Inspired by a piece Andy Bitter wrote for the Athletic, I thought it would be interesting to see other teams who have drastically improved between a coach's first year and second year, and see if there were any common trends across (a) staff changes, (b) QB changes, or (c) used the portal. Here's a quick and dirty list:
Team | First Season | Year 1 Record | Year 2 Record | Staff Changes? | Starting QB Change? | Transfers In |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina | 1999 | 0-11 | 8-4 | DL | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
Auburn | 1999 | 5-6 | 9-4 | None | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
Oklahoma State | 2005 | 4-7 | 7-6 | None | Y* | N/A (pre-portal) |
UNC | 2007 | 4-8 | 8-5 | DC | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
Mississippi State | 2009 | 5-7 | 9-4 | DC, DL, LB | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
Washington State | 2012 | 3-9 | 6-7 | LB, IWR | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
NC State | 2013 | 3-9 | 8-5 | CB | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
Iowa State | 2016 | 3-9 | 8-5 | None | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
Baylor | 2017 | 1-11 | 6-7 | None | N | N/A (pre-portal) |
Cincinatti | 2018 | 4-8 | 11-2 | DL, WR | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
SMU | 2018 | 5-7 | 10-3 | OL | Y | N/A (pre-portal) |
Baylor | 2020 | 2-7 | 12-2 | OC, WR, OL | Y | 5 |
Michigan State | 2020 | 2-5 | 11-2 | LB, Staff Shuffle | Y | 14 |
Arkansas | 2020 | 3-7 | 9-4 | WR, LB, OL, DL | Y* | 7 |
Ole Miss | 2020 | 5-5 | 10-3 | DL, OL, TE, STC | N | 2 |
Mississippi State | 2020 | 4-7 | 7-6 | None | N* | 7 |
Kansas | 2021 | 2-10 | 6-6 | WR, Staff Shuffle | N* | 1 |
Illinios | 2021 | 5-7 | 8-4 | OC | Y | 1 |
Virginia Tech | 2022 | 3-8 | 6-6 | OL, RB, QB | Yes | 6 |
At a high level, it appears that - with the exception of Matt Rhule and Mike Leach - at least one thing has to change around your staff, QB, or roster.
Callouts and Caveats:
- I tried to limit this to P5 teams - I didn't think it was that useful to include Scott Frost at UCF, for example, given how poorly he performed at Nebraska. I chose to include Fickel's Cincy team and Dyke's SMU team, just because both of those coaches have made a CFB playoff
- Be warned that there is A LOT of missing context here. For example:
- With staff changes, it's not clear if someone was fired or hired away.
- It's not clear how good the transfer portal players were
- It's not clear if the schedule was easier from year 1 to year 2
- An asterisk in the 'QB Change?' column means that significant time was split between QBs in one of the years - could be due to injury, could be a 2 QB system
- 5 of these coaches had their first season during COVID... I'm sure that made their first season worst than it could have been.
I'm probably going to expand/iterate on this. I'd like to use some metric for strength of scheduel (an improved record could be due to a weaker schedule in year 2) and change in team talent composite rather than just transfers in/out (this would account for recruiting wins as well).
Anyways, I think it's an interesting high level view of year over year change within a program. Makes me a little concerned that we aren't making enough change, but we'll see...
Enjoy.
Comments
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.