Georgia Tech Advanced Stats Recap
If you've checked out on Virginia Tech this season, I don't blame you. This is a bad team that somehow struggles to reach the incredibly low expectations set before them each week, save for a miraculous win on the road against NC State. Hell, there isn't even a vent thread for the game yesterday, a testament to the apathy that has consumed this program and fan base.
Yesterday's 35-20 loss at Georgia Tech somehow never managed to qualify as "garbage time" but never felt competitive at any point lest you are an out-of-state gambler who bet the Hokies at +13.5.
From an advanced metrics standpoint, this game borders on the worst loss of the season. By expected points per play, this game was the fourth worst of the season ahead of only Old Dominion and Vanderbilt.
However, by net success rate, it was the lowest of the season; meaning that Georgia Tech didn't have the big chunk plays on offense like ODU or Vandy, but was consistently churning good yards and first downs throughout the game.
Virginia Tech couldn't stop anything yesterday, allowing success on 66.7% of Georgia Tech's passing attempts and 54.8% of their rushing attempts. There was only one quarter where the defense was able to generate unsuccessful plays on more than half the attempts (the second quarter, where GT was successful 47.6% of the time).
The ironic takeaways is that the games where the Virginia Tech offense has looked the best are the three worst defensive performances of the season. At least in the case of Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, a lot of those offensive numbers are driven by score effects (Old Dominion mostly in garbage time, unlike yesterday).
Has Virginia Tech gotten any better under interim head coach Philip Montgomery?
It is a bit of a mixed bag. By offensive success rate, the offense has gotten marginally worse, dropping 44.6% success rate under Pry to 37.2% under Montgomery. However, while on a down-to-down clip the offense has gotten worse, it has generated more expected points per play under Montgomery, increasing to 0.193 from 0.105 under Pry. At the same time, the defense has improved by success rate and expected points allowed per play. Under Pry the defense allowed successful plays 50.9% of the time, and allowing.454 EPA per play. In the last three FBS games under Montgomery, the defense has allowed 46.3% successful plays, and allowed 0.311 expected points per play.
Here are the teams each coach faced, and their adjusted EPA for offense and defense (from GameOnPaper).
Pry:
- South Carolina: 76th in offense, 40th in defense, 57th in net
- Vanderbilt: 4th in offense, 87th in defense, 22nd in net
- Old Dominion: 23rd in offense, 43rd in defense, 24th in net
- Average: 34th in offense, 57th in defense, 34th in net
Montgomery:
- NC State: 24th in offense, 104th in defense, 53rd in net
- Wake Forest: 98th in offense, 27th in defense, 62nd in net
- Georgia Tech: 60th in offense, 54th in defense, 61st in net
- Average: 61st in offense, 62 in defense, 59th in net
Montgomery has faced a slightly easier schedule than Pry did before he was fired, though you could also make a point that Pry's number may be inflating Vanderbilt and Old Dominion to an extent. At the same time, Montgomery has had to deal with opt-outs (potentially a net benefit?) and injuries that have occurred to some key players like Quentin Reddish, Christian Ellis, Jaden Keller, and Montavious Cunningham.
Where does this leave Virginia Tech?
According to my unadjusted numbers the Hokies now have the 77th ranked offense and the 134th ranked defense (ahead of only Georgia Southern and the Air Force Academy) according to EPA per play. That equals out to a net ranking of 126th in the country. By success and explosiveness, Virginia Tech is ranked 82nd and 66th respectively. However, on defense they rank 116th and 129th in the same categories. Their net success rate ranks 112th and their net explosive rank is 121st.
When adjusting for opponents, from GameOnPaper, the Hokies rank 58th in offense, 132nd on defense, and 110th overall.
Comments
As Richard Pryor once noted, "That's right, we're bad...."
And that is after the marginal improvement.
I'm curious if part of the decrease in offensive performance is due to our OC being the HC now and not really having an OC.
That is tough to say. I think there is an argument that Pry's numbers we're inflated by ODU playing prevent defense for a whole half and allowing a lot of positive plays with no risk.
Overall, the offense has done better getting chunk plays under Montgomery but isn't as consistent down to down. If anything there is an argument that the last three weeks they've started to figure out a running game, especially when Stewart is healthy - they just don't use the backs enough. Every game starts super pass heavy and then evens out, which is not and has never been Drones strong suit.
*edit: I do think there is an argument that Monty is basically playing HC, OC, playcaller, and primary QB coach which is a problem.
"Monty is basically playing HC, OC, playcaller, and primary QB coach"
Does he have a choice as interim HC? He's doing what he can w a bad roster. Im not saying he's our guy long term, but he has few options.
And Drones is horrible, offensive stats going down are because teams have more ideological of him. They're DC is laughing as he sets up to slaughter us.
Totally agree there is nothing to be done at this point, but I've never been comfortable with Crist as the QB coach. He's never been a QB coach before he came here, where he did it under an OC who had never done it. But he was a GA in 1994-95 with Pry and coached again together in Louisiana. Even now he's still listed as co-QB coach, with no one listed sharing the title!
It was malpractice to not bring in a real QB coach in the off chance Pry got fired early and you don't turn to JC Price again. Though to be fair, that was far from the only wrong decision this off-season.
There were no internal candidates because so many people are over their heads at their current positions.
Crist is essentially the QB coach. Montgomery spent some time with the QB's when he was the OC, along with Crist. But less time for that now that he's got HC responsibilities.
I am curious how much of the offensive decline can be attributed to the O line injuries. How different does this offense look with .5 more seconds per pass play?
I can't buy that the first three games were a harder schedule than the last three. Even with Wofford in there. GT is ranked 13th in the Country.
Wofford is not included in there, as this is only looking at results against FBS teams.
If you look at SP+ on ESPN the first three games were against #40, #19, and #69 respectively (average about 43rd). Last three have been against #66, #65, and #29 (average about 53rd).
I'm not saying there is a massive difference overall, as this schedule is definitely more difficult than I had anticipated coming into the year, but it was a tough start. Even ODU at #69 is significantly ahead of us at #86.
We are who we thought we were!
Its just crazy that we went from where we were under Bud to being the hands down worst defense in the country
I don't know man I've seen some really physical defense this year and some extremely hard hits. Yeah 99% of them are after the whistle and cost us another 15 yards but I'm not sure if that's relevant.
I was going to say that none of the coaches who replaced Bud had DC experience, but Justin Hamilton was DC at UVA-Wise and Siefkes at Wisconsin-Platteville and Wofford! (/s)