Sunday Morning Coming Down

Georgia Tech Advanced Stats Recap

If you've checked out on Virginia Tech this season, I don't blame you. This is a bad team that somehow struggles to reach the incredibly low expectations set before them each week, save for a miraculous win on the road against NC State. Hell, there isn't even a vent thread for the game yesterday, a testament to the apathy that has consumed this program and fan base.

Yesterday's 35-20 loss at Georgia Tech somehow never managed to qualify as "garbage time" but never felt competitive at any point lest you are an out-of-state gambler who bet the Hokies at +13.5.

From an advanced metrics standpoint, this game borders on the worst loss of the season. By expected points per play, this game was the fourth worst of the season ahead of only Old Dominion and Vanderbilt.

However, by net success rate, it was the lowest of the season; meaning that Georgia Tech didn't have the big chunk plays on offense like ODU or Vandy, but was consistently churning good yards and first downs throughout the game.

Virginia Tech couldn't stop anything yesterday, allowing success on 66.7% of Georgia Tech's passing attempts and 54.8% of their rushing attempts. There was only one quarter where the defense was able to generate unsuccessful plays on more than half the attempts (the second quarter, where GT was successful 47.6% of the time).

The ironic takeaways is that the games where the Virginia Tech offense has looked the best are the three worst defensive performances of the season. At least in the case of Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, a lot of those offensive numbers are driven by score effects (Old Dominion mostly in garbage time, unlike yesterday).

Has Virginia Tech gotten any better under interim head coach Philip Montgomery?

It is a bit of a mixed bag. By offensive success rate, the offense has gotten marginally worse, dropping 44.6% success rate under Pry to 37.2% under Montgomery. However, while on a down-to-down clip the offense has gotten worse, it has generated more expected points per play under Montgomery, increasing to 0.193 from 0.105 under Pry. At the same time, the defense has improved by success rate and expected points allowed per play. Under Pry the defense allowed successful plays 50.9% of the time, and allowing.454 EPA per play. In the last three FBS games under Montgomery, the defense has allowed 46.3% successful plays, and allowed 0.311 expected points per play.

Here are the teams each coach faced, and their adjusted EPA for offense and defense (from GameOnPaper).

Pry:

• South Carolina: 76th in offense, 40th in defense, 57th in net
• Vanderbilt: 4th in offense, 87th in defense, 22nd in net
• Old Dominion: 23rd in offense, 43rd in defense, 24th in net
• Average: 34th in offense, 57th in defense, 34th in net

Montgomery:

• NC State: 24th in offense, 104th in defense, 53rd in net
• Wake Forest: 98th in offense, 27th in defense, 62nd in net
• Georgia Tech: 60th in offense, 54th in defense, 61st in net
• Average: 61st in offense, 62 in defense, 59th in net

Montgomery has faced a slightly easier schedule than Pry did before he was fired, though you could also make a point that Pry's number may be inflating Vanderbilt and Old Dominion to an extent. At the same time, Montgomery has had to deal with opt-outs (potentially a net benefit?) and injuries that have occurred to some key players like Quentin Reddish, Christian Ellis, Jaden Keller, and Montavious Cunningham.

Where does this leave Virginia Tech?

According to my unadjusted numbers the Hokies now have the 77th ranked offense and the 134th ranked defense (ahead of only Georgia Southern and the Air Force Academy) according to EPA per play. That equals out to a net ranking of 126th in the country. By success and explosiveness, Virginia Tech is ranked 82nd and 66th respectively. However, on defense they rank 116th and 129th in the same categories. Their net success rate ranks 112th and their net explosive rank is 121st.

When adjusting for opponents, from GameOnPaper, the Hokies rank 58th in offense, 132nd on defense, and 110th overall.