Offseason: Pick a team to go 4-8 --> 8-4

One of my favorite offseason games: Pick a team that went 4-8 (or worse) in 2022 that will go 8-4 (or better) in 2023.

Here's a list of those teams:

Team 2022 Record
Colorado 1-11
Massachusetts 1-11
Northwestern 1-11
USF 1-11
New Mexico 2-10
Nevada 2-10
Akron 2-10
Stanford 3-9
Boston College 3-9
Old Dominion 3-9
Louisiana Tech 3-9
Central Michigan 3-9
Charlotte 3-9
Arkansas State 3-9
Northern Illinois 3-9
Colorado State 3-9
Arizona State 3-9
Virginia Tech 3-8
Hawaii 3-9
Virginia 3-8
Temple 3-9
Indiana 4-8
Navy 4-8
UL-Monroe 4-8
Florida International 4-8
Rutgers 4-8
California 4-8
Texas State 4-8
Georgia State 4-8
Nebraska 4-8
Iowa State 4-8

Winner gets bragging rights or something

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.


Colorado is the easy choice here right

They have a tough schedule to do so:
Colorado State
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington State

Another white bronco? The first one didn't go too far.

I'll take a stab at this

TCU (Coin Flip) - extremely senior/6th year heavy team, can they replicate that success? They were also beneficiaries of some extreme luck and were just as close to 7-5 as they were 12-1
Nebraska(W) - don't think Rhule fixes this year 1 at least he historically hasn't
Colorado State(W) - easy dub
Oregon(W) - at this point Nix is who he is, pick machine or prime Mahomes. Oregon has also lost some talent in this off season
USC(L) - that defense is trash, how good will Colorado's O be? Who knows
Arizona State(W) - dub
Stanford(W) - dub
UCLA(W) - can't rememeber if DTR is staying another year, anyways UCLA is hit or miss
Oregon State(L) - heavy R-Jr/Senior team, not convinced this fixes DJU's issue either
Arizona(W) - dub
Washington State(W) - dub
Utah(L) - Utes likely the most put together team if Rising comes back full strength

I think they're likely 7-5 but have a good shot at 8-4/9-3

They'd be my choice for having a big time upset over a team they definitely shouldn't beat, but their schedule will be tough to win 8 games with, even with Prime's rapid roster turnover.

Agree. They'll catch someone off guard later in the season, but they are not going to have a 7-game turnaround in year 1 of the Prime era.

They'll be better but there is a 0% chance they win more than 5 games this year

Gonna take a stab at this and say Virginia Tech. They're a no name school that's gonna surprise some folks this year.

What are our 2 extra losses? Recruiting? Retaining Bowen?

LOL - I goofed there. Fixed.

Twitter me

Here's our 2023 Schedule, for those who want to weigh in our chances of being this team:

ODU (Home)
Purdue (Home)
Rutgers (Away)
Marshall (Away)

-- dates not set for these

Boston College (Away)
Pitt (Home)
FSU (Away)
Louisville (Away)
NC State (Home)
Syracuse (Home)
Wake Forest (Home)

-- last game set for Nov 25th

Virginia (Away)

In my opinion this is a more difficult schedule than previous years. 10 P5 games, though not the toughest 10, means fewer gimmes. This is a much more exciting schedule though, so I would prefer them to look more like this in the future. It will be weird to not play Miami for the first time since I've been watching college football.

Man, none of these games feel like gimmes. I could see this team being much improved from last year, but still getting 4ish wins.

Chance of winning, pure gut not science involved:

  • BC, UVA, and ODU - 80% chance of winning --> 2.4 wins
  • Syracuse, Marshall, Rutgers - 60% chance of winning --> 1.8 wins
  • Purdue, Louisville, Wake (without Sam Hartman), NC St (without Devin Leary) - 50% chance of winning --> 2 wins
  • Pitt - 35% chance of winning --> .35 wins
  • FSU - 10% chance of winning --> .1 wins

That's a total of 6.65 wins... which feels high. I don't know what to think of Purdue (switching from an offensive to a defensive coach) or Louisville (upgrading their coach). Wake is a tough opponent to prepare for. I don't have a good read on Rutgers; I assume they are better than their record, and their division is insanely tough. I (still) underestimate Pitt each season. I'm high on FSU this season.

Feels like our ceiling is 7 wins, our floor is 3 wins, and we'll get 5ish?

Twitter me

I haven't taken too deep of a look into our potential record for next year, but this sounds about right at the moment. We still have spring practice, second transfer window, and fall camp to bring some potential shake-ups into the equation.

Im putting VT's chances at beating ODU in football at 15% until we actually do it. Same category as BC hoops on the road. Don't care what the spread or record is.

I know its a small sample size, but I get the feeling that ODU on the road is going to be just like all of our trips to Pitt. We have a better than average chance of beating them when we get them in Blacksburg, but on the road we rarely show-up, and when we do something that nobody ever expects happens and the game tilts entirely against the Hokies. Since '93 we've managed to win 4 out of 12 games in Pitt... and since my time as a Hokie ('98) neither of those 2 road wins were easy.

EDIT: and yes, I'm with you as well. Until our program proves otherwise, I'm never going to assume a victory (let alone an easy one) against ODU.

I'll be at the Rutgers game pretty much assuming we lose. like many schiano teams -- stout defense and piddling offense. They get absolutely wrecked with their conference schedule every year going up against teams that are way more talented than them. watched the Rutgers/OSU game where Miyan Williams rushed to a 21/189/5 stat line -- a lot of times the defense had a defender lined up with him 1-on-1 and he just made the unblocked guy miss or ran right through/past them. Against us it will probably be a rock fight and we're away. Can our offense make those kinds of plays? Can we avoid mistakes on defense and special teams?

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I can't really disagree with your method, but just assuming we've improved, ODU is a win, NC State is a win, BC and UVA should be locks, Rutgers should be a win but who knows.

On the other side FSU and Pitt are probably losses

So 5-10 wins, but I wouldn't be buying 10 wins or even 8 or 9 at this point. This all hinges on us being better than this season.

I feel like we should be able to get to 6 wins. I just couldn't tell you which six I'd actually pick us to win at this point. Although I feel like a worst case scenario is 2-2 in non-con games.

A lot of it is unfamiliarity with the teams, since we basically have an Atlantic schedule this year. A decent chunk of it is not knowing how our opponents might be improving or un-improving.

Although having Pitt and Syracuse at home greatly increase our chances in both of those games.

I'm going to go with Navy.

  • Win every home game (Wagner, North Texas, UAB, South Florida, East Carolina) + @ Temple and @ Charlotte
  • Split vs Army/ @ Air Force
  • Lose to SMU, ND, Memphis.

Twitter me

I gotta go VT. Colorado isn't going to turn it around in 1 year.

Honestly, all of these are a stretch to make that kind of turnaround. That said, I would prioritize teams from the MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA to have that kind of year. Using absolutely zero insight, no knowledge of current recruiting classes, and based solely off of last year's performances I would say the following:

- Northern Illinois
- Texas St.
- Iowa St.
- Georgia St.

I would love to add VT to this list, but I'm not putting my O&M colored glasses on. Still too many question marks all over the field and until Bowen can call a complete game I'm not going to convince myself we'll do anything better than a .500 record this year.

Easy to pick up 8 wins on the way to being 15-0.

going waaaayyyy out on a limb and saying UMass -- got a new defensive minded head coach who pulled in a bunch of P5 players from the portal, incl several who followed him from Arizona and a handful of former blue chip recruits (incl taisun phommachanh, mark pope)

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

counter point: scared money dont make money

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

You should take that take to Vegas.

Twitter me