC or B1G backing, so that would help a lot.

I think that it would be a very strong recruiting pitch if we could go into Richmond, the 757, the DMV, etc and tell kids they can play against the best teams in the country, but also stay home. Being the northern-most SEC team would make us very attractive to kids from the mid-atlantic and north east.

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I have a good friend who is a Washington State fan and he said that he expects they'll get left out and he may have to become a Hokie officially.

All of the VT sports programs all seem to be on the up and up and hopefully football now as well (back to their glory days). The academic reputation is also there. That said I like the SEC as far as fit goes.


If it goes as we all expect, and the SEC and Big 10 become the two superconferences, I have no doubt that VT will end up in one of those, and can make a decent case for either one.


Make it happen Whit

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Braxton Burmeister, Ryan Willis, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

Do we think our media rights are on par with a UCLA or USC? Texas or OU? I'm not saying that they are not, just thinking about how these decisions are made that are purely by the numbers.

I know we can be emotional about this, and say that we are on par with the teams mentioned above, but are we going to add as much value to one of these conferences come media rights negotiations, which is really what this is all about.

I don't want to be left behind just like everyone else, but this is the real part of the discussion. Not a great fanbase, not a great game atmosphere, and not how good of a academic or research institution we are. It all comes down to the money, and how much we move the needle when they negotiate the next contract. And I do hope we move the needle enough to be included.

I honestly think with the grant of rights deal, it is very much a possibility that the ACC stays intact in its current format, perhaps sans Notre Dame if they decide to jump to the BIG.

Do we think our media rights are on par with a UCLA or USC? Texas or OU? I'm not saying that they are not, just thinking about how these decisions are made that are purely by the numbers.

I mean, no but few are. Where we come out strong in the pending level of expansion is that we present an untapped market for both the SEC and B1G that should be highly sought after. Just refer to this site: States ranked by population, 2022

Now think of the major schools in those states that are not affiliated with either the SEC or B1G.

1 - California - UCLA, USC
2 - Texas - Texas, aTm
3 - Florida - UF
4 - New York - ______
5 - Pennsylvania - Penn State
6 - Illinois - Illinois, Northwestern
7 - Ohio - Ohio State
8 - Georgia - UGa
9 - North Carolina - _______
10 - Michigan - UM, MSU
11 - New Jersey - Rutgers
12 - Virginia - _______
13 - Washington - ______
14 - Arizona - ________
15 - Tennessee - UT, Vandy

Of the states that do not have a school in either, here are the population, or as a conference would consider it, the population that is not currently untapped for a tv deal

4 - NY - 19.2 million
9 - NC - 10.8 million
12 - VA - 8.6 million
13 - WA - 7.8 million
14 - AZ - 7.6 million

So obviously the big dog state here for someone to grab is New York. But does NY have a state that moves the needle with a tv deal? Syracuse is the biggest athletics school the state has, and it didn't help the ACC at all. They have a decent basketball program, but football has basically been underfunded the entire time. And at a certain point, knowing NY is basically NYC and everything else, is the city already covered by Rutgers? Probably, so that's a state you'll probably skip. Plus, its not like the B1G Network isn't heavily covering that region to begin with, its effectively been annexed.

For the rest, its NC, Virginia, Washington, and Arizona.

Well, we already know UWashington is trying to get into the B1G with Oregon, and its not like the SEC would be sending out an invite to the extreme northwest like that. So that leaves NC, VA, and Arizona. Of the football schools in those states, Virginia Tech is the highest profile and UNC has the biggest brand because of basketball. So if you're looking at which 2 schools are probably the most desireable right now in the next round, you almost have to start there, because that's the untapped potential that really pushed the needle when trying to get more tv money.

That being said, UVa and NCSU are sitting pretty because they'll either join VT and UNC in whatever conference they go to, or be totally safe in the other. Really just depends on if either of the conferences want to lock the other from a state by inviting both, or if they would be content with sharing as long as they got theirs.

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It is a little easier for ND to leave the ACC (they are a member) but not a lot. The ACC owns a significant chunk of ND's media rights; all but ice hockey and 9/10 football games. And they are contractually obligated to join the ACC in football if they join a conference before 2036.

So if ND joins the B1G in say, 2024 (and the ACC still exists in 2024), the ACC will own or need to be compensated for all of ND's media rights except ice hockey, from 2024 to 2036.

Best chance for any ACC schools to move around would be if the top tier of football (and basketball?) leaves the NCAA and schools execute football-only deals elsewhere.

We should have jumped to the SEC when we had the chance. Let's hope we get a second one.

Meh, hindsight is 20/20. Staying in the ACC was the right move at the time. No one thought the SEC would making 4x what the ACC would make. Also, if Swafford didn't butcher the TV network, the situation might be different.

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If you wanted to win, yes the ACC was right, and its nice to be the big fish in the small pond. But the SEC was always going to make way more because the ACC never treated the conference as a football conference. They didn't want VT in 2004 because our basketball sucked (which we came in an finished 5th that first year cause the bottom of ACC basketball sucks)

I have been looking (without success) trying to find an article written years ago about the connection between conference realignment and research dollars.

The author stated that (at that time) no school had switched conferences to a conference rated lower in research dollars. His point was that in trying to predict future conference realignment one should evaluate research funding of the current universities in that conference. Having a vibrant athletic department and a good conference affiliation were important but research dollars were much more important. He made the comment something to the effect of having a good football team is important as it drives enrollment and applications to the university but at end of the day research dollars drive the conference decisions.

Now I don't know if that theory has stayed true with the conference changes over the last few years. But it was an interesting article.

Considering that thesis would point to the B1G as the likely future home for VT, especially if VT would have an opportunity to choose which conference. I say that with the belief (which may be wrong) that ACC research dollars fall between the SEC and the B1G.

If anyone else perhaps remembers that article please link.

To be the man you gotta beat the man!

If the ACC is going to blow up anyway, what does it matter?

Plus, don't we have a joint agreement for a medical learning facility with Vandy that we could easily carry with us?

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The connection between athletic program budget size and research program size isn't coincidental. There are a number of interrelated factors - such as enrollment size, alumni base size and wealth, local and state population, political clout, etc. - connecting the two. One is the chicken and one is the egg to a large degree.

It's why I've always said that the best move VT could make in the vacuum of enhancing its athletic programs would be to increase its enrollment significantly to mirror the B1G and bigger SEC schools. Greater enrollment translates into more alumni and thus more political clout and money.

Which Sands is doing (I have strong emotions about it both ways) but Sands has made it like a goal to be closer to a B1G school.

It's been my biggest gripe about Sands personally, I think VT has already exceeded the carrying capacity of Blacksburg. However, satellite campuses in NOVA seem to be a great way to increase enrollment without straining local infrastructure

Yeah, like I said, I have strong emotions about it both ways. On one hand, the duck pond becoming the center of campus over the drill field makes me vomit in my mouth, but on the other, I get that the school needs to grow to keep up with research dollars. Times are changing I guess.

On one hand, the duck pond becoming the center of campus over the drill field makes me vomit in my mouth

I think you mean Lot 18 becoming the center of campus. The duck pond is just easier for Freshman to find on the map.

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Thanks for somehow making it worse.

Trying to not be an old crud at 31 but man I don't want a day where Im showing my kids a campus I didn't know. My mom stayed in west AJ, my dad stayed at Pritchard, grandpa and great uncle were upper quad. Actually not sure where my aunt was. But those long standing legacies I don't want erode.

Be prepared to be disappointed. I am almost 30 years removed and the amount of change that has happened is mind boggling. Even if the campus doesn't grow, there will be many changes to buildings.

yeah thats all fine, its just not recognizing the campus. Getting blown around the drill field is a rite of passage.

I graduated in 2007 (obviously).

By the time I was returning for games in 2010 I didn't recognize half of campus anymore. By 2016 I needed Google Maps to get across campus sometimes. Going back this year? Forget it

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You are entering the part of life where half of your conversations with people contain references to that place/business/farm that used to be there before they built that new development.

last time I was back for a game was 2007, and I really did not walk around campus as we stayed in Roanoke and drove up for the Thursday night game (Fuck Matt Ryan),

I doubt I would recognize much these days since I graduated in 2000, either on campus on downtown.

As long ago as 2007, I was telling my kids about Prairie quad which by then had had three dorms built within the middle of it. It particularly stuck with me as in the mid 1980s when my roommate's intramural softball team practiced there, home plate was near War Memorial Gym and a few of their hitters would hit the ball far enough to land on the basketball courts immediately next to Lee Hall

(btw that team included Bimbo Coles as shortstop and Bobby Beecher(6 ft 9 Hokie bball player) as second baseman. Bimbo never got less than a double 'cause he would round first at full speed on a routine outfield single
and the outfielder would field it and look up to see Bimbo already nearly at second base. Also had a pitcher that would throw first pitch with six foot arc and if that was a strike -as it usually was- the next pitch would be a twenty foot rainbow that dropped for a strike too. And he could also throw a slow pitch knuckleball! They usually finished top 5 in the 500+team championship tournament.)

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

Late 90's before they built those dorms the Prairie was where it was at once the weather got nice. 2 or 3 beach volleyball courts and usually someone in Lee had a good enough stereo to move to the window so you would have tunes.

Can confirm that from the 80's as well. I lived on the prairie side of Lee freshman year and did put stereo speakers in my window many times.

Also remember the deep freeze my sophomore year-Monday-Jan 21,1985. Temp Sunday morning was 10 degrees and dropped for the next 24 plus hours. Hit zero about 6pm Sunday and bottomed at -18F Monday morning with wind chill of -70F. The lower floors of Lee used up most of the steam heat and our room on fifth floor was 45F in the room with a quarter inch of frost on the INSIDE of the window.

Yes of course I had an 8 o'clock class that day. Walking across the drillfield was bone-chilling even while wearing two pairs of thermal underwear, two sets of sweats, two hats, mittens over gloves and a thick winter coat. Blacksburg Transit(which had just started the previous year or so) had just three main routes(North/South Main, Foxridge-Hethwood, and Tom's Creek Loops A&B ) and usually ran about 27-30 buses including 'tripper' buses during the busy times. Unfortunately, they only had THREE buses parked inside the garage and did NOT have block heaters on the others so those others froze solid. Classes were cancelled as of 10-11AM as the health folks said any students waiting for buses would have any exposed flesh get frostbite in 30 seconds or less!

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

I was there (different dorm)
They reported wind chill down to -64 degrees and ice was thick on the INSIDE of our dorm window.

The coldest i have ever been.

Pretty sure I went to TOTS that Sunday night or maybe on Monday. Their heat was busted. The 4 or 5 of us were the only ones there. One of the guys I was with had a watch with a thermometer. It was 17 degrees INSIDE, IIRC.

We left our coats on, ordered a pizza and warmed our hands by its heat while we watched the NBA game at ate. At least the beer was cold. We left pretty quickly.

Wait, what?

Ha, pretty much. The dorm I lived in for four years is gone (Brodie) and I can barely figure out where I am on campus half the time. Though some of that is just me not remembering shit. And in all fairness the new dorms that replaced Brodie and Rasche are awesome.

I was kinda hoping you graduated in 1907. Boy the stories you could share.

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Oldest man alive is actually a VT alum that uses the TKP.

Turkey legs grant long life, obviously

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Hah! I lived in Major Bill my freshman year, it became an academic building not long after that. I lived in Thomas my sophomore year, and that building is now gone. Schultz is also gone, and stromboli night with it. If West AJ ever gets torn down I guess I'll just have to take my kids on a tour of Foxridge! Or maybe McBryde, where I spent many, many hours in classes and the CS lab.

Change seems to be the only thing you can count on when it comes to the VT campus. :-)

"Those who jump into the void owe no explanation to those who stand and watch."

Having had classes and meetings in Major Bill, I always thought it had the feel of an old dorm, good to know.

If by "old dorm feel" you mean two guys crammed into a walk-in closet, you'd be right.

I had the distinction of living in the smallest room on campus, Major Bill 311, and the second largest room on campus, O'Shag 110 (I think it was 110) back in the 80's. I was lucky and had no 2 in the upper class on campus lottery going into my sophomore year.

I think I was the last class in Thomas hall.. Schultz breakfast buffet was unmatched!

Updog for life!

RIP Thomas. I was there '03-'04. They let slip that they planned to renovate the next summer and my hall mates trashed the hell out of that place.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I transferred to VT and was in Thomas fall semester of '03, but it was so far from all of my classes and my GF at the time was in Slusher Wing, so I ended up moving to Pritchard for the spring. As someone who was a good 2 years older than the rest of the residents there, that spring semester was enough to convince me to move off campus for the rest of my time.

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

You're gf was in Slusher Wing in '03? Was she in Hypatia by chance? I lived on the same floor as them and still remember a bunch of them.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

No she was on the 2nd floor in gen pop lol

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

Ah. Didn't talk much with anybody on the second floor.

They didn't ever take part in the floor vs floor CounterStrike games.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

As a subnote to 'the good ol' days, I remember that my freshman year in 83/84 was when they first installed fire alarms and the number of false alarms was ridiculously large-I think 50 in the first quarter alone! We got to the point where we ignored them completely and pretended to not hear(or to not be there)when the RAs pounded on the door to get folks to leave. I actually completely legit slept through an alarm once-s soundly asleep that I never woke up.

Also remember it went off on 'move-in day' that fall and the fire engine had to navigate down Washington St between he double parked and diagonally parked cars unloading. Mad props to the driver who had maybe 12" max clearance on each side of his truck.

PS I like reminiscing about my actual days on campus even though I'm older than 90% of the people who post often here.

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

Ha ha, thanks for the memory. False fire alarms galore. Cold as %#&@ and it seemed to take forever to get to go back in.

The one good thing about Thomas for me was location. Schultz was a hidden gem. I don't know how many meals I had at sub station or sycamore deli because they were a shorter walk than Owens (squires food court was being renovated). And walking time to classes in McBryde/Randolph/Hancock couldn't be beat.

That said, most of my friends lived in EAJ/Pritchard so it made for some wicked long walks.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I was in the environmental science program at the time, and all my classes were in the ag quad on the opposite corner of the drillfield. So for me, the only advantage Thomas had was its proximity to Sub Station/Sycamore Deli

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

So many legs for Sycamore Deli and Sub Station

Stromboli night definitely worth an upvote. We used to travel over from Miles Hall for that.

Man we have a campus in NoVa. The center of campus is like Luray Caverns or something

Yes, he has - to some degree. But at present, VT would still only be 11th in total enrollment in the B1G.

I'm not saying significantly increased enrollment isn't without its challenges and downsides (both subjective and objective). It's why I specifically said "in the vacuum of enhancing its athletic program". But if athletic success (or perhaps even survival) is important to you, one needs to get past the unpleasant changes it would entail.

Expanding in NoVa is nice, but IMO it's TBD whether it benefits VT athletics.

The salient point would be

if VT would have an opportunity to choose which conference

And for the record my preference has always been the SEC over the B1G.

To be the man you gotta beat the man!

For whatever reason I feel like the grant of rights thing is going to end up screwing us in this next phase of realignment. Everyone seems to think it's going to get tossed out and there is about to be this big raid of ACC schools by the BIG 10 and SEC, but I am not sure I see that happening. None of the ACC teams have control over the media rights, so those two conferences can't really negotiate with any schools about joining since there would likely be a huge court battle with no guarantee that the schools media rights will be released, which is the entire point of expansion, to cash in on the media rights.

For whatever reason I feel like this grant of rights thing will end up doing exactly as it intended, keep other conferences from raiding the ACC. Maybe I'm wrong here, and the ACC does end up collapsing and we end up in the BIG or SEC, but I feel that is less likely than the ACC remaining intact. In that case it becomes the power 2 and we are then part of the group of 8 or however that shakes out.

This would make me very sad.

Lets be honest for one second. Grant of Rights is only as enforceable as the schools within the conference want it to be enforceable. This is why I think the kill shot to the ACC will be a bloc of 4 big state schools bailing at once, and then each locking the ACC up in the courts within their own states to prevent payment. Delay for even as much as 12 months and those payments will never be made.

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I agree that the best way to 'get out' of the GoR is if multiple schools leave together. There have been multipled verified people on twitter reporting that both Miami and GT are trying to get out of the GoR.

each locking the ACC up in the courts within their own states to prevent payment. Delay for even as much as 12 months and those payments will never be made

The interesting thing about the GoR is that it's not tied to a specific state, so it's not clear where a potential lawsuit would take place. Apparently, this is a huge legal hurtle to overcome (per Andy Staples of The Athletic, and the lawyer he interviewed).

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Not only that but it sounds like there is a lot of chatter for GT to join the Big Ten.

Them going to the Big Ten would be interesting. Would probably kick off B1G talks with UVa, which would probably grease the wheels to get us into the SEC.

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I think best case scenario for us is some combination of GT/UNC/FSU/Clemson/UVA to big 10 and VT/NC St to the SEC. I don't know how SEC schools would feel about having a second in state SEC school. It's tough to see GT/FSU/Clemson getting an offer IMO. I don't know how Miami fits in here since they are private.

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What I think actually happens:

to B1G - UNC, UVa, GT, ND
to SEC - Clemson, FSU, VT, NCSU, Miami
to Big East - WF, Duke, BC, Cuse
to Big XII - Pitt, UofL

I could see Syracuse maybe try to go to the Big XII with Pitt, but I think there's a decent chance they just go Independent in football and join Duke in the Big East for basketball. I think UVa and UNC go together to preserve "the oldest rivalry in the south", and the SEC gladly takes VT and NCSU to get those markets. FSU demands that Miami is brought as well, but the SEC has to be convinced to make it happen.

From everyone else, I'm not sure the SEC has any desire to go further west than Texas. For the Big Ten, I think Oregon and Washington are on the table, maybe Arizona as well. Everyone else has already been picked over, so this might end it.

We end up with

Big Ten (21 teams)
Georgia Tech
Michigan State
North Carolina
Ohio State
Penn State
Southern Cal

SEC (21 teams)
Florida State
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Texas A&M
Virginia Tech

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Feels too neat and tidy to actually happen haha

TBH, I can't see Florida being okay with the SEC absorbing 2 other schools in their state. SCar definitely will try to fight adding Clemson, but I'm not sure how much sway they will have. I also can't see public universities in both North Carolina and Virginia seperating.

All that said, this situation is so unprecidented; past norms may be out the window.

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TBH if UVA and VT both had separate dating partners with agreements in place, I could see VA being ok with it. But ya, if UVA was left out to dry or VT I doubt it would fly. NC I could see the same but that is so much dirtier because of the UNC-Duke relationship.

(replying to you both with this)

I kind of agree that splitting up VT/UVA and UNC/NCSU/Duke is definitely not what either state wants to see happen, but at the same time as long as scheduling arrangements can be made to ensure they keep playing once a year during rivalry week, that kind of a split could work as long as each school is taken care of. When push comes to shove, I can see Duke being left out in lieu of them ending up in the premier basketball conference (Big East), and letting that be that.

If the Big Ten is willing to relax a bit on their AAU requirements (which aren't documented as being necessary so much as its just something that's always been there when teams have been invited), I could see them going big baller and taking ND, UNC, GT. UVa, NCSU, VT, Oregon, and Washington. Locks the SEC out of the mid-Atlantic and gets them to 24 where you could run 4 divisions of 6 teams.

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TBH if UVA and VT both had separate dating partners with agreements in place, I could see VA being ok with it.

I agree with this in theory, but I'm not sure how doable/practical that is. You have two schools negotiating with two different conferences. Not only do the schools need to get accepted, but, in order for their mutual stakeholders (state politicians) to be okay with either school moving, the second school has to also have a landing spot.

Basically, I'm saying that there is a timing issue here - suppose that VT is granted access to the SEC, but UVA is still 'under consideration' from the B10 with no obvious timeline for approval - will VA politicians support the move, or will little brother be a ball and chain (potentially causing us to miss a narrow window)?

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Totally agree, this depends on a lot of arrangements colliding. I just think its more likely in VA than NC.

Conversely, if UVa to the B1G and VT to the SEC is in negotiations, you have a much better chance of getting out of the Grant of Rights with UVa and VT suing the ACC in the state if Virginia, especially since you'd have a high chance of the judge being a UVa grad.

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Can confirm. Mom's Cousin is UVA grad (gross and only one) and a high ranking judge in Va Beach.

I am not against this alignment.

Questions: How do you see 21 teams working in each conference? I am assuming three divisions of 7 each? How would that work with regard to arriving at a conference champion?

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Hey Alum. Why do you think FSU would want (much less demand) that Miami is included? I am probably googling wrong or just being lazy.

To be the man you gotta beat the man!

I get the whole "not wanting multiple schools from the same state thing". But I think we're at the point where the old rules don't really apply. It may no longer be about just about cable homes - it may be just as important to keep the competition from accessing those homes.

The SEC has clearly shown it's willingness to take Texas & aTm - and I would think the opportunity to lock up Florida might trump allowing one partner a monopoly.

I'm not suggesting that Clemson, for example, wouldn't bring value to the SEC - they absolutely would.

Rather, I believe that schools like UGA/UF/SCar would want to maintain their monopoly of being the only SEC school in their state, and may try to block attempts to add in state rivals.

Texas and TAMU weren't founding members; I will speculate that they don't have as much sway or political clout as UF and UGA do.

Anyways, it's all speculation at this point, but that is my guess.

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Also Texas is a different beast than all other schools mentioned. The only other school that is like them would be Notre Dame.

Texas is so rich money has its own money.

Don't forget that UK is part of that UGa/UF/SCar voting block (to keep out Louisville) so a four team block can prevent a lot from happening, especially since bringing more members will dilute their influence over conference decisions. Their voting power is already decreasing with OU and Texas coming in. It would have to be way more lucrative than what they are about to get.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Yeah now that you mention this I would guess that the current SEC members would be more open to adding VT/UVA versus the other schools that are state rivals. I think we would be in a good position there, with not many schools looking to block us from entering (like UNC tried to block us entering ACC because they felt we were not a strong academic school, lol)

Wow GT going from SEC to ACC to Big Ten would be a story for the ages.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

And sure enough, I just saw this

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Ok, so now we wait. Just hoping when the time comes, we are part of an announcement by either of the new Power 2.

We're a football school with 30 strong years of history. Even though we've slipped in recent years, our attendance is still pretty strong and, more importantly, we still bring big ratings to ESPN when we're on. We're in the 3rd most populous state (i.e. broadcast region) that currently does not have a school in the SEC or B1G.

Having had time to think about it, we are absolutely a school that either conference is targeting. UNC and ND are probably tops on the list, but if you're looking long term and not just 'who are the good football teams right now' there's a good chance we might be next on the list, to be honest. If the option is there for either the SEC or B1G to bring the NC or Va markets into the fold, they're dumb not to do it, even if it means VT/NCSU going SEC and UNC/UVa going B1G.

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Move 1: lawyer up
Move 2: make the official move date not too far out but far enough where the breakup is awkward
Move 3: wait for more schools to leave/the league to finally collapse or capitulate

Don't forget to hit the gym, delete facebook, etc.

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The underpants gnomes have already figured it out for us.

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

Didn't Maryland effectively get out of the GoR document when they bailed already?

Maryland was supposed to pay something like $40m to the conference to leave and I think they ended up paying far less than half.

Schools are doing the math now regarding GoR, and from what I understand we're already past the point where you would make money in a new conference even with paying GoR. I think that threshold is $46m per year, and I think both are already over it. Schools are trying to figure out how to reduce the payment before making the move, and possibly trying to align moves to further weaken the ACC's position when it all goes down in the courts.

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Maryland also sued the ACC in the state of Maryland. Every school that tries to get out of the GofR is going to sue in their home state for a favorable outcome.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

FWIW, the current GoR was created after UMD left the conference, then amended in 2016 to allow for the ACCN. All that to say that any potential lawsuit filed a current ACC member could be different than the one filed by/against UMD.

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IIRC, the GoR was implemented in response to UMD leaving.

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I have similar concerns. I think the only way to get out of the GoR is if multiple schools leave at once. I think (speculating here) it would need to be at least 4 schools leaving at once.

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I'm in your camp.

The only thing I see that threatens the GOR for football would be top tier football leaving the NCAA, or a significant restructure w/in the NCAA.

That wouldn't automatically break a conference GOR or TV deal, but a lot of it might get revisited depending on the extent of the impact on conference members.


No no none of that

Yeah, as long as one of these ends up on Worsham Field when this is all said and done (2023 or 2024 season?) then I really don't care what happens from here on out.

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those both look good to me. I don't really have a strong opinion on either. I think SEC would be more likely and the travel costs probably more manageable, depending on our annual opponent lineup. I don't really care where we end up as long as its not in the still-sinking ACC

Onward and upward

(at least) $100m per year from the Big Ten tv deal would be more than enough to not have to worry about travel costs.

At the same time, we'd probably be looking at a similar amount in the SEC as well.

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I think for fan travel reasons SEC would be better. I think there are more likely more VT alumni in the South East than in the Mid West and North East (I have zero data to support that, just my guess).

For me being in Dallas if we could play in Norman or Austin those are both within driving distance for me, so I am all for that.

SEC would be absolutely AWESOME for me. I would have no issue attending games in Columbia, Athens, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Knoxville, etc. I could make occasional trips to Baton Rouge, maybe hit the Grove up, or head to Gainesville too. All of those are drivable options.

Same. ATL is well located for SEC roadtrips. Other than GT, bowl games are the only place I get to watch the Hokies.

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yes, this is what I meant. Either league and travel costs aren't really an issues for the team. But I'm thinking about me going to games as a fan. I'm much closer to most of the SEC schools than I am to any of the B1G schools. Travel costs for the fans might be an important consideration. Especially if a league is looking to add a team that has fans who travel well.

Onward and upward

And in case anyone was wondering just how they could look on Worsham.....

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That SEC Logo looks good

VT '17

I've never understood why we're the only school in the country that can't paint our end zones

"That's it guys. Let's get out of here. That cold drink's waitin' on us, let's go." - Mike Young after win no. 300.

How have I never even noticed that. I just had to go through my phone looking at pics.

At least we have something on the field other than lines and numbers. My freshman year, Weaver had our field looking like this:

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That, and it feels like we're the only school that doesn't have some sort of border around the field. It really makes the field pop, especially if done in our colors like Alum's mockups above.

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

Here is something that I've not seen other folks mention (including the "we talked to a lawyer" article on the Athletic) re: the Grant of Rights:

A school (for our sake, let's hope its VT) could leave and simply not pay. Then, when what's left of the ACC seeks to collect, you argue that the GOR clause is an unenforceable penalty rather than a liquidated damages clause designed to be a "best guess" of damages that are difficult to foresee/calculate in advance.

Basically, the argument is that this GOR clause was not done to protect the ACC or allow the conference to recover damages actually incurred from a school's departure, but instead to penalize the departing school so as to prohibit breach of contract. Virginia courts have recognized the concept, so I hope it is something we're seriously considering.

"That's it guys. Let's get out of here. That cold drink's waitin' on us, let's go." - Mike Young after win no. 300.

The current GOR was agreed to in 2013 after the inclusion of ND to the ACC in most sports other than football (which are included in the GOR) and included ND scheduling five games with ACC schools each year.

If Notre Dame does not remain a member of the ACC through 2036, why isn't the GOR void for the remaining schools? That would be substantially different than the one agreed to in 2013.

Here's the icing on the cake about Grant of Rights....

Good job, Swofford.

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They would also owe for what the ACC would have made if they had joined the ACC.

The ACC owns 2 or 3 ND games per year. ND can do what they want with the rest, including sell them to the BTN instead of NBC. But they can't join another conference or compete for its championship. That opportunity is owned by the ACC through 2036.

The ACC owns 2 or 3 ND games per year.

No, they don't. The ACC only owns the home games of their football members. It just happens that 2 or 3 of those games feature Notre Dame as the visiting team each year.

That would be like saying the ACC "owns" 2 WVU games in 2022 because they play at Pitt and at VT.

What was Swofford supposed to do with Notre Dame? Tell them to join in football, too, or kick rocks? They would have just done that, and joined another conference for their other sports. It gave the ACC an outside shot if things broke differently.

A school (for our sake, let's hope its VT) could leave and simply not pay.

TV money goes to the conference which then distributes it. VT would never see a penny

Right. But if we joined the SEC, for example, do you think they would cut our check for SEC tv revenue and send it to us, or tobacco road?

"That's it guys. Let's get out of here. That cold drink's waitin' on us, let's go." - Mike Young after win no. 300.

One thing that maybe scares me the most - everyone just keeps assuming that the B1G and SEC are going to keep expanding and shaking things up, but what if they don't? What if none of these intermediate brands add any value to them and it was just the Texas and LA schools that made sense and added a ton of value? We're all hoping VT will "have a place at the table" eventually but the table might already be set. If the ACC doesn't get shaken up, we're just locked into a subpar deal in a subpar conference for the better part of the next two decades.

ND is obviously out there but they've turned down big paydays before. Oregon seems like the next big fish but it sounds like the B1G has already basically told them thanks but no thanks. If the Big 12 and Pac-12 remnants merge to create a third "superconference," which seems like the likely next step here if the B1G and SEC are done, the ACC probably becomes a distant and clear 4th place to them and viewed as closer to the current G5 than it is to the other 3.

My guess in this situation is that in an expanded playoff, the ACC will get less access than B10/SEC teams, but still some access. I don't think the B12 + P12 super league puts the ACC out of the picture. I think it will be a more fun confence to watch, but I'm not sure they significantly more money PER SCHOOL than the ACC would.

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What if the goal of this mega expansion is to grow large enough to tell the NCAA to pound sand? And what point is large enough?

Maybe they're looking at playoff money. By trending towards two superconferences, the playoffs could expand to 8 or 16, and each conference would be guaranteed 50% of the field for the entire tournament.

What if the SEC decided to not participate in the NCAA football after adding Texas and Oklahoma?

The SEC could host conference games for the regular season and then host their own tournament of the top half of the conference.

That would create 19 weekends of inventory for CBS ( 16 week season (1 bye week), Elite 8 round, Final 4 round, Championship).

CBS would pay for those rights and the SEC would not be subject to rules enacted by the other 114 schools.
I think the BIG was worried about the SEC making the NCAA obsolete.

If the SEC left they would probably have a hard time. The vast majority of people would care about the 100+ teams still in the FBS, not the 16 that broke away.

I honestly wouldn't give two shits if they did it. I hate the SEC anyway and this would open up more interesting matchups in the playoff/bowls that I actually want to see

That would create 19 weekends of inventory for CBS

CBS is out after next year. Look for any new members to be starting that year for the SEC. The mouse will make it work and if they hold the contract for an expansion school's conference TV rights, I bet their lawyers know how to argue against it or just pay the fine as they pretty much did with Texas and OU to the SEC.

The question I keep coming back to is, will the B10/SEC ever get cutthroat with any of their current members? Vandy, Missouri, Rutgers or Northwestern could all somewhat feasibly be cut for bigger and better schools, if you're telling me they are going to be willing to cut ties with current members my feelings on VT get a lot better, I am of the opinion that you have to get into one of these big 2, my preference is the SEC. I think the brand is better, we are closer to those schools and culturally fit in. Personally, living in southeast georgia, it puts me closer to a lot more potential road games and I wouldn't have to live through the potential taunts from my in-laws when Ohio State beats VT every year if we were in the B10.

VT '17

I think it would be nearly impossible to kick a school out, especially Vandy as a founding SEC member. If they all meet and propose to kick them out then someone else gets bumped down to that line of relegation and I just don't think any school is willing to go down that road

Only way someone is getting 'kicked out' is if there is a promotion/relegation situation (HIGHLY unlikely, but also the best possible outcome IMO), and Vandy/SCar/etc gets relegated.

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Duke writer in Raleigh thinks VT is one of the least coveted schools in all of expansion

Keep in mind, Duke and UNC have always thought adding VT to the ACC was a mistake. I'm not surprised to see this clown spouting this kind of crap.

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Anything that comes out of the mouths of anyone from the state of North Carolina is moot. We are academically and athletically viable to a conference. We may not have Duke Med or UNC Law but we're just fine in our own regards

Does this guy know that NC State has (literally) only had one 10+ win season in program history? Probably not.

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That guy clearly has an ax to grind.

Probably mad that VT beat Duke and won the ACC tournament this year, and he definitely undervalues football in terms of athletic program value.

We can argue about the metrics but the article for picked up on Yahoo. I don't think we're 3rd tier but I also don't think we're in with UNC and FSU like many here seem to think. We very well could get screwed.

I mean of course Yahoo is going to pick up a story published by the News and Observer, which is basically the primary newspaper of the ACC.

And... Yahoo itself is basically regurgitated garbage nowadays. Most of their content is just reposted from other areas, with little to no additional insight provided.

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I'd like to be able to say that newspapers are objective in their reporting.

But they're not. They reflect the strong biases of their authors. Sometimes inadvertently, though often the motive is obvious.

So an article by a local sportswriter in the Raleigh News and Observer may not be quite as objective as one might like.

So an article by a local sportswriter in the Raleigh News and Observer may not be quite as objective as one might like.


If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

That said, people still believe what they read. Because someone wrote it.

Comical considering our football team at 7-5 brings in more revenue than their whole school combined. But hey at least they pay high schoolers to play basketball for them 🥱

Go for it

Brand values according to the Wall Street Journal. If this is correct, we are sitting pretty.

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Wow, 3rd in ACC, this is eye opening!

but considerably less than the avg payout of b10 and sec. it costs them money to add anyone from the acc.


"My advice to you... is to start drinking heavily."-John Blutarsky

This is an important thing to note. I think it is entirely possible that the B1G and SEC are potentially done for now, and stick at 16 teams. It almost feels like a staring contest. I don't think that the SEC is moving to add more teams unless B1G goes out there and gets more teams.

It is entirely possible that this Big 12 deal goes through and they pick off the 6 teams from the Pac 12 and then the ACC remains unchanged.

Yeah not sure this is as good for us as it looks at first glance. Even if you take out the outliers (Alabama, Texas, OSU, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Rutgers, Purdue) to get more of a true average, we still come in way under either number.

This just tells me they're really probably not interested in expanding past ND, Oregon, and Washington.

I'm looking at this in a slightly different way. Basically, VT in the ACC has a brand valued at that much. Put VT in the SEC or Big Ten and that brand value should become much higher.

Otherwise, you're arguing that the FSU brand in the SEC would be equivalent to Kentucky and.... no

Hell, by that logic, Clemson, winner of 2 of the last 6 National Championships and a finalist in 2 others, would have the 5th lowest value in the SEC and that's just not correct.

If anything, this shows how much the ACC is legitimately holding Clemson, FSU and VT back

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i do think the value goes up if in a better conference, but i am not sure how much.

feels like fsu and clemson are super undervalued here.


"My advice to you... is to start drinking heavily."-John Blutarsky

How much is reasonable to expect it to go up though? 20%? 30%? We come in a full 35% under the B1G average right now and would need to more than DOUBLE our current value to meet the SEC average. Maybe it's possible but those sound like unreasonable numbers to me to just chalk up to "additional brand exposure"

Going from a basketball conference to a football conference, I would not be at all surprised to see our value at least double within 10 years. It won't be overnight, none of these moves will be, but everything about the SEC would significantly raise our profile.

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I'm looking at this in a slightly different way through my orange and maroon glasses. Basically, VT in the ACC has a brand valued at that much. Put VT in the SEC or Big Ten and that brand value should become much higher.


The thing is, this holds true for most schools on that list.

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Well no shit. Good thing we're the #6 valued team on the list not in the SEC or Big Ten then, right?

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I honestly don't know - IMO, it all depends on where the threshold between increasing/decreasing other member schools' bottom line is.

I agree that we are well positioned reletive to our competition. None of that matters if we don't bring additional value to a new conference.

Edit: here's an interesting piece written when Texas and OU announced their move to the SEC. TL;DR - UT and OU will need to generate a total of $134 million more (combined) in annual revenue for the SEC to increase the revenue per school.

Not sure VT + some other could add that - not saying they can't, just that I don't know.

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UCLA and USC are both below the B1G average, so this isn't the only consideration. Our number comes in at ~8% lower than UCLA, which would indicate we're comparable as far as the chart goes.

This is interesting. Especially if VT FB is "back" under Pry. We could be a seductive suitor if the alignment stays for a couple years.

Agreed. We have pretty impressive viewership and metrics even after a pretty down past decade. If this is the floor and a 30 year low, imagine what a couple of years under Pry can do for us.

So you're saying this would be a good time to win the whole f**kin thing? It's a bold plan. I like it.

A little premature for us to "back", don't you think?

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Which is why I said "if" and used back in quotations.

Average payout?

If you look at these values, UCLA and USC are also less than the B1G avg value and only marginally more than VT.

Regardless, expansion is about potential more than current value. I don't think VT has the $$ potential of UCLA or USC (although with two NFL teams now, that LA potential is attenuated), but VT's long-term potential as a 50k student behemoth with heavy connection to the DC market - and takes football seriously - shouldn't be underestimated.

I would not have guessed GT to be so high and duke to be so low.

If you feel the leather in your hand let it rip.

GT is in a massive market and has had a history of being decent. They were probably the 2nd best team in the ACC when we joined. With out doing the math, they had the most wins of any ACC team when we joined. Clemson has past them and us in the last decade.

Duke sucks and has a small stadium for all of its sports.

GT may be in a massive market, but very few care about GT in that market. It's Dawgs, Braves, Heat, Falcons, [insert name of team where ATL transplant is from], Alabama, whoever is playing the Winnipeg Jets, Auburn, whoever is playing the Calgary Flames, Tennessee, whatever Georgia State's mascot is, nearest high school team, then GT.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

As someone who actually lives in Atlanta, I think you underestimate how wide spread the GT brand is here. Yea, it's behind UGA, The Braves (the only pro baseball team between DC and Tampa?), and The Falcons (The NFL), so they're the fourth biggest draw in the metro area. Yes, ATL is an SEC city, but no single SEC school (excluding UGA) has more fans here than GT. They have a lot of wealthy alumni who are executives at Delta, Home Depot, Waffle House, Salesforce, and in the VC/Tech space. As a rule, the school will ALWAYS prioritize academics and research over athletics, so they're ceiling in modern era is 8-10 wins.

GT (obviously) isn't a crown jewel of realignment like ND or UNC, but they might be a nice way for either confreence to round out their footprint. The notion that Atlanta doesn't care about GT sports is bullshit.

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TBF, it's been a long time since I lived in the ATL. GT is definitely higher than I made out (see my signature), but if it's fourth in the market, it's a diiiiistant fourth. I'll admit I was exaggerating their placement for humor, but I don't think their slice of the ATL Sportsverse Cake (see what I did there?) is as big as you think.

I did read recently an idea where GT might be invited to the SEC to keep the B1G out of the ATL market, but I think that's the only reason an invite would come out of Birmingham. They don't have anything that the SEC would want or doesn't already have.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I don't think it's a distant fourth, and in Atlanta proper, I think they're bigger than the Braves. I go and tailgate for a couple GT games every season, and it's a good scene. I regularly get in arguments with bartenders who refuse to switch away from GT games.

Like I said, I don't think GT is a must have for either conference, but it could be a nice cherry on top.

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That's great and all, but GT averaged just a tick under 38k fans per game for home games in 2021 (including the Georgia game). That's about 4,500 fans LESS than the ACC mean in 2021.

Sounds like Syracuse & NYC.

"Those who jump into the void owe no explanation to those who stand and watch."

So the most valuable brands out there for the Big Ten and SEC to take on as of now, according to the WSJ, are....

1 - Washington
2 - Oregon
3 - Arizona State
4 - Clemson
5 - Florida State
6 - Virginia Tech
7 - Kansas State
8 - Oklahoma State
9 - Texas Tech
10 - Stanford

When people say football is king, this is what they mean. Football brand dwarfs that of a basketball school.

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I guess it just all boils down to how much they project to get in money per school on the next TV deal. If they think they can get more TV money per school by continuing to add schools then we will see the expansion you have been talking about. If they run the numbers and think they are maxed out on what they get, then they stand pat. I guess we will see. I'm not 100% sold that additional expansion is a done deal, and that the ACC gets raided then ultimately dissolves.

Until we get more announcements this is all really just speculation by us and the media on what could happen. We will see how it all shakes out, I just hope if the chaos continues as a lot of people seem to be sure of that VT lands in one of the big two.

When it comes to VT, when you really dig into it, the pros start significantly outweighing the cons.

Our football team might be struggling right now, but we still draw at the gate. We still pack in opposing stadiums on away trips. We also drive viewership ratings when we're on tv. There's a reason that the ACCN tries to grab as many of our games as they can, even if the quality of the team might not have deserved it.

On top of that, we're the 6th most valuable brand that could be taken. We are also in the 3rd most populous state that doesn't currently have a school in either the Big Ten or SEC (2nd, if you consider Rutgers to cover NYC). That's a lot of uncovered homes a conference would add to its tv deal, which should allow for a contract negotiation for a higher amount.

And then you consider that we've become a major research institute over the past 20 years. We've proven that we took the opportunity from admission into the ACC to better the school from top to bottom to the point where we now have a major NOVA campus partnered with technology supergiant Amazon that you know would be attractive to either the SEC or Big Ten.

And over the last 5 years we've doubled or tripled our athletic fundraising base with a legitimately ambitious Drive for 25 goal achieved before its deadline. During a time when the football team was trending to its lowest point in 30 years.

Both of our basketball teams are on the rise. We hosted Super Regionals in softball and baseball. We have a wrestling program consistently ranked in the top 10 in the country. Our soccer teams are nationally competitive and we've always had a decent track and field program. And this is with ACC levels of funding. Oh, right, and we're the reigning ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Champions.

Our cons are what. We are in a current period of down play with the football program and we're breaking in a new head coach? Our recruiting has always paled in comparison to the SEC and our revenue streams aren't what they could be? If anything, that makes the accomplishments I've listed even stronger that we're doing all this when our cash cow is sputtering. Put us in one of the big revenue leagues and we'll take off. just like we showed we could in the ACC. And even if we take a while getting there, the conference still gets access to some pretty good research and development partnerships that they wouldn't otherwise have.

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One con with the SEC is that they couldn't give two shits about sports other than baseball, football or basketball. Wrestling isn't sponsored. Mens soccer isn't sponsored. Womens lacrosse isn't sponsored. We would have to find homes for these teams which would likely need to be in a mid major conference. B1G wouldn't have us if we joined the SEC. ACC wouldn't let us keep sports there obviously. That leaves the Big12 which would be weird.

That leaves the Big12 which would be weird.

You have to admit though, having Wrestling in the Big12 would be amazing competition.

2022 Season Challenge: Wrasslin'
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According to Wikipedia:
- Mizzou and Oklahoma's wrestling teams compete in the BigXII
- Kentucky and South Carolina's men's soccer teams play in the SunBelt
- Florida and Vandy's women's lax teams compete in the AAC

Depending on the SEC's expansion targets, there may be enough teams for them to begin sponsoring these sports.

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

I was today years old when I learned the SEC doesn't have men's soccer? WTF?

Probably just a coincidence SEC schools don't give a rat's ass about soccer and have won 12 of the last 16 football championships?

Oklahoma is not sure where they will wrestle as of now according to the SEC conference Wikipedia. I doubt the Big12 will allow them to keep any sports there for a while after the split.

Mizzou was just accepted back to the Big12 to wrestle last year I think. So they weren't able to keep wrestling when they moved over.

Bingo, this is where more $$ comes into play. Once the sports start getting expanded to now you don't have an open Tuesday night on the SEC network it's now a lacrosse game. That's all extra revenue in the TV deals (albeit not as large as the major sports)

Go for it

No it's not. Lacrosse loses the school money. Playing a Lacrosse Game on Tuesday night does not make money for the SEC. That's not how subscription fees work; The SEC makes money for each HOUSEHOLD they are in. Viewership isn't a factor in the SEC's paycheck.

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Our con's are what the whiners in our fan base constantly harp on... Terrible "facilities", "behind" on NIL, no private jets, when we do build a 50 million dollar facility its already outdated, etc. Those are the cons

Arizona State will definitely be an interesting piece in all of this. Arizona is a rapidly growing state and ASU is a huge school as well, perhaps the biggest, in terms of undergrad enrollment up there with Ohio State. They have a lot of value to bring to the table for one of these conferences.

Yeah and Arizona is the 4th most populous state not currently with a school in the P2.

There's definitely room for them somewhere, but I'm just not sure where. They'd be kind of on an island on their own in the SEC. Maybe the Big Ten goes with a full Western Division and invites Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and ASU to pair with USC and UCLA?

One thing that stuck out to me the most here is just how screwed WVU is. Overall 3rd lowest value, behind all of Duke, Wake and BC? Oof, they're in a world of trouble.

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I wasn't a student for the WVU days, so I don't have the same hate as many people here have for them, but that sucks for them. The school cares about football, and they have passionate fans (who were nice to me when I met them in 2017). They've just gotten repeatedly fucked in realigment.

WVU, Wazzu, Texas Tech... they're all a great part of college football (surely more important to the sport than Northwestern, Vandy, Duke, or Wake). It just sucks that their path to regional relevence is slowing being eliminated.

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They were a valuable and respected hoops brand until they started cheating in every way, openly

Were you really surprised by how little WVU brings to the table - both now and, more importantly, moving forward?

Based on what Godfrey has said on SZD about how Arizona and ASU are in the same university system, I feel like it's even less likely that they would be in different conferences. If the Pac-whatever disolves, it feels like the Arizona schools would be the best fit in the B12.

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It's definitely the most natural fit on several levels. I do think you'll see the SEC do their due diligence on them as an avenue to westward expansion.

Yeah, but who else would the SEC get that even moves the needle out West? And would those schools even be interested in the SEC, or would they hold out to be included with the inevitable Big Ten West?

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I just want to make sure we all take a moment to laugh at WOOVOO. 3rd last, and only ahead of 'not really BigXII schools' Cincy and Houston. Lower then every school in the ACC and 20 mil behind Boston College and VANDERBILT.

Old sigline: I've been cutting back on the drinking.

New Sigline: lol it's football season.

Kind of just goes to show at how much they fucked themselves by letting their fan behavior get so far out of control that no conference wanted to touch them when it came time for the second round in that 2010-2012 range. Like, that is the big reason they got blacklisted, nobody wanted to deal with them. Nobody wanted to send their fans to that stadium, and it long term killed them.

They will be on par with Marshall when this is all said and done. Its sad, but they have nobody to blame but themselves.

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Let's be honest, their academics are also part of the reason nobody wants to touch them.

Louisville has worse academics than WVU

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Still blows my mind how they joined the ACC and not WVU. As much as I hate WVU if you're going to bend the rules at least add one of the biggest rivals for 2 of the schools.

And that right there is how WVU's fan behavior trashed their long term hopes of remaining viable. They burned every bridge they had with UMd, and UVa, salted the earth with VT, and even managed to piss off the likes of UNC and Clemson. When half the conference vehemently doesn't want you, there's not much you can do.

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They tipped an ambulance. When you piss off a rival so much they refuse to play you for over a decade, you have a problem.

The issue with WVU fans started when they beat UGA in the Sugar Bowl. They legit thought they were a top 5 program in college football with White and Slaton. They thought they were Ohio State or Alabama. They were always passionate fans, but that win added an arrogance to it that manifested into "we are better than you, you aren't even close, we smoked an SEC team", etc. Rich Rod being a total dickhead added fuel to the fire. Then they smoked Oklahoma and they hung 70 points on Clemson in the orange bowl and that was peak asshole fandom. I went to morgantown before Vick and I went last year and never had any issues. The rich rod BCS bowl years? that was the prime worst and it was because they were winning- not just their standard fans.

They were throwing batteries at fans in the 90s. I was watched people throw empty(i assume) beer cans at the MVs in '97.

The issue with WVU (where both my parents and 3/4 of my grandparents recieved BS and advanced degrees) is that their charter says they have to accept any West Virginian. So they get a bunch of people only there for the party until they fallout. This really hurts their academic numbers and rankings. They have more rhode scholars that every land grant university not named Wisconsin. Which is an order of magniture more than VT has had. The people that actually graduate are quite good. And some of the nicest people. They would be 100% ranked higher if not for their huge drop out rates.

Then there are the fans that never went or just went to party. Some of these are really nice chill people, some aren't, and they all drink.

In '99 they were on the best behavior because playboy ranked them the #1 party school in 98 and you saw the backlash of the huge crackdown that the university and the town imposed. They then didn't want to pay for all the policing so it got bad again with RichRod and they were the#1 school again in 08, so they cracked down again.

Louisville has unlimited money and a top 10 hoops program historically... those 2 reasons are why they are in the ACC

So following up on this, here's the original source from the WSJ: https://graphics.wsj.com/table/NCAA_2019

These valuations were calculated after the 2018 fiscal year (meaning June 30th 2018)

I'm not sure how much these can change in a 4 year period, but it's worth noting that in June 2018, most people still thought the Fuente hire was the best hire of the past decade. Since then, VT has gone about .500.

So apply the appropriate grain of salt here.

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Reapply Pry being the new toy though. Also new fundraising. All comes out in the wash.

Not really... it's not like everyone is staying static and we're moving up...

For example, Miami has had a huge influx of cash in the last two years; when we hired Pry we became the 3rd(?) highest paid staff in the ACC. When Miami hired Cristobal, they reportedly surpassed Clemson as the #1 highest paid staff in the ACC.

All that to say... A lot can shift in 4 years.

Edit to clarify: I'm not suggesting that VT suddenly went from the 6th highest valued non-SEC/B10 program to the 15th highest value. Just pointing out that (a) these rankings aren't up to date, (b) there have been non-uniform changes over the past 4 years, and, to that end, (c) every school has a different situation.

I do believe that VT is relatively well positioned, but as I said above, take this information with the appropriate sized grain of salt.

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Its not like we were world beating in 2018. The bottom might have fallen out lately because of Fuente, but there's a lot more that goes into the brand beyond just being good on the field. And in most ways, we're much better off the field now than we were back then.

Also, COVID happened and that put a big hold on any kind of realistic valuations for a few years. This is probably the closest we'll get to what it actually is for a while.

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Zach Miller of Medium compiled a list of valuations last year and had us sitting at #28 overall and top 10 of non-aligned teams

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

So is anybody else expecting to see the PAC1? gobble up the Mountain West?

So is anybody else expecting to see the PAC1?

I read this as a complete sentence, and was wondering who you thought would be left behind. Cal?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I think we're more likely to see the Mountain West take over what's left of the Pac-12, including the name.

When the ACC added Pitt and Syracuse, my loyalty ended. Screw them. And then a 100% basketball only move adding Louisville. Icing on the cake is the same BS deal the big east had with ND. The only thing the ACC didn't do was add temple. Let's leave as soon as we can for a better deal.

To be fair, Louisville has been as competitive as any team not named Clemson in the ACC. Calling it a basketball only addition is a little much.

With that said being as competitive as any team not named Clemson in the ACC is pretty meh.

How competitive have they been absent Lamar Jackson?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

If they cared about football, they would have poached any one of 50 other schools - Lousiville was a basketball move

What 50 other schools were (a) football schools and (b) remotely close to the ACC's geographic footprint (that mattered at the time), and (c) would leave their conference for the ACC? WVU. Anddd App State?

Saying Louisville wasn't the obvious choice... That's some real revisionist history.

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I think I recall reading something once that said Louisville spends more on athletics than any other ACC school.

Per Andy Staples, Louisville is the 9th most valuable brand for tv viewership of the unaligned schools, and they didn't drop off much without Lamar Jackson.

VT is 13th, and behind Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, and UNC in the ACC. We SHOULD be fine to snag an invite but that's lower than I'd have expected.

I'd like to see that detailed analysis.

One very glaring issue I have with Andy's article is that it primarily focuses on tv ratings while never addressing the major issue that there are multiple games per year that are not viewable for people in Virginia due to the tv deals in place putting the games on channels that Virginians simply don't get.

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Didn't he say he didn't include ACC network?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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I imagine That was intentional, because the ACC doesn't generate enough viewership to be relevant to this conversation.

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Apparently they don't release it fully either.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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And the way he measured it was "most million-plus viewer games".

OK, it's not nothing, but it's also a very specific way of measuring, and highly influenced by your opponents.

The path to the playoffs for Florida, Penn State, and USC East is only getting more difficult. If I could wave a magic wand, bring these 3 plus ND into the ACC and renegotiate a much more attractive television deal. Not that those teams would ever give up what they have in the SEC and B1G, but it would make the ACC pretty viable.

Why would they take the significant money hit to do that?

Because they'd be giving up their current, and much larger, tv contracts.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

I think the logic here is that those 3 +ND would probably result in a new ACC tv contract good enough for there to not be a huge decrease in profits while offering a much more "winnable" conference.

It won't happen but I think that's the idea. Would be nice for us but that's fantasy land.

As Phantom stated, adding those teams to the ACC would generate a significantly better financial deal while simultaneously offering a competitive path to the championship. Florida, FSU, Miami, Clemson, USCe, UNC, NCSU, VT, PSU, and Pitt makes sense geographically and has enough star power to bring in much higher revenue. This expanded ACC would offer among the best in every major sport and be strong enough to stave off the constant progression towards super conferences that will soon stretch from Rutgers to USCw.

[Edit] And I agree that it would never happen. A few years ago, perhaps the ACC could have pulled it off, and we wouldn't be faced with the current situation.

Yeah, nobody is going to take a cut in revenues to join the ACC.

Someone needed to negotiate a better network deal in previous decades.

Owner of 440Sports and ESPNRadio host in Nashville, replying to Barrett Sallee of CBS sports. Steven Godfrey also said yesterday on a podcast that if he were the SEC brass in Birmingham, it would be VT and UNC no doubt. He even replied to the "fake scoop" about UVA today (below).

All of these make sense. ESPN would absolutely want UNC and VT in the SEC because it would expand the footprint of the SEC Network.

And Godfrey is 100% dead ass correct about what will happen if UNC or VT try to leave without NCSU and UVa in tow. The state legislatures would block the move unless there was already a standing agreement to get them into the other conference. Everyone keeps talking about Clemson and FSU to the SEC, but the real move that I could see happen first is UNC, NCSU, VT, and UVa. They get the markets they don't have on lock, they solidify their footprint, and then they worry about which schools out there can help bolster the brand (such ass FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc).

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Exactly. Also starting to think Clemson and FSU aren't the go to targets for this next wave of SEC expansion. Again, no new footprint/tv market to tap into and likely heavily opposed by Florida, South Carolina, Georgia. Adding the VA and NC schools however makes a ton of sense.

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Basically, if the Big Ten takes UNC and UVa, and the SEC doesn't move on VT or NCSU, then ESPN effectively loses coverage in NC and Virginia (the #9 and #12 most populous states) to FOX. That is a big deal to ESPN and absolutely worth forcing the SEC to take on those schools. It might not necessarily increase profits for ESPN, but it would prevent them from losing a decent chunk (18 million customers combined).

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Yeah this the tweet that stood out to me in that thread. It makes incredible sense especially with how little effort they put into the ACCN. They shore up the SECN and send interns to cover the rest of the games.

This perspective and analogy is excellent. Makes me feel better about our chances of landing in either superconference.

B1G is likely completely focused on Notre Dame right now. I can't imagine ND could stay independent if things keep moving to two superconferences. The B1G is clearly the better fit, geographically, culturally and academically for them.

The real question here as explained in the tweet, will SEC want all the NC/VA schools or would they be ok splitting them with the B1G?

As long as we land in either league, I don't care. If I had choice, I'd rather travel visit SEC schools for games vs B1G. Some cool college towns up North but I prefer warm weather and southern accents over sub freezing temps and yankee hospitality.

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And remember, we already know that ESPN is swinging the big dick when it comes to all these moves being made. They're the ones that worked behind the scenes to get Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC that kicked this whole thing off. And they're the ones who the SEC has to negotiate with to get their next tv deal.

Do you really think ESPN is going to want the SEC to prioritize getting Clemson, FSU, and Miami over ensuring that they lock down the NC and VA markets? Especially when you know there's a good chance that the Big Ten is eyeballing UNC and UVa? Do you really think ESPN would be ok with losing those markets so that the SEC can add 3 schools that don't expand its own footprint?

No, absolutely not. If anything, it makes more sense that the UNC, VT, NCSU, and UVa will be the initial strike from the SEC or Big Ten because that's the tv market up for grabs. Once they're dealt with, then the SEC can look to FSU, Clemson, and Miami, who are really at no risk of going anywhere else.

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I got shit on, on Reddit for the exact same take. No one is actually thinking with their head right now. VT + NC State go to SEC and UVA + UNC to B1G and nothing else makes any sense all things considered.

And that is ONLY if the legislatures of NC and VA allow that to happen. Else, VT/UVa and UNC/NCSU are are going as package deals, possibly all together in the same move to the same conference.

It actually would make a hell of a lot of sense for the Big Ten to take that swing before any other move is made. They already know that, if ND moves its to the B1G. They also know that Oregon and Washington are absolutely desperate and have no choice but to wait it out, as its unlikely the SEC would want two extreme northwest schools. And, most importantly, its a move that FOX would love because it would steal the biggest available market away from ESPN, hurting their competition while actively building their own brand. NC (10,807,000) and VA (8,638,000) combined (19,445,000) is larger than adding NY (19,223,000). It would be a big fucking deal if the Big Ten could lock it down and keep it away from the SEC.

And this is also why its not going to be a big deal if those schools are a package deal. The market is big enough that you're not going to let it slip through just because you have to take VT or NCSU with UVa or UNC (Big Ten). Likewise, the SEC isn't going to say no if the governments of NC and VA force UNC and VT to take State and UVa with them.

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Yep, I know for sure UVA and VT can't part if either is left in the dark. No idea about NC politics but likely the same. This combined with UNC and UVA being the AAU schools (and rivals) and NC State + VT being the football schools, well it just makes sense. I would be absolutely blown away if UNC and UVA went to the SEC especially not bringing their state school with them. However, crazier things have happened.

I mean the commonwealth already strong armed UVa into getting us into the ACC, there's no way they same legislature would allow them to go to the SEC without forcing them to bring us along as part of the agreement.

NC has the same policy. In fact, its probably even messier in NC because they're all a part of the same university system that's controlled by the state.

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All of this is going to be so much messier than the rest of college ball is ready for.

And to make things more interesting, the state legislature in Washington has already raised a bill that would make it illegal for Washington and Washington State to be in separate conferences. So that throws another wrench in the plans to get Washington into the B1G.

Have to think Oregon will likely see the same with Oregon State as well as Arizona State and Arizona.

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Oregon is proposing it. Who knows though.

I think UNC is the biggest non-SEC/B10 brand behind ND. Either conference will gladly take them.

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Question: Why is everybody so focused on TV markets when, while they were the target for the last major expansion scenario, the target for this expansion scenario is marquee games?

I swear I read something (last year maybe?) that analyzed what drove TV contracts, and the author's determined that although cable subscribers are footing the bill right now, in the future due to cord-cutting they won't be as important a driver to revenues as would be the ad revenues from marquee games. Those type of games draw so much more national eyeballs vs regional eyeballs, that the ad revenue from those marquee games are much more important. And that any future realignment would be driven by the acquisition of those type of games.

Which is what we've seen over the last year. Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC is going to add 8-10 of these marquee games to the SEC's coffers. Ditto USC and UCLA to the B1G. I don't think that any of VT/UVA/UNC/NCSU are going to add that kind of impact, at least in the short term, and maybe not in the long term (though I have my hopes). Clemson? Yes. Florida State? Maybe. Miami? Possibly. But VT/UVA/UNC/NCSU are not the first targets in raiding the ACC, for sure.

The eyeballs in Virginia and North Carolina are important, but they are secondary to increasing inventory of marquee-type games.

Anyways, it was a while since I read that, but it made an impact at the time, as it was another shift in the drivers for conference realignment. Does anybody remember reading something like that? My google-fu is not strong today.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

If you're going for long term ratings stability, you go for the big brands in the biggest available markets.

If you're going for short term ratings spikes, you go for the biggest names in the current climate.

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It boils down to the fact that there are a ton of viewers in VA and NC who would be watching SEC content if those schools were members. Which means yes, ESPN would pay more to those schools than they currently have to pay them under the ACC deal, but those viewers would be shifting to an SEC game which commands higher ad revenue (bye bye Spurtle). Additionally, SEC network would command more revenue in VA and NC than currently because it would shift from being an out of market area to in market. So they could potentially double or triple what they are currently making off of viewers in VA and NC who already have SEC network. ESPN would have to pay the VA and NC schools more but they would also receive more revenue and would prevent Fox from scooping up current ESPN properties if the B1G expands. Essentially the SEC would preempt the B1G from taking the VA/NC markets.

The whole realignment for marquee matchups concept makes sense and I get it. But it's impossible to have huge matchups every single week across the board unless you have major conference contraction, and you can't chase only the teams that are hot now because rankings change and a team can change quickly in college. Basically IMO, you want big time football schools (particularly big state schools) in new territories that bring a ton of alumni, student, and fan eyeballs to your conference product. That's the biggest problem with the ACC, is that we don't have enough of the Clemsons, VTs, NC States, FSUs and too many Wakes, Syracuse's, BCs, and Dukes.

And Godfrey is 100% dead ass correct about what will happen if UNC or VT try to leave without NCSU and UVa in tow.

Not necessarily. If UNC/VT are headed to one conference, that means there is an out to the GOR, and NCSU/UVA would be valuable properties to the other P2 conference.

(You can parse UNC/VT/NCSU/UVA any way you want.)

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

(such ass FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc)

You got that right

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So let's say the SEC schools with the ACC rivals are still dead set against bringing those teams in. Florida, SC, Kentucky, and Georgia are a group of 4 votes. Right now, that's 4 out of 16. Bring in any combo of VA/NC schools, and that voting block is 4 out of 18 or 20.

So yeah, bring in more schools, dilute that voting block, and then overrule them to bring in the rivals from the ACC.

Side thought, if the B1G takes UVA/VT and UNC/NCSU does that break the ND agreement with the ACC so they can also freely join the B1G?

Going to get political and say if you live in Virginia it's time to call your representative and let them know college sports alignment is something you care about. My understanding is the legislature basically bullied the ACC into taking VT during the last realignment round and will likely have something to say this round. Lots of articles ID UVA as the premier school to take in the commonwealth and we really don't want them pulling in the big TV $$ while VT is stuck in a crumbling ACC.

Lots of those articles are written by people of the land. The common clay of the new eest. you know... Morons.

I have yet to see an article from someone credible talking about UVA, I have seen ESPN staff say that VT would be there instead of UVA. This is about 2 things, money and control. UVA doesn't help with the money. VT goes to bowl games with the best of them. Second tier bowl attendance saves the conference money. VT has a strong base in DC metro and VA Beach, so they are good for TV deals.

Sure UVA is good for men's tennis and lacrosse, but that doesn't help anything. No one cares.

The only way that UVA is a take is that the Big1G and SEC are going for 32 teams each so that they can create and alliance and tell the NCAA to shove it, in which case VT is already in.

But feel free to write your representatives to let them know that you think playing UVA is overrated as they have a terrible record against VT Football, they hurt our strength of schedule.

UVA is an AAU school, which the Big Ten specifically cares about. This isn't a 5 alarm fire, but the dry brush is starting to smoke and it's better to be prepared.

I have (extremely minor) Richmond sauces and realignment chatter is starting to pick up. Now is 100% the time to make it clear VT alumni want to be in a top tier athletic conference.

I'm just about fatigued with the realignment discussions. A lot of people on Twitter who have no idea what they are talking about. Unfortunately I think we are at a standstill for now until ND makes a move, which could be a while. ACC schools definitely want to make a move and are likely researching ways to defeat the GoR but no one really wants to make the first move at this point IMO.

When it's all said and done, I don't see any way that VT is left out of realignment. VA and NC are too valuable to both the Big Ten and SEC. I do feel that both UVA and VT will be included but maybe not in the same conference. I think UVA to the Big Ten makes a ton more sense than the SEC. UVA fans talking about their championships in rowing and tennis and academic excellence for reasons they might get into the SEC is laughable. No one outside of their miserable fan base cares about non rev NCAA titles. They may be the "flagship" state school but VT is a far better tv draw and has a bigger alumni base and presence in the major VA tv markets. VT is the big state school with the football culture, and that's what the SEC is built on. The SEC isn't going to add another Vanderbilt that brings nothing as far as football culture and following to the premier football league. Again, sorry Hoos, but no one except for yourselves care about the non rev titles.

UNC may be more culturally aligned with UVA and the Big Ten mold as well, but they unlike UVA have a massive national brand and rabid in state following. I could see the SEC having interest in them more so than UVA. At the end of the day I still think UVA and UNC to the Big Ten, and VT and NC State to the SEC makes too much sense for myriad reasons. But I wouldn't count out the SEC trying to make a big run at UNC either.

I think we are at a standstill for now until ND makes a move, which could be a while.

100% agree

When it's all said and done, I don't see any way that VT is left out of realignment. VA and NC are too valuable to both the Big Ten and SEC.

So how many current ACC schools do you think get left behind? How many schools do you think the SEC/B10 take?

This is the crux of the issue - right now there are 32 teams (B10+SEC) who will be a level above everyone else. Just not sure how much space is left.

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I think the next move is for both the Big Ten and SEC to take four more to get to 20 each. It works out too neatly to have five team geographic pods and build a playoff structure out of the two super conferences. I think ND eventually goes to the Big Ten, they then grab UVA and UNC to get the mid Atlantic presence, and then they grab another west coast school like Oregon. I think the SEC grabs VT and NCSU, along with Clemson and FSU. Miami is interesting because they have the brand but they're a small private school that doesn't have a massive fanbase/following except when they are winning big a lot of people jump on the bandwagon. If the SEC went to 24 I could see them in easily, but I think 20 might be the first goal. If you assume the SEC takes a VA and NC school, between Clemson, FSU, and Miami I think the first two fit the profile of an SEC school far better.

I think the next move is for both the Big Ten and SEC to take four more to get to 20 each.

This is the question. VT will make a top 40. Idk if VT will make a top 32.

Edit: changed 36 to 32, 'they' to VT

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I feel 18 team conferences just wouldn't make sense. I think we can all agree ND to the Big Ten is the next big piece of the puzzle. Who else does the Big Ten bring in of enough value to pair with them? I still think they would value the VA and NC territory too much because of untapped revenue potential, and I don't see them taking one state without the other. I can't see them taking UVA without UNC and vice versa.

For the SEC, let's assume just for brand name appeal they want to bring in Clemson and FSU first. You would probably have UF, UGA, and South Carolina uneasy about those additions without getting something else. Plus it brings you more potential for marquee games in the SEC catalogue, but there's untapped markets in VA and NC that I think will be of big interest. Just with cable subscriptions and SEC network going from out of market to in market in VA/NC, that is potentially in the $100 million dollar range or more of additional revenue. Online search shows that the SEC network out of market rate is $0.25/month and $1.30-$1.40 in market. That is potentially a ton of money, not even factoring in the additional ad revenue VA and NC teams could bring as part of the SEC catalogue. At worst case, those two would likely keep the school payouts at break even and likely increase the overall pool, before even factoring in Clemson and FSU for big game draw appeal.

Idk if they will make a top 32.

I do know. They don't.

Onward and upward

If tech gets asked to join either conference, they must pull the trigger and join. Drag out court until others defect, then pay the fine once you get it reduced in litigation.
Please dont get left out and end up playing liberty, jmu and odu, along with the rest of the weak acc for perpetuity

Please dont get left out and end up playing liberty, jmu and odu, along with the rest of the week acc for perpetuity

Wait don't we already do this? Hahaha

(only half-kidding)

I personally would like to go to the BIG because I think it'll help our academic brand significantly, keep all non rev sports, while also not diluting football and basketball. Unfortunately for me, I think uva is more attractive than we are in non rev sports, basketball, and academics.

I think UNC, uva, nd, gt to BIG would be a dream for them.

I think nc state, Clemson, fsu, VT to sec will happen. I think sec will also expand West with a few teams to capture the entire south.

Soon enough the money between the big and sec will essentially be the same so as long as we get picked up by one we'll be fine.

I honestly don't think either the B1G or the SEC is going to do any more expanding until they have a few years under their belt as 16 member teams. That gives them a feel for the big divisions, and also will wait until the current playoffs are a little closer to expiring.

If either of those conferences go to 20, football and basketball scheduling just got much harder. In a 20 team conference, would you play the other 9 teams in your division? Unless you are going to a 10 conference game schedule, you would never play the other division teams. Unless you set up your own bowl games to play cross -division. That would get them sold out.

But I can't see the SEC going to 10 division games. They like their rivalry games with out of conference schools and their pathetic OOC schedules most of the time.

The key to bigger conferences is smaller divisions. If we consolidate into two superconferences that each have smaller divisions, then we expand the CFP to include enough slots for all of the division winners, and the conference championship games will be the semi-finals.

I think 20 makes scheduling easier. For football, 4 5-team divisions. You play the 4 others in your division each year and all 5 from one of the others (9 games). You'd play every conference team at least once every four years. For basketball, you play each team once and one rival twice (20 games).

I don't know what a Hokie is, but God is one of them!

Is there anything that would prevent the SEC from going to just 18 teams instead of 20 or 24? I feel like any projections where VT makes it to the SEC are based on the SEC taking 4 teams. I could see them just taking Clemson and UNC though and us getting screwed lol.

I am with you at 18, play the 8 other teams in your division, and a rotating opponent from the other division.

For TV money, Clemson gets them nothing. They already have South Carolina. After Clemson just lost their two best coaches (I am including Dabo in that list), I am not sure if they will be able to reload. Clemson might be about to slide to the middle of the Atlantic pack.

UNC makes sense as the are the bigger brand then NCSU. But I am not sure UNC jumps, they might be holding out for the B1G or an improved ACC. They might have enough of a big ego to think they are better than a bottom dweller athletically in the SEC. In which case NCSU, wouldn't even let the phone call go long enough for them to finish their introduction before saying yes.

They already have South Carolina. After Clemson just lost their two best coaches (I am including Dabo in that list),

Elliot and Vennables? For a second my brain read that as Dabo left Clemson and I was soo confused.

I probably could have been clearer. But yes, I meant Elliot and Venerables were the best coaches at Clemson. Dabo is a heck of a talker and recruiter, but I think they were the power behind the throne.

Venerables, yes, helluva coach. Elliott always seemed like he was handed the keys to the Ferrari and need to just keep it on the road. And that'd not to say he was a bad coach, I just think the drop off from Venerables is going to be way more.

Venerables is held in quite high esteem by definition

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

18 teams makes scheduling a tad unwieldy. 16/20/24 is nice for pod/protected rivalry scheduling.

That said, I'm sure they could get creative and make 18 work if they wanted to.

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Yeah 16/20/24 does make it much nicer. They're already working with 14 currently though, so I'm sure 18 would be just fine.

yeah, except their solution to 14 teams is to go out and get two more to get to 16 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Onward and upward

18 makes 2 divisions of 9 teams. with 20 you could go 4 divisions of 5 teams.

It doesn't make scheduling that unwieldy at all, unless you're absolutely hell bent on sticking to a one division model, which in my opinion is stupid at anything more than 8 or 10 teams (yes, including the new ACC model). And all this does is just promote a natural expansion of the playoffs. 4 divisions of 5 teams? Great, the division champions face off in a Final Four of the Conference Playoff. The champion of the SEC plays the champion of the Big Ten in the P2 Championship Game.

Oh, you want to account for Wild Cards? Ok, 5 divisions of 4 teams and the top 3 teams that aren't a division champion get included for an 8 team playoff. And suddenly you are looking at a 16 team football playoff to determine a national champion.

With this scenario you could go so far as to increase to 5 divisions of 5 teams (25 teams per conference). Division champions and 3 Wild Cards proceed to the tournament. Conference Champions play each other in the National Championship.

50 schools included in the P2. Clear path to a National Championship. Regional rivalries and divisions dominate the regular season schedule.

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I hear that The fictional school where Indiana Jones taught is about to join a combined Pac-12/Big 12 and more moves are coming soon.

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

... and you'll NEVER GUESS what UCF is considering!

Also, HOGWARTS brings their 'A' game...

But Hogwarts is English, so they'll just be thrashed by former colonies like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in every sport they ever invented.

Right now the SEC and the B1G are playing a little game. They are both weighing the cost and benefits of trying to grab the NC and VA markets, likely not because they want any of the schools, but they don't want the other to have them. Hopefully the two conferences are not working together as competition here would be in our best interest.

I am not sure what to do with my hands now

Just some rough math using figures on the webs, but the SEC network subscriber fee in VA alone would almost pay for VT's annual payout if the goal is $100 mil per team. Current out of market SEC rate is 25 cents, in market $1.30-$1.40. Online estimates show cable subscribers in VA to be anywhere from 5-6.5 mil so let's use 5 to be conservative. An extra $1.05 per subscriber per month in Va is nearly $70 mil. That doesn't take into account increased ad revenue for VT games. Pairing VT and one NC school would easily surpass $200 mil in additional revenue. People say cable is a dying medium but that is some extremely significant cash on the table just for subscriber fees.

I guess the question then would be - is it worth it for one of the SEC/Big10 try to take all 4 VA/NC teams to keep them out of the hands of the other? Or do they negotiate a split? Because if VT and UVA end up in the same conference, then those figures essentially get cut in half. Would one conference be willing to forego the $100 mil per team plateau if it meant the other potentially loses out on getting those same subscription fees?

I'm here for the memes, I just stay for the football.

Current out of market SEC rate is 25 cents, in market $1.30-$1.40.

Can you elaborate on/source this? I've never we heard of an in/out of network rate for carrier fees.

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I don't have a source but it seems to make sense to me. Eyeballs watching the SEC in an SEC market probably have higher ad value than eyeballs watching that are not in an SEC market. I don't really know how it all works so I may be way off base.

Godfrey mentioned in the latest Patreon show that the Big Ten will get like a dollar more per subscriber per month for BTN in California now that there will be in state teams. I would guess the SEC has a similar agreement.

Thanks for providing this

Knowing it had an army of passionate viewers up its sleeve, the SEC Network negotiated an aggressive subscriber fee of $1.30 or $1.40, depending on the provider, for its 30 million in-market subscribers. That's significantly higher than either the Big Ten or Pac-12 network rates. When adding a $0.25 out-of-market rate (outside SEC footprint), the network has an average subscriber fee of $0.66 in the 66 million subscriber homes it averaged in its first year, according to SNL Kagan.

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